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“This is a little rich for me for Dos Santos….I like the bat but a lot of strong rookie ball bats don’t end up turning into major leaguers.”
“This is all very interesting discussion on the DSL/FCL guys….guys like Dos Santos, Hernandez and Luna are part of that next wave of prospects who could easily be Top 5 next year if they dominate again.”
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I agree that rookieball prospects are unusually volatile — but the thing of it is, Dos Santos and Hernandez played very well for Palm Beach in the Florida State League, which of course is full season A-Ball. That is a huge step up from rookieball, and they each handled it without a hitch.
Just to put their 2026 Palm Beach hitting performances into a proper context, there were nine middle infielders in all of the full season minor leagues this year who posted at least a 125 OPS+, while also being multiple years young for their level of competition. Just nine guys. (Min. 100 PA’s.)
Two of those nine are Sebastian Dos Santos and Miguel Hernandez. The other seven are all on MLB.com’s top 100 list, and all seven are also within the top 75 at Fangraphs. The average ranking for those seven is 33rd at Fangraphs and 25th at MLB.com. That is the peer group for SDS and Miggy. (The pair of Redbirds, by the way, averaged a 146 OPS+, while the other seven averaged 141, so no real difference to speak of.)
But if we get even more granular re age and level of competition, there were just three fellow 18-year-old middle infielders in Low-A who posted at least a 125 OPS+ in 2026. Those three have an average rank of 32 at Fangraphs and 35 at MLB.com.
Call me crazy, but all things considered I don’t think SDS & Miggy are any riskier than Joshua Baez, due to their substantial present advantage in both plate discipline and potential defensive contribution. In my opinion, both our 18-year-old shortstops rate an overall top 50 ranking, with Dos Santos around #40 or so. He looks like Lindor Lite to me.
Forgive my long-windedness. And thanks, everyone, for the responses to my previous post!
#5 Joshua Baez
I do like Bob’s thinking though as I am high on both Dos Santos and Hernandez, but I’m going with Baez who has hit well in the bigs, but the defense is lacking.
Franklin is a good choice here as well and other guys I would have considered like Fajardo and Jesus Baez.
I can’t vote for Tanner Franklin at this point, because Yhoiker Fajardo is two years younger and produced essentially the same stat line (actually slightly better) at both High A and AA.
Tanner Franklin – 22 Years Old
A+ – 72.2 IP; 4.21 ERA; 1.25 WHIP; 91K/32BB; .218 BAA
AA – 32.1 IP; 3.34 ERA; 1.30 WHIP; 42K/13BB; .246 BAAYhoiker Fajardo – 20 Years Old
A+ – 76.1 IP; 4.01 ERA; 1.34 WHIP; 106K/26BB; .256 BAA
AA – 25.0 IP; 3.24 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; 24K/7BB; .268 BAANow, Franklin sits 94-98 mph with his fastball, and has added two pitches this year, giving him a total of four. Fajardo sits 93-95 mph and only has three pitches. But Fajardo is two years younger, pitching at the same levels, with comparable results. I have to give the edge to Fajardo, who is not my #5.
Josh Baez has too much swing-and-miss for me to believe he will be a valuable contributor at the major league level. Add in questions about his defense, and I just can’t vote for him here. I understand the Cardinals will give him every opportunity for multiple years.
Lacking a clear choice at #5, I will back Bob’s choice for Sebastian dos Santos at #5.
I knew both Dos Santos and Hernandez had spent about half the season at A-ball, but I didn’t realize just how many ABs Dos Santos had there, or just how great his performance was there. You’ve definitely given a compelling argument for Dos Santos.
Also glad to here Fajardo mentioned this early, even if he hasn’t gotten a vote. I love Fajardo and will probably be saying his name before too long here.
LACardFan
Josh Baez has too much swing-and-miss for me to believe he will be a valuable contributor at the major league level. Add in questions about his defense, and I just can’t vote for him here.He kind of already has been a contributor:
.788 OPS (119 OPS+) in 108 PAs.
. I have to give the edge to Fajardo, who is not my #5.
It’s interesting that the comparison has come up, as Franklin was talked about quite a bit on the Wednesdays With Walton and Reis podcast this morning, based on this BA article:
With a very solid vote share in what I believe is the largest turnout for a round yet , your 2027 TCN Community #5 prospect is Joshua Baez, OF. Very well done, Joshua.
1. Rainiel Rodriguez, C
2. Quinn Mathews, LHP
3. Liam Doyle, LHP
4. Leo Bernal, C
5. Joshua Baez, OFVoting is now open for the #6 prospect. Voting will close at 12 PM CT/1 PM ET on Friday, October 16th.
#6 Tanner Franklin, RHP 50/60, Risk Med
Tanner Franklin is a guy that I toyed with putting a lot higher than his already lofty ranking (I have him 5th). He simply got better and better as the season went on, which is both unusual (for a college reliever) and sort of expected (for a guy getting comfortable after a lot more reps than he’s ever had before). He really dominated in his last few starts, including the postseason. The fastball pushes up close to 100 mph, and while the movement isn’t quite as good as Doyle, his college teammate commands his fastball better, which sets a nice floor for his career. The secondaries are good pitches, with the cutter being an excellent pitch. Still, you could easily see him as a better prospect than Doyle simply because of the command. He’s been getting some love lately, including one BA article saying that “it’s possible that Franklin has the best starter stuff of any pitcher in the minors.”
Given his command and excellent results in his first full pro season, it’s exciting to think about Franklin at Memphis next year. It’s possible they give him some starts at Springfield to let the logjam start to clear above, but he should have every shot to make it to St Louis by 2028. The reliever risk bumps him down very slightly, but I’m very pumped about Tanner’s potential as a front line guy for us for many years to come.
I might be in the minority on this one but I am going with Jesus Baez at number 6.
He exploded onto the scene in a robust way, much more than I was expecting. There are some non-statistical aspects to his game that warrant further attention but his 2026 stats are hard to ignore.
Sebastian Dos Santos for #6, please.
He’s posted an OBP of at least .400 at all three levels, including hitter’s graveyard Palm Beach. He hit much better at Palm Beach than his fellow 18-year-old, Alexander Frias — and Frias is an outfielder ranked in the overall top 50 by Fangraphs and top 70 by Keith Law.
Dos Santos had a dandy 129 OPS+ at Palm Beach. But the cool part is, he got better and better as the season progressed. Overall, 129 OPS+ and an excellent BB/K ratio of 0.73. Real good, right?
Well, from July 15 forward, he had a 155 OPS+. A bat like that is a star at any position.
Best of all, over his final 100 plate appearances, SDS had an 1.109 OPS with more walks than strikeouts. (That was an OPS+ of roughly 180.)Finally for the cherry on top, he homered from each side of the plate in the season’s final game. And both homers were opposite field shots. This bird can HIT.
#6 Tanner Franklin again.
He’s my #4. I’m highly confident he’s going to be a good one for a long time to come if he avoids major injuries (which is a caveat we could put on every pitcher). At this point in time, Tanner is probably my favorite prospect to watch.
Just off the top of my head Ragsdale, Frias, Peete, Franklin, Molina, Cinjtje, Fajardo, Odle, Clarke, Condon etc make it difficult for me to choose Dos Santos ahead of some of them. I have Dos Santos at 9, which only speaks of our depth down on our farm. And if I have to pick between Franklin and Fajardo, I’ll take Franklin because he has a lower BAA. So Franklin is my number 6. It’s going t be difficult if Franklin is our6.
I am going with Tanner Franklin at #6. I was not a believer in his transition to a starting pitcher, but he had a great season and has really proven himself. His raw stats don’t jump off the page as much as some others in this range, but he looks electric and should be a good reliever even if the starter transition doesn’t end up working out in the long-run.
I will go with Franklin as my #6 as well. Lots of tough choices close to the top! I like how he closed the season out! If our pitchers stay healthy, it should be a very good year for the minors and potentially the majors for the next few years!
Bob Padilla had a lost season yet the organization kept pushing, and Padilla kept appwaring as a middle of the order bat at DH. How far below the two do you have Padilla?
This bird can HIT.
The above 4 words from Bobby Reed’s lips sealed it for me. I’m going with SADS (that’s “Sebastian Alessandro Dos Santos” to the layman) as St. Louis Cardinals #6 Top Prospect. A couple notes that Bobby did not mention is that this kid simply doesn’t ground into DP’s. And he’s brave. It doesn’t appear that he’s adverse to getting plunked by 98 mph heaters. An oddity is that Sebastian, in his professional career, has yet to be issued an intentional free pass……..oh boy they’re coming for this future star.
An interesting comparison for next season for Franklin is draftee Cal Randall. Randall was a reliever with a 100 mph fastball. The only difference is that Franklin had a dynamite 90-91 mph cutter as a potential plus pitch. Maybe they can have Randall develop a secondary pitch or two.
Maybe they can have Randall develop a secondary pitch or two.
I guess he spent his draft season trying to do that, and refining the control of his FB. It will be fun to see what he looks like. Kuhns also.
“Bob: Padilla had a lost season yet the organization kept pushing, and Padilla kept appearing as a middle of the order bat at DH. How far below the two do you have Padilla?”
Good question, I’m glad someone mentioned Padilla. Gracias, Nigel.
I have Yairo in the 12-15 range among Redbird farmhands, which equates to somewhere in the 120-150 range among all prospects.Just to quibble a bit, it wasn’t a completely lost season for young Yairo. He did play, albeit mainly at DH, as you alluded to. But if we count him as a shortstop, well, I mentioned in a previous post that only nine middle infielders in all of the minors this year posted at least a 125 OPS+ while being multiple years young for their level of competition. Fact is, Yairo didn’t miss being the 10th member of that illustrious group by much. (He had a 118 OPS+ and was 1 year + 362 days young for the Florida State League.)
Sadly, he missed much time in 2026 with that injury. But just for fun let’s take the six weeks he played for Palm Beach and extrapolate out to 160 games.
That would be .281 with 50 doubles, 11 triples, and 17 homers. Also 55 steals. Also 72 bases on balls. (Umm, and an astonishing 39 GIDP’s. Unlike SDS, who did not ground into a single double play in 31 Palm Beach opportunities [thanks, Pugs, for reminding me of that pleasant eccentricity].)
To put it another way, if Yairo had done what he did at Palm Beach for 80 or 90 games, he’d be a top 100 prospect for me. But 30 games? I think “top 100” is a level or two too aggressive.
In other words, he’s still a very good prospect — thanks to the power boost an even better one when it comes to hitting, than he was a year ago. But now his long-term durability is called into question, which is no small matter.
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