Forum Replies Created
GameCard – Bedell pitched 30 2/3 innings. Struck out 36 and walked 3. ERA of 0.58.
Here’s a list of the top 20 players in the 2019 Cape Cod League, as rated by one source –
1.) Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State
2.) Austin Wells, C, Arizona
3.) Parker Chavers, OF, Coastal Carolina
4.) Hayden Cantrelle, 2B/SS, Louisiana-Lafayette
5.) Daniel Cabrera, OF, LSU
6.) Zach DeLoach, OF, Texas A&M
7.) Trei Cruz, SS/3B, Rice
8.) Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
9.) Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State
10.) Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
11.) Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State
12.) Ian Bedell, RHP, Missouri
13.) Noah Campbell, OF, South Carolina
14.) Matt McLain, 2B/3B/OF, UCLA
15.) Zavier Warren, 3B, Central Michigan
16.) Gage Workman, SS/3B, Arizona State
17.) Zach McCambley, RHP, Coastal Carolina
18.) Joe Boyle, RHP, Notre Dame
19.) Logan Allen, LHP, Florida International
20.) Trenton Denholm, RHP, Cal-Irvine
No one seems to be mentioning Ian Bedell from Mizzou. He was excellent in the 2019 Cape Cod league. Pick him up in the 3rd or 4th?
Westburg is Foscue’s middle infield partner.
BW – I base my assessment on the chances of a player becoming a St. Louis Cardinal some day. The statistics say that a larger percentage of college players make it than high school players and they make it to the big leagues faster. That’s all. I have no problem with taking a higher risk high schooler in the first round if we have another 1st round pick where we can take a good college player. But this year we don’t have another pick until toward the end of the second round. Therefore I’d go with a more proven college player at #21.
There’s a lot more to go on. Especially for this draft.
I just remember we drafted Shaun Boyd #13 in the first round 20 years ago and the scout said he had a quick bat and would develop power as he matured physically. Really liked him and pushed him hard for the 1st round before some other team got him. He was rated something like the 30th best player in Southern California for that draft. I also remember in 2015 when they drafted a 5’10” outfielder at #23 by the name of Nick Plummer. Supposedly a great athlete with outstanding tools, including both power and speed. In 96 games in 2019 he slashed .176/.312/.294/.606 at the A+ level. Smashed 5 home runs and pirated 3 stolen bases. Or how about that Kozma kid picked #18 in the 2007 draft?
It’s a combination between analytics and the scouts personal opinion. What’s interesting are the intangibles – team orientation, how he accepts instruction, competitiveness, attitude, etc.
Okay, I understand that Brian. But I’ve also heard baseball people (scouts) talk about high school players having a higher ceiling and college players having a high floor. It’s not my opinion alone by any means. Maybe it’s because some professional baseball people feel that professional managers and coaches at the short season levels will do a better job bringing out full potential than college coaches.
Mudville – how do you really quantify a “high ceiling” for a high school kid who has only played through 11th grade? Facing pitchers who are the same.
I’ve always been intrigued by the concept that talented high school players probably have higher ceilings than talented college players (who have a high floor). Maybe BW can explain that. The fact is that a higher percentage of college draftees make it to the major leagues than high school draftees.
As I said in another thread, since we only have 1 pick in the first 53 picks, it’s probably best we don’t take a player who has only played baseball through the 11th grade at #21.
In 2016, for example, the Cards had 3 of the first 34 picks. If they had that this year, I’d be all for taking a high school player in the first round. Even if we only had 2 picks in the 1st 34. But with only one pick in the first 53 players, I wouldn’t be risking that on a player who’s performance is only measured through 11th grade.
GameCard – do you have a technique to project how good a junior in high school will be? Are you willing to bet millions of dollars on that junior?
Name one high school IF player taken in the first 5 rounds over the past 20 years that has worked out for the Cardinals. Gorman is a special case. Best high school power hitter in the country. Kelly has worked out, but his position was switched.
Foscue is a real reach, but he’s less of a risk than Howard.
College pitchers in our discussions –
Crochet – 6’6”, 218 lbs.
Cavalli – 6’4”, 226 lbs.
Mlodzinski – 6’2”, 232 lbs.
Wilcox – 6’5”, 232 lbs.
Miller – 6’5”, 220 lbs.
Cecconi – 6’4”, 219 lbs.
Van Eyk – 6’1”, 198 lbs.
Jarvis – 6’2”, 195 lbs.
Foscue over Howard. Howard is a smooth defensive high school shortstop, but he’s never faced decent pitching. As they say in his scouting reports, his bat is behind his glove at this point. Similar to Delvin Perez when we drafted him. Our MI needs are much shorter range.
Surprised about Ellis, Ynfante, and Robbins.
No, David, my choice would be Crochet if he drops to us.
Foscue is 6’, 203 lbs. His sophomore year at Mississippi State he slashed
.331/.395/.564 with 14 home runs and 22 doubles in only 67 games. It’s said that he and Jordan Westburg formed the #1 double play combination in college baseball.
That’s not a cheery pick, GC. It’s simply quoting part of the report that is concerning.
Scouting report says Cavelli –
“Doesn’t have much track record of staying healthy or throwing strikes. His lack of command and deception also means that his premium stuff gets hit harder than it should.”
David – Isn’t Foscue a bit of a Wong clone?
Okay, LA, if you want to play that game, then I hope they get either Heston Kjerstad or Garrett Crochet.
So here’s another summery of the 36 first and supplemental first round picks since 2000 –
1.) Never made it to the majors –
2.) Made it to the majors for a short short time –
Chris Lambert (was in 14 MLB games)
Tyrell Jenkins (was in 14 MLB games)
Patrick Wisdom (41 MLB games so far)
3.) Played MLB for at least 3 years –
Daric Barton (traded after 0 Card games)
Tyler Greene (traded after 227 games with Cards)
Colby Rasmus (traded after 385 games with Cards)
Adam Ottavino (traded after 9 games with Cards)
Chris Perez (traded after 70 games with Cards)
Pete Kozma (granted free agency after 275 games with Cards)
Clayton Mortensen (traded after 1 game with Cards)
Brett Wallace (traded after zero games with Cards)
Lance Lynn (granted free agency after 183 games with Cards)
Shelby Miller (traded after 69 games with Cards)
Kolten Wong (long term Cardinal)
Michael Wacha (granted free agency after 165 games with Cards)
Stephen Piscotty (traded after 323 games with Cards)
Marco Gonzalez (traded after only 12 games with Cards)
Like Weaver (traded after 52 games with Cards)
Jack Flaherty (presently ace of staff)
4.) Jury is still out –
Interesting picture. How many have become long term core players versus busts, cup of coffee only, and traded after only a short term with Cards? Only 6 out of 27 have played in 100+ games for the Cards so far. Jury is still out on 9.
Cavelli is ranked #13 by MLB.com.
Why would he fall to #21?