Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Fowlers problem is how many people we have in the pipeline and how much production he actually gives versus what we pay.
He has had one season above 3 War (i use baseball reference)… And we paid for it. He simply doesnt have the talent to perform as well as his contract much less outperform it. When you pay that much you want at least a shot at outperforming. He has none… He just isnt that good. Bad signing end of story.
He was a waste of money from day one. An extreme waste of money.
Onyx just let him be.. I see no reason for what he says to be false.
Bccran and I get after each other pretty hard sometimes but I havent seen anything that says liar. Fwiw.
Frankly… They’re a year late being disenchanted with carpenter at minimum. If you say you’re going to improve your defense … He is on the wrong side of thirty and not good enough offensively to make a difference at first. Yes he was solid… But solid doesn’t win world series. Difference makers do.
He was a difference maker at other positions despite bad defense. If you want to improve, you don’t start by shoving a square peg in a round hole. VERY simple math shows he should have been dealt if improving defense is the goal.
They killed adams value. They killed carps value. And they probably killed a few other things too — including the 2017 season.
… And dont get me started on fowler. Last year’s offseason was nauseating. We will be paying for it pretty much until fowler is shown the door…. And carpenter too at this point.
I agree with both of you…. I have this feeling they’re going after hosmer and donaldson… Then dealing carpenter for another player. Maybe stanton. Maybe a pitcher. Not sure.
I’m good with resigning lynn but we should be fine regardless. I’d rather sign hosmer and go with what we have pitching-wise personally if it is a choice… But who knows it might not be.
Weaver having a couple bad starts doesnt bother me so much. 3.88 era and 1.26 whip is nothing to sneeze at. And you had to expect a learning curve for flaherty. He came a long way this year.
Now… How patient I will be next year is an open question but for now I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. If weaver put up those numbers for a year I think I’d be fine with them. I’d hope for better but that’s leake numbers give or take.
I still stand by the idea that having reyes and one more of our aa and aaa starters in long relief will solidify any rotation inning issues we might have. For now anyway… That assumes they give us decent to good innings. I think it is doable with the multitude of arms available.
Pretty much what I was thinking. Weaver has looked much different this year than last. Has been decent. I would expect similar from flaherty.
If he is better than that and can make it a full year great. Having young guys around wainright for a full year even if he is slowing down sure won’t hurt them at all.
I’m not. Being conservative doesn’t disallow progression… In theory anyway.
Just saying… Maybe. I’m not the one making decisions so….
Imo hudson needs another year… Or half year.
Flaherty might need another half year as well.
But having said that… We do need someone. Not sure if a one year stopgap veteran is the right move or not.
I do too… But last I checked both aa and aaa teams have a ton of arms and it isnt exactly a stretch to pull a kid from aa to the bullpen the next year.
We can make it work even with some deals. I agree some of the arms should be gone after this winter but I am in wait and see mode a bit… have to see what happens.
Throwing reyes and say… gomber, helsley or pearce in long relief and would mitigate that worry about young arms and innings lot.
We have the arms to make it work. It will be a constant work in progress… But it is doable.
I would compare O’Neill to jay buhner. Lots of k’s. Will catch a few square.
Good defense in right.
If he hits .270 and keeps the walk rate up he is a major asset. If not, we will see.
He could be one of the bat upgrades… But I wouldnt put him in the pujols stanton trout territory and he isnt the big bat people want.
That doesnt mean he is a bad asset. He seems to be a very good one.
Four years is a lot. Our system is good enough that if you count kelly and weaver… We should have roughly fifteen to twenty young and cheap players hit our roster in the next two years.
Given that 2.5 per year is considered good… Well… We need to realize we have done well on that front and take advantage.
My point with sosa is exactly that he is like 5th on the depth chart right now.
Our depth is ridiculous. Dealing something like five players for one TWICE would make a dent but just about anything short of that won’t even make us bat an eye.
When you’re 20+ players deep on your prospect list and find a guy like seferina who will probably make a big league roster in the next 18 months and do well?
Trust me, your depth has entered the stupid area. In a good way.
I am not necessarily for or against trading dejong btw… Just pointing out his value may have peaked… Or not.
He has the hitting profile to pull a diaz next year. Lots of k’s. The difference is when he hits things they go places… But it is still a worry and one with merit.
If he is hitting sixth or seventh? Im good with going with him. If he is hitting third fourth or fifth not so much. His hot streaks will carry us if he is not in the heart of the lineup. His cold streaks will kill us if he is.
So my opinion of him is dependent on what else we do. If we arent going to go get some thunder we need to deal him while his value is high.
He will get some pretty solid value.
Believe it or not I am ok with diaz coming back. Or sosa end of year getting a call.
That’s what depth is for… to allow you to deal away value to get true need. We are not using it as it is intended right now.
Of course it would… If they produce that way.
… Or we could have massive failures. Again. And be stuck with a bloated roster. Again.
That actually brings up another point… Or an extension of my main one. What to do with diaz… And rosenthal. And kelly. And all these other blocked players that we have.
The whole point here is to eliminate weaknesses by making deals. We have depth. Dump fowler… Bader sierra and others. Dump pham… We have O’Neill. Yes they may be a downgrade… Maybe…
You don’t know.
But the one thing you do know is your stagnant roster failed. Ddoing the same thing again is stupidity.
… And yes bccran I do believe that we improved by replacing bad players.
You know… The ones I wanted to deal away at the dealine and you were yelling so loudly for us to deal for instead of away…
I wanted addition by subtraction. We pretty much got it in spite of ourselves.
To me kelly is upgrading us… By staying. Our backup catcher ab’s have been so pathetic for so long … We were so far negative I’m not sure I even want to look at the stats to see how bad it was for WAR when yadi didnt play
Imo kelly gives us 3 more wins just by staying and starting 60 games.
…. And I will repeat.
We have depth. Using it via trade to upgrade is proper usage rather than letting it sit there.
… And our existing lineup sucked for half the year.
Decent. We didn’t make the playoffs.
Most people tend to want to upgrade when those two facts are put together.
…bccran I think we already knew we had depth. Use it to get better.
No reason not to be great instead of decent.
To give you a quick and dirty idea of why WAR value in dollars is exponential, not linear..
27 players with 2 WAR are not worth the same as 9 players with 6 WAR.
There are only 9 places on a lineup card.
The value of a player goes up exponentially very quickly when you get above 3 or so.
Someone like grichuk (1 WAR plus or minus) is barely worth above the league minumum.
Someone like trout or stanton when they get up around that 8 or 10 WAR is worth roughly the same as the yankees or dodgers payroll. The value gets very high very quickly.
As a thought… If pham were in cf he would be in that territory this year. He has been in that neighborhood with trout…. This year anyway…. Despite playing not-center.
Trout WAR 6.2 in baseball reference
6.5 fangraphsPham 6.3 baseball reference
6.0 fangraphsThink about that a second. We do have options because pham could play center.
I never said it was a horrible trade. One year of one player versus several of three. All it takes is one huge year by one of those players and they win hands down.
I just would rather have us go for better long term assets. You get what you pay for.
Truth is… In principle I kinda like it. Just am not interested in a rental until we fix our long term issues.
Trout. Stanton. Players in that neighborhood. Donaldson is fine… After. If we have anything left that they want.
I know what you meant… I was saying that if anything veb is underestimating it substantially.
WAR value is exponential not linear.
Probably worth more next year if he stays healthy… Those estimates veb uses are using a linear scale for war… WAR is most definitely exponential in value at the high end not linear. If he puts up those numbers I would estimate him worth 50-75 million more not 30.
He still isnt who I would go after… probably. I’m open to suggestions but rentals arent my thing. Send the moon for trout and dump fowler and you get more done than this regardless of the dollar figures involved.
…of course I say that and donaldson hits 60 homers next year and I look like an idiot. Like I said… Im open… Just first blush is making me wince. Badly.
Here is what I do.
1. Release grichuk immediately
2. Give away fowler eating as much as necessary. What a waste.
3. Put pham in center if we feel his eyes are solid. Trade him otherwise. His value is likely maxed out
4. IF we keep pham, deal bader for a big bat. If we deal pham, put bader in center with someone else (sierra?) As a lh/rh platoon. Bader should hit lefties like he did in the minors (well north of 1.000 ops).
5. Trade carpenter
6. Have piscotty learn first. He can play part time at first, left and right with say… Hosmer at first.
7. Sign hosmer
8. Call up Tyler O’Neill and give him a shot in left (yes left). Between him and piscotty we should be ok.
9. Trade the moon for stanton using carpenter, pham, and fowler trades as fuel if we get anything good. We should for pham and carpenter.
The end.
