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I liked Donaldson as a target when we could have used him for TWO years worth of value… but with just one…i am not sure the steep price would be worth it…
how steep would i go?
Grichuk or a good prospect not named Sierra or Bader or Oneill… plus a decent pitching prospect and decent middle infield prospect
probably woudlnt get it done though
NOW…if we could get Donaldson and Osuna….then that changes things
oh…and as for us strongly pursuing Donaldson this offseason…. why now and not earlier in the year when it could have helped TWO years?
he was coming back from an injury around the trade deadline so i get that his value might have been seen as lower…but i cant imagine we are only interested NOW
Maybe the Cards have had interest for a long time (which has been reported), but because Toronto was still trying to make the playoffs then, they were less interested in talking. Or maybe they talked and had a mismatch in expectations at that time. Remember that to make a deal, both sides have to be interested – and there can be a huge gap between interest and having the right conditions on both sides to actually trade.
That’s the same team what will change for 2018 other than “improving” the bullpen? I won’t bore you with the details but DeJong drop his OPS from .932 to .803 from first to second half. When his slugging goes down he becomes average because his OBP is not good. Same for Gyorko from .892 to .692 basically same reasons as DeJong. The definition of insanity is keeping the same as before and expecting better results. That’s an average middle of the pack team again.
That’s assuming he is that. You can give him next year to see who he really is but you need to upgrade other positions to be a better team. That team bccran suggested is the same average team we all know.
DeJong MLB OPS in 2017 –
May – 1.182
June – .738
July – .985
August – .844
September – .762How many times has DeJong played a 6 month professional season?
NJ –
1. Molina is Molina.
2. Wong is above average.
3. DeJong is above average so far.
4. Grorko could be upgraded as a full time player, but not by a whole lot. Look at his numbers.
6. Pham is 20/20 and over .300.
7. Fowler is average to slightly above average.
8. O’Neill may be your young big bat in 2018 or 2019. They probably won’t want to block him.Where’s your realistic upgrade potential? Third base?
Carp is still an above average leadoff man.
The fact that he happens to play 1B is a little out of sync.It is not nonsense at all. If you keep doing the same thing the same way and failing why would you keep doing it?
They need an upgrade period. 1B and/or 3B. That team is just not that good. Nobody knows what DeJong is….remember Diaz?
Sorry Bccran if we go and use that offense for next year we will have same outcome as this year…missing post season…that offense was pathetic for most of the year, just because they scored a ton of runs the last month doesn’t change the first part STUNK.
Go big or go home. Again. You upgrade by paying the price to do so.
You can upgrade several of those positions. One of them just by playing kelly for sixty games (his stats even if they are lower than molina would be a huge upgrade over the backup catcher abs from this year). I doubt they would be much lower than molina if they are.
Having said that.. Would I trade for donaldson? Nope.
You’d be paying for past performance. He is going to be 33 next year.
Who would I trade? Literally anyone. You do what should have been done at the deadline. Shed some salary, trade maxed out and/or aging talent (dejong, pham, and carpenter off the top of my head) and backfill as needed. You get two big bats… At least.
Just not donaldson. This is not a rolen trade. This is not even a mcgwire trade. He is too old for the price they would want.
Pay for solutions not more problems.
Donaldson could probably be had for a package of Piscotty, Gyorko, and Weaver. Viva El Birdos said that Donaldson is projected to be worth about $28.5M in surplus value next year plus we’d potentially get a QO draft pick worth about $10.0M.
Thus, Piscotty is about a $10M a year guy, Gyorko is around $15M, and Weaver is about $15M, which makes it about even for 2018.
Then, Toronto would get the excess value from these guys being under contract for several more years.
Toronto would shore up 3B (or 2B) with Gyorko until Bichette/Guerrero are ready, the outfield to replace Bautista, and the rotation to go with their four current starters.
We could then go with an outfield of Pham, Fowler, and Grichuk with Bader as the 4th and O’Neill in AAA as insurance. Grichuk isn’t nearly as bad if he’s batting 7th or 8th. The lineup would be Carpenter, Wong, Pham, Donaldson, Fowler, DeJong, Molina, Grichuk.
I guess I don’t understand what is wrong with Gyorko at 3B on a full time basis? The problem with Gyorko is that he is NOT a cleanup hitter. More a 5th/6th type hitter.
People keep mentioning Grichuk. Where have you people been? Low averages with a TON of strikeouts. Donaldson would help but the Redbirds would be better off with Stanton or JD Martinez in the lineup.
Bottom line, as far as I am concerned, gauge from the Marlins as soon as possible what they want for Stanton – if they are willing to trade. If that’s not feasible – and I think its going to be – then pursue JD Martinez hammer and tong. Let Gyorko be the everyday 3Bman.
I agree with those that say if we stay the course we will have the same results that we have had the last couple of years. A decent team, but just not good enough to get the job done.
The only thing the Cardinals have going for them that could make them a lot better next year would be the return of Alex Reyes. And, unfortunately, that is a big question mark at the moment.
r/Rat
Probably worth more next year if he stays healthy… Those estimates veb uses are using a linear scale for war… WAR is most definitely exponential in value at the high end not linear. If he puts up those numbers I would estimate him worth 50-75 million more not 30.
He still isnt who I would go after… probably. I’m open to suggestions but rentals arent my thing. Send the moon for trout and dump fowler and you get more done than this regardless of the dollar figures involved.
…of course I say that and donaldson hits 60 homers next year and I look like an idiot. Like I said… Im open… Just first blush is making me wince. Badly.
That’s his (and the other players) excess value, meaning after you subtract his $24.0M salary.
I mean, I’m okay with Moustakas and Gyorko at 3B and using our trade assets elsewhere.
I know what you meant… I was saying that if anything veb is underestimating it substantially.
WAR value is exponential not linear.
Hmm. That’s interesting. I still think the Blue Jays would be getting the better deal, but sometimes you have to eat value to get a substantial upgrade, like Heyward a few years back.
We should have a batting order that looks like this, as far as OPS –
1 – .835
2 – .941
3 – .844
4 – .879
5 – .851
6 – .813
7 – .751
8 – .788I never said it was a horrible trade. One year of one player versus several of three. All it takes is one huge year by one of those players and they win hands down.
I just would rather have us go for better long term assets. You get what you pay for.
Truth is… In principle I kinda like it. Just am not interested in a rental until we fix our long term issues.
Trout. Stanton. Players in that neighborhood. Donaldson is fine… After. If we have anything left that they want.
To give you a quick and dirty idea of why WAR value in dollars is exponential, not linear..
27 players with 2 WAR are not worth the same as 9 players with 6 WAR.
There are only 9 places on a lineup card.
The value of a player goes up exponentially very quickly when you get above 3 or so.
Someone like grichuk (1 WAR plus or minus) is barely worth above the league minumum.
Someone like trout or stanton when they get up around that 8 or 10 WAR is worth roughly the same as the yankees or dodgers payroll. The value gets very high very quickly.
As a thought… If pham were in cf he would be in that territory this year. He has been in that neighborhood with trout…. This year anyway…. Despite playing not-center.
Trout WAR 6.2 in baseball reference
6.5 fangraphsPham 6.3 baseball reference
6.0 fangraphsThink about that a second. We do have options because pham could play center.
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