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I would also add that pham is a perfect example of a player the other team could control for 2 more years to justify high acquisition costs. For a team like tampa if they want to make deals from their minors that is a major consideration.
Trading for controlled cost players is in vogue and prices are high —
And we have some with value. Pham is just this example. Wacha if you think he is a starter etc.
… Yes.
I think pham is part of a bigger deal. Tampa would probably love lynn and pham as an example of the price was right.
… Had a moment… Bah lol
Have no idea why I was thinking that. I know he’s a bit of a tweener… I think the sierra/mercado situation in springfield was in my mind.
Ah well… Lol
Either way… Still makes sense at least to me that he would be up if we trade pham anyway. What is the difference if it is a few days sooner?
…And yes I think pham is likely gone at this point.
Adding to that: the only of we have with value right now is playing in left tonight… And bader has been playing in left all year.
Also possible bader is the one dealt I suppose…
Makes me seriously think something will happen here. Probably multiple things… And yes injury etc but still…
I like dejong but if he doesnt learn some patience he could end up having a grichuk year or two. Or four.
At ss he can get away with some of that … If he has to move he could end up doing what diaz is this year.
Honestly a huge part of me wants to sell high on him. He has all the hallmarks of the players who have a decent debut then fall off a cliff fast and hard.
If you want an illustration on what I said above about WAR… since I am crap at a lot of math and in this case exponential regressions I will up front say that I am just kinda throwing numbers out there but this will get my point across.
I repeat this math isnt accurate. It just gets my point across.
First WAR : 1 million
Second WAR : 3 million
Third WAR : 9 millionEtc.
This is per year.
Players like mike trout are worth so much more than their contracts that even at 30 million per year they are stupidly cheap. Lebron james is the same way in the nba. Value is exponential at the high end.
Players like Dexter fowler should never be touched with a ten foot pole. Middling players who do not have the talent to exceed value paid.
You have to deal one… Which is why I keep saying we have to deal away before we acquire someone or we not only lose the value of players dealt but the value of the players we have to give away afterwards.
See matt adams for what happens when a player has no place on your team.
Once again… WAR is exponential on value not linear.
A 2 WAR player is not twice as valuable as a 1 WAR they are worth much more.
Hudson has a major beef.
Kelly is too low.
Bader has a major beef.
… And if those guys are way too low what’s that say about the rest?
O’Neill was 21 at aaa for most of the year and still has an .800 ops despite struggles. Outside the top 50 is a joke much less top 100.
This requires base superstars tp build around.
We dont have them. We have a hodgepodge roster.
Idealistically wanting to win at all costs in a down year is how a down year becomes a down decade.
Buying with this current roster is nothing but destructive on so many levels that it crosses the boundary from foolishness into stupidity.
And yes… That includes if the marlins were willing to GIVE us stanton — at least before we clear our roster a bit. If that happens in the wrong order a bunch of other players lose value instantly and you effectively overpay in both talent and money.
Clear the decks a bit and then we can buy.
Bader is roughly a year older. Wisdom is 25.
Seems like what youre saying is “these guys are good too”. Which im good with… Lol… A year is a lot in prospect rankings but the guys we had are pretty darn solid.
Imo…if bader plays center he is probably every bit as good of a prospect simply due to positional differences even if his d is slighly below average. Just gets back to what a few of us have said before about our guys being underrated.
I thought about listing other names we could go after for next year and beyond…
But then I realized I could shorten the list a bit and just say about five or six durham bulls… Go look at the team it is similar to memphis… Young and ridiculously good.
O’Neill will play next year but rookie struggles should be expected. Probably 2019 to expect production there… But he is probably a legit 3-4 bat if he pans out.
I’m guessing they fill the bullpen internally. Reyes will be there for a year for sure and he should upgrade someone even with occasional struggles with control.
Alcantara might fill a hole there too if he continues his run. Weaver, flaherty etc we all know we have some arms that could spend a year doing the wainright path and probably succeed.
I’d honestly bet the guys we go after are ones like gleyber torres. Maybe not him specifically. O’Neill fit that mold and nobody here brought him up. Just looking at it… They will still try to win next year(and should improve) but a true reload is looking like 2019.
If the pitching trade market is as high as the seattle gm is saying then you hope wacha has a great outing today and some team is willing to take a shot.
I have no reason to doubt his statement. So I’d say… Yes…. We would be one of the very few teams with multiple arms to deal in a very high market. I would definitely take a look.
In quite a few other organizations when a 22 year old college pitcher tears up aa to that extent with his stuff — in a hitters park at that — they’d be a top 50 prospect.
He is a cardinal so he will be lucky to break top 100.
Too cynical? Lol
Seattle is like us… In no man’s land. They’re making a play for the wild card. They have decent odds too.
Better odds than we have at the division probably.
O’Neill has no place there long term. Gonzales can pitch now and spot start as necessary … For several years. It is a lot better value for them than getting a guy who walks at year end.
Nobody on our board or who follows our guys doubts gonzales will get people out in short bursts. For good reason. He’s got the stuff and has been ready for years outside of the injury.
Dealing for a veteran reliever with his production level might have cost twice as much.
That is why the guy in seattle was smart. That is also why our gm should be selling hardcore if he gets solid offers like this. Long term we most likely win big.
The trade market is just high right now.
Would I have done the trade? Absolutely. Please more.
I just think it is shortsighted to call us the winner outright. I like that one gm looked outside the box a bit and called us for middle relievers because we have some under control for a few years that are decent to good.
I like it even more that we not only called back but we made a deal with our excess. I mean … What a concept right? Deal from strength to fill a weakness.
We got the higher ceiling player… But stuff happens. It is another lottery ticket. And a good one.
catch is… You cant do just one trade like this … More prospects mitigates risk. So I dont think we are done.
You might lose an individual trade. You win in this case by getting enough pieces to overwhelm the odds of failure. Say O’Neill has a 25% shot of being an all star and 50% odds of playing five years (not a huge stretch in either case)… Get four players like him and your team looks pretty good most likely at some point.
These are trades you have to make in our position. Every time. But sometimes you lose those trades anyway.
