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#11 Padilla
#12 Nathan ChurchChurch is the Brycen Mautz of position players. Excellent 2025 season, but not much at all prior to that. The thing that’s particularly impressive about Church, though, is that this year he flourished at AAA almost as much as AA. (At Springfield he had a 155 OPS+, and at Memphis it was 143. Great numbers, obviously.)
Yeah, he’s already 25. But he helps in the field and on the bases, and looks like he’ll be at least an adequate, roughly average hitter if given 20+ MLB at-bats per week. I doubt he’ll get that opportunity, but you never know what fate has in store.
Roby is expected to miss the entire 2026 season, isn’t that correct? Or has that been amended in some way? (Not trying to be snide here.)
#10 Yairo Padilla
Distinctly above average hitter for two years now, was the 4th-youngest regular in his league in 2025 — and the three younger players all struck out at least twice as often as Padilla. And speaking of strikeouts, Yairo showed marked plate discipline improvement within the season.
Started 10-48 with a dismal 3-to-12 walk-to-whiff ratio. After that, he hit .338 with an excellent 13/8 BB/K tally. That sort of in-season trend is especially encouraging for a player who even won’t turn 19 until next June.
Anyway, just for the record, in my previous post I did not intend to compare Yairo Padilla to Rainiel Rodriguez. Sorry that I left my post open to that interpretation. They are NOT comparable players at this point and have quite different track records as professionals. What I was clumsily attempting to relate was that in some quarters the reactions to their respective rookieball seasons (Rodriguez’ 2024 season and Padilla’s 2025 campaign) were indeed comparable, and, in my opinion, excessively dismissive by a fair bit.
Prospects in rookieball are on average not materially more or less likely to be MLB regulars than at any other level. It’s the evaluating that’s harder.
“Before this season this is where we were with Padilla:
Future Value: 35
Role: Up/down depth/reserve
Risk: ExtremeLess than 150 PAs in the FCL later he’s a top ten prospect? 7 extra base hits later he’s a top 10 prospect?
He literally hit a few singles and took a few walks versus FCL kids who mostly aren’t going anywhere in baseball. I do get that we are not overwhelmed with compelling top prospects, but jeesh.”
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I don’t know who the “we” is, in that first sentence. But when Fangraphs ranked Redbird farmhands on July 1st, Padilla was 7th and graded a 45+. Also, Yairo is currently ranked 9th by MLB Pipeline (MLB.com). And I’m pretty sure that Baseball America rates him rather highly as well.
So if there’s a compelling cause NOT to consider Padilla a top 10 Cardinal, the national sources certainly aren’t talking about it.
It seems to me, we went through this a year ago, nearly word-for-word, at this very website, with Rainiel Rodriguez, after he dominated the Dominican Summer League. Some people wanted to argue that rookieball batting performances are utterly meaningless. And that’s simply incorrect, just like 12 months ago.
The level of competition does matter profoundly, of course. Rookieball has less meaning than A-Ball, which has less than High-A, which has less than AA, and so forth. But no level of paid baseball is valueless when trying to project ballplayers.
“I am with Nigel on this one. Of all the top players being voted for all have either injury history or upside limitations. Hence has the upside but likely a bullpen guy. Both Baseball America and Major League Pipeline have Padilla ranked higher than most are projecting.”
I agree with Sooner here.
#9 Yairo PadillaTwo professional seasons, both successful & healthy. Scouting reports are quite positive. Walk and whiff rate both improved from 2024 to 2025. Just turned 18 in June. A lot to like, Yairo just got overshadowed by the meteoric rise of Rainiel Rodriguez. Definitely a top 150-200 type prospect, and that’s worthy of the #9 slot.
#8 Ixan Henderson
What JNevel said. Plus a few fine splits in AA this year.
The southpaw allowed lefties to hit just .199 and slug .292, but more importantly permitted righties just .216 and .296. Balanced splits means starter, not reliever. When the splits are nice and low like this, that is.
Home, tremendous .553 OPS allowed; on the road still excellent at .617.
Finally, OPS with bases empty .630. But men on base, just .518 across 217 plate appearances.
Ix has been generally healthy for four straight years, and built up his innings at a manageable pace: 80, 90, 105, 130. No pitcher is a great bet to be durable, but he’s a better bet than many, if not most.
“Bob, I suspect the catcher ranks will thin out by opening day. I don’t see much point worrying about rostering and playing time right now.”
You could be right, Bling. I hope you are. I hope that some of the roster clog is cleared up, but I don’t think that’s going to happen at catcher, since trading a backstop doesn’t save ownership any money.
I firmly believe that’s Chaim Bloom’s entire offseason goal: cut player payroll. (More specifically and especially, find an Arenado trade partner who won’t demand that Redbird ownership pay most of Nolan’s salary going forward.)
#7 Crooks
Disappointing 2025 season, after his terrific 2024. But his overall track record (OPS+ over 120 everywhere except Memphis) is quite good, particularly at backstop.
Question is, will he develop better playing 6 days a week in AAA or 2-4 days a week in a time share with Pedro Pages? I think the answer is the former, but the club will likely choose the latter. Just a feeling I’ve got.
#4 Rainiel Rodriguez
As for scouting reports on his glovework, MLB.com currently says this:
“He threw out 32.4% in 2024, but evaluators question how his arm strength will play at higher levels.”I would describe that as a vaguely neutral overview.
Here’s Fangraphs from July:
“He does at least a little bit of everything well, and some stuff (like hitting for power and playing good defense) he does a lot of.”They then go on to praise his blocking of pitches in the dirt, but rate his throwing footwork below average — the latter of which is offset however by an above average exchange and accuracy. Fangraphs grades his fielding at 40/60, meaning below average right now relative to MLB, but distinctly above average in the long run.
I don’t have a Keith Law or ESPN scouting report for Rai-Rod, but the above assuages my (quite mild) concerns, at least for the time being.
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“My notes say Rodriguez spent most of the year at Palm Beach and hit .249.”
True enough. But after his 9-for-56 start there, he hit .278 with a .982 OPS. And more walks than whiffs. He’s ready for Peoria.
#3 Rainiel Rodriguez
The errors were a little elevated this year, but the passed balls were distinctly better than average and he gunned 30% of base stealers (32% in 2024). So right now there’s no reason to think he’ll be a Gold Glover — and also no real reason to think he can’t stick behind the plate long term. Upside equals Wetherholt, maybe even exceeds him. Less likelihood, of course, due to backstop attrition.
Over the past two years, 1,579 minor leaguers accrued at least 400 plate appearances. Rainiel has the highest OPS+ of them all, at 172. That’s a pretty special bat.
“Hmmmm Bob Reed moved Rodriguez above Bernal. Interesting.”
Yeah, that was a combination of things, Ny. Leo unfortunately didn’t hit a lick from June 14 until the end of the season (.207 average, .272 slugging) and the passed balls were elevated as well. Add those factors to the mild concerns over his conditioning, and Bernal has slipped back a bit. Probably in the 50-60 range among all prospects — he’s still excellent at gunning runners, among the finest prospects in any organization.
But what Rainiel has done is exceptionally rare for a kid catcher. Two professional seasons, two great years at the plate. The bat has Ivan Herrera potential.
Doyle’s had just one good year as a college pitcher, and just one year throwing more than 60 innings. I think he could be Hrabosky Hredux, which is certainly a top 100 type prospect.
But I can’t put him above all of the remaining Redbird prospects. Too much risk of regression, and too volatile a personality — for anything but reliever, that is.
Rainiel Rodriguez at #2, please. National rankers are placing him around #50 right now, and that’s just a little bit light, I think. More like 35-40 overall for me.
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The Cards may have a top 8-10 farm, mayyybe even top 6 or 7, but that’s about as far as I’d go on that front. Too catcher-heavy, and too many arms unlikely to ever throw 160 MLB innings.
“Willie, our last three managers have been rookies. Maybe we will try something different next time.”
Well, over the past 50 years or so, the Cards have had three fallow periods. Obviously we are in the third one now. (Thanks, Mo. Thanks, Ollie.)
It took Herzog to pull them out of the first, and LaRussa to extract them from the second. The year before Whitey took over, the club was 74-88, and the next season they played .578 baseball. Don Tony inherited a team with a dismal .434 winning percentage and went 88-74 in his first season and advanced to the NLCS.
And the sport ain’t changed THAT much since then. So, yeah, it sure feels to me like a creative, decisive manager with an excellent track record can immediately turn a team around nearly 180 degrees. (Of course, for the Birds that’ll be in 2027 rather than 2026, as Ollie is here to finish off his contract.)
Not that I would object to Stubby Clapp; in fact he’s the only guy without an MLB managerial pedigree I would not object to. Much as I love Pujols & Molina, we know nothing about their managerial chops. But we know about Stubby. He’s not too old, he’s used to managing young players, and he knows this roster. But mostly, it’s very hard to win back-to-back AAA championships, as there’s plenty of personnel turnover from year to year. One title could be a fluke. Not two in a row, no way.
Lastly, thanks for the kind comments over the past week or so, fellow birdfans.
Clearly, Chaim Bloom wasn’t hired to win baseball games. As bizarre as that may sound, I believe it wholeheartedly. I think that the 2023 disaster broke the brains of ownership, broke their spirit, and they just don’t care about winning anymore, not really, not with any passion whatsoever. They don’t care enough to have a payroll commensurate with their revenues (12th-highest revenue in MLB in 2024 at $398MM), and that’s disappointing.
But much worse than that, they also don’t care enough to hire an experienced, successful manager or qualified hitting/pitching coaches — and that trio wouldn’t cost much more than a middling middle reliever. Ownership just doesn’t care. It’s one thing for multi-multimillionaires and billionaires to be cheap & greedy. That’s not surprising, much less shocking. But it truly IS shocking to me when owners of previously proud sports franchises don’t care enough about winning to make even the slightest effort toward excellence. And that’s where we are now.
So Bloom is here to continue slashing payroll, full stop. Payroll is borderline bottom 10 right now and obviously only going lower. In an era when 40% of teams make the playoffs, they’ve missed out for three years running, and it doesn’t bother them enough to do anything about it. Apparently until there’s an ownership change, October baseball under the Arch will have to be a happy accident.
Welcome to the St. Louis Devil Rays.
“You could drop the minors baggage as Leahy has. What’s to lose? He is “ruined” as a reliever if he doesn’t succeed in the rotation?”
Here’s what’s to lose. See if this doesn’t sound like exactly what will happen.
Marmol watches Leahy in Spring Training and sees an extremely inconsistent but occasionally effective starting pitcher — just like the 2025 versions of Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas. So Marmol decides that Leahy has the raw talent to be a starting pitcher and sends him to the mound over and over in 2026, despite an ERA around 5.00, or maybe worse. There are no obviously superior alternatives, so this goes on for two or three years, or however long Ollie is permitted to (mis)manage the club.That’s the risk. That’s what’s to lose. A potentially excellent reliever is lost and another crappy Pallantesque starter is gained. At a time, mind you, when really good relievers are more valuable than any other moment in the history of the sport. I realize I don’t need to say this, but a reliever with an ERA of 3.00 helps you win, and a starter with an ERA of 5.00 helps you lose.
What makes this whole thing truly absurd, is that this Redbird combo of manager/pitching coach that’s supposed to turn Kyle Leahy into an effective starting major league pitcher, has over the past two seasons somehow turned an already terrific MLB starter into a mediocre journeyman. Sonny Gray, 2019-2021 with Cincy, ERA+ of 135. In 2022-2023 with the Twins, ERA+ of 144. Last two years with Ollie & Dusty, ERA+ of 101. Sonny’s still got the goods. Outstanding health, spectacular K/BB ratios, best of his career. But he isn’t preventing runs.
So with Cincy, he was Randy Johnson or Rube Waddell (both 135 career ERA+)
With Minnesota, he was roughly Roger Clemens or Addie Joss (both 143)
As a Cardinal, he’s been Oil Can Boyd or Rick Wise (each 101)But I digress. Point is, Leahy has struggled badly for year upon year, and now he’s finally found something that works for him at the highest level of his profession. Leave him alone and let the man have a few good years out of the bullpen.
Kyle Leahy is 28 years old and the last time he was remotely effective as a *starting* pitcher was when he was 22 years old in Low A-ball. In High-A his ERA was 6.30, in AA it was 6.28, and in AAA it was 6.31 across 2022/23 before switching to full-time reliever.
To the best of my knowledge, in the 150 or so years of major league baseball, no pitcher with Kyle’s overwhelmingly consistent track record of frustration and futility as a minor league starter has ever gone on to be an effective MLB starter. Maybe Kyle Leahy will be the first. Or maybe he’s a 17th-round draft pick who’s found his niche and the Cardinal organization should be overjoyed with his development and leave him where he’s finally having success.
The thing about having him throw 88 innings out of the bullpen this year (most in the Senior Circuit), it’s a significant health risk. And the thing with converting him back to starting…well, why mess with success?
Cardinal starting pitchers this year on regular rest: 3.91 ERA
With one extra day of rest: 4.90 ERA
Two or more extra days: 5.52 ERAThis pattern has been true for at least a couple of months now.
And yet, only 38 starts (25% of Cardinal starts) have been made with regular rest.And that’s Marmol in a nutshell, really. He does things that logically seem like they should work (extra rest for starting pitchers, Brendan Donovan batting leadoff, etc.), but when it turns out that they do NOT work, he keeps doing them anyway — a well-known definition of insanity.
Last winter I stated that Cincy, Pitt, and Colorado had the only managers for whom I definitely would not trade Ollie Marmol. Well, Bell, Black, and Shelton have all been fired since then.
Can anyone here name three current managers (with at least two years of MLB track record) they feel are worse than Marmol? I can no longer name even one.
…but if you’re thinking about the future, Brian, then don’t you shut down Leahy now? Or rather, a couple weeks ago? Also, if they’d used Leahy (sub-3.00 ERA) instead of Graceffo (ERA over 5.00) on Monday, then there’s a pretty good chance the team is one game closer — that changes the odds.
Or to put it another way, good Keymaster. Can you imagine Whitey Herzog giving up on the division race if he trailed the cubs by 4 games with 18 left to play? Me neither. That’s not what good managers do, no matter what Fangraphs has to say about their chances.
Thanks for the responses, guys, and maybe I’m bad at math, but I don’t think that a team that’s 4 games out of a playoff spot with 3 weeks to go is in really a position for “auditions” at crucial moments of games. (Not that one or two appearances tells you anything about any pitcher or any hitter that you didn’t already know anyway.)
Granted, a manager should always, at every point of every season, be weighing the present & future of the club, and trying to strike a balance between the two. But to effectively throw away a game to garner theoretical information when a much better option is available, is something you do in April or May, not September. Especially not when you’re trying to eek into the postseason for the first time in three years.
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And anyway, none of this Gordon Graceffo theorizing addresses the matter of Kyle Leahy being used in back-to-back mopup roles over the past few days. For the past month or two, Kyle Leahy has been on pace for 80-85 innings, an almost unheardof total these days for a 1-2 inning MLB reliever. Each additional appearance is a therefore health risk, particularly for someone who has barely any life experience in a bullpen pitching role. Moreover, Leahy is someone who might have a significant MLB role over the next several seasons. Why take an injury chance on mopup innings? A real manager wouldn’t.
Are we so numb to mediocre baseball that we’ve forgotten what real managers do and don’t do?
I don’t watch every second of every postgame press conference, so maybe someone can help me with this. Has the local press asked Oliver Marmol about how much and/or in which situations he’s using Kyle Leahy?
Leahy has been a valued setup guy for several months, right? He’s been a trusted high-leverage guy, even to the point of garnering a save on August 30th. But on Sept. 6th he entered the game with the Cardinals trailing by multiple runs. Then on Sept. 8th he was NOT used when Miles Mikolas left the game with two-on, none out, and the Cards nursing a 2-0 lead. (Graceffo inexplicably entered, got shelled, game lost.) Then on the 9th, Leahy enters another game with the Birds trailing by two runs, just like three days earlier. And to top it off the manager left him in for two innings and 30 pitches.
If you’re gonna burn the guy out, at least use him when it matters. Right? I mean, thanks to his lengthy Tuesday outing, now Leahy can’t be used at all on Wednesday if the Cards are protecting a small lead in the 6th or 7th inning. This is just bizarre.
The manager does not create the roster. The manager does not create the roster. The manager does not create roster.
We can create a love child between Tony LaRussa, Whitey Herzog, Joe Torre, Walter Alston, Connie Mack, Sparky Anderson, and Bruce Bochy and they are not going to win with an inadequate roster. I am amazed at how that is not obvious.
Agreed. This year’s roster is so-so. Even a great manager with great coaches wouldn’t win more than 85-87 games unless luck was on his side. But the St. Louis Cardinals roster for 2023 and 2024 was as strong as any in the Central division. Please see previous post.
The question for me is, after 2026 and presumably yet another year of missing the playoffs, will ownership bite the bullet and invest 5-6 million per year on an established, highly successful veteran MLB manager — i.e., spend money to make money via excellent baseball? Or will they again go cheap and promote from within? I’d be fine with two-time Triple-A champ Stubby Clapp, but nobody else currently in the organization is worthy of the job I don’t think.
“I’ve watched him manage an underwhelming roster for the past three years and he’s probably done about as good as anyone would have.”
“…the rosters he has had to deal with have been half baked.”
Most people who frequent this website know that I despise Ollie Marmol, as a person and manager. Okay, I despise the manager and merely dislike the person. Anyway I won’t make any claim to disinterested objectivity. And don’t worry, I won’t bore you with a lengthy itemized list of Marmol’s managerial blunders.
But I disagree in the strongest possible terms with the two bolded statements, and I believe a brief (disinterested and objective) review of 2023 and 2024 preseason expectations should illustrate why. First, the Cardinals were decisively favored to win their division in 2023, when Ollie Marmol led them to last place. Per this CBS link, in 2023 the Cards had a preseason Vegas line of 89 wins, tied for the 8th-best number in MLB. Second best in the N.L. Central was Milwaukee (84.5). Next were cubs (78), Reds (67.5), and the Bucs (66). So entering the 2023 season, the Cards were not only favored to win the division, they were considered more than 20 games better than Cincy and Pitt — two of the teams they wound up behind. Link: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-picks-every-teams-2023-season-win-total-projection-plus-eight-best-bets/
Then in 2024 the Redbirds entered the regular season as N.L. Central co-favorites with the cubs at 84.5 wins on the BetMGM over/under totals board. The Reds were barely behind at 82.5, then the Brewers (76.5) and Pirates (75.5). Link: https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/mlb-team-betting-preview-predictions-bm23/
I think it’s reasonable to argue that if a team is favored or co-favored by Vegas to win their division, as the Birds were in both 2023 and 2024, then by definition they have a roster sufficient to do so. Barring an inordinate number of injuries, of course. (The Cards have in fact been one of MLB’s healthier teams over the past few years, so no excuse for the manager there.)
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As for the offseason, I wish I could agree with you, Pugs, about Ollie being let go. But the DeWitts are now such Ebenezeresque cheapskates — team payroll ranks roughly 20th in MLB now despite the club ranking 12th in revenue in 2024 — that I can’t see them paying anyone not to manage this team. I think Marmol gets another year. Another irrelevant, dreary year. And yeah, it matters. It matters a lot. Because this roster is not overflowing with established steady veterans. Instead it has numerous young and young-ish hitters and pitchers who could and should be developing right now — and they aren’t. Because of the MLB hitting and pitching coaches, and most especially because of the manager.
With his inside-the-park homer last night, our Incredible Shrinking Catcher now has a .999 OPS over the past two months. In A-ball, at 18 years of age.
More specifically, Rainiel since June 22 has a slashline of .280/.432/.567 with a stellar 35-to-28 ratio of walks to whiffs, across 192 plate appearances. And even if he’s 5’ 8” and doesn’t grow another quarter inch, he’ll still be bigger than Yogi Berra, Hack Wilson, Joe Morgan, Jose Altuve, and several other superstars. And he’d be only an inch shorter than my favorite non-Yadi backstop, Campy. So I’m not fretting a bit about Rai-Rod’s height.
It looks like at full maturity he’ll have a 50-55 hit tool, 60-65 power, and 65-70 patience, i.e., a 12-15% walk rate. Assuming average health/durability, I’d put his 50th percentile outcome at a roughly 15 WAR career; 75th percentile is Mickey Tettleton, and 90th is Gene Tenace.
“At this point having Mikolas pitch is just trolling the fan base.”
“What are the alternatives?”
I would say there are two alternatives. One involves a AAA pitcher. Memphis plays in the International League, home to 20 teams. In the International League this year, 18 starting pitchers have made at least 19 starts. The lowest ERA and 2nd-lowest WHIP of those 18 pitchers belongs to a journeyman reliever who has been converted to starting this year. His name is Curtis Taylor and he pitches for Memphis.
It doesn’t matter now, since the last wildcard team is 7 1/2 games ahead of the Cards, but a few weeks ago Pallante or Mikolas could and should have been replaced by Taylor in the rotation. Not because Taylor is going to be a rotation fixture going forward, but because the thing that absolutely is NOT working needs to be abandoned even if it means trying something unfamiliar that might also fail. Taylor has earned a chance. You never know when you might get a Simontacchi Hot Streak from some minor league veteran. (For you kids out there, Jason Simontacchi was a non-prospect in his late 20’s having success in AAA — just like Curtis Taylor right now — when the Cards called him up in 2002. In his first 13 major league starts he posted an ERA of 2.82.)
The other alternative was used to great effect in Detroit last year by manager A. J. Hinch. He spent the second half of 2024 rallying the Tigers to a playoff spot by rejecting his lesser starting pitchers and utilizing good relievers to eat up many “starter innings.” Basically he used 3 or 4 conventional starters for much of the second half, and fed the rest of the starts to bullpen guys like Holton, Brieske, Faedo, et. al. It was creative & risky and it worked spectacularly well.
