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This is a bottom line business. We can all conjure up certain statistics to reinforce our stubborn predispositions but the bottom line is that we are in a pattern of year end regression. A more fruitful use of time would be to determine why this is and how to reverse it.
I don’t consider myself to be a MM basher. I have stated repeatedly that he has proven that he can win with a good roster but to actually compare him to Herzog, Torre, and LaRussa is laughable at this point. MM needs to win at least one WS to get into that discussion.
But if you want facts, then let’s look at our regression over the last few years. Those are empirical facts, not feelings or hunches.
2013- World Series runner up
2014- NLDS
2015- NLCS
2016- No playoffs
2017- TBD but fairly good chance of no playoffsSo it looks like we have gotten worse over the last five years. Who is to blame for that? Some could argue the front office has become complacent, risk averse, and asleep at the wheel. Some could argue that the clubhouse culture that LaRussa created has eroded over time due to Matheny being a “player’s manager”.
It is probably a combination of the two. Personally I think the front office is more to blame. For years we were the big bullies of this division and could outspend or out maneuver our opponents due to our advantage in resources. The Reds, Brewers, and Pirates would rise up on occasion but didn’t and don’t have staying power due to their relative lack of resources and our front office knew that. Things completely changed the day the Cubs hired Theo Epstein. Now they have the brainpower in the front office to go along with the financial muscle they have always had. They are now the big bullies of the NL Central. I saw this coming the day Epstein was hired and hoped our organization would adapt and prepare for the onslaught but we didn’t and got passed up. We now have to fight our way back to the top.
As for Matheny, I still don’t view him as an elite manager but he is serviceable if given a good roster. I just hope that the next time we have a vacancy we hire a proven winner.
I think there will be moves in the offseason regardless of our finish. We have around 10 outfielders who could be competing for playing time next year. Someone has to go.
Our infield still has question marks. Does Carp really have a position? Is Wong still the long term answer? Is Dejong our answer at SS or is he Diaz 2.0? Is Gyroko really an everyday player or is he better suited as a super utility guy?
Girsch admitted that we have several pieces of the puzzle that don’t fit so I expect some changes. BTW, I have noticed that Girsch appears to be more candid in his comments than MO. I appreciate that candor. It is refreshing.
I like Hosmer but I suspect he will be bid out of our price range. The Yankees and Red Sox may be in the market for a 1B and there is no telling how high the bidding could go. Trading for Belt or Myers would be a little cheaper.
Look at what they inherited. Larussa, Torre, and Whitey inherited garbage when they took over the Cardinals. Matheny inherited a World Series champion and we have continued to regress since then.
If you are truly trying to claim that MM is on par with those hall of fame managers then that is quite a statement. I suspect you will be in the minority.
I heard someone on the radio today propose a trade of sending Grichuk to the Mets for Jay Bruce since Bruce has apparently cleared waivers.
I wouldn’t mind plugging Bruce into the cleanup spot for the next seven weeks to see what he could do but surely the cost would be cheaper than Grichuk, who still has three years of team control remaining.
Who has the best winning percentage as a major league manager?
Whitey Herzog
Tony LaRussa
Joe Torre
Mike MathenyFor the same 4, who has the best winning percentage as a Cardinal manager?
Matheny’s winning % is still good because of the great start he got off too since he inherited a World Series champion team. But our year end finishes have gotten worse since 2013 so I suspect his winning % won’t measure up much longer.
If you really want to compare the four managers let’s list the number of pennants and world series championships each has won.
At some point we need to stop living off of the past. There is only so much mileage we can get out of 2006, 2011, and the other good seasons. The reality, as Brian pointed out, is that our year end finishes have declined every year since 2013.
My recollection is that we interviewed Matheny, Oquendo, Francona, and Ryne Sandberg. I remember thinking at the time that the obvious choice should be Francona because he and Sandberg were the only two with major league managing experience with Francona having the most success. In my opinion, an organization like St. Louis should never hire someone without managing experience. That may be the en vougue thing to do now with guys like Roberts, Cash, Luvullo, Green, and Ausmus being hired without managing experience, but I prefer the more proven route. LaRussa was a very powerful and independent minded person and perhaps the front office preferred someone who they could have more control over and someone who was going to go along more with the promote from within approach.
Since 1980 we have had four full time managers: Whitey Herzog, Joe Torre, Tony LaRussa, and Mike Matheny. Two of them are in the MLB Hall of Fame and Whitey is in the Cards Hall of Fame. Matheny will never measure up to those guys. I’m not advocating his firing right now but I do hope the next time we have a vacancy we hire a proven winner.
I can’t say that I’m completely done with the ’17 club since we are only 3.5 games out, but this team has really given us no indication it is capable of playing better than .500. Jack Buck used to always say you need to get to .500 before you think about anything else, although that was before the multiple wild card system.
Unless we make a surprise waiver trade in August I’m more focused on 2018. We need a big bat or two, tighten up the bullpen, and re-sign Lynn.
What some people refer to as underperforming I consider to actually be mis-evaluation. Just because our FO expected Grichuk, Piscotty, Fowler, Oh, and Rosie to perform like all stars doesn’t make it so. The FO mis-evaluated our talent and assigned it a projection that was not realistic.
I agree that Carp is a defensive liability but the extra offensive output might be worth it.
My offseason goals:
1. New 1B: Trade for Belt or sign Hosmer
2. New 3B: Trade for Donaldson or Longoria
3. Re-sign Lance Lynn. I have flip flopped on this issue but I now lean to bringing him back.
4. Bolster bullpen by adding Alex ReyesTo do the trades I mentioned we should be willing to trade some or all of the following:
Piscotty, Gyroko, Wong, Voit, Weaver, Flaherty, etc….2B Carp
CF Pham
LF Fowler
3B Donaldson
1B Belt
C Molina
SS Dejong
RF Grichuk
PBench of Kelly, Diaz, Sierra, and O’Neil
Rotation of : CMart, Lynn, Leake, Waino, and Wacha
Whoever we don’t trade will be waiting in Memphis: Alacantara, Hudson, etc…Bullpen of : Rosenthal, Reyes, Lyons, Siegrist, Cecil, Bowman, Tui
It lacks a feared hitter because no one has elevated their performance to be that feared hitter.
Grichuk and/or Piscotty were groomed to be that feared hitter. They haven’t performed up to it.We will just have to agree to disagree. Depending on Grichuk or Piscotty to be the feared hitter was extreme wishful thinking. Most reasonable people could have concluded before the season began that these guys are complimentary pieces.
One thing we might consider this winter is to do an exchange of bad contracts such as sending Fowler to the Giants for Brandon Belt. The money is similar. We might have to throw in another player since Belt is younger but I would consider it. Belt will be cheaper than Hosmer and it would allow us to move Carp back to 2B, 3B, or be traded.
There are still several things about this board that make it more difficult to navigate than the old board:
1. Can’t mark posts as read.
2. Difficult to determine which threads I have posted in. Yes I know I can click on my screen name but that is tedious.
3. When clicking on a thread it reverts to the top and we have to scroll all the way to the bottom to find most recent posts. The threads are very long.
4. I haven’t mastered how to quote a poster in my new post.
I don’t mean to be a complainer. Just making observations.
Bccran, I totally disagree with your premise that the roster is fine and the only problem is under performance.
Why do we have so many outfielders?
Why do we have so many 2B?
Why do we not have a cleanup hitter?This is roster is cluttered and lacks a feared hitter. That was stated on this board in January and is still true today. The FO failed.
Not sure who you are referring to NJ315 but I don’t recall defending Matheny’s W-L record. I have consistently said that he has proven he could win when he was given a quality roster, however, this year he was not given a quality roster.
Yes the bullpen has at times this year been a dumpster fire but the real culprit for this team all season has been the lack of offense and it isn’t just underperforming. It was easy to see before the season started that we didn’t have enough offense.
Many on this board were screaming all Winter that we needed more lumber in the lineup but the FO saw otherwise and we have been paying the price all year.
As I have said before Matheny is not an elite level manager but he has proven he can win when given a winning type roster. The front office DID NOT give him a winning roster this year. They just didn’t.
Having said that, if Matheny has lost the clubhouse then a change might have to be considered. Giving him an extension last year was weird at the time and is still weird.
We don’t have a cleanup hitter on the roster, which is not Matheny’s fault by the way. It doesn’t really matter who he puts in that slot. They are all equally bad.
Yes we have some power, but as we saw in 2016, that doesn’t necessarily lead to a productive offense. Going station to station isn’t efficient. I think monitoring our RBI numbers would be more revealing. It seems to me that we have too many players on track for 25HR and 60RBI, which isn’t very effective. We must lead the league in solo homers.
That is true but the fact that he had the courage to do it publicly tells you he has no respect or fear of MM. Tells you who is running the clubhouse.