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Folks, even if the goal is to “improve the farm, pipeline” etc. there are plenty of ways to not be awful and do so without hurting the “plan”. If they can’t have a payroll of $130, that’s beyond nonsense. Right now it’s at $97 (arb and pre arb is included in that), Arenado is likely gone so that saves another $10M or so.
1)Cody Ponce – 3/24 with team option
2)D. May – 2/24 with team option
3)Pomeranz – 1/3 (Assuming JoJo is gone)
4)Two LHRP from Rule 5 draft – Minimum
5-6) Any RF and LF on planet earth with power
And don’t forget Donnie, Noot, Crooks, JoJo, Saggesse, Prieto, etc can be packaged for 3-4 years of a controlled #1 starter or power hitting OF that isn’t pathetic. The FA market for OFers is pretty weak.The Cards do not have to suck to “keep the plan moving”!
If they add several short contracts, BUTTS In THE SEATS will pay for it and then some
5-6) Any RF and LF on planet earth with power
22 year old Josh Baez’ line for 2025 ….
.271/.374/.509/.883 16 HR 273 AB26 year old Alec Burleson’s line for 2025 ….
.290/.453/.459/.801 18 HR 497 AB
(The eye test tells me that Burleson’s fielding has improved to an acceptable level.)Lugo in the minors 4.27 ERA
Leahy 5.51Not comparable, I wouldn’t say. With a 4.27 ERA, in the rotation or ‘pen, you help your team win, at least a little. With a 5.51, you get released.
“I am not wild about the Leahy plan, either, but relievers to starters happens more frequently than some think. Here are some current examples:
Garrett Crochet
Michael King
Clay Holmes did it this year for the Mets”I apologize to all readers here. I guess I did a lousy job of articulating my point, so I’ll try once more.
Failed starting minor league pitchers do NOT become good relievers and then return to starting and succeed. That was my very specific point, because that’s exactly who Kyle Leahy is: a guy who failed in the minors as a starting pitcher. Resoundingly.Clay Holmes pitched in the minors to a solid 3.63 ERA — nearly two runs lower than Kyle Leahy. Michael King was even better than Holmes, with an outstanding 3.07 ERA in his minor league career.
Kyle Leahy is a carbon-based life form, which is about all he has in common with Holmes & King.
Kyle Leahy isn’t a successful MLB pitcher who happens to be a reliever. He’s a successful MLB pitcher because he switched to reliever. This isn’t conjecture. It is the entire weight of baseball history.Crochet is a fascinating case for sure — the dream scenario for Tanner Franklin fans, I guess you could say — but he (Crochet) was never a failed starter either, of course. Even back through his collegiate career, he was primarily a bullpen guy.
I’m a huge fan of Burly mud, not sure if that was directed toward me or not. I think something is going to come along for Contreras and he ends up agreeing to a trade, and I think that team will be Milwaukee. Burly takes over 1st full time.
If Herrera ends up not being suitable at catcher then he needs to learn LF/RF/1B immediately.
If there is a 2027 season Baez will be my pick for right field or left field in a heartbeat.I get what what you are saying, Bob, but there is a first for everything. Where the Cardinals would be stupid is that they count on Leahy being able to do it. They need to have plan B and plan C, and maybe D, E and F.
They would be very foolish to not go out and acquire a swingman type starter like Colin Rea was for the Cubs this year. The teams starting pitching mix is very volatile. Clearly they see potential in Libertore, back end in McGreevy. Starter potential in Fitts and then an experiment in Leahy and a wild card in Pallante.
I’m not as bullish on the starting pitching mix down in the minors as some. I think almost all of it is at least a late July
Call up away. Pallante is a compete wild card and you dont know what you really have in Fitts and Leahy. At least go out and throw some money at guy you can deal for a top 20 prospect if he ends up in the rotation due to injury or ineffectiveness. It’s called hedging you bets and this ownership and Chaim are idiots if they don’t at least address it.Liberatore went back to starting. He may never win a CY, but he wasn’t “ruined” either. I see no risk in trying with Leahy.
Quality is expensive. Quantity is much less so. No reason they won’t follow the latter route with respect to the rotation. Depth is necessary – as long as they don’t block prospects when they show they are ready. (Discussed on the podcast this week.)
I don’t mind taking a look at Leahy as a SP in 2026 at all. McGreevy, Liberatore, Fitts have a little more leash. Leahy take a look. Pallante on a shorter leash. If you don’t like what you see with Leahy and Pallante as SP in 2026, they have proven to be serviceable RP and hopefully out of Mathews, Henderson, Mautz, Hansen, Doyle, Hence (Health?, is is treanding more RP now?), Roby (Health? Going to miss all of 2026, maybe RP now too), Hjerpe (Health?) make strides to work their way into getting their shot at SP in 2027. And that’s just the top names right now. See how things shake out, who else could be added during trade this off season.
For those of you who believe in this website’s algorithms, they say the Cardinals won the trade handily.
Today the #RedSox reportedly acquired RHP Sonny Gray (-$10.4M surplus trade value) and cash ($20M) from the #STLCards in exchange for LHP Brandon Clarke ($16.2M) and Richard Fitts ($7.5M).
The deal is rejected by our model as an overpay by Boston.
— Baseball Trade Values (@BaseballValues) November 25, 2025
If BTV is using Grays 35mil salary only, and have a -10.4mil expected value in 2026, then they must be estimating his field value at +24.6mil, as the break even point.
The Cardinals only win this trade if Fitts or Clarke turn out to be better than Gray. I would tend to believe that site for established MLB players a lot more than I would for prospects, who are valued weirdly.
I would tend to believe that site for established MLB players a lot more than I would for prospects, who are valued weirdly.
It’s actually just the opposite. They heavily penalize contracts, to the point it overwhelms on-field production.
When you are trading for established players, you are looking for on-field production, not “surplus value.”
We now know Bill bought two seasons of Gray for 55mil (10, 25 & 20mil), and two prospects. Fangraphs valued those two seasons of Sonny at 59mil of field value.
Gray might put up 4war next season during his FA platform season. Or maybe those 2nd half red flags in 25′ show up?
TBD if Fitts and Clarke equal Grays 2026, during their club control. The 3/75mil to Gray was a good signing.
, not sure if that was directed towards me or not
ChiTown – Not an attack or anything like that. Just wanted to lighten things up a bit. As it stands right now, I don’t see how they can keep Burly out of LF, and I’m hoping Josh Baez forces his way out of Memphis sooner rather than later. We’ll see.
I always enjoy reading about your thoughts on various issues with the Cardinals.
Excellent trade. The Cards took $20 million off the table while trading an aging starter for 2 talented young pitchers. Fitts will probably be a #4-5 starter in St. Louis next season. And as Bloom has said, Clarke has as high a ceiling as any pitcher in the minors right now. Has hit 101 on the gun and has a wicked slider.
Boston’s #5 prospect.Any posters discussing Leahy or Pallante in the rotation for 2026 need to have some patience. Bloom has just started. Trades involving Arenado and Donovan are upcoming. And trades involving Contreras, Nootbaar, and perhaps a catcher are possible. The 26 man for 2026 is far from set.
Mud, appreciate the thoughts. We are all here for entertainment of course and yes, I’d put Burly in a COF spot if Contreras is still here. He has a canon when he gets to the ball, may I ask why you think LF over RF? (That’s for anyone, not just Mud).
Cant wait to tune in on March 26th to watch Gavin Williams 1st start with the birds on the bat! Even if it costs Donnie, Mautz and Noot…. That’s pretty realistic, I think?
After sleeping on it, I still harbor an immense amount of mixed feelings. With most trades, one can usually form an opinion pretty readily…….but not with this one. Every team needs a “stopper”, or at least one that somewhat resembles a “stopper”. Your elite teams usually have multiple “stoppers”. With Gray gone, the 2026 Cardinals will have no SP even remotely looking like “stopper” material.
Fitts doesn’t excite me in the least. His numbers are abysmal and will probably only get worse as time goes by like Pallante’s. Clarke is intriguing and it’s nice that he has the Tommy John injury out of the way. Let’s hope his continued blister issues subside and he’s able to dominate in A+ ball at Peoria this coming season. It sure would be great to see a Brandon Clarke sighting in Springfield next year. Maybe the wild card in this will end up being the PTBNL?
It is tough being in a rebuild mode, but that is reality and due to that I am okay with this deal. Load up on younger guys and hope you stumble on a couple that turn out to be gems, and go from there. But in doing that you know it is not out of the realm of possibility that we are a 65-70 team next year. Yikes!
I like the trade for the reasons espoused by several posters. It also presents the organization with both a developmental and health management test with Clarke. We wil find out if the changes made on the player develoment side over the past year can get Clarke to become a productive major league pithcer.
I would also agree that we need to have patience with the front office. We have only seen a few moves to date with more to come. There will be more trades. I would also not rule out the signing of one of two “daimmond in the rough” free agents that the scouting department believes they can transform into productive major league contributors.
But in doing that you know it is not out of the realm of possibility that we are a 65-70 team next year. Yikes!
Right now, the rotation consists of Liberatore as the “ace,” plus McGreevy, Pallante, Leahy and Fitts. We just traded a guy who the team went 21-11 in his starts, and 56-73 in all others (a 70 win pace). There’s talk that we will almost assuredly trade two of our three best position players, starting 3B, and perhaps another starting OF and our top reliever. Ownership has not shown much in the way of desire to replace these guys with players who may be better.
So yes, it is at least in the realm of possibility that we see the Cardinals lose in the range of 60% or more of their games next year. I would argue that it’s really likely.
Can we get another lottery pick for the 2027 draft or will be capped?
Of course the rules could be changed by then since a new CBA is coming up after next season.
Can we get another lottery pick for the 2027 draft or will be capped?
Yes. If we don’t get one this year. If we win one in 2026, that would be 2 years in a row and would exclude us.
“A work in progress”
We are still 300 IP from having the 2025 rotation backfilled. Any win/loss predictions are extremely pre-mature, unless CB is done for the winter. I think not!
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