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56 Shane Billings – Has not shown power but speedy center fielder who hits well.
57 Derian Gonzalez – Will probably be the most underrated player in this process
58 Ramon Santos – Dominant in starts during August. 2 earned runs in last 6 starts.
59 Trey Nielson – Strong AAA performance. Health a question
60 Andrew Morales – Solid performance in relief. Should get betterBack in. Sorry I had a lot going and got behind with the 5 at once thing. Like the 5 at once.
51. Derian Gonzalez
52. Anthony Shew
53. Julio Rodriguez
54. Stefan Trosclair
55. Andrew MoralesKnizer 4 hits in 10-1 win tonight. Sosa 1-3. Reyes, Hicks and Lucas pitched. Hicks one run in two innings. Reyes and Lucas unscored on.
The other thing I think the Cardinals do well is give their top prospects a lot of exposure during spring training. They seem to do a good job of identifying those they think have a good possibility of helping the team. I recall a report during spring training that they were very impressed with DeJong’s exit velocity. I seem to remember that I heard a comment on Rosenthal during spring training after his AA season at Springfield.
I am troubled by the inconsistency of the team although they performed on the total season stats about where they finished in the standings. But you are likely to have a down year when you score 3 runs or less in 66 games. Thought we did improve our baserunning and defense as the year progressed. Was suprised to see that we were successful in 72% of our steal attempts.
I am also troubled about the serious injuries to pitchers and the lack of progress by some of our key starters (Wacha, Martinez). Also fading of some of the hitters. Seems they can go to Memphis for a bit and come back rejuvinated.
I have never been too troubled by his handling of pitchers in spite of all of the studies saying he is so bad. If he is so bad how did we finish 11th of the 30 teams in holds and 5th in percentage of saves vs opportunities. And in a year that our bullpen operated without an effective closer a good part of the year. Had a good stretch by Rosenthal before his injury and by Nicasio at the end of the year.
I think that many of the Sabermatics adherants are of the opinion that you should use the closer at the most critical point of the game rather than mostly in the 9th inning. I don’t need advanced stats to determine AFTER the game when the most critical point of the game was. I felt that Matheny was trying to get Brebbia and to a lesser extent Tuivalala into more pressurized situations but it appeared that they were not quite ready for that pressure. I think both could be very key to our bullpen in 18.
By the way I am an adherant to the advanced stats. Some holes and the defense stats are improving but I seriously believe that the WAR measurement, while not perfect is by far the best measurement of a players ability.
I do not agree with some of the posts I have seen. I don’t think this is the year to deal Piscotty. I expect him to rebound in 18. But if someone is willing to pay a price expecting a rebound, game on. I agree with the handling of Pham. He hit .226 in 2016 fanning 71 times in 159 AB’s. Martinez had a brief but strong stint in the same year. Then in spring training Martinez had 4 homers and a 1.248 OPS while Pham hit .209 with .599 OPS. Would not have been hard to chose Martinez in spite of Phams very strong defense. Then when Pham got it together at Memphis he was brought up. I guess you could say we should have kept 5 outfielders and kept Pham on percieved upside.
I think one of Matheny’s clear strengths is the ability to identify the minor league players who are ready to help the big team. Most of our call ups have been pretty successful over the years.
If you look at 2017 results comparing contributions of system developed players performance with those signed as free agents or obtained in trades you may conclude that the 2017 dropoff maybe should be more on Mo’s shoulders.
Finally I will apologize to Black Hills for saying that he bashed neutral posters. He once did say I had my head in the sand but the apology is still offered.
When you consider scouts we should think of Charlie Barrett who was a scout during Rickey’s early years. Barrett was so good that the rich teams like the Giants followed him to see who he was trying to sign and then they would outbid the Cardinals, sometimes sight unseen. This led Rickey to develop the Cardinal minor league system which topped out at 31 teams.
Think about picking the top 50 prospects in those days.
I’m not much for the mea culpa stuff. Mo said that they need to improve from top to bottom. Little is gained by throwing your subordinates under the bus publicly. That often leads to serious problems. Criticism by management is best handled inside the organization.
I think we as fans get emotional about specific incedents and tend to apply those to the total picture. For example; We lead off with a double and the next 3 batters strike out. I start complaining that we must strike out the most and take more fat pitches and swing at more bad pitches than anyone in baseball. Yet when I look at the numbers we struck out the 14th most times in the majors. Not good but far from the worst in baseball. Other times I complain that we never execute the sacrifice as well as everyone else. Yet we were 7th in baseball in the number of sacrifices in 2017.
You can go to the Major League website and sort every stat. The Cardinals generally range from 12th to 18th on offense. Not a playoff caliber offense. Our top rankings are in walks (5th), OBP (8th) sacrifices (7th), sacrifice flys (8th). The worst stat is that we were 6th worst in hitting into double plays. We scored 3 runs or less in 66 games but that was offset by double digit outings which made our overall offensive numbers look better than they were. Unfortunately that does not compute to a strong season.
We were better in the pitching department. We were 3rd in groundball outs, 11th in holds, 11th in WHIP, 5th in the percentage of saves to opportunities, 2nd best in preventing stolen bases, tied for 4th in causing grounding into double plays, 7th in walks allowed and 10th in OBP and OPS allowed. Still not up to our usual standards but not anywhere near a disaster.
Defensive is hard to measure but in spite of a generally negative feeling about the defense we were average (15th) in errors committed and 10th in cumulative WAR. Dodgers were best at +5.4 and the Mets worst at -5.4. We were at 1.7 vs -1.3 in 2016. Fowler (-1.6) and Jose Martinez (-1.1) really hurt our numbers. But it appears that we did improve our defense.
We were helped a good bit from our minor leagues with DeJong, Pham, Bader, Weaver, Brebbia and Tuivailala perfroming well after being called up from Memphis. (Among Cardinal pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched Brebbia and Tuivailala were 1-2 in E.R.A.)
I posted data earlier that showed that we had solid to good performances from home grown players and very little from players acquired as free agents and players acquired in trades. So part of our strategy is working; the development internally. But we bombed out on the rest of it in 17.
If we continue the same way in 2018 I believe we will have a similar result. Yet a few key moves in the offseason could make a big difference. We are not that far off and have a good group of young players coming along.
Black Hills
Your approach is simply
1) Bash everything about Matheny
2) Bash anyone who supports Matheny
3) Bash anyone who is neutral about Matheny and has something positive to say.
4) Ignore any point of view other than your own.You are welcome to your world. Impossible to communicate with that frame of mind.
1. Middle order bat
2. Closer
3. Middle relief depth
4. Defensive upgrade
5. Inning eater starter
6. Leadoff hitter
7. Top of rotation starterOK Ready to take on the AL Central. Hope to do a better job with this one.
To start I have the following eligible for free agency
Cleveland – Santana, Bruce, Jackson and Bauer
Minnesota – Hectar Santiago
Kansas City – Hosmer, Escobar, Moustakas, Cain, Melky Cabrera, Vargas – Ouch
White Sox – Miguel Gonzalez, Pelfry
Detroit – No one of consequence
If I have missed a key player just drop the name.Cleveland
Strengths – A very solid team. Good mix of youth and vets. Potential superstars in Lindor and Ramirez. Very deep bullpen with only one of top 5 over 3.00 ERA. Expect them to go hard to resign Bauer and Bruce. Minor league system solid. #18 coming into 2017 and key prospects did well
Weakness – Really not much if they resign key free agents. Bruce only impact bat in outfield.
Players we may want – We probably don’t have enough to trade for one of their key players. A possibility is to pick up minor league first baseman Bobby Bradley a potential big bat.
Players they may want – Possibly Pham to give them more pop in the outfield. Kelly if they didn’t have Mejia who is highly rated as a catcher.Minnesota
Strengths – Youth with potential impact (Broxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco). Power bat in Dozier.
Weaknesses – Pitching, both starting and relief. Traded Kintzler their only solid reliever and starter Santana (4.6 WAR) is 34 without much strength behind him. Minor league system weak #22 going into season and only two young shortstops in BA top 100.
Players we may want – Possibly Dozier. They would want Wong and probably a pitching prospect. We would not throw a top prospect in but probably a second level guy or two. Dozier would probably cut into Gyorko’s playing time. We would also be interested in Gordon, a highly rated minor league shortstop.
Players they would want – pitchers, pitchers, pitchers.Kansas City
Strengths – One of the best catchers in the game in Perez.
Weaknesses – Many key players free agents including Cain who we should have gone after last year instead of Fowler. Weak minor league system. 26th going into 2017 and no one in BA or MLB top 100. Moss as DH, Gordon serious fall off in performance. Aging pitchers, both starters and bullpen.
Players we may want – Moustakas and Hosmer and possibly Cain if we could dump Fowler. Mondesi who had an awful season a dark horse.
Players they may want – outfielders and pitchers but they have very little to offer. Not a good team to trade with but we need to seriously consider their free agents, particularly Moustakas.White Sox
Strengths – Abreu 4.7 WAR. Very strong minor league system with 8 of BA’s top 100. Ranked 5th going into 2017 and only got better.
Weaknesses – Young players trying to gain traction. Avisil Garcia a strong year 4.5 WAR after a cumulative .1 over 5 previous seasons. Another of the guys coming from nowhere to a miracle season. High risk as something smells here. Wonder if there is a new PED that the tests miss. Pitching very weak. Already released Holland and traded two of their best relief pitchers in Swarzak and Robertson. Swarzak had highest WAR among pitchers (1.8)
Players we may want – Abreu if we can clear out the roadblock at 1b. A number of their top prospects (Moncada, et.al.) but they probably didn’t trade for those guys to trade them away.
Players they may want – Outfield and pitching prospects. They may also be interested in a solid vet like Gyorko or Carpenter to help the young guys along.Detroit
Strengths – aging Kinzer is probably only valuable guy there after the scorched earth flurry that sent Verlander, Quintana, Avila, Justin Wilson, JD Martinez and Upton away. Miguel Cabrera stays with a very long 30 Million contract into eternity. Their minor league system has improved and will improve more with some of the prospects they picked up in the trades. They came into the 2017 ranked 25th and have 4 in BA’s top 100.
Weaknesses – Starting from scratch except for Miggy and Kinsler both long in the tooth. Aging DH Victor Martinez with negative WAR in 2017. Minor league system has been weak for years.
Players we may want – Shane Green a relief pitcher who had a breakout year (172 ERA+ and 2.4 WAR)
Players they may want – Just about any prospect we have.So you would stick with Piscotty in the #3 hole and Grichuk at #4. Thought he did a good job of utilizing Gyorko in the first half and DeJong and Martinez down the stretch. Not great solutions but what better options?
And I am constantly seeing generalized statements about pitching decisions. At times I would like to see both starters and relievers pulled earlier than Matheny pulls them. I am probably wrong more than I am right. Also I think he uses Bowman too much but Bowman is arguably our best double play guy. One complaint I saw was using a righthanded pitcher against Hayward instead of Sherriff, who at that time was a rookie who had been hammered in recent outings. MM usually uses lefties against good left handed hitters. Not always but as I have often told my engineering friends, the answer to every situation is not math.
I think the new stats are a step toward a better way to evaluate players but they are not perfect and will never totally account for the human factor. I am encouraged with the improvement in defensive measurements.
Correction add one pitcher and 3.1 WAR to the in system players. Somehow missed Lynn and it was too late to edit when I double checked. Guess I am already counting him gone.
Just a few figures to illustrate some of the source of our woes. Don’t have all of the data but at least 95% correct.
In 2017 the Cardinals had 28 players who were signed and developed within the organization perform at the major league level. Fifteen were position players and 13 pitchers. Position players contributed 16.0 WAR and pitchers 7.2 (not included are pitchers batting numbers).
In 2017 the Cardinals had 7 players (3 position, 4 pitchers) perform at the major league level who were acquired in trades. Position players had a cumulative WAR of 6.0 while pitchers had a 6.7 WAR for a total of 12.7. We gave up 7.9 in 2017 WAR to acquire those players.
In 2017 the Cardinals had 12 players (5 position, 7 pitchers) perform at the major league level who were signed as free agents or purchased outright or claimed through Rule V. Brebbia was signed from the Independent Leagues. Position players had a cumulative WAR of .8 while the pitchers had a cumulative WAR of 2.9 for a total of 3.7. 2017 Salaries for the 12 players was 56.8 Million. Actually less because of trades that relieved us of some of the salary.
I did a quickie review of 22 of the top Cleveland Indians players. Results are 9 of the 22 developed in the system with a WAR of 20.3, 2 free agents at a 2017 cost of 16.2 Million and a WAR of 4.7 and 11 acquired in trades with a cumulative WAR of 32.2. Particularly painful is that when we traded for Westbrook from Cleveland the Indians recieved Cory Kluber (2017 WAR 8.0) as part of a 3 team trade. Of course we were looking for short term help and Kluber was still in the minors. I didn’t check the Cubs so I suspect that they have a similar trade value as the Indians and a much more productive group of players signed as free agents.
Mo has signed some impactful free agents who helped us when we were getting into the post season such as Berkman, Beltran and Peralta who fizzled out this year. Also he picked up Holliday and Freese in trades. But you could conclude from the data that he has been too reliant on the minor league system for help and that worked in other years. And we got good help from the minors in 2017. But the tough thing about relying on the minors is that we seldom get a draft pick earlier than 20th in the first round. The Bryants, Harpers and the Lindors don’t make it past the first 10 selections.
You can also make a case that Mo has been very reluctant to make trades for meaningful players other than Holliday.
All of this came crashing down in 2017.
My last post on what appears to be a pretty useless thread.
We have those that would still be against Matheny if the Cardinals won 130 games and swept everyone to win the world series.
Then others who would defend Matheny no matter what.No real communication. Sorry state today as everyone becomes an expert because of the internet and have no tolerance for others ideas. Don’t bother us with facts. We already know all the answers.
A study presented showed that Matheny was 30th in league in managing his starting pitchers. Didn’t see anyone pointing out that Madden was 29th in one part of the study and bottom third in the other. Or that Francona was bottom third in both portions of the study.
Questions are what relief pitchers are being compared to the starters. How many runs were actually scored in our starters last inning pitched and how many runs inherited by relievers were allowed to score. Or how many games we actually lost where starters gave up a run or more in their last inning pitched. Or how did our relievers compare to other teams. If I were manager I’m not sure who to trust among our bullpen staff and maybe I would like to go a little longer with a Lynn, Martinez or Wainwright. By the way the study confirmed my gut feeling but I’m still not convinced I am right. Would be nice to see some of that kind of discussion rather than what we have in all of these posts.
Happy posting.
I will try to be clearer on players we have that could be of interest to other teams.
Also somehow I missed that if we don’t sign Nicasio, Betances of the Yankees could be a nice pickup. He has closer stuff but is blocked by Chapman and New York has a lot of relief pitching depth.Yes Chavis was #93 on Baseball America and selected the Red Sox offensive player of the year by the team. 31 home runs in 2017 so could be a possibility to switch to 1b. Probably at least a year away now.
Continuing AL East
Tampa Bay’s minor league system has 5 of the top 100 Baseball American mid season rankings. That squares with their pre-season of #11 of the 30 major league teams. Shortstop Willy Adames and rhp Brent Honeywell are ranked 13 and 14. Adames has a full season at AAA and he could be the answer to 2b for the Rays.
– Who they may want. If they intend for Adames to be their future shortstop the Rays could be interested in Wong and I suspect that they would be interested in a good starting pitcher. They may be a team that would have an interest in Grichuk with their shortage in power. Wilson Ramos had only a .1 WAR and their backup Sucre .4 so they may be very interested in Kelly.
– Who we may want – Certainly Adames with the thought of moving DeJong to 2b or 3b. He has had high strikeout numbers with modest power so I suspect we would deal using Wong if we could get another lower level prospect and I would not trade even up for Kelly as well. Longoria has always been on the list but is pricey and pretty well reached his peak.Baltimore
Strengths – Some key parts in Machado, Jones, Shoop and Martini. Good potential young pitchers in Gausman and Bundy but drops off sharply from there. Castillo solid at c.
-Weakness – Holes in lineup. Aging and expensive Davis at 1b and Hardy probably done at ss. No closer with more than 18 saves and generally unimpressive pitching. Weak minor league system with only catcher Chance Sisco among BA’s top 100. Ranked #27 coming into season.
-Their interest – Pitchers, pitchers, pitchers and maybe an outfielder as a throwin.
-Our interest – Machado, Machado, Machado; Could possibly have for a couple of top pitching prospects. A potential beast. Wish he was under control longer. Would be great if we could get a contract extension with the trade.Toronto
Strengths – Solid parts in injury prone Tulowitzki, Donaldson and good defensive center fielder in Pillar. Arguably #1 prospect in Guerrero Jr. Also possible good prospects in Bichette Jr. and Lourdes Gurriel, the Cuban who had an unimpressive year.
Weaknesses – Age; combined with a major drop in performance in 17. 11 of the 13 starting position players and top 4 pitchers are age 30 or older. After 2 strong years closer Roberto Osuna had a significant drop off, always a bad thing in closers.
– Their interest – Probably any of our top pitching and outfield prospects. Also Kelly. Even though Russell Martin is signed until 2020 he is 34 and had a poor 2017. Since we have an interest in Donaldson they probably will try to sell high.
– Our interest – I am lukewarm on Donaldson but would probably rather have him than Longoria. We have the pieces to land him and it is probably a matter of reaching a reasonable agreement. I think Mo is always ready to walk away. Would love to have Guerrero Jr. He not only seems to have the high ceiling but is performing at that level so far. It is not unprecedented for a #1 prospect to be traded (Moncada
from Red Sox to White Sox last year, particularly from a team in distress. Don’t know if we would give up the established players required for a long term bet.Will look at AL Central in a few days.
AL East Possibilities
Boston
Strengths- offense except 1b with 31 year old Moreland. Sam Travis a so-so possibility to replace. Benintendi a potential super star. can play left or center field.
Front end of rotation Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz and Price. May be a top contender for Lynn as a free agent. Would have been a great trade deadline deal.
Bullpen with Kimbrel and depth behind him.
Weaknesses- Bench with only Eduardo Nunez with impact.
First base and possibly DH
Who they may want – Maybe Martinez or Voit to platoon with Moreland. Wacha, Reyes and Martinez but we would need a Benintendi in a deal for the latter two.
Who we would want – Benintendi would be a great #3 hitter. He and Devers (3b) have already been added and their minor system is a little thin. Bobby Dalbec (3b) a 2016 4th round choice is intriguing.New York
Strengths – Bullpen with Chapman, Betances, Green and Robertson.
– Catcher, outfield although Gardner and Ellsbury at 33 winding down from peak performances. Can Judge continue to thrive. Advanced from #6 prospect to record HR’s for rookie in 2017.
Weaknesses – 1b with Carter (653 OPS) and Bird (.190) -.7 WAR between them. Either Carp, Martinez or Voit would be and improvement but the Yankees can afford to go for better options if available.
-Starting pitching. They have the bodies but several are injury prone. May have solved with the acquisition of Sonny Gray.
Who they may want – Possibly one of our first basemen if another option is not available. A starting pitcher among Reyes, Weaver, Martinez or Wacha. Again they may go for Lynn as free agent.
Who we would want – Other than Judge who is certianly untouchable, only Sanchez seems to be more than a role player and we already have a surplus. Didi is excellent but probably untouchable too. Shortstop Gleybor Torres is their #1 prospect and is progressing. He could be available for a price if they don’t move him to second or third base.Tampa Bay
Strengths – Morrison a late bloomer at 1b, CF Kiermaier defense and Longoria.
– Young but still developing starting pitching staff-potential strength but not there yet. Colome two consecutive strong years in the pen.
Weaknesses – second base and DH (Duda not the answer). – Bullpen lacks depth and does bench. Team is similar to Cardinals with lots of pieces but few real impact performers. Only 3 players over .800 OPS among starters.None over .868. Will finish later with Baltimore and Toronto.Shildt has managed in the Cardinal system for years and has several championships under his belt. Why would Clapp move ahead of him. Clapp did a nice job at Memphis this year but had oodles of talent even after all of the callups.
Speaking of bullpen use, Clapp had a 3-1 lead behind Hudson in the AAA championship game and for whatever reason pulled him in the 4th and put in Josh Zeid with his 6.00+ ERA and sure enough Zeid was torched and Memphis never recovered.
