Cards Playoff Odds

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  • #33685
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Of course, the games themselves will determine the outcome, but I’ve been tracking the changes in Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds daily. As a result of Thursday night’s games, the Cards have passed the Brewers – 24.6 to 23.9 percent. Rockies are at 53.6, Cubs at 97.9.

    Before the Reds sweep (and losses by others), the Cardinals were at 6%. In other words, a huge swing this week.

    #33700
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    Interesting. The one thing the Cards have going for them are those final seven home games against the two teams in front of them in the division.

    This Pittsburgh series will be tough, as the Pirates have better pitching than Cincy. I don’t think we are going to score 8 runs a game this weekend.

    #33752
    Avatar858booyah
    Participant

    Free

    I think we’re a long shot but I’d like my chances in the WC more heading into the final week if he Cubs win the rest or take 2 of 3 vs Mil and Colorado stumbles in SD and loses 2 more.

    Also in that stated above the real chance of a 163 game is possible. Would that be played at Busch?

    #33762
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    My understanding is Game 163s are only for deciding division titles. If two teams are tied for the wild card, the winner is chosen based on head-to-head record during the season.

    The Cards have the advantage over Colorado (4-2), but would need to sweep Milwaukee (7-9 now) in their final three head-to-head games to own the tiebreaker.

    Update: Looks like I was wrong about this. Apparently there would be a Game 163 if needed to break a wild card tie. The head-to-head record would only set the game’s location.

    #33846
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Saturday morning odds:

    Cubs 99.2

    Rockies 61.7
    Cards 27.9
    Brewers 11.2

    #33923
    AvatarNJ315
    Participant

    Brewers won today.

    #34059
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    After the rough weekend for the Cardinals, here are the newest BP odds.

    Cubs 99.8%

    Rockies 76.5%
    Brewers 13.2%
    Cards 10.4%

    #34060
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Almost certainly, the Cubs will celebrate winning the division in St. Louis this week.

    Chicago’s magic number is 2. They would eliminate Cardinals from the division race with a win in the series opener on Monday, but the earliest Chicago could clinch the division is Tuesday, because the Brewers are off Monday.

    #34061
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Brewers have three at home against Cincy before finishing at Busch.

    Rockies have Miami and Dodgers (already clinched), both at home.

    Colorado’s wild card magic number is 5 against both Milwaukee and St. Louis.

    #34064
    Avatar14NyquisT
    Participant

    The Cards have a chance to do something special for the home-towners @ Busch in this the last week of the season. They may have to run the table to get it done. Of course COL and MIL will have to cooperate in order to give us a chance. Weaver-Martinez-Wacha and Lynn are all going to need to step up vs. CHI. That ought to keep us alive and probably ahead of MIL when they stumble their way into St. Louis.

    What? It can’t happen?
    ps….. I agree that this scenario is for die-hards only.

    #34066
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    Getting slimmer, unless Miami plays some good games and Dodgers don’t rest their regulars. I think we have a good shot against the Brewers but what worries me is have no control over what the Rockies do.

    #34077
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    At this point, living in the Denver area, I am fine with the Rox getting that last playoff spot if it’s not us. Our club has never gained the consistency required to get to the post season, and unless we suddenly turn it on this week and beat these good teams we won’t be going anywhere but home in October.

    The Rockies are doing things right as an organization and are on a good trajectory, plus I think Bud Black is an excellent manager. A wild card spot would be a nice step for them, even if they go “one-and-done”, which is most likely what will happen.

    We’ll see how the week plays out.

    #34080
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The Cardinals basically have to win all seven and hope the Rockies lose a few. We have no one to blame but ourselves for being in this position. Hopefully missing the playoffs two years in a row will be motivation for the front office to have an aggressive offseason.

    #34100
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    The front office has been fine. It’s been the underperformance of certain players that caused the problem – Peralta, Diaz, Piscotty, Grichuk, Leake, Broxton, Oh, Siegrist, Rosenthal, etc.

    #34102
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    I don’t see it that black and white. With so many underperforming players, it has to bring both evaluation and coaching into the off-season assessment equation, as well.

    #34103
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
    Participant

    Free

    I don’t think our player evaluations are the same since Luhnow left. There was a drop off.

    #34107
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    I don’t now how you can anticipate something like this –

    Oh –

    2016 – 1.91era/79.2ip/55h/103k/18w
    2017 – 4.10era/59.1ip/86h/54k/15w

    Siegrist –

    2016 – 2.77era/61.2ip/42h/66k/26w
    2017 – 4.98era/34.1ip/35h/36k/20w

    Piscotty –

    2015 – 233ab/7hr/39rbi/.305ba/.853ops
    2016 – 582ab/22hr/85rbi/.273ba/.801ops
    2017 – 328ab/9hr/37rbi/.241ba/.724ops

    Diaz –

    2016 – 404ab/17hr/65rbi/.300ba/.879ops
    2017 – 276ab/7hr/20rbi/.264ba/.699ops

    I don’t think it coaching. Just severe underproduction. Maybe I’m wrong, but IMHO I don’t think so.
    Add in Rosenthal for the cherry on top.

    #34108
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Here is another off the cuff view. Oh had one US data point season that far exceeded anyone’s expectations and is now 35 with a lot of miles on his arm. Siegrist’s workload, injuries and diminished velocity were all known coming into this year. Piscotty – I have no idea unless you subscribe to the theory he is distracted by his mother’s illness. Diaz is another with only one data point, which was far above what anyone anticipated coming into 2016. He is hardly the first player in MLB history to overachieve as a rookie, only to come back to earth in his second season.

    The data crunchers analyze many players’ careers to help them project the future. The analysis is far more sophisticated than simply expecting last year will repeat this year and next year will be like this. The Cards admit they missed out on many this year. My question is if they have pinpointed why?

    I am sure hoping the Cards are not sitting back, pinning everything on a bunch of players having bad years. And I would bet they are not.

    #34109
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    I guess it’s partly a problem with the business plan that relies mainly on developing from within. They have data points along the way through the minors, and when a player produces like he is projected to (like Piscotty) in his first 500 or 600 at bats at the major league level, it’s really a disappointment when he falls off badly. I sure hope the same won’t be true with DeJong. Maybe internally develop pitchers are more reliable to predict.

    #34120
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    That is the point. There are many factors that all played into the underachievement. We can argue the percentages forever, but asserting that any of these factors had no impact is a losing argument, IMO.

    #34121
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    This is not playoff odds, but close enough to include here.

    Before the season, I would post win predictions from various sources for the Cardinals when I came across them. CC asked me to write them up into an article. I agreed that was a good idea, but did not get it done at the time.

    However, I still had the predictions and projections and the links, so I wrote the article now. Obviously, it comes from a different perspective, given what we know now.

    Still, this week could decide how this team is remembered.

    https://thecardinalnation.com/revisiting-pre-season-cardinals-win-projections/

    #34122
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    On a related topic, several community members offered up win predictions or at least commented about that. I found them and am sharing here.

    76 – blingboy. Actually, he did not own the number directly, but delivered a fairly detailed argument that the early Baseball Projectus 76 win projection was reasonable.

    82 – nate.

    85-90 – bigns11.

    high 80’s to 90 – bikemike

    no less talented than the 2015 team that won 100 games – CariocaCardinal

    So, one’s bottom line on this team may depend on your original expectations.

    #34177
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Tuesday playoff odds.

    Cubs 100%

    Rockies 72.3
    Brewers 19.3
    Cards 8.3

    #34203
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    We are getting to the place where we almost have to win out to get the right to play Arizona for a playoff spot. I would probably put us at about 4-5% on doing that and overcoming Colorado and Milwaukee.

    Tough season. So many disappointments, and yet some nice contributions from guys we would not have expected.

    #34317
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Wednesday’s odds.

    Cubs 100%

    Rockies 75.1
    Brewers 17.7
    Cards 7.2

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