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If there is a Rule 5 draft I would think Cho and Jesus Baez might be protected. Lin might have a chance, but continues to be inconsistent. Henderson would have been in the conversation, but his injury makes his future murky. Gastelum, Jordan, and Mathews have been added. Free agents Stanek and Urias are likely are free agents we will likely let go.
The team has added most players that needed to be added already. Assuming there is a Rule 5 draft, here’s where I have everyone in descending order of likelihood they are taken:
Needs to be added (will be taken otherwise): Jesus Baez
Should consider being added (10-60% chance of being taken): Jacob Odle, Cade Winquest, Won bin Cho, Chase Davis, Chen Wei Lin, Ixan Henderson, Hancel Rincon, Colton Ledbetter
Almost Certainly Safe (<10% chance of being taken): Pete Hansen, Randal Clemente, Tre Richardson, Ramon Mendoza, Austin Love
Other Prospects of Note that become/are Eligible: Noah Mendlinger, Travis Honeyman, Zach Levenson, Jose Suarez, Skyler Hales, Darlin Saladin, Ancelo Encarnacion
I would bet that the Rule 5 draft gets cancelled. I still think we may see Winquest and/or Rincon get added before season’s end to help the bullpen.
I should have added Sammy Hernandez, Yordalin Pena, and Jose Davila into that last group as well. None of those will be taken but they are interesting prospects at least and eligible to be taken.
Good list, jnevel. I haven’t studied this in detail yet, but at first glance, a guy who might be ranked too low in this scenario is Clemente. He leads the entire system in both strikeout and walk rate. Think about that!
There is progress, though. As the season has gone on, he is improving on the walks. This month, 3 BB and 14 K in six innings with Springfield. Yep, 14 of his 18 outs were via the K. (And he only gave up five hits for a .227 BAA.)
Someone might gamble in hopes they can fix the walks because the strikeouts are so good.
Clemente has shown improvement, but might make the perfect Rule 5 pickup. And I have always liked Rincon, and he has really done well after a rough start. I think it’s unfortunate he wasn’t allowed to continue starting. Because of that, I am not sure the FO values him that much and he may go unprotected. I believe Rincon can be a minor league free agent after this year. For that reason I would give him a try in the Lou. Assuming Stanek isn’t brought back next year, I think they should cut him now.
Brian, I thought hard about Clemente. I maybe should have put him in the next group up. Good points.
I believe Mendoza, Clemente, Saladin, Davila, and Rincon are all set to be Minor League free agents if they aren’t added to the 40-man roster. That may be enough reason to add Rincon and Clemente.
I like jnevel’s list, with the addition of Clemente. I’d drop Henderson given the injuries this year. That gets us to 9 folks you’d like to add: Baez, Odle, Winquest, Cho, Davis, Lin, Rincon, Ledbetter, Clemente.
Including Rajcic, they have 40 on the 40 man, so you’d need to drop 9 guys. Probably 10 because I’d think they will add someone to a May-type contract again.
I get 7 fairly easy drops–Ferguson, Fernandez, Rajcic, Strzelski, Svanson, Prieto, Urias. But then it gets hard for me.
I think my last three adds would be Odle (far away from big leagues), Lin (less confidence he will make it) and Rincon. My next three drops/trades would be Scott, Gorman, and Pages. I think I keep the latter. Scott has shown signs on offense of late, an OPS of .851 for August. He’s still just 25. Pages is the safety blanket for the pitchers in case neither Crooks nor Bernal can handle MLB. Gorman has an OPS of .928 in August, and perhaps they can still fix him.When contemplating drops from the 40 man remember that you have to field a 26 man team, including a pen and a functional bench. Then you have to have ML capable depth at AAA, which does not have to be on the 40 man, but you have to have it still after your drops.
Gagliano – I was really listing the possibles to be taken. If it were me choosing today, I’d only protect Baez, Odle, and Winquest. Maybe one or both of Rincon and Clemente to keep them leaving in free agency. I’d take the risk on leaving Cho, Davis, Lin, and Ledbetter unprotected. Those 4 are low risk, although Ledbetter has really come on lately so it’s a good thing we don’t have to decide yet.
I’m fairly certain the Cardinals would prefer not to have a Rule 5 Draft and only have to choose what they want to do with Clemente & Rincon.
It would be best for the Cards to have the Rule 5 cancelled. We let Stanek and Urias go, and add Rincon and Mendoza. Rincon has pitched really well this year, especially lately. Mendoza has improved, and is versatile defensively, and could replace Urias, and/or Fermin. Both Mendoza and Rincon are pending minor league free agents.
Mendoza is an enigma. He has been with the organization since dinosaurs roamed the earth but one never hears or sees or reads anything about him. I have no idea if he is any good. I imagine the organization and everyone else sees him as having a ceiling of AAAA guy. Have we been waiting for another gear which he doesn’t seem to have? It seems like they’d give him a cuppa anyway.
The deck is stacked against an infielder who has no 40-man spot and is at least fourth in line at Memphis behind Saggese, Prieto and Gorman, all of whom are on the roster.
Urias might leave, but they still have Torres and Fermin as MLB reserves, neither of whom have reached arbitration, so remain cheap. (Then there’s Jordan who is technically a starter now, but might become a reserve if Urias is re-signed.)
As at least no. 6 in the infield reserve pecking order, Mendoza isn’t likely going to stay.
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