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“It’s not a long shot that Leahy could be our best SP the first half. As long as he doesn’t forget how to relieve, where’s the risk Bob?”
Here’s the risk.
Marmol watches Leahy in Spring Training and sees an extremely inconsistent but occasionally effective starting pitcher — just like the 2025 versions of Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas. So Marmol decides that Leahy has the raw talent to be a starting pitcher and sends him to the mound over and over in 2026, despite an ERA around 5.00, or maybe worse. There are no obviously superior alternatives, so this goes on and on, perhaps for two or three years, or however long Ollie is permitted to (mis)manage the club.And so a very good reliever is transformed via terrible decision-making into a bad starter. Bad starters become good relievers all the time. It’s practically an MLB tradition. But they do NOT go back to starting and have success. Maybe someone has, but I cannot name a single example. I invite the optimists out there to do so.
“I will be surprised if they spend the $20 mil on anyone, their payroll cut in the last 2 years is pretty drastic.”
This is correct, of course. As in Boston, Bloom was hired to cut player payroll, full stop. Recall that halfway through the 2025 season, Derrick Goold told us that based upon his information from Mo, Bloom, and the front office, the club planned to invest little or nothing in free agents. (And I don’t think anyone here expects the club to add payroll via trade.)
That said, given the present roster, I actually DO think they’ll sign some free agent veteran starter along the lines of the Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson inkings of a few years ago, as insurance of sorts. But cheaper and worse. Probably in the 5-7 million range. I honestly wouldn’t put it past them to bring back Mikolas on some incentive-laden contract.
Rotation then becomes Liberatore, McGreevy, Fitts, Pallante, Mr.X., with Quinn Mathews in the wings at Memphis. I expect and pray that 28-year-old Kyle Leahy is so awful as a starter in Spring Training that the club promptly abandons this misguided return to starting, where he was a dismal failure in the minors. The man has at long last found a niche where he’s very good, so leave him there for Heaven’s sake.
“Payroll is now down from $117M to $102M for 2026.”
And team revenues were $400M, in 2024. Ownership used to equally prioritize profits and victories, but no more. Pretty much indifferent to the latter, in fact.
I am glad for Sonny, though. With a real MLB pitching coach and manager, he’s now my longshot betting choice for A.L. Cy Young in 2026.
Fitts projects even worse than Pallante in 2026, per Steamer. The southpaw Clarke has upside but is extremely unlikely to get there due to wildness + injuries. So it’s more or less a straight salary dump by my lights. Trading Nolan Arenado would clear opportunities for other talented guys. Trading Gray just throws in the towel on 2026 — after three consecutive seasons without October baseball under the Arch. Disgraceful.
#31 Leonel Sequera
#32 Sebastian Dos Santos
#33 Kenley HunterYeah, it’s a long wait for the DSL guys. (In 2017, Ivan Herrera posted a 151 OPS+ in the Dominican Summer League, and it was 2024 before he was a very good MLB hitter.) But Dos Santos may very well play on the left side of the infield long term, and Hunter has a good defensive rep in center field. So the upside for each is substantial.
An aside: the Cards’ top 4 DSL hitters were all just 17, and they averaged a stellar 149 OPS+ this year. It’s a very interesting quartet. I don’t think there’s a potential star there, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they get an above average regular plus a good bench guy from that foursome.
#29 Leonel Sequera
#30 Sebastian Dos SantosAmong teenage starting pitchers in full season baseball, Sequera was 3rd in innings (108) and posted a solid 3.45 FIP. His heater is mid-90’s, he’s been healthy for two years, and there are no red flags in terms of walks, homers, etc.
Dos Santos was the sole 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League to register an OPS+ of 151 or better while walking more than whiffing and tallying a Speed Score of 7.7 or higher. It doesn’t make him the best prospect in the 50-team league or anything — but it does make him a prospect.
#27 Leonel Sequera
#28 Sebastian Dos SantosAs Chitown articulated earlier, Dos Santos dominated the DSL at 17 while playing shortstop, stealing some bases, and walking more than whiffing. That’s a nifty skillset.
The tipping point for me was when I dug a bit deeper and found that SDS only struck out once in his last 50 trips to the plate. Hitting for average + hitting for power + not fanning = mastery. And when a farmhand can completely master a level of competition that he’s young for, that’s a big marker for future success.
#23 Leo Sequera
#24 Andre GranilloHe doesn’t get my vote yet, but one note on Jack Gurevitch. His pro debut was a disaster, but batting at Palm Beach may have had an exaggerated effect on him. The samples are miniscule but check these splits:
Home: .378 OPS
Road: 1.033Now that you’ve mentioned Sebastian Dos Santos, ChiTown, I think one matter bears clarifying. Dos Santos when signed was listed at 6’0″ and 173 lbs. TCN Link: https://thecardinalnation.com/cardinals-announce-12-international-signings-to-open-2025-period/
But now all sources seem to list him at 140. I strongly suspect the 140 was from a year or two before he signed, and that he’s really around that 173 number. The 173 just makes so much more sense, especially because kids who weigh 140 pounds don’t whack 21 extra base hits in 38 games at any level above Pony League.
#21 Leonel Sequera
#22 Andre GranilloAndre is a bit like Nathan Church in a way. The righty reliever dominated AA and AAA, but was mediocre in MLB, and kinda sorta longish in the tooth. I think Granillo should (or at least could) be a solid 7th/8th inning guy by mid 2026. If nothing else, the man has been healthy: 65 IP this year, 68 innings last season, and 52-55 innings in the two years before that.
I really like the Kenly Hunter mention above, but for me it’s still just a wee bit early for DSL guys. Not much, just a little.
#19 Nathan Church
#20 Leonel SequeraAt age 19 in full-season ball, Sequera made 24 starts this year with an excellent FIP of 3.45. Yeah, his ERA wasn’t so hot (4.33), and he only averaged 4 1/2 innings per start. But hey, Sequera still logged 30 more innings in 2025 alone than Tanner Franklin posted in his entire 3-year collegiate career.
It’s a mid-90’s fastball for Sequera, with a solid slider and (I suspect) an underrated straight change. I say that because he’s had distinct reverse splits each of the past two campaigns — lefty bats managed an OPS barely over .600 against Leo in both ’24 and ’25. It’s a cliche, I realize, but shutting down opposite-handed batters usually requires a good changeup. Youth, health, minimum daily requirement of velocity. I like him.
#17 Nathan Church
#18 Braden DavisChurch fairly dominated AA and AAA at age 24 (excellent OPS and BB/K tally) and offers value both in the field and on the bases. I understand downgrading him for his mediocre pre-2025 hitting performance, but it feels like folks may also be overreacting to his micro-sample of 50something dismal AB’s in the majors.
Davis’ strikeout-to-base hit ratio was 3rd in all of the minors in 2025 among the 691 starters with 70+ innings pitched. First and second were uber-prospects Jonah Tong and Trey Yesavage.
Winquest was 25 in AA, and Franklin had one of the best head coaches in the country and still couldn’t get college hitters out (career ERA 5.61, and 4.89 in 2025). So I don’t think much about either guy.
Davis in 2025 allowed just 58 hits in 110 innings, with 153 strikeouts. Those are tremendous numbers, obviously. Peoria & Palm Beach are highly sympathetic pitching environments, but even adjusting for that advantage, Davis had a very impressive campaign. But those 75 walks….
Pete Hansen has made all his starts for three years running, and guys like that sometimes have a breakthrough a bit later, like in their mid-late-20’s. Lefties, especially. So I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he’s a solid #4/5 MLB starter in a couple of years. Due to durability, Hansen’s a little more likely to be a starter long term — but Davis WAY more upside if he can remain a rotation piece.
#15 Nathan Church
#16 Deniel OrtizI do like Braden Davis also — but he needs to fix that base-on-balls problem a bit more, to be a viable starting pitcher prospect. If he does get the walk rate down to, say, 4 per 9 IP like his last year of college ball, then look out. Because the strikeouts and suppression of longballs are excellent.
In his only pro season, Ortiz at age 20 posted a 152 OPS+ across Low-A and High-A (OBP north of .400 at both levels). Even without the steals (39 of 48), he’d be plenty worthy of votes at this slot.
#11 Padilla
#12 Nathan ChurchChurch is the Brycen Mautz of position players. Excellent 2025 season, but not much at all prior to that. The thing that’s particularly impressive about Church, though, is that this year he flourished at AAA almost as much as AA. (At Springfield he had a 155 OPS+, and at Memphis it was 143. Great numbers, obviously.)
Yeah, he’s already 25. But he helps in the field and on the bases, and looks like he’ll be at least an adequate, roughly average hitter if given 20+ MLB at-bats per week. I doubt he’ll get that opportunity, but you never know what fate has in store.
Roby is expected to miss the entire 2026 season, isn’t that correct? Or has that been amended in some way? (Not trying to be snide here.)
#10 Yairo Padilla
Distinctly above average hitter for two years now, was the 4th-youngest regular in his league in 2025 — and the three younger players all struck out at least twice as often as Padilla. And speaking of strikeouts, Yairo showed marked plate discipline improvement within the season.
Started 10-48 with a dismal 3-to-12 walk-to-whiff ratio. After that, he hit .338 with an excellent 13/8 BB/K tally. That sort of in-season trend is especially encouraging for a player who even won’t turn 19 until next June.
Anyway, just for the record, in my previous post I did not intend to compare Yairo Padilla to Rainiel Rodriguez. Sorry that I left my post open to that interpretation. They are NOT comparable players at this point and have quite different track records as professionals. What I was clumsily attempting to relate was that in some quarters the reactions to their respective rookieball seasons (Rodriguez’ 2024 season and Padilla’s 2025 campaign) were indeed comparable, and, in my opinion, excessively dismissive by a fair bit.
Prospects in rookieball are on average not materially more or less likely to be MLB regulars than at any other level. It’s the evaluating that’s harder.
“Before this season this is where we were with Padilla:
Future Value: 35
Role: Up/down depth/reserve
Risk: ExtremeLess than 150 PAs in the FCL later he’s a top ten prospect? 7 extra base hits later he’s a top 10 prospect?
He literally hit a few singles and took a few walks versus FCL kids who mostly aren’t going anywhere in baseball. I do get that we are not overwhelmed with compelling top prospects, but jeesh.”
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I don’t know who the “we” is, in that first sentence. But when Fangraphs ranked Redbird farmhands on July 1st, Padilla was 7th and graded a 45+. Also, Yairo is currently ranked 9th by MLB Pipeline (MLB.com). And I’m pretty sure that Baseball America rates him rather highly as well.
So if there’s a compelling cause NOT to consider Padilla a top 10 Cardinal, the national sources certainly aren’t talking about it.
It seems to me, we went through this a year ago, nearly word-for-word, at this very website, with Rainiel Rodriguez, after he dominated the Dominican Summer League. Some people wanted to argue that rookieball batting performances are utterly meaningless. And that’s simply incorrect, just like 12 months ago.
The level of competition does matter profoundly, of course. Rookieball has less meaning than A-Ball, which has less than High-A, which has less than AA, and so forth. But no level of paid baseball is valueless when trying to project ballplayers.
“I am with Nigel on this one. Of all the top players being voted for all have either injury history or upside limitations. Hence has the upside but likely a bullpen guy. Both Baseball America and Major League Pipeline have Padilla ranked higher than most are projecting.”
I agree with Sooner here.
#9 Yairo PadillaTwo professional seasons, both successful & healthy. Scouting reports are quite positive. Walk and whiff rate both improved from 2024 to 2025. Just turned 18 in June. A lot to like, Yairo just got overshadowed by the meteoric rise of Rainiel Rodriguez. Definitely a top 150-200 type prospect, and that’s worthy of the #9 slot.
#8 Ixan Henderson
What JNevel said. Plus a few fine splits in AA this year.
The southpaw allowed lefties to hit just .199 and slug .292, but more importantly permitted righties just .216 and .296. Balanced splits means starter, not reliever. When the splits are nice and low like this, that is.
Home, tremendous .553 OPS allowed; on the road still excellent at .617.
Finally, OPS with bases empty .630. But men on base, just .518 across 217 plate appearances.
Ix has been generally healthy for four straight years, and built up his innings at a manageable pace: 80, 90, 105, 130. No pitcher is a great bet to be durable, but he’s a better bet than many, if not most.
“Bob, I suspect the catcher ranks will thin out by opening day. I don’t see much point worrying about rostering and playing time right now.”
You could be right, Bling. I hope you are. I hope that some of the roster clog is cleared up, but I don’t think that’s going to happen at catcher, since trading a backstop doesn’t save ownership any money.
I firmly believe that’s Chaim Bloom’s entire offseason goal: cut player payroll. (More specifically and especially, find an Arenado trade partner who won’t demand that Redbird ownership pay most of Nolan’s salary going forward.)
#7 Crooks
Disappointing 2025 season, after his terrific 2024. But his overall track record (OPS+ over 120 everywhere except Memphis) is quite good, particularly at backstop.
Question is, will he develop better playing 6 days a week in AAA or 2-4 days a week in a time share with Pedro Pages? I think the answer is the former, but the club will likely choose the latter. Just a feeling I’ve got.
#4 Rainiel Rodriguez
As for scouting reports on his glovework, MLB.com currently says this:
“He threw out 32.4% in 2024, but evaluators question how his arm strength will play at higher levels.”I would describe that as a vaguely neutral overview.
Here’s Fangraphs from July:
“He does at least a little bit of everything well, and some stuff (like hitting for power and playing good defense) he does a lot of.”They then go on to praise his blocking of pitches in the dirt, but rate his throwing footwork below average — the latter of which is offset however by an above average exchange and accuracy. Fangraphs grades his fielding at 40/60, meaning below average right now relative to MLB, but distinctly above average in the long run.
I don’t have a Keith Law or ESPN scouting report for Rai-Rod, but the above assuages my (quite mild) concerns, at least for the time being.
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“My notes say Rodriguez spent most of the year at Palm Beach and hit .249.”
True enough. But after his 9-for-56 start there, he hit .278 with a .982 OPS. And more walks than whiffs. He’s ready for Peoria.
#3 Rainiel Rodriguez
The errors were a little elevated this year, but the passed balls were distinctly better than average and he gunned 30% of base stealers (32% in 2024). So right now there’s no reason to think he’ll be a Gold Glover — and also no real reason to think he can’t stick behind the plate long term. Upside equals Wetherholt, maybe even exceeds him. Less likelihood, of course, due to backstop attrition.
Over the past two years, 1,579 minor leaguers accrued at least 400 plate appearances. Rainiel has the highest OPS+ of them all, at 172. That’s a pretty special bat.
“Hmmmm Bob Reed moved Rodriguez above Bernal. Interesting.”
Yeah, that was a combination of things, Ny. Leo unfortunately didn’t hit a lick from June 14 until the end of the season (.207 average, .272 slugging) and the passed balls were elevated as well. Add those factors to the mild concerns over his conditioning, and Bernal has slipped back a bit. Probably in the 50-60 range among all prospects — he’s still excellent at gunning runners, among the finest prospects in any organization.
But what Rainiel has done is exceptionally rare for a kid catcher. Two professional seasons, two great years at the plate. The bat has Ivan Herrera potential.
