- This topic has 126 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 2 days, 19 hours ago by
.
-
Posts
-
If there is a Rule 5 draft I would think Cho and Jesus Baez might be protected. Lin might have a chance, but continues to be inconsistent. Henderson would have been in the conversation, but his injury makes his future murky. Gastelum, Jordan, and Mathews have been added. Free agents Stanek and Urias are likely are free agents we will likely let go.
The team has added most players that needed to be added already. Assuming there is a Rule 5 draft, here’s where I have everyone in descending order of likelihood they are taken:
Needs to be added (will be taken otherwise): Jesus Baez
Should consider being added (10-60% chance of being taken): Jacob Odle, Cade Winquest, Won bin Cho, Chase Davis, Chen Wei Lin, Ixan Henderson, Hancel Rincon, Colton Ledbetter
Almost Certainly Safe (<10% chance of being taken): Pete Hansen, Randal Clemente, Tre Richardson, Ramon Mendoza, Austin Love
Other Prospects of Note that become/are Eligible: Noah Mendlinger, Travis Honeyman, Zach Levenson, Jose Suarez, Skyler Hales, Darlin Saladin, Ancelo Encarnacion
I would bet that the Rule 5 draft gets cancelled. I still think we may see Winquest and/or Rincon get added before season’s end to help the bullpen.
I should have added Sammy Hernandez, Yordalin Pena, and Jose Davila into that last group as well. None of those will be taken but they are interesting prospects at least and eligible to be taken.
Good list, jnevel. I haven’t studied this in detail yet, but at first glance, a guy who might be ranked too low in this scenario is Clemente. He leads the entire system in both strikeout and walk rate. Think about that!
There is progress, though. As the season has gone on, he is improving on the walks. This month, 3 BB and 14 K in six innings with Springfield. Yep, 14 of his 18 outs were via the K. (And he only gave up five hits for a .227 BAA.)
Someone might gamble in hopes they can fix the walks because the strikeouts are so good.
Clemente has shown improvement, but might make the perfect Rule 5 pickup. And I have always liked Rincon, and he has really done well after a rough start. I think it’s unfortunate he wasn’t allowed to continue starting. Because of that, I am not sure the FO values him that much and he may go unprotected. I believe Rincon can be a minor league free agent after this year. For that reason I would give him a try in the Lou. Assuming Stanek isn’t brought back next year, I think they should cut him now.
Brian, I thought hard about Clemente. I maybe should have put him in the next group up. Good points.
I believe Mendoza, Clemente, Saladin, Davila, and Rincon are all set to be Minor League free agents if they aren’t added to the 40-man roster. That may be enough reason to add Rincon and Clemente.
I like jnevel’s list, with the addition of Clemente. I’d drop Henderson given the injuries this year. That gets us to 9 folks you’d like to add: Baez, Odle, Winquest, Cho, Davis, Lin, Rincon, Ledbetter, Clemente.
Including Rajcic, they have 40 on the 40 man, so you’d need to drop 9 guys. Probably 10 because I’d think they will add someone to a May-type contract again.
I get 7 fairly easy drops–Ferguson, Fernandez, Rajcic, Strzelski, Svanson, Prieto, Urias. But then it gets hard for me.
I think my last three adds would be Odle (far away from big leagues), Lin (less confidence he will make it) and Rincon. My next three drops/trades would be Scott, Gorman, and Pages. I think I keep the latter. Scott has shown signs on offense of late, an OPS of .851 for August. He’s still just 25. Pages is the safety blanket for the pitchers in case neither Crooks nor Bernal can handle MLB. Gorman has an OPS of .928 in August, and perhaps they can still fix him.When contemplating drops from the 40 man remember that you have to field a 26 man team, including a pen and a functional bench. Then you have to have ML capable depth at AAA, which does not have to be on the 40 man, but you have to have it still after your drops.
Gagliano – I was really listing the possibles to be taken. If it were me choosing today, I’d only protect Baez, Odle, and Winquest. Maybe one or both of Rincon and Clemente to keep them leaving in free agency. I’d take the risk on leaving Cho, Davis, Lin, and Ledbetter unprotected. Those 4 are low risk, although Ledbetter has really come on lately so it’s a good thing we don’t have to decide yet.
I’m fairly certain the Cardinals would prefer not to have a Rule 5 Draft and only have to choose what they want to do with Clemente & Rincon.
It would be best for the Cards to have the Rule 5 cancelled. We let Stanek and Urias go, and add Rincon and Mendoza. Rincon has pitched really well this year, especially lately. Mendoza has improved, and is versatile defensively, and could replace Urias, and/or Fermin. Both Mendoza and Rincon are pending minor league free agents.
Mendoza is an enigma. He has been with the organization since dinosaurs roamed the earth but one never hears or sees or reads anything about him. I have no idea if he is any good. I imagine the organization and everyone else sees him as having a ceiling of AAAA guy. Have we been waiting for another gear which he doesn’t seem to have? It seems like they’d give him a cuppa anyway.
The deck is stacked against an infielder who has no 40-man spot and is at least fourth in line at Memphis behind Saggese, Prieto and Gorman, all of whom are on the roster.
Urias might leave, but they still have Torres and Fermin as MLB reserves, neither of whom have reached arbitration, so remain cheap. (Then there’s Jordan who is technically a starter now, but might become a reserve if Urias is re-signed.)
As at least no. 6 in the infield reserve pecking order, Mendoza isn’t likely going to stay.
Thanks, all. I posted then promptly got COVID. Doing much better. I assume the Cards’ loss streak was due to their worries about my health and my improvement today brought them back.
Ideally the Rule 5 is cancelled before the Cards have to make the roster decisions. That would make this all much easier! But I believe they will have to set their rosters before Dec. 1, and the Rule 5 won’t be cancelled before then. Do you risk players by not rostering them, counting on a cancellation?
jnevel-
Interesting point re risk vs. protection. Thanks. As usual, you make good points.
Baez, Winquest (who has been added!) and Odle make sense. I think Ledbetter’s surge warrants addition. After that early August surge, Chase Davis is 1 of 22, so that drops both my interest and worry. Given the needs for bullpen arms, and the risk of being taken, I think I’d protect Rincon, Clemente. That would reduce the list to 6 and moot the rest of my discussion.
But following up on that discussion, glad to see Gorman back up in that I assume this is a last chance for him. Odds seem higher they will cut bait if it doesn’t work out.
I know the bullpen gets grief, and much is deserved. But Soriano is 7th in the NL in appearances, Bruihl 11th, Stanek 13th, and O’Brien 21st, per Fangraphs. How much of the meltdowns have been about overusage? Stanek looked pretty good to me for most of the season. I’d lean toward a bullpen with Libby and Bruihl left, O’Brien, Stanek, Winquest, Gastelum, righties, Graceffo as an inning eater, and more free agent to round things out. Hope that Libby/Winquest/Gastelum/new arm can do better than Romero/Svanson/Fernandez/scrum of this year. with Rincon, Clemente, Mautz, and Santana contenders to knock at the door. Really interested to see what Winquest does these next weeks.
It was nice to see Winquest added. I think the team waits until the offseason to add any more of these bubble guys other than potentially Rincon. They will want to see if a Rule 5 draft is going to happen. If not, they all stay off the roster so they can play next season if there’s a lockout. With Rincon, if they plan to add him, I would suspect that is done in September or he will not be added at all. I hope he is added. I’ve been a fan of Rincon for 5 or6 years now – back when he was a fringe or non prospect. He’s always been fun to watch and I noticed he kept making incremental improvements nearly every month along his prospect path.
The FO clearly does not favor Rincon. It’s funny how an organization likes some players, yet does not give others a chance. I thought Rincon might get a chance to a starter at AA or AAA, even with multiple injuries that didn’t happen. Then he had a rough April and May. But after those months his era is around 2.25. Yet they add Winquest, whose only very month was August. I’m guessing that Rincon will walk as a minor league free agent after this year. All of this Despite us having a having a bad bullpen.
Rincon and Clemente are the only 2 guys I would consider adding and that is due to them having minors free agency options. That is unless you feel quite confident they would stay with STL. Clemente I will be curious to see how he does the rest of the season command wise. If his August command improvement is real, he is a must keep with his killer stuff.
I’m assuming the R5 doesn’t happen and I don’t want to add guys like Baez as that means he can’t play it there is a lockout.
Will the FO will have to prep for a Rule 5 draft even though it may not happen? That seems a waste of time. Unless they announce an early cancellation which seems unlikely. It would seem after the World Series at the earliest.
With all of recent additions of Rincon we’re getting closer to what the 2027 roster will look like. Rincon may not survive if he doesn’t do well though.
From the Fangraphs chat with Eric.
Lil Nubber
12:53
Will there be a Rule 5 draft this offseason? Will any teams get aggressive with their 40 man decisions betting that there won’t be?Eric A Longenhagen
12:55
I don’t think there will be. It has been a topic of conversation at the field the last couple of weeks, scouts with teams who I think have a crunch telling me their team bet on the Rule 5 getting banged.CC, I believe Clemente doesn’t reach minor league free agency until after 2027. Since there may not be a Rule 5 draft this year, adding him may be a moot point.
I cannot remember how many players Memphis can carry to avoid losing prospects in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. This could be a future issue for the CArds. I’m surprised the Dodgers dont have this problem. But I believe they will have major league protection issues if there is a rule 5 draft.
“27” – It’s 38 players. But it only applies to guys who are eligible to be taken which is either 3 or 4 years in depending on their age when drafted. I wouldn’t worry about it. I don’t think it’s a pressing issue, but I haven’t done all the background work to make sure yet. Besides, odds are there won’t be a Rule 5 draft at all.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.