- This topic has 977 replies, 28 voices, and was last updated 17 hours, 58 minutes ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Voting is now closed, and the results are in…
40. Cade Winquest, RHP
41. Frank Elissalt, RHP
42. Yaxson Lucena, OF
Running List:
1. JJ Wetherholt, IF
2. Liam Doyle, LHP
3. Quinn Mathews, LHP
4. Rainiel Rodriguez, C
5. Joshua Baez, OF
6. Leonardo Bernal, C
7. Jimmy Crooks, C
8. Ixan Henderson, LHP
9. Brycen Mautz, LHP
10. Tekoah Roby, RHP
11. Jesus Baez, IF
12. Tink Hence, RHP
13. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
14. Yairo Padilla, IF
15. Deniel Ortiz, IF
16. Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
17. Ryan Mitchell, OF
18. Braden Davis, LHP
19. Tanner Franklin, RHP
20. Nathan Church, OF
21. Luis Gastelum, RHP
22. Blaze Jordan, IF
23. Andre Granillo RHP
24. Pete Hansen LHP
25. Zach Levenson, OF
26. Chase Davis, OF
27. Jack Gurevitch, IF
28. Bryan Torres, IF/OF
29. Mason Molina, LHP
30. Won-Bin Cho, OF
31. Nate Dohm, RHP
32. Sebastian Dos Santos, IF
33. Leonel Sequera, RHP
34. Andrew Dutkanych, RHP
35. Kenly Hunter, OF
36. Hancel Rincon, RHP
37. Cade Crossland, LHP
38. Ethan Young, RHP
39. Travis Honeyman, OF
40. Cade Winquest, RHP
41. Frank Elissalt, RHP
42. Yaxson Lucena, OFVoting is now open for the #43-46 prospects. Please remember to vote for 4 prospects this round.
Voting for this round will close at 12 PM CT/1 PM ET on Thursday, December 4th.
43. Matt Koperniak, OF (my #30). Matt should already be in, for reasons already mentioned. It’s more than a little ridiculous that an older DSL outfielder with literally 0 pedigree is in and a guy who’s on the 40 man with runway to play in the majors this year is not. What are the odds that Lucena outproduces Koperniak on the big league level…1%, maybe?
44. Royelny Strop, OF (my #34). There’s some pedigree here, and he’s legitimately young (11 months younger than Lucena, 3 months younger than Hunter, 5 months younger than Dos Santos, two days younger than Hernandez). He could return to the DSL again or maybe he moves to the complex. I like him to develop some power as he moves up the system. I had him a touch behind Hunter (my #33) as the top DSL guy. I’ll add comments about others sometime this week.
45. Josh Kross, C/IF (my #39). A gamer who improved his standing a little bit this year in the organization, he plays a little catcher, a little 1B. He probably won’t be a catcher long term, so the bat really has to work. But he did pop 16 homers across Palm Beach and Peoria, so if he can do that, he has a shot to make some hay when he arrives at Springfield sometime next year.
46. Mason Burns, RHP (my #40). He had a quietly great 2025 out of the pen in his first full pro season. He was closing games in the Springfield playoff run after rising three levels. The swing and miss is there, the shaky command is there. He has all the tools to be out next Granillo or Gastelum, except I believe he already has a better 2nd pitch to go with his elite slider, in that his fastball has some legitimate juice. He should be at Springfield to start 2026, and may be the 2nd from his draft class to reach the majors.
43. Kross (31)
44. Holiday (34)
45. Rajcic (35)
46. Graham (38)I think Holiday is getting forgotten about. I understand given his injury the whole first year. He’s also got a funky delivery that may not work long term. We will see. Graham is another name I haven’t really seen on here. Also injured. In a lot of ways I like him better than Holiday but I listed him lower here based solely on where they were drafted at (although different years).
#43. Cesar Prieto
#44. Michael Watson
#45. Keiverson Ramirez
#46. Max RajcicIMO, all of these players have a legitimate chance of seeing some major league action.
#43. Miguel Hernandez (my #28)
#44. Royel Strop (my #34)
#45. Matt Koperniak (my #35)
#46. Austin Love (my #36)I agree with others Koperniak doesn’t belong anywhere near this low. I have him 10 spot higher, but I had others higher than him that I hadn’t got through yet. Koperniak has strong side platoon bat upside still and you should be able to put up decent value if he achieves that for a few years.
Love I expect to move quickly this next year and maybe have a shot at the big league pen late in the year. He has good stuff and there was definitely some rust last year, but that was to be expected with how long he had been out. I expect more polish from him this year.
#43 Noah Mendlinger
#44 Miguel Hernandez
#45 Michael Watson
#46 Juan GarciaThere were 176 pitchers in the Dominican Summer League who threw at least 35 innings in 2025, and Juan Garcia was 2nd overall in K/BB at 9.50, and also 2nd in walk rate at 0.76 per 9 innings. Good pitcher’s physique at 6’2″ and 187, and he’s a young kid who won’t turn 18 until the end of May, 2026.
——————————————————–
“It’s more than a little ridiculous that an older DSL outfielder with literally 0 pedigree is in and a guy who’s on the 40-man with runway to play in the majors this year is not. What are the odds that Lucena outproduces Koperniak on the big league level…1%, maybe?”
I’d say it’s 20-30% that Lucena has more career WAR than Koperniak. (If someone offered me 10-1 odds, I’d certainly take it.) And as a practical matter, I don’t see a path to StL playing time for Matt K. unless multiple outfielders are dealt or demoted. The man was bad in AAA at age 25, then very good at 26, then bad again in 2025 at age 27. It’s just not a track record that demands MLB playing time.
For me, Lucena has perhaps a 3-5% chance to someday be an above-average MLB starter for a few years. And I’d put Koppy’s chance significantly below that. They’re both longshots, for different reasons, but Lucena has some visible upside for me.
And as a practical matter, I don’t see a path to StL playing time for Matt K. unless multiple outfielders are dealt or demoted. The man was bad in AAA at age 25, then very good at 26, then bad again in 2025 at age 27. It’s just not a track record that demands MLB playing time.
Your standard for “bad” is a little puzzling. Koperniak had a .784 OPS in Memphis in 2023 after he was called up. It took him a little time to get adjusted, but once he did, he was pretty good the last two months (0.884 OPS, 22 BB, 23 Ks).
You are right that his profile doesn’t demand MLB playing time. With Nootbaar likely to miss the start of the year, and Walker possibly starting in Memphis, there is a place for Koperniak to start the year, I think. It certainly wouldn’t hurt to see what we have there, as we will lack contact-average guys once we trade away Donovan.
“Your standard for ‘bad’ is a little puzzling. Koperniak had a .784 OPS in Memphis in 2023 after he was called up. It took him a little time to get adjusted, but once he did, he was pretty good the last two months (0.884 OPS, 22 BB, 23 Ks).”
Yeah, you kinda caught me there, 25. I’d meant to type “bad for a corner outfielder,” but then I saw that Koperniak did play a little center field last year (as he seems to do every season, upon investigation) so I removed the bit about corner outfield — but sloppily left in the “bad” descriptor.
As far as Memphis goes, Matt had a 97 OPS+ in ’23 and a breakout 128 in 2024…but then dropped off precipitously to an 85 this year at age 27. If he’d maintained his solid 2024 performance this season, I’d be much more optimistic about his MLB chances, in terms of both opportunity and performance.
Or to put it another way, if coming out of Spring Training there is a playing time choice between Koppy and Nathan Church, I think and hope the latter would get first shot. Church was excellent in AAA at age 24 (144 OPS+) and Steamer projects him to be a 95 OPS+ in the majors in 2026 (Koppy projects at 80).
Voting is now closed for the #43-46 positions…
43. Matt Koperniak, OF
44. Michael Watson, LHP
45. Josh Kross, C/IF
46. Cesar Prieto, IF
Running List:
1. JJ Wetherholt, IF
2. Liam Doyle, LHP
3. Quinn Mathews, LHP
4. Rainiel Rodriguez, C
5. Joshua Baez, OF
6. Leonardo Bernal, C
7. Jimmy Crooks, C
8. Ixan Henderson, LHP
9. Brycen Mautz, LHP
10. Tekoah Roby, RHP
11. Jesus Baez, IF
12. Tink Hence, RHP
13. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
14. Yairo Padilla, IF
15. Deniel Ortiz, IF
16. Chen-Wei Lin, RHP
17. Ryan Mitchell, OF
18. Braden Davis, LHP
19. Tanner Franklin, RHP
20. Nathan Church, OF
21. Luis Gastelum, RHP
22. Blaze Jordan, IF
23. Andre Granillo RHP
24. Pete Hansen LHP
25. Zach Levenson, OF
26. Chase Davis, OF
27. Jack Gurevitch, IF
28. Bryan Torres, IF/OF
29. Mason Molina, LHP
30. Won-Bin Cho, OF
31. Nate Dohm, RHP
32. Sebastian Dos Santos, IF
33. Leonel Sequera, RHP
34. Andrew Dutkanych, RHP
35. Kenly Hunter, OF
36. Hancel Rincon, RHP
37. Cade Crossland, LHP
38. Ethan Young, RHP
39. Travis Honeyman, OF
40. Cade Winquest, RHP
41. Frank Elissalt, RHP
42. Yaxson Lucena, OF
43. Matt Koperniak, OF
44. Michael Watson, LHP
45. Josh Kross, C/IF
46. Cesar Prieto, IFVoting is now open for the #47-50 prospects. Voting will end at Noon CT/1 PM ET on Sunday, December 7th.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.