Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Ridiculous? Because the math says he isnt worth 10 million and his replacements starting this year are basically as good as him? Yeah they are young and BARELY worse… But by next year they wont be.
We effectively paid 80+ million for 3 WAR. The day criticizing that is ridiculous is probably 100 years off when the dollar is worth significantly less.
We have two aaa outfield top 100 guys at fowlers position plus arozarena, ja garcia, and others… And you’re worried about pham?
If pham gets hurt we need another all star. We have more than enough people that can fill in for fowler or in center or both.
…and you’re worried about pham? Wha?
Majority salary dump.
The free agent market is weird because they’re saving for next winter. I dont see how that affects everyone.
Even if it does, teams need outfielders. For some teams fowler at say… 12 mil isn’t expensive and they need a guy like that.
And no, we had no business signing him under any circumstances. We’d have been better off sending 10 minor leaguers for trout.
Wasting that many resources is asinine.
Overpaying for a year doesnt bother me.
You could look at players like lance lynn in his sixth year like an overpay.
Heck even two years.
Here is the thing… 2 WAR isnt easy to get. But it isnt hard either. Platoons if nothing else are relatively simple. And shuttling players to and from memphis isn’t difficult.
You could probably get 2 WAR from martinez at first base (voit might as well). You probably would get it from bader/oneill in right in some way shape or form.
Heck, we’ve had two different players give us that semi-randomly at shortstop the last two years.
As the cardinals… We dont have to worry about the lack of depth because we have it.
So as to what other teams should do? Lose more games to us, because we’ve done our job better than them. This is an advantage we should be using more but we aren’t.
…Which is why I criticize.
As smart as they are, they’ve stagnated.
Someone has to say it and point out why.
1. Thats the point I am making. You cant place 27 2-WAR players into a lineup. Thus, a 6 WAR player is not worth three times what a 2 WAR player is worth. He is worth SIGNIFICANTLY more. Not only does he produce 3 times as many more wins, he is also harder to acquire in the extreme.
2. Players don’t exist in a vacuum. Team war is cumulative amongst the players. Individual WAR is for contracts. The balance and interaction between those two is how you build a roster.
When you are negotiating contracts, you are comparing to individuals, not teams. This is also why I say at the higher end, the numbers become stupid (and to a certain extent irrelevant). Does it really matter if a contract is 50 or 100 million outperformed by whichever metric you use? Not really. The guy had a good year and individual games are not won by this type of math. The math on how good a player was in comparison to average at that point doesn’t really matter.
What you want is a lot of guys that are bargains compared to their contract. VALUE. Guys that move the needle for your team.
Superstars. And young players who are above average.
If you waste free agent money (specifically on long term deals) on slightly above average players when you have this thing called a farm system, guess what kind of team you get?
Slightly above average. Which equates to not winning divisions or world series.
This is why I am so vehement that you NEVER sign players like fowler or moustakas or hosmer to a long term deal. There is no value there. They are not good enough and don’t have the talent to outperform their contract.
Fowler did. Which I said.
They’re both gigantic holes in the balance sheet though. Having one be less of a waste of money than the other isn’t an accomplishment.
Pads brought up fangraphs saying fowler was worth 20+ million.
I said their math was faulty as it is based off a linear WAR value model.
Each WAR for their model is worth 8.5 million or whatever the number is this year. So 8.5*2.7 (Fowlers value under their model) is the value they assign him.
I could care less about how they are doing the WAR math. What I care about is how they value him. The math they use is outright wrong.
I illustrated that by pointing out trying to put 27 2- WAR players into a 9 person lineup. Then try it with 9 WAR players.
WAR value is exponential not linear.
I used fangraphs earlier. I use baseball reference all the time. It doesnt matter in so many ways.
All of the individual sites use their own mathematical formula to calculate it. It is one big mathematical opinion.
Like I said, average them all out.
I just use whichever one on the site I am on currently. I used the term generic to say “it doesnt matter”.
Generic WAR… My word for the total WAR value whatever site you are on uses. I could get more specific and anal about my terminology but I really don’t care.
Like I said it doesn’t matter to an extent which one you use… Because of someone is a 5 WAR player on one site he likely is close to that on another.
The math on how they make WAR Values is such a political and nutty thing… You could just average out the WAR values on the sites you prefer and it would be a decent amalgamation and every bit as valid as one site’s mathematical opinion.
Oh and onyx… When I can disprove their math THAT easily? They’re wrong. It isn’t an opinion.
Yes, trout is worth that. He would never get it for the same reason lebron never would. You cant make a full team that way. But what is he worth? His 10-WAR years he was probably “worth” roughly half of the total salary structure in baseball (which is why I say above a certain point the numbers get stupid… And in some ways that matters and in others it doesnt). And his teammates were roughly that much of a negative. He is a perfect example of someone who you see why exponents matter. Put a good team around him and it explodes because he is just that good.
trout as a value he is one of the better ones in the league even at 30 million per year.
Lol… Can of worms… Like I said… Personal style and opinions play a part.
Effectively, for position players or starting pitchers, if you can’t semi-consistently go into the 5-7 WAR range, a free agent will never be worth the money. Exponential value means all the value is at the high end.
If you are paying all the money to mediocre players you are losing value every time.
Relievers are a whole different ball of wax. A 1.5 WAR reliever can be incredibly valuable. So are hitters that say… Crush lefties. Personal styles on how you put together a roster matter.
My “system” pretty much just has a series of rules on “don’t do this”… The rest is situational.
For example… We’ve got an absurd amount of average to slightly above average pitching talent. How you leverage that over the next three years is a matter of your style. Jocketty would have dealt them all away already.
Not cool. The current management has been letting them stagnate… also not cool.Meh… I need to drive to work now 🙂 should have time today but well… Lol
Honestly I mostly just use the generic WAR on contract discussions because it gets my points across.
I hate dealing with the politics of how the numbers are made. Simple works for me.
I quoted fangraphs here because pads likes them. Which WAR you use is mostly irrelevant because they will be relatively close.
The $$ value that fangraphs uses is basically the linear value they get for WAR times the number of WAR the player earns… so like 8.5 million or whatever the number is this year times 2.7 in fowlers case.
It is a blatantly false number as I illustrated very simply.
As for why I dont write fangraphs and/or try to make a name for myself, I dont have the time in my life to do the masters level math involved or write the 100 page paper explaining the system involved in finding a players true value. Also, each year the math will be different so above a certain level (say… 7.5-8 WAR) the numbers get so ridiculous that all you really need to say is “he is worth more than half of individial teams’ payrolls”.
I mean really… So much of it comes down to personal style and valuations (it can’t be all math… Choices are always made and we are human, not robots).
I refuse to deal with the politics and frankly don’t give a damn. Although if you want to get me a job for the cardinals with your contacts probably wouldn’t fight all that hard 🙂
I’m good with “it is exponential” and the quick math I can do in my head. For now anyway it is definitely better than what is out there in the public domain.
To better explain my attitude… I won a world strategy gaming title twenty years ago. I know I’m right and I’ve beaten some really smart people over the years in different realms because I see stuff like this.
*shrugs*
I’ve only said it several times already, but I suppose I need to repeat a very simple proof that WAR value is exponential and not linear.
Go put 27 2-WAR players into a 9 player lineup.
Then go put 9 6-WAR players into the same lineup.
Fowler is not worth his contract or even close. The value for contracts is with superstars and the six years of team control.
As a connection to this thread, hosmer is mediocre and moustakas doesnt qualify.
Paying millions for mediocrity (or worse) only makes your team mediocre (or worse).
I never said they were close. I said the fact that they are so close says bad things about both of them.
Heyward was horrible. Fowler signed for all star money and barely cleared average (and was under 2 WAR in baseball reference… So below average by that metric).
2.7 WAR is nothing. Doesnt even break 10 million in value. Ode to joy, he is so (not) good and all that.
Wait until he moves to a corner and his comparisons get even harder. He’d have been a lot closer to heywards WAR number as a right or left fielder.
I agree that id take fowler with salaries equal…
That doesn’t negate the fact that having the two of them so close in production says bad things about both of them.
Very bad things.
Fyi… Fangraphs WAR for heyward last year was 0.9 (aka worse than grichuk who was playing less).
Fowler was 2.7… Barely above average.
In other words… Neither worth the money or even close.
Wong has the potential to take a major step forward with several factors imo… But in general I agree with the above.
Carpenter should improve. I dont see him hitting that badly two years in a row. Bounceback year to an extent. Martinez should drop off some. Basically a wash at 1b but yes… Cubs win.
Other than that I think you mostly nailed it. The fact that Fowler and heyward are so close in production says volumes about both.
Outside of the bigger talents (darvish imo) we have too many pitchers in aaa to bother with the chaff free agents imo…
As illustrated, that pitching in aa and aaa is ridiculously deep. Some of it will have to be traded.
Uh oh… You may have just unleashed the cardinals2016 monster j/k..
🙂 fun topic really.. Sometimes bucking the math works… It has also been proven if you go straight college you can’t replenish a system either… So yeah… It is a balance and frankly… Luck plays a major factor.
The cards do exactly what they need to do in many ways — replenish the vast majority of positions with cheap starters often and they do that especially on the pitching side which is the more difficult. It also says something that they are doing it from the back of the draft.
You can nitpick due to our inability and/or unwillingness to acquire great talent but that seems to be more of a trading/will issue to me. Our owners are so risk averse they will sit there… And sit there… And sit there…
I just hope when that finally changes they don’t do something too stupid out of frustration similar to what happened with fowler (there was a run on cf so they gave him a contract).
Eh… Thought about the math again.
Half of the contract for a 7 WAR year. Give or take any way. The math changes in any given year.
Point is the value in contracts is in superstars and in the 6 years of team control for new players.
Years to come? Eh… No. We will be a wild card team several times over the next decade with just what we have now.
A true contender? There I agree with you. Nope. Unless we make some real moves anyway.
I agree with length being an issue. Id rather offer machado 5 years at 50 million than 7 at 35 and yes I realize the total numbers are close. Thr thing is… At the high end… WAR value is exponential. In other words one 7 WAR year roughly pays for that ENTIRE contract.
He has had several in that vicinity depending on who you use for WAR stats.
Competition in the central definitely got better in this case. If I take my cardinals glasses off I am glad for brewers fans (used to live outside milwaukee… The fans have had basically nothing to root for and are fairly good fans) but I think this hurts us overall.
Some of their wins are likely coming at our expense.
