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I will try to be clearer on players we have that could be of interest to other teams.
Also somehow I missed that if we don’t sign Nicasio, Betances of the Yankees could be a nice pickup. He has closer stuff but is blocked by Chapman and New York has a lot of relief pitching depth.Yes Chavis was #93 on Baseball America and selected the Red Sox offensive player of the year by the team. 31 home runs in 2017 so could be a possibility to switch to 1b. Probably at least a year away now.
Continuing AL East
Tampa Bay’s minor league system has 5 of the top 100 Baseball American mid season rankings. That squares with their pre-season of #11 of the 30 major league teams. Shortstop Willy Adames and rhp Brent Honeywell are ranked 13 and 14. Adames has a full season at AAA and he could be the answer to 2b for the Rays.
– Who they may want. If they intend for Adames to be their future shortstop the Rays could be interested in Wong and I suspect that they would be interested in a good starting pitcher. They may be a team that would have an interest in Grichuk with their shortage in power. Wilson Ramos had only a .1 WAR and their backup Sucre .4 so they may be very interested in Kelly.
– Who we may want – Certainly Adames with the thought of moving DeJong to 2b or 3b. He has had high strikeout numbers with modest power so I suspect we would deal using Wong if we could get another lower level prospect and I would not trade even up for Kelly as well. Longoria has always been on the list but is pricey and pretty well reached his peak.Baltimore
Strengths – Some key parts in Machado, Jones, Shoop and Martini. Good potential young pitchers in Gausman and Bundy but drops off sharply from there. Castillo solid at c.
-Weakness – Holes in lineup. Aging and expensive Davis at 1b and Hardy probably done at ss. No closer with more than 18 saves and generally unimpressive pitching. Weak minor league system with only catcher Chance Sisco among BA’s top 100. Ranked #27 coming into season.
-Their interest – Pitchers, pitchers, pitchers and maybe an outfielder as a throwin.
-Our interest – Machado, Machado, Machado; Could possibly have for a couple of top pitching prospects. A potential beast. Wish he was under control longer. Would be great if we could get a contract extension with the trade.Toronto
Strengths – Solid parts in injury prone Tulowitzki, Donaldson and good defensive center fielder in Pillar. Arguably #1 prospect in Guerrero Jr. Also possible good prospects in Bichette Jr. and Lourdes Gurriel, the Cuban who had an unimpressive year.
Weaknesses – Age; combined with a major drop in performance in 17. 11 of the 13 starting position players and top 4 pitchers are age 30 or older. After 2 strong years closer Roberto Osuna had a significant drop off, always a bad thing in closers.
– Their interest – Probably any of our top pitching and outfield prospects. Also Kelly. Even though Russell Martin is signed until 2020 he is 34 and had a poor 2017. Since we have an interest in Donaldson they probably will try to sell high.
– Our interest – I am lukewarm on Donaldson but would probably rather have him than Longoria. We have the pieces to land him and it is probably a matter of reaching a reasonable agreement. I think Mo is always ready to walk away. Would love to have Guerrero Jr. He not only seems to have the high ceiling but is performing at that level so far. It is not unprecedented for a #1 prospect to be traded (Moncada
from Red Sox to White Sox last year, particularly from a team in distress. Don’t know if we would give up the established players required for a long term bet.Will look at AL Central in a few days.
AL East Possibilities
Boston
Strengths- offense except 1b with 31 year old Moreland. Sam Travis a so-so possibility to replace. Benintendi a potential super star. can play left or center field.
Front end of rotation Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz and Price. May be a top contender for Lynn as a free agent. Would have been a great trade deadline deal.
Bullpen with Kimbrel and depth behind him.
Weaknesses- Bench with only Eduardo Nunez with impact.
First base and possibly DH
Who they may want – Maybe Martinez or Voit to platoon with Moreland. Wacha, Reyes and Martinez but we would need a Benintendi in a deal for the latter two.
Who we would want – Benintendi would be a great #3 hitter. He and Devers (3b) have already been added and their minor system is a little thin. Bobby Dalbec (3b) a 2016 4th round choice is intriguing.New York
Strengths – Bullpen with Chapman, Betances, Green and Robertson.
– Catcher, outfield although Gardner and Ellsbury at 33 winding down from peak performances. Can Judge continue to thrive. Advanced from #6 prospect to record HR’s for rookie in 2017.
Weaknesses – 1b with Carter (653 OPS) and Bird (.190) -.7 WAR between them. Either Carp, Martinez or Voit would be and improvement but the Yankees can afford to go for better options if available.
-Starting pitching. They have the bodies but several are injury prone. May have solved with the acquisition of Sonny Gray.
Who they may want – Possibly one of our first basemen if another option is not available. A starting pitcher among Reyes, Weaver, Martinez or Wacha. Again they may go for Lynn as free agent.
Who we would want – Other than Judge who is certianly untouchable, only Sanchez seems to be more than a role player and we already have a surplus. Didi is excellent but probably untouchable too. Shortstop Gleybor Torres is their #1 prospect and is progressing. He could be available for a price if they don’t move him to second or third base.Tampa Bay
Strengths – Morrison a late bloomer at 1b, CF Kiermaier defense and Longoria.
– Young but still developing starting pitching staff-potential strength but not there yet. Colome two consecutive strong years in the pen.
Weaknesses – second base and DH (Duda not the answer). – Bullpen lacks depth and does bench. Team is similar to Cardinals with lots of pieces but few real impact performers. Only 3 players over .800 OPS among starters.None over .868. Will finish later with Baltimore and Toronto.Shildt has managed in the Cardinal system for years and has several championships under his belt. Why would Clapp move ahead of him. Clapp did a nice job at Memphis this year but had oodles of talent even after all of the callups.
Speaking of bullpen use, Clapp had a 3-1 lead behind Hudson in the AAA championship game and for whatever reason pulled him in the 4th and put in Josh Zeid with his 6.00+ ERA and sure enough Zeid was torched and Memphis never recovered.
I had cooled on Lilliquist. Too many injuries. Not much growth by guys like Wacha and Martinez. Critical to get someone like Rhighetti or the guy at Pittsburgh that seem to get a lot out of pitchers and revitalize guys that have stalled with other teams. Cub guy seems to be pretty good too.
I am also not a fan of Mabry. Sure he is a nice guy but we are too hit and miss offensively and players have poor plate discipline. Believe we have better hitting coaches in the system.
Sometimes dumping assistants is a sign that the top guy is on his last legs but not always. Management could be forcing Matheny’s hand by dropping his assistants but that is only speculation if there is not solid info that they are taking over his area of responsibility.
Guillory (71.4%), Cordero (63.6%), Nicacio (62.5%), Parra (60.0%), Perez,J ((60.0%), Schlesener (60.0%), Junior Gonzalez (55.6%), Kruczynski (53.8%), Mayers, Tewes, Castano, Warner, Ventura, Poncedeleon, Prendergast, and Soto all (50.0%), Derian Gonzalez (46.7%), Mulford (46.7%), Pearce (44.8%), Solano (44.4%), Seijas (41.7%), Pereira, Edhemendia and Sexton (40.0%), Rondon and Moreno (36.4%), Oviedo (35.75), Dobranski and Arturo Reys (33.3%), Junior Fernandez (31.3%), Ramirez (27.3%), Zeid and Balestrieri (25%), Farinaro (22.2%), Kilichowski and Pirela (20%), Herget (18.2%), Lyons (16.7%) a lot of rehab one inning starts; Benitez (16.7%)
Herget had a number of bullpen starts before becoming a part of the rotation. He had a couple of key starts in the post season including one dominating start against El Paso where he gave up 4 hits along with one walk and 15 strikeouts in 8 innings.
Thanks Brian. That study certainly indicates that what I have sensed is legit. I would also like to know how the actual games come out. I probably have equal or greater concern as to whether he leaves an ineffective reliever in too long. Particularly with Bowman. Bowman like Seth Maness before him is pretty good when he is good but when he is bad he is awful.
Head in the sand, maybe. At least not in concrete as with those who are not open to any information that doesn’t coincide with their own thinking, no matter what.
Leaks and anonymous sources, very shoddy base for decision making. The Molina tweet? He clearly was unhappy to sit and the very people who have blasted Matheny for using Yadi too much jumped right on that as trouble in the clubhouse. And just maybe Yadi was feeling a little threatened with the attention given to Kelly. Just maybe he could see his playing time diminishing.
I repeat, I am open minded about Matheny and I understand that some have hated him from the first. But to be fair there should be something more than leaks and such. I have had concerns about how long he leaves a pitcher in the game who is having trouble. But frankly I have never collected info about how his decision worked out. If it goes bad more than 20-30% of the time then I can make a decision about that.
If management fires Matheny I have no problem. If not, then I am OK assuming they know more than I do.
Curious as to who are these insiders and how do they say Matheny is a poor strategist.
Everyone is into inuendos and editorializing these days. Like Jack Webb, I just want the facts. Sure that most do not know who Jack Webb was.
I have started to put together a comprehensive trade possibility list that I will post in 7 parts because of the load of information. I will begin with my estimate of needs and then an analysis of possibilities in each division consisting of other teams needs and what players I would like at the major or minor league levels. While I agree with Brian that I want immediate needs filled if that is not possible we should use our surplus to grab a top minor league prospect like young Guerrero of the Blue Jays.
We have a ton of average major league players both pitching and position players. Hard to evaluate some of the pitchers because they were pitching in intense pressure most of the season. We have scored 3 runs or less in a game 65 times this year. Pitching in tight situations wears a pitcher down so maybe the late season melt downs by some are due to fatigue. Same goes for the bullpen to a lesser extent.
From our regular position players I would want to retain Yadi, DeJong and possibly Pham. Wong would be a longer shot but he is still pretty inconsistent and messes up a lot of routine plays in the field. Yadi seems to have lost a little mobility and not quite as good blocking pitches as before but he is hitting as well as ever, a great handler of pitchers and still has a good arm. Many want to compare DeJong with Diaz but I see DeJong doing a better job of adjusting. Diaz went from lunging to much to constantly lunging and getting out front with wild swings out of the zone. I still think he has good upside if he gets his act together and would hang on to him. DeJong on the other hand has hit 38 home runs this season with the 13 he hit at Memphis. He is at least an average major league shortstop which Diaz is not. He would also fill in nicely at second or third base. I think Diaz will ultimately end up as a corner infielder or outfielder if he stays in the major leagues. Pham is a late bloomer and those guys are usually early faders al la Allen Craig. Pham’s lateness in becoming a regular is clearly as result of injuries but that is also a danger in the future. He may have maximum trade value at this time.
Of the other regular position players Grichuk has the highest upside and probably decent trade value to a team who thinks they can do a better job than the Cardinals at realizing that upside. Martinez had DH written all over him but he would be adequate at first base in the short term. He is also probably at maximum trade value. I can live with Fowler in left field but not center. Gyorko can not get to 500 AB’s in a season and so is an ideal utility player. Also probably at peak trade value. I like a lot about Carp but I think fading and at max trade value. Fans too much in key situations.
Hard to evaluate the pitchers. Consensus seems to be that Alex Reyes and Martinez are the untouchables. Wacha and Martinez are overpowering at times but often melt down when they get into a tight situation. Lynn is probably gone. Weaver and Flaherty are definite keepers. Waino with serious questions. I could part with anyone in the bullpen except for Tuivalala who is gradually gaining traction, Brebbia who has been on the cusp of dominance but doesn’t get there all of the time. But I can see him becoming at least a good 7th or 8th inning set up guy. If we don’t resign Nicasio or pick up a closer you could see Alcantara as our closer next year. He got off to a bad start at Springfield but had 5 or 6 consecutive quality starts when they moved him to the pen.
On the minor league front the major strengths are starting pitching and outfield. Weaver, Flaherty may have seen their last minor league assignment. Right behind them are Hudson, Gallen, Helsley and Hicks. Then the soft tossers Pearce, Gomber and O’Reilly. Woodford, Poncedeleon and Jones possibilities. Ponce will have to handle the mental part of dealing with possible line drives at his head. The Cleveland Indians had a young pitcher. Herb Score in the 50’s (20 game winner at age 23) who had a similar injury and he was never the same after recovery.
Our highes cieling outfielders are O’Neill, Adolis Garcia and Sierra. Right behind are Bader, Arozarena and Mercado with Machado and Carlson longer term possibilities. Garcia is probably the most underrated player in our system, not even making the MLB top 30.
I’m not as high on our middle infielders as most and probably see catching as the next best. Kelly will probably be a major league regular but is out of sync with Yadi timewise. Knizer looks to be a very good prospect and possibly will hit better than Kelly. I have also not given up on Jeremy Martinez who never got it going offensively at Palm Beach but hit very well in the PCL playoffs and put a pretty good minor league catcher, Gabriel Lino on the bench for the entire playoff run.
Sorry about the length and some guys not addressed like Piscotty. Will post my analysis of the AL East in the next day or two.
Brian I totally agree in your need to maintain balance on the subject.
However, reading between the lines I sense at least a slight lean and could easily be misinterpreting it. Also it would be inappropriate for me to express where I think you are leaning. My antenna goes up on your posts because of your access to players and team officials that we don’t have.
I would like to see a more civil discussion. I would also like to see more specific information rather than someone always makes dumb decisions. What decisions are dumb and why.
I usually discount posts from those who are always positive or always negative. Very few people are all good or all bad so there is very little value in posts that are always extreme one way or the other.
When I watch a game I try to anticipate MM’s moves ahead of time other than baserunning. Never know who made the decision to steal as some players are probably on their own. Some of his decisions I disagree with but he more often makes the move I would make. On those I disagree I am probably wrong on more than I am right.
The ups and downs bother me too. Our best starters letting the game get out of hand before the game is out of the second inning and our hitters hitting double figure run production one game and looking like they are swinging with a wet newspaper the next game.
bocran I don’t have a dog in this fight but fair is fair.
When I see people called stupid that turned this franchise around after the mess the brewery made of the team it is clear that they have all of the answers and everyone else is stupid. Maybe even the organ player is stupid if we still have one.
When they show up on game threads criticizing moves before they play out on the field they will have some credibility. Anyone can find something to pick at after the fact.
Rats I will order a 10 gun salute for you if Stanton becomes a Cardinal. And a 20 gun salute if we get him For Flaherty, Piscotty and Grichuk.
Mercado was going great before his injury (I think he was leading the team in average with modest power) really struggled when he returned but seemed to finish stronger. One of the keys to me is that he always was used in center field even with Sierra, Arozarena and Adolis Garcia around.
I agree what a pleasure it was to watch both Sringfield and Memphis. I had to use the internet but both teams were exciting with exciting prospects on both offense and defense. I think spring training is going to be something in 18. Hope I get down there again.
One player I don’t want to fall between the cracks is Machado who had a very good GCL season.
Tell me Black Hills; If Oh had set them down 1-2-3 would you have said Matheny made the right choice? Who hasn’t been torched in our bullpen lately? Hard to say who has been the most effective. Maybe Lyons and Brebbia. But if they are the best are you going to bring them in in the middle of a 1-1 game. Maybe Alcantara who has been effective since giving up a homer to the first major league batter he faced. But if it went bad you would be the first to say that he shouldn’t have exposed him that way.
Still everyone dealing with generalities.
Matheny does a poor job managing the bullpen. How so
He is too stubborn to learn; learn what he should do different. What should it be. When did he make a stubborn decision.
I’m still not sure how I would rate Matheny. He has had a winning team each year and I don’t buy the superior talent bit. He had just lost arguably the best power hitter in Cardinal history and did OK. He has had terrible luck (if it is luck) with pitcher injuries. He hasn’t had a decent #3 and #4 hitter for some time. Maybe due to him being so stubborn.
He is certainly not at the Herzog level yet. Herzog was a keen judge of talent (and i think Matheny is not bad here) and did a great job of using players at the right time even through sending them to the minors to get their timing back. I think was superior tactically which is hard for me to judge but obviously not to others. LaRussa rarely made a decision that was not computer driven but who am I to criticize. The guy has won the third most games in major league history. He was almost #2 (John McGraw) and #1 (Connie Mack) was the owner of the team he managed. LaRussa was superior in identifying the needed roles to win and somehow got pretty good players into those roles.
Frankly I don’t pay too much attention to those who always have bad things to say and disappear when things go well.
Also don’t pay a lot of attention to those who always are positive.
I pay a lot more attention to those with a more balanced outlook. And for those who say I have always been a Cardinal fan and am just being objective. Must be tough being negative all of the time about something you supposedly support.
And let me understand. It was bad to have a righthanded pitcher pitch to Heyward who is left handed, but also bad to let a lefty pitch to Jay who is also left handed. Sounds like looking for a reason to pick. And who hasn’t been bad out of the bullpen this year. And who is more likely to get a double play ball than Bowman although I agree Bowman has not been as good this year as last.
Black Hills your comment about Matheny’s bad decisions in the Cub series is typical.
Let’s see
Clearly Matheny made the decision for his team to score only 6 runs the entire series.
Also for Carp, Yadi and DeJong to have a sub par series at the plate
Or for our so called ace to melt down in the first game or maybe it was a bad decision to even let him pitch.
Are those some of the things you are referring to?Decisions can go one way or another and can be viewed differently by well meaning people. Some can say that it was a bad decision and that it didn’t work. Or they can say that it was a good decision that didn’t work. Anyone can say how it worked after the fact and some will evaluate the decision after they know the result.
You will have more credibility if you specify the decision you think was bad. Like bringing in Bowman during the Martinez meltdown. But wait, Bowman is arguably our best double play pitcher and we needed a double play. (By the way the next game that Bowman came in we also needed a double play and he got a double play ball that DeJong launched into right field.) In the Cub game he didn’t get a double play ball so it was obviously a bad decision by the manager.
I am not making these comments in defense of Matheny. I have concerns about Fowler in center field, about how often we strike out on bad pitches and are called out on so many good pitches but you know what I would probably see many of the things I don’t like if I was a fan of any other team. The bad thing about the great internet that we have is that provides a forum for anyone who thinks they are smarter than the professional people they observe.
