September 22, 2017 at 7:37 am #33685
Of course, the games themselves will determine the outcome, but I’ve been tracking the changes in Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds daily. As a result of Thursday night’s games, the Cards have passed the Brewers – 24.6 to 23.9 percent. Rockies are at 53.6, Cubs at 97.9.
Before the Reds sweep (and losses by others), the Cardinals were at 6%. In other words, a huge swing this week.September 22, 2017 at 8:36 am #33700
Interesting. The one thing the Cards have going for them are those final seven home games against the two teams in front of them in the division.
This Pittsburgh series will be tough, as the Pirates have better pitching than Cincy. I don’t think we are going to score 8 runs a game this weekend.September 22, 2017 at 11:18 am #33752858booyahParticipantFree
I think we’re a long shot but I’d like my chances in the WC more heading into the final week if he Cubs win the rest or take 2 of 3 vs Mil and Colorado stumbles in SD and loses 2 more.
Also in that stated above the real chance of a 163 game is possible. Would that be played at Busch?September 22, 2017 at 11:48 am #33762
My understanding is Game 163s are only for deciding division titles. If two teams are tied for the wild card, the winner is chosen based on head-to-head record during the season.
The Cards have the advantage over Colorado (4-2), but would need to sweep Milwaukee (7-9 now) in their final three head-to-head games to own the tiebreaker.
Update: Looks like I was wrong about this. Apparently there would be a Game 163 if needed to break a wild card tie. The head-to-head record would only set the game’s location.September 23, 2017 at 8:25 am #33846
Saturday morning odds:
Brewers 11.2September 23, 2017 at 4:53 pm #33923NJ315Participant
Brewers won today.September 25, 2017 at 7:12 am #34059
After the rough weekend for the Cardinals, here are the newest BP odds.
Cards 10.4%September 25, 2017 at 7:17 am #34060
Almost certainly, the Cubs will celebrate winning the division in St. Louis this week.
Chicago’s magic number is 2. They would eliminate Cardinals from the division race with a win in the series opener on Monday, but the earliest Chicago could clinch the division is Tuesday, because the Brewers are off Monday.September 25, 2017 at 7:22 am #34061
Brewers have three at home against Cincy before finishing at Busch.
Rockies have Miami and Dodgers (already clinched), both at home.
Colorado’s wild card magic number is 5 against both Milwaukee and St. Louis.September 25, 2017 at 8:31 am #3406414NyquisTParticipant
The Cards have a chance to do something special for the home-towners @ Busch in this the last week of the season. They may have to run the table to get it done. Of course COL and MIL will have to cooperate in order to give us a chance. Weaver-Martinez-Wacha and Lynn are all going to need to step up vs. CHI. That ought to keep us alive and probably ahead of MIL when they stumble their way into St. Louis.
What? It can’t happen?
ps….. I agree that this scenario is for die-hards only.September 25, 2017 at 8:50 am #34066
Getting slimmer, unless Miami plays some good games and Dodgers don’t rest their regulars. I think we have a good shot against the Brewers but what worries me is have no control over what the Rockies do.September 25, 2017 at 9:36 am #34077
At this point, living in the Denver area, I am fine with the Rox getting that last playoff spot if it’s not us. Our club has never gained the consistency required to get to the post season, and unless we suddenly turn it on this week and beat these good teams we won’t be going anywhere but home in October.
The Rockies are doing things right as an organization and are on a good trajectory, plus I think Bud Black is an excellent manager. A wild card spot would be a nice step for them, even if they go “one-and-done”, which is most likely what will happen.
We’ll see how the week plays out.September 25, 2017 at 9:44 am #34080gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
The Cardinals basically have to win all seven and hope the Rockies lose a few. We have no one to blame but ourselves for being in this position. Hopefully missing the playoffs two years in a row will be motivation for the front office to have an aggressive offseason.September 25, 2017 at 12:18 pm #34100
The front office has been fine. It’s been the underperformance of certain players that caused the problem – Peralta, Diaz, Piscotty, Grichuk, Leake, Broxton, Oh, Siegrist, Rosenthal, etc.September 25, 2017 at 12:27 pm #34102
I don’t see it that black and white. With so many underperforming players, it has to bring both evaluation and coaching into the off-season assessment equation, as well.September 25, 2017 at 12:38 pm #34103BlackHillsCardParticipantFree
I don’t think our player evaluations are the same since Luhnow left. There was a drop off.September 25, 2017 at 1:22 pm #34107
I don’t now how you can anticipate something like this –
2016 – 1.91era/79.2ip/55h/103k/18w
2017 – 4.10era/59.1ip/86h/54k/15w
2016 – 2.77era/61.2ip/42h/66k/26w
2017 – 4.98era/34.1ip/35h/36k/20w
2015 – 233ab/7hr/39rbi/.305ba/.853ops
2016 – 582ab/22hr/85rbi/.273ba/.801ops
2017 – 328ab/9hr/37rbi/.241ba/.724ops
2016 – 404ab/17hr/65rbi/.300ba/.879ops
2017 – 276ab/7hr/20rbi/.264ba/.699ops
I don’t think it coaching. Just severe underproduction. Maybe I’m wrong, but IMHO I don’t think so.
Add in Rosenthal for the cherry on top.September 25, 2017 at 1:33 pm #34108
Here is another off the cuff view. Oh had one US data point season that far exceeded anyone’s expectations and is now 35 with a lot of miles on his arm. Siegrist’s workload, injuries and diminished velocity were all known coming into this year. Piscotty – I have no idea unless you subscribe to the theory he is distracted by his mother’s illness. Diaz is another with only one data point, which was far above what anyone anticipated coming into 2016. He is hardly the first player in MLB history to overachieve as a rookie, only to come back to earth in his second season.
The data crunchers analyze many players’ careers to help them project the future. The analysis is far more sophisticated than simply expecting last year will repeat this year and next year will be like this. The Cards admit they missed out on many this year. My question is if they have pinpointed why?
I am sure hoping the Cards are not sitting back, pinning everything on a bunch of players having bad years. And I would bet they are not.September 25, 2017 at 1:48 pm #34109
I guess it’s partly a problem with the business plan that relies mainly on developing from within. They have data points along the way through the minors, and when a player produces like he is projected to (like Piscotty) in his first 500 or 600 at bats at the major league level, it’s really a disappointment when he falls off badly. I sure hope the same won’t be true with DeJong. Maybe internally develop pitchers are more reliable to predict.September 25, 2017 at 2:21 pm #34120
That is the point. There are many factors that all played into the underachievement. We can argue the percentages forever, but asserting that any of these factors had no impact is a losing argument, IMO.September 25, 2017 at 2:25 pm #34121
This is not playoff odds, but close enough to include here.
Before the season, I would post win predictions from various sources for the Cardinals when I came across them. CC asked me to write them up into an article. I agreed that was a good idea, but did not get it done at the time.
However, I still had the predictions and projections and the links, so I wrote the article now. Obviously, it comes from a different perspective, given what we know now.
Still, this week could decide how this team is remembered.September 25, 2017 at 2:31 pm #34122
On a related topic, several community members offered up win predictions or at least commented about that. I found them and am sharing here.
76 – blingboy. Actually, he did not own the number directly, but delivered a fairly detailed argument that the early Baseball Projectus 76 win projection was reasonable.
82 – nate.
85-90 – bigns11.
high 80’s to 90 – bikemike
no less talented than the 2015 team that won 100 games – CariocaCardinal
So, one’s bottom line on this team may depend on your original expectations.September 26, 2017 at 7:39 am #34177
Tuesday playoff odds.
Cards 8.3September 26, 2017 at 9:11 am #34203
We are getting to the place where we almost have to win out to get the right to play Arizona for a playoff spot. I would probably put us at about 4-5% on doing that and overcoming Colorado and Milwaukee.
Tough season. So many disappointments, and yet some nice contributions from guys we would not have expected.September 27, 2017 at 10:00 am #34317
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