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#5 (my number 4) Joshua Baez, OF 50+/55, Risk Med
Josh Baez burst onto the scene this year in St Louis in a historic way (and a happy one for me as my in laws are all Cubs fans) by pummeling Matt Boyd and the Cubs for 3 dingers in his first three at bats. He then cooled significantly, before settling into being a pretty good player. Josh wil give you a few things…excellent raw power, a lot of Ks, and solid corner OF defense with a good arm. Since the Cards lack that outside of Jordan Walker in the outfield right now, that should make us satisfied with his debut and the projection going forward. At his best, Baez is a HR derby sort of guy…hitting mammoth homers, the sort that pitchers have nightmares about. I think there’s a great chance that if he can keep the Ks under control to a degree (see below), that he will hit 35+ HRs in a year at some point soon. His defense isn’t Gold Glove, but it’s more than passable in LF or RF if needed.
What’s the potential fly in the ointment? His propensity to swing and miss. It was there at most every level except at Springfield, and it will likely be there in the bigs. It does limit the ceiling of a guy who very well could have a career year where he hits .275 with 35 HRs and drives in over 100. But expect something more like .240 with 25ish HRs and a strikeout rate in the Randal Grichuk range (when he was in St Louis, at least). But he does have a lot more risk than a guy typically would have who’s already made the big leagues and had success.
I’m going with the pitcher here who I think gives the Cardinals the 2nd most long-term value. I have him a notch behind Mathews and just a smidgeon ahead of Doyle as all my 2-6 picks came in close together. There is something absolutely comforting watching the smooth delivery of Tanner Franklin. He repeats everything well. The velocity jumps out of his hand without him looking like he’s having to throw hard. And the results have been there since his day 1 debut. He’s the pitcher I’m the most excited to see debut one day in a Cardinals uniform.
5. Tanner Franklin
It’s definitely between Baez and Franklin for me. I love franklin’s upside as a prospect, but with Baez already being at the major league level and putting up a decent showcase in those appearances, I’m going to give him the slight edge at #5.
#5 Joshua Baez
I’ll go with Sebastian Dos Santos at #5, please.
The 18-year-old switch-hitting shortstop has done nothing but hit. He batted .313/.452/.570 last year in the Dominican Summer League, then this season he posted an OPS of 1.015 in the Florida Complex League (3rd-highest OPS in the 6-year history of the FCL), before finishing up with a 129 OPS+ in full season A-ball for Palm Beach in the Florida State League.
But here’s my favorite part, where Dos Santos’ Palm Beach performance mirrors that of someone you know, a certain Rainiel Rodriguez.
In 2025, from mid-July to season’s end, Rai-Rod had a sweet 24/26 BB/K and an OPS 262 pts. above the FSL.
In 2026, from late July to season’s end, Dos Santos posted a 24/27 BB/K and an OPS 263 pts. above the FSL.The two players were the same age, within a matter of weeks. Now, I’m not implying that SDS will kill the baseball like Rainiel Rodriguez going forward. I’m just saying that Dos Santos has been more spectacular at the plate so far than he’s been given credit for.
Franklin for me at 5. I’ve been wondering when there would be a jump to high upside youngsters. I’m not there yet, BobReed, but thanks for getting the ball rolling!
This would be so much easier if we knew what was going to happen.
Josh Baez #5
I disagree with the ‘Risk Med’ assessment above. I give it a bit more than that, but it is countered by upside. As pitchers figure him out there is Gorman risk. But maybe he adapts where Gorman floundered. I don’t know how good of an outfielder he was in the minors. All anyone ever talks about is the offense, so I don’t know if being in LF now is a thing. I hope the Grichuk comp is wrong. I was constantly frustrated watching him strike out in a key spot instead of putting it in play somehow.
The alternative here is Franklin, unless you give weight to the top 5 on the Cardinals official site, which has Frias in that slot. As Yoshi said, Baez is here, and proximity matters. Franklin has yet to establish himself vs upper level hitters. There is also ever present health risk for any starter, but so far, so good with that.
So, all things considered, I go with Baez here. It could go horribly wrong or wonderfully right.
I think Walker was an OK minor league third baseman, was shifted to outfield in AA and then beamed up to MLB before he learned the new position.
Walker was a terrible 3B. But yes, he should not have been learning how to play the outfield on a major-league roster.
#5 I will go with Joshua Baez.
Most of it is based on his AAA performance. His debut at Wrigley Field was probably the highlight of our season but it was still just one game. He could be an all star or he could be a flame out or somewhere in between.
Debated between 5 prospects on this one. And came down to an 18yo first round pick and a reliever turned starter.
I’ll go with the better Volunteer alum…
Tanner Franklin #5. He made the transition from reliever easier than most would’ve thought.
reliever risks, like his college teammate, but seemed ready for the part at Peoria, and then continued improving as the summer went on. Ending at Springfield with a terrific, poised performance on his biggest stage to date, the Texas League playoffs.
Franklin put up 11.4 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 on the season, again, improving those rates from Peoria to Springfield.
I’m not worried about Joshua Baez’ defense. It was never questioned in the minors. He could fill in at center, if needed but not preferable. He has a cannon of an arm. Joshua Baez is my number 5. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts.
I’m not worried about Joshua Baez’ defense. It was never questioned in the minors.
I don’t remember anybody complaining too much about Walker’s defense at 3B in the minors, but some say it was bad. As I have mentioned before, if a prospect puts mistakes in the parking lot all eyes roll back and nobody worries about other aspects of the game. Not saying that is or isn’t the case with Baez, but if it is, I wouldn’t be surprised. Its like the case with catchers. The better they hit coming up, the less anybody pays attention to the rest of their game. Its why I always want to wait and see.
Bob – Very interesting points with Dos Santos. He gets a bit lost with all the prospects we have running around these days. He’s just not a guy I’ve personally seen much of yet. I have him currently at 19, but maybe I need to reconsider him. Those are some pretty incredible numbers, albeit a small sample size when you only look at July forward. He could be the most under-the-radar big time prospect in our system. I’ll stick with Franklin (and then Jo Baez after that) here for me, but then I’ll take another look at the next group after that.
I had been thinking about moving Dos Santos up from my 15-20 group to 10-15, and now Bob has me thinking about it again. I have trouble trying to project the teens who came up in the DR. I imagine them playing 24-7 since diapers, then some kind of near child labor academy. It would not be surprising a kid would be impressive by the time they came stateside at 18. That said, the ones that are ahead at 18 don’t all stay ahead once everyone else catches up. Still, results count and he has put up results.
I like Hernandez and Dos Santos, too….but I still have Condon and Luna ahead of them. Even with a smaller sample size from both Luna and Condon, their results back up the profiles, to me it solidifies their standing. I have Condon in my Top 10…60 Hit, 70 speed, 55-60 Defense….those don’t grow on trees. Luna’s might be the closest thing we have to 5 Tool, he definitely has the loudest bat…incredible EV’s from Luna.
I have Hernandez and Dos Santos close to my Top 15. We’re so deep in prospects, they have to fall that way.
2 years ago, they’re probably Top 10.
This is a little rich for me for Dos Santos. I’m not sure he’s a shortstop in the long run, I’d bet on 2B being his mostly likely landing spot. I like the bat but a lot of strong rookie ball bats don’t end up turning into major leaguers. I really like Dos Santos, but not over some of the names I have on the top of my board still, most notably Joshua Baez (who I voted for) and Tanner Franklin.
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