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It looks like 4 or 5 players need protection this off-season. Baez, Bernal, Church, Prieto, and possibly Rincon. Love maybe too, but with his injury history he probably won’t get selected.
“27” – I doubt Prieto is protected.
It’s a bit early to start guessing. We should at least get through the trade deadline first to see who is still here and who is gone.
Is Drew Rom eligible for the Rule 5 this year? If so, I would think he might need to be protected, even though he can’t stay healthy!
Rom is not the sort of player anyone is likely to take. He’s hurt through at least the end of this season and maybe into next.
Thanks for starting this “27”. It’s a bit early but I’ll take a stab.
We can revisit this in September, but right now you have the following guys who the team must protect:
1. Crooks
2. Bernal
3. Josh BaezThen, you get into guys who they probably should protect, but maybe it isn’t 100% clear yet (from most risk to least risk of being taken):
1. Hjerpe
2. Rincon
3. Rajcic
4. Church
5. Jordan
6. Mautz
7. HansenThen you have some guys who they probably aren’t protecting but it’s certainly possible someone might decide to steal (again, in order from most to least risk):
1. Prieto
2. Love
3. Ralston
4. Curtis Taylor
5. Winquest
6. Rivas
7. Bedell
8. Clemente
9. Rom/NaughtonI generally placed pitchers ahead of hitters because that’s typically who gets taken in Rule 5. For example , Church may be a better prospect than Rajcic at this point, but Rajcic is more likely to be taken. Generally, it’s easier to hide a pitcher in the bullpen so pitchers tend to get taken more often. If I were guessing today, I would guess the team protects each of the first 8 players on this list and stops at Blaze Jordan leaving Mautz and Hansen exposed. That’s a lot of guys to protect though. And with our shortage of lefties in the system, they may need to protect one or both of those final two as well. Let’s see how each of these guys does down the stretch.
I think I would move Love up to category 2. I think there is actually a good chance he gets selected if left unprotected. One of 29 teams will think they can stash him for a little bit for low leverage situations and work him up like the Cards did with Ryan Fernandez last year.
I don’t think I would protect Rincon, Rajcic, or Hansen from category 2. All 3 have really weak fastballs and are probably #5 SP or bust types as they wouldn’t make valuable RP with weak stuff.
That would still leave me with the following to potentially protect in my opinion which is still 8 guys and too many. Reordered for my priority listing. I put a line between 6 and 7 as that is where I would maybe draw the line unless we have a lot of spots open. I would have to look later. Jordan went unclaimed last year and is more likely to get claimed this year, but it is hard to roster a 1B type if you already have a lot of 1B types around. Get rid of someone like Gorman and maybe he is a valuable add.
1. Crooks
2. Bernal
3. Baez
4. Hjerpe
5. Love
6. Church
———-
7. Jordan
8. MautzI could see Love being in the 2nd group. Great ERA of 2.09 at Springfield this season. Good bullpen piece that could be stashed. At one strikeout an inning this season but has been a bit higher over his career, which is good. On the other side of the coin, he’ll be 27 in January, has never pitched above AA, has an extensive injury history, and has a career ERA of 4.77 in the minors. The last month and a half could decide it for him. I probably should have put him over Prieto at the top of the third group.
Rajcic just turned 24 a couple days ago, has never been injured (at least not for long), is still a starter, has a career 3.65 ERA, and is at a strikeout an inning. Plus, he’s now gotten to AAA. His WHIP is much higher than Love though and no question his fastball is worse. I get the argument that a team might not take him. Maybe.
Rincon is 23 and still will be at the start of next season (turns 24 at end of April), has a career 3.56 ERA, is still a starter, is well above a strikeout an inning this season, doesn’t have an injury history, and maintains a good WHIP. He’s never been above AA same as Love. Yes, his fastball is weaker, but he has a better pitch arsenal and to my eye is a far better pitcher all around because he knows how to get batters out. However, he just went on the 7-day IL the other day for an undisclosed injury. He would be a big loss in Rule 5 unless his current injury is a major setback. If his current injury is minor, I’m definitely protecting him.
Jnevel, I understand your comments on Rajcic and Rincon. I think Rajcic and Rincon are both about as good or slightly better prospects than Love, but RP are easier to take in the R5 draft as it is easier for a guy with good stuff that is raw to be valuable in the pen while making it as a starter is difficult if you aren’t more polished. Rincon and Rajcic don’t have great stuff to play up in the pen and I don’t know if a team would use a roster spot for the whole year on either one of them. I only have Mautz slightly higher as he is a lefty and he does have a little better fastball that could maybe play up in the pen.
A bit of history to share.
My experience (with details back to 2002) is that the list of players actually protected turn out to be shorter than many expect. It is only natural that we know more about Cardinals players, but much less how they stack up against guys already in the other organizations (who might consider taking them in the Rule 5 draft).
Even so, those Cardinals left unprotected are rarely lost in the draft and far less often become difference makers at the MLB level later on.
In the Major League phase, more often than not, the Cardinals don’t lose anyone (nine in 23 years). They usually don’t pick anyone, either (eight in 23 years). And of those 17, seven were later returned.
The two Luis Perdomos were the most notable losses in that time (and their career bWARs were -1.2 and -0.3). Matt Bowman (0.3 bWAR with StL and 0.5 career) is the biggest gain. Most recently, Ryan Fernandez erased his small 2024 positive with a -1.1 bWAR 2025.
It is a fun topic to discuss, though, so carry on!
The good news is they can be removed just as easy as they are added. 40-man churn can be a good thing.
Brian, part of the process that happens occurs before the deadline. Guys that would be added get added earlier making for less guys to be added at the deadline. So while there may be 8 or even up to 10 in consideration today, that number will probably be 4-6 by the deadline. That dilutes it down a bit.
Crooks and Bernal are the only 100% sure adds unless they are traded. Baez and Hjerpe are extremely likely to be added. Rincon is the first question mark from my list.
It’s the Rajcic’s, Church’s, and Love’s of the world that often get left exposed. Those are the ones who you’re referring to that probably end up with under 5 career WAR.
Yes, I understand that. But unless there is a need for August or September promotions to StL, there is no reason to add any guys to the 40-man early.
Looking at that list of players, none are currently ready for MLB, IMO. The two names that might be closest are Crooks and Jordan, but given the StL roster post-deadline, without late season injuries, there doesn’t seem room for either in 2025. Catcher and first base are pretty well covered already.
If they can clear some of the StL roster logjam in the off-season, it will create more opportunity.
I thought it would be good to bump this discussion up a bit since the end of the season is so close. I agree with most of the sentiments posted on this thread, and have noticed in the past few years what Brian mentioned about fewer players being protected than most expect each year. I did notice that no one mentioned Bryan Torres or Curtis Taylor as players that should be protected. Maybe they don’t have the numbers to warrant protection, but both could be taken by a needy team. Regardless, this offseason should be very interesting to watch how the Cardinals navigate the roster and free agency. As mentioned in an earlier post, some 40 man spots could be freed up by trades this fall as well!
I think with all of those added like Prieto and Crooks the only additional players I’d add are Bernal, Baez and Mautz, and possibly Love. The others finished the year injured, and would be difficult to stash. I would like to think of who might get Dfad. Possibly Roycroft and Munoz. I really would like to have seen Taylor promoted and given a tryout. Torres and Jordan won’t likely be taken. Maybe Pages or Pozo get let go. I’d really like to keep Pozo overvPages.i can see a Thompson dfad after coming off the 60 day dl.
I would hope the Cards at least put the players who are questionable to be taken in the Rule 5 on the AAA roster to protect them from the minor league phase of the draft. We never seem to “see” that list before the deadline, but I’m sure Chaim and the boys know who they want to protect. I am thinking about Hansen, Rincon, and Saladin. I am assuming Hjerpe and Mautz(?) will be protected by a 40-man slot, but who knows?
I was surprised last fall when Baker was not protected and was picked up in the minor league phase, especially after pitching in the AFL last year.Taking a look at the end of year Rule 5 Draft situation, the team has 40 on the 40-man roster today. They also have Zack Thompson on the 60-day IL that will be added back. They have Mikolas coming off, so ultimately, that leaves them flat right at 40 members.
No one knows what Chaim Bloom will do when it comes to the trade front or on who he values most. But I’d like to take some quick educated guesses based on who needs to be protected and who can be let go.
Back on Aug 4, I laid out the whole list of names that should be considered. The order has changed some given that a trio were added already (Crooks, Prieto, and Church) and Mautz and Hansen played very well down the stretch. I’m going to just list here who I think needs to be protected and then a several others worth considering, but not go all the way to the maybe, possibly will be picked guys:
1. Baez
2. Bernal
3. Hjerpe
4. MautzI think these 4 are surefire adds. Yes, Hjerpe is hurt. But the potential exists for him to be at least a great bullpen arm. Someone will take him given that fact. I don’t see a world where Baez and Bernal aren’t added and Mautz pitched too well down the stretch where someone would surely add him as a lefty reliever in their MLB pen if he’s not taken.
Several others worth considering:
1. Blaze Jordan – Blaze had an incredible season. He was one of minor league baseball’s better players – especially before he came to Memphis where he initially struggled. But he’s a 1B/3B bench player right now who may or may not hit at all in the big leagues. Is that worth protecting? Not sure, but I’m putting him as the #1 alternate.
2. Pete Hansen – Pete had a very good year at Springfield. He’s a starting pitcher with good control and left handed. He’s maybe a touch old for the age level, but certainly still young enough yet to be considered a prospect. He could easily be stashed in a bullpen. I happen to think he would likely be terrible right now in the big leagues if he were taken. But, someone could let him be terrible knowing that there’s a chance they are stealing a potential future lefty starter.
3. Hancel Rincon – Hancel got hurt about the 3/4 mark of the season. He was having an excellent year and had he kept it up, I think he would have been protected for sure. I don’t know much about his injury. I think that’s a big factor here on whether he gets protected or not. The other problem for the Cardinals is if they don’t add him to the 40-man roster, he would be a minor league free agent and go wherever he wants. Again, I think this one mostly comes down to his injury and the time it will take to recover and what the feeling is on where his effectiveness will initially be when he recovers.
4. Max Rajcic – He’s an innings workhorse, but they typically aren’t real effective innings. He’s still relatively young and pitched most of the season in AAA. But he never dominated AA. And he’s right-handed, which makes him a little less useful. I don’t think he gets protected and I doubt he gets taken.
5. Austin Love – He’s been converted to a reliever after a few injury-ridden seasons and finished at AA. He’s a bit old now with a lot of injury history. But he did have a good year. Jumping to the majors would be a large step though. I doubt he gets protected and my guess is that he would not get taken.
6. Cade Winquest – He had a successful season in High A and AA. The results aren’t always there, but the stuff always gets rave reviews. He would likely be terrible in the majors if selected, but someone could try to stash him for his longer-term potential. I doubt he is protected and I doubt he gets taken.
The team then needs to make at least 4 holes on the 40-man roster. I’d love to see them protect the next 3 that I listed as well for fear they will be taken (or lost in Rincon’s case). I’ll project that they end up protecting 6 more in total – the 4 I have as for sure and 2 of the next 3. Although it could be all 7.
That means we need to make 6-7 holes on the roster. A few are easy for me.
Jorge Alcala – No options left. This is the kind of guy a team can always pick up. His fastball is good but results were mediocre.
Roddery Munoz – Like Alcala, he has no options left. He was up and down this season with poorer results at the MLB level. No reason to keep him.
John King – King will be Arbitration 3 eligible. That means he may be more expensive through the arb process than a guy with his mediocre results would be on the open market. I think the Cardinals cut him.
Chris Roycroft – Yet another up and down reliever. Roycroft is just too wild to trust. He does have an option year left so it’s possible he stays. But my guess is he is gone.
Michael Siani – While Siani does have an option year left, Nathan Church has made Siani redundant. We don’t need 3 left handed center fielders who can’t really hit. Siani is the oldest of that bunch. He’s an easy cut.
Yohel Pozo – Pozo played very well. And he could be optioned to Memphis as a backup. But with Herrera trying to become a catcher again and with Crooks having gotten his feet wet at the big leagues and with Bernal going to the 40-man roster as well, there’s just no reason to keep Pozo. We can’t have 5 rostered catchers.
OK. That’s 6 holes that we just made pretty easily. I think there’s a small chance Roycroft or King stays, but they are likely all gone.
Other options:
Sem Robberse – The Cardinals could try to DFA him and pass him through waivers. He was hurt most of the year and has had poor results thus far at Memphis. But he’s really young. Surely someone would take him, right? I would think so. But it might not be a big loss.
Zack Thompson – Pretty much the same thing as Robberse except that he’s not as young and has a little big league experience.
Matt Koperniak – He’ll be 28 entering next season and hit poorly this year at Memphis.
Cesar Prieto – this would be an odd cut since the team just added him to the 40-man roster. But I’m not a Prieto fan and was really surprised to see him added.
Anthony Veneziano – We picked him up via waivers mid season and he was up and done. He does have an option left though and he had ok results. Still, he’d be relatively easy to replace.
Nick Raquet – He’ll be 30 next season. The team did add him to the 40-man. He has all his options left. I think he and Veneziano make King more likely to go. But I think Raquet probably stays even though he’s a marginal guy at the end of the roster. Having plenty of option years make him a valuable Memphis shuttle piece.
So as you can see, there are lots of options for cuts. And this doesn’t even count if they trade away Arenado or Gray or someone like Gorman or Burleson. Perhaps they will protect even more than 7 players form Rule 5 or go in to that draft having some roster openings so they can potentially pick someone up?
As a reminder, Maton cost $2 MM. By waiting until spring to sign King’s replacement, it would buy them roster time. While waiting also narrows the pool, decent relievers are generally available even late.
Not necessarily saying they should drop him, but there could be some reason for doing so.
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