September 17, 2019 at 8:50 am #106494
My system isn’t really that scientific. I assign each minor leaguer that I think has a chance to be in the top 50 with a subjective score of between 1-100. The score is based on many of the same things as C. Jeske has (ability, age, how close to majors) but I just do it all at once. I then throw them in a spreadsheet and sort them from highest score to lowest. I then go through and make a few adjustments based on personal bias and go with it. So far my rankings seem to be similar as to the others although I suspect there we will be some differences as we get in the 20’s and 30’s.September 17, 2019 at 9:46 am #106507Cardinals27ParticipantPaid - Annual
I am curious about Williams, but would like to see a full season of his last 30+ games.September 18, 2019 at 6:45 am #106632
Round 4 was close for the top four spots. Final tally shows:
Round 5 kicks off now with #15-#16-#17-#18.
Thanks again for your participation.September 18, 2019 at 7:02 am #106635
2020 Current results
#1. DYLAN CARLSON
#2. NOLAN GORMAN
#3. ANDREW KNIZNER
#4. RANDY AROZARENA
#5. ELEHURIS MONTERO
#6. IVAN HERRERA
#7. ZACK THOMPSON
#8. JAKE WOODFORD
#9. ANGEL RONDON
#10. MALCOLM NUNEZ
#11. JHON TORRES
#12. JUNIOR FERNANDEZ
#13. GENESIS CABRERA
#14. JUSTIN WILLIAMS
September 18, 2019 at 7:35 am #106638Cardinals27ParticipantPaid - Annual
- This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by 14NyquisT.
18) Ju RodriguezSeptember 18, 2019 at 7:42 am #106639flood21ParticipantPaid - Three Months
16. Fletcher (I did have Edmundo Sosa at this spot and am surprised that he is not eligible for the prospect list. He only has 7 career major league at bats. ??
18. Alvaro Seijas
September 18, 2019 at 7:46 am #106640stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
- This reply was modified 2 months, 4 weeks ago by flood21.
15-Johan Oviedo. He’s a big guy and while he’s struggled a little while he acclimates at most stops, he plays better as he goes. He’s got a mid rotation ceiling but probably is a back end starter or relief arm if his control doesn’t come along.
16-Adolis Garcia. I’m not sold on this guy at all but he’s got some of the tools. Someone maybe can make a useful outfielder out of him and I hope he gets the chance on another team next year.
17-Trejyn Fletcher. Call him an Adolis Garcia starter kit. This kid would have been a very high draft pick in 2020 but the Cards probably got a steal in the second round this year. He has some fine skills but will have to get the plate approach under control as he struck out a ton this year.
18-Luken Baker. I’m a believer that the big fella figured out how to tap into that power at the end of the Palm Beach season (.343/.405/.686 the last month or so). It will be interesting to see him hit at Springfield, especially if they go to the juiced ball. He’s got 30-40 HR power, but may have no position long term unless the DH comes to the NL.
A question…why are Thomas, Sosa, etc not eligible here? It seems like it will skew the overall rankings since Brian and Derek have them ranked? Or are they going to exclude these guys too?September 18, 2019 at 8:21 am #106647CardsFanInChiTownParticipantFree
15) Johan Oviedo – Very young for AA and he destroyed PB. As with a lot of guys, if he can get the walks under control, he could take a huge step forward. His K rate over the year was 10 per 9 IP which is encouraging that he could, at a minimum, end up a solid BP piece. At 6’6″ and 210, he should have the durability to be a work horse, IF he can get the walks down.
16) Trejyn Fletcher – The K’s were an issue this year which I believe was expected with his limited experience due to geography compared to someone from FL, TX, Cali, etc. He’s about as boom or bust as anyone, more so than Nick Plummer a few years ago, hopefully this one works out better for the Cards. Hopefully he can learn to see breaking balls in the near future and take a big step next year.
17) Kodi Whitley – Great BP arm and could be a huge add to the pen in 2020, likely one of the famous non-trade additions that Mo “adds” around the trade deadline. The K % was in double digits and the BB % got better as he progressed this year. There isn’t much not to like here and he should possibly be much higher.
18) Andre Pallante – Out of the abundance of college pitchers the Cards took in the first 10 rounds, it was a toss up between Pallante and Tony Locey for me at this spot. They both have the build and from what I’ve read the repertoire to remain starters. So, the reasoning behind Pallante over Locey came down to the BB% in college. In 2018 and 19, Pallante’s BB% was 2.7 and 2.9 per nine. Locey’s for those two years were 4.9 and 4.6.September 18, 2019 at 8:46 am #106650Christopher JeskeParticipantPaid - Annual
15. Justin Toerner
16. John Nogowski – He made it to AAA this year in his age 26 season and didn’t disappoint—mainly with elite plate discipline and bat control. This year, Nogowski had both the highest walk rate (14.9%) and lowest strikeout rate (11.7%) among qualified (non-DSL) minor leaguers in the Cardinals’ system. His path to MLB playing time is unclear, but he possesses a unique and potentially valuable skill set.
17. Luken Baker – I find Toerner an interesting player to compare with Baker. They were both drafted in 2018, but Baker on day one and Toerner toward the end of day three. While they are of similar age, their physiques/builds are quite different. They also had almost mirror opposite seasons: Toerner followed one outstanding month (96 PA: 1.081 OPS) with four essentially average months, Baker started with four essentially average months before taking off in August (92 PA: 1.067 OPS).
Furthermore, despite similar plate discipline, they contributed value in otherwise different ways. Baker (496 PA: 10.5 BB%, 22.6 K%, .244 AVG, .146 ISO, .716 OPS, 115 wRC+, 118 DRC+). Toerner’s combined 2018-2019 at A+ (282 PA: 13.5 BB%, 20.9 K%, .292 AVG, .102 ISO, .796 OPS, 141 wRC+, 155 DRC+). Toerner holds the clear edge overall and they were both roughly the same age while posting these lines.
18. Ramon Urias – His age is starting to push him into Voit/Ravelo/Nogowski territory, but he might be primed for a Randy Arozarena-esque jump in consistency next year. For Urias, it was a tale of two halves: April-May (183 PA: .221 AVG, .091 ISO, .653 OPS) vs. June-September (221 PA: .295 AVG, .208 ISO, .882 OPS). He also had good plate discipline, which was consistent across the entire season (11.7% walk rate, 18.9% strikeout rate).September 18, 2019 at 9:27 am #106665CariocaCardinalParticipantPaid - Monthly
And why is Sosa suddenly not eligible?September 18, 2019 at 9:30 am #106668
15. Johan Oviedo: He had an excellent half season at Palm Beach this year although he scuffled a little bit at Springfield. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a strong 2020 in Springfield and Memphis and be on the verge of St. Louis by the end of 2020 or early 2021. With a sturdy 6’6″ frame he could be a solid number 3 or 4 starter in the big leagues.
16. Adolis Garcia: He has the most raw power in the entire Cardinal minor league system and has the strongest OF arm in the system. He just oozes talent. He would already be in the big leagues if he could control the strikeouts. At his age he needs to figure that out soon. Some have compared him to Jorge Soler. I think that is accurate as is the comp to Yasiel Puig. If he can get the K rate down to 30% or under he will be in the big leagues. If not, he will continue to be a AAAA player.
17. Kodi Whitley: To go from Peoria to Memphis within 12 months is very impressive. Whitley really burst onto the scene in a big way in 2019, which is a good thing considering he is 24. He might press for time in St. Louis in 2020.
18. Trejyn Fletcher: A very toolsy player that the Cards were able to sign over Vanderbilt which is impressive in its own right. At the age of 18 it will be interesting to see how aggressive the Cards will push him. Will he be in Peoria in 2020?September 18, 2019 at 9:50 am #106672CariocaCardinalParticipantPaid - Monthly
Sosa (if eligible)
RalstonSeptember 18, 2019 at 10:02 am #106674
We’re adding Sosa to eligibility. Sorry for the confusion.September 18, 2019 at 10:15 am #106675
18. BakerSeptember 18, 2019 at 11:04 am #106679stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
I would like to put Sosa in before Garcia then.
(Baker will be #19)September 18, 2019 at 12:04 pm #106684SoonerinNCParticipantPaid - Annual
19. SeijasSeptember 18, 2019 at 12:08 pm #106685mudvilleParticipantPaid - Annual
18. WhitleySeptember 18, 2019 at 12:14 pm #106686PugsleyAddamsParticipantPaid - Annual
15. Alexander “The Great”
Gracias senor NyquistSeptember 18, 2019 at 1:25 pm #106701
OK, strike Fletcher at 18 and insert Sosa.
18. SosaSeptember 18, 2019 at 7:02 pm #106779grenadier1ParticipantPaid - Three Months
15. Edmundo Sosa – Worst case should already be taking Yairo Munoz place in the bench/utility role. Best case he maintains his roughly average wRC+ at the MLB level with well above average defense at 2B/SS/3B. Unlike Yairo Munoz he’s a legit SS with ability to play the entire infield with above average defense.
16. Johan Oviedo – Big framed righty whose FB velocity has started to tick back up after abandoning him at the lower levels. It sounds like his CU and CB started to come around this year leading to improved numbers in A+ and AA. Still young for level while pitching 3+ years below the league average in AA. Didn’t dominate in his few starts at AA, but his FIP and xFIP were better than his ERA which is encouraging. If he continues to improve his control, particularly with the FB could be Top-10 by mid-season. It will be interesting to see how the juiced ball effects him next year.
17. Julio Rodriguez – I admit that I don’t know much about how to rank catcher defense, but by all accounts he is one of, if not the, best defensive catcher in the system. Played most of the year in A+ putting up a 115 wRC+ in a pitcher’s league providing good defense and game calling while leading a really good pitching staff and being a FSL All-Star. League average to slightly below for age. I’m not sure I actually think this highly of him, but on this one I’m trusting the formula to identify value. I guess we’ll see, because in my opinion the most likely outcome for him is a AAAA or backup catcher which isn’t really a Top 20 prospect, even in a somewhat diluted system.
18. Trejyn Fletcher – Very much a projection over performance right now. Cardinals obviously think highly of him as they promoted him to JC very early (as in 42 ABs and 149 wRC+ in GCL). Struggled mightly with some obscene k% numbers (44% and 40%). Still, a great value pick as he was a top prospect in the 2020 class prior to reclassifying to be eligible this year. Everyone compares him to Plummer, but he strikes me as much more of a quick twitch athlete that I think will be able to adjust as long as the work ethic is there (there is no reason to believe that it isn’t.) Very young guy with a lot of potential outcomes, but a very high ceiling that the Cards need to roll the dice on to get star power into the system.
This is the point in the rankings that it will get interesting. A lot of guys in this area with tools to get excited about but holes in their game that give pause for concern. This is the fun part.September 18, 2019 at 7:44 pm #106785vegasjimParticipantPaid - Annual
18. SeijasSeptember 18, 2019 at 11:01 pm #106819Nigel TParticipantPaid - Three Months
18 NogowskiSeptember 19, 2019 at 2:33 am #106830WileyParticipantFree
15. Trejyn Fletcher
16. Edmundo Sosa
17. Austin Gomber
18. Andre PallanteSeptember 19, 2019 at 7:00 am #106833
Wiley…. Gomber no longer eligible.September 19, 2019 at 7:05 am #106834
StL25-CFIC-Jeske-Gscott-Gren1 all made some good comments along with their suggestions. Comments and accolades are welcome here.
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