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#13 Tegan Kuhns…great fastball and curve. Along with control, with another 2 pitches in the works to be at least passable at the MLB level. So much to like there. A great get at #32 in the draft. Really glad he fell to us.
#14 Alexander Frias ….41 XBH, 38 SB. Played 86 games last year, after 27 games in the DSL in 2025. Tailed off in the 2nd half, expected with 3X the games played this year. Pundits love him, I expect him to be ranked Top 10 in nearly every single Media Prospect List for the Cards, and he might sneak into a few Top 100 or 150 lists.
Alexander Frias is a fine choice; when the Birds traded for the 18-year-old outfielder at the end of July he was ranked top 70 by Keith Law and top 50 at Fangraphs. He’ll probably be on all top 100 lists this offseason
But the thing of it is, Frias played at Palm Beach with fellow 18-year-olds Sebastian Dos Santos and Miguel Hernandez. And simply put, he was not at their level offensively.
Here’s the Palm Beach line for each, extrapolated to 150 games.
Frias .247 with 12 homers, 24 doubles, 65 walks, and 36 steals in 42 tries.
SDS .246 with 27 longballs, 22 doubles, 119 walks, and 49 of 60 stealing bases.
Miggy .304 with 12 homers, 42 doubles, 120 walks, and 42 steals in 60 attempts.They each projected to fan between 150 and 163 times, which is admittedly a concern. But as you can see, both Miggy and SDS offset the whiffs with tons of walks, which Frias does not. Now, Frias will probably add power, given his age and frame — but he’ll have to add a chunk just to get to where Sebastian and Miguel are right now. (Their isolated slugging numbers were nearly 50% higher than Frias.) And of course, Dos Santos and Hernandez have each played primarily shortstop in their brief careers, so it’s not unfair to assume they’ll have at least as much defensive value as Alex Frias, if not more.
Frias is very young and very promising, a top 100 talent, maybe top 50. But the other guys are better.
#13 Sebastian Dos Santos
#14 Miguel HernandezWhen i saw Frias ranked the 5th best prospect in the Cardinals system on the cardinals.mlb site I decided to discount what pundits thought about it. To me his results don’t jump off the page. Teens can have some amazing metrics and i don’t doubt he is right there, but the stuff that doesn’t support the narrative gets swept under the rug sometimes. For example, they point to his high exit velo but don’t factor in it comes with a high ground ball rate which results from his negative average launch angle. ‘But he can fix that!’ Yes, but a lot of guys would be good if they fix something. Easier said than done. Thats just my take, of course. If he sports a better batting line next year i will like him better. So i have him in my 20-25 group which consider very fair.
#13 – Alexander Frias
#14 – Sebastian Dos SantosI ranked these two young prospects here because of potential, and what we have already seen. But I also ranked Tink Hence at #12 last year, so….
13. Miguel Hernandez
14. Sebastian dos SantosI had Tai Peete ranked between theses two on my list. Now that he’s in, SDS is next. Enough has been said about both. There’s risk here for sure because of age, but as far as on-field results go, these two deserve to be at least this high – especially considering age to level. I would not be surprised if they are both top 5 next year.
I completely support Kuhns and Molina around this level too as I have them up next. I then have a few others before we get to Santana, Frias, and Ragsdale. Santana solely because of size and the fact he’s a reliever. Otherwise, he’d be top 10.
It borders the criminality that Sebastian Alessandro Dos Santos is still on the board. Maybe a recount is in order?
I like Roby a lot. And I’m proud he was able to check all those boxes at the AFL. A healthy Roby is a dangerous Roby, and a deep rotation.
Like last year when I thought Doyle should be our draft selection, I was picking Kuhns in the Comp balance A pick, and very glad he fell to us. In addition, there are a lot of this years draftees left to rank.it is an affirmation of the strength of our farm system that only one draft choice has been picked so far.
13 Kuhns
14 RobyI decided to go crazy and bump Roby up displacing Molina in my list. Not because I think Roby will magically become resilient and have a substantial MLB career, but because he might have a healthy and substantial 2027 in MLB.
I have already talked about Kuhns, but in addition, I think he will be a fast mover. A reason I think so is he has such good control. Hardly walks anyone. One scouting report says he is over the plate too much.
I’m all about jumping on tbat Roby train, but first stop is getting the SS pair on track.
13:SDS
14:Miguel HernandezMy thinking about Clarke is, best case, he has to stay on the mound all 2027 working up through AA and AAA, just to position himself to take a run at MLB sometime in 2028. That is way more staying healthy than what Roby has to do to get to the promised land. I have previously mentioned that there is no structure in a pitching arm that sheds loose bodies when healthy and undamaged, which is concerning, but in Clake’s case, it seems intuitive that maybe it is debris from a previous procedure, and maybe that is less concerning. We don’t know, of course.
I have Bob’s teen heartthrobs coming up after Kuhns, Roby and Molina. That puts them in my top 20 which seems fair. Almost all teen shortstops don’t stay shortstops the whole way up. They slide somewhere else more crowded with bats while also facing better and better pitching and defense as the pyramid narrows. About a half season into AA you see who survived the gauntlet.
I’m sticking with SDS, but for #14 it’s between Frias and Roby for me. They’re such different prospects, in pretty much every way. I’m going to give the edge to the raw power of Frias, as much as Roby’s fall ball has made me want to push him even higher up the list.
#13 Sebastian Dos Santos
#14 Alexander FriasMy thinking about Clarke is, best case, he has to stay on the mound all 2027 working up through AA and AAA, just to position himself to take a run at MLB sometime in 2028. That is way more staying healthy than what Roby has to do to get to the promised land. I have previously mentioned that there is no structure in a pitching arm that sheds loose bodies when healthy and undamaged, which is concerning, but in Clake’s case, it seems intuitive that maybe it is debris from a previous procedure, and maybe that is less concerning. We don’t know, of course.
Clarke is one of the most talented arms in the system, but his health is a massive question mark, to say the least. Chucking it 103 in rehab starts just puts an exclamation point on it for me. I have him around 30th, which is around replacement level as a projection from me, 0ish WAR over the six controllable years.
#13 Tekoah Roby
#14 Alexander FriasI like Kuhns, Clarke, and Molina on the pitching side too.
Hitting-wise, Dos Santos, Hernandez, Luna, Ragsdale, and Cho are up there for me. Cho had a 20/30 season this year and is hardly being mentioned, while Radsdale also had a 20/30 year.
Tight race between Kuhns, Roby, dos Santos, Miguel Hernandez, and Frias. I’m a bit surprised Molina isn’t just as high up there with this group too. Also, no mention of Maniscalco yet. All of these guys might have been top 5 if they were around and we were doing this ranking 4 years ago.
A big problem I have trying to rank position players is i never know much about their defense. The lower they are, the less I know. I have also noticed over the years that the better a prospect hits, the less I can trust what I do hear about their defense because its always puffed. All the infielders can’t pile into second base. All the outfielders can’t pile into left field. All the guys who can’t quite play anywhere at the MLB level can’t pile into 1B/DH. So at some point as the pyramid narrows it won’t just be about their bat. The players who will be able to add value with the bat and glove are the values. I feel like I can’t really make any sort of informed guess about that until they are well into AA at least and I can get some realistic idea where they might land defensively. But despite all that, I’m going to throw a couple darts here pretty soon.
Bling – I’ll try to help with some generic ratings for prospects that might be in the next 20-30 spots):
Bad – Ortiz
Questionable – Cho, Gurevitch (for 3B), Mitchell (still very young), Ferraro, Ledbetter
Average-ish – M Hernandez, Frias, Ragsdale, Pena, dos Santos, S Hernandez
Good to Great – Maniscalco, Padilla, Davis, Campos
Not enough data for me to rate – Henne, Kennedy, Williamson
These are broad generalizations and it could depend on position, but hopefully this helps a little. Also, the younger they are, the more time they have to improve or potentially get worse due to size.
I think8 would like to know about a prospects work ethic. In the case of Frias, Dos Santos,Hernandez, etc. I think if they work hard they can improve so much.
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