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The guy looking at them close that I am really moving up and higher than anyone else I have seen is Mason Molina. Last year I think I got overly excited about guys like Mautz and Henderson since they had sparking ERAs, but in hindsight the underlying data wasn’t as exciting.
Molina looks a lot more likely to me to be able to make that transition to the bigs. He is consistently putting up swinging strike rates of over 15% in his seasons so far which is 2-3% higher than Henderson or Mautz every did at their best of any level. He has improved his first strike % a good amount this year and his walk rate has been an acceptable amount. A pitchers first strike % is a very strong indicator of their future BB%.
Honeyman I think will land 40ish for me and maybe a little above it, but not much. The ceiling is lower if he can’t play CF as his bat doesn’t have a lot of power in it to play RF.
By the way, JJ Copper at BA said speaking with front office execs, the AA and lower ball had an “unintentional” change where a ball hit the exact same as last year would travel 8-10% further. For guys like Honeyman, that makes me question even his modest 8 HR total more.
Gassy is now positioned to earn himself his first ML “W”.
He did end up getting it. Wins are a funny stat aren’t they? Congratulations, you blew the lead, you deserve the win not the guy who pitched an excellent game before you blew it.
Reading back 1TD, I know the play you are referring to. That was a heck of a play by Winn earlier to even get to the ball let alone make the throw over
Ha yeah you could. For sure after the top 10 rounds it is mostly minors depth with a random guy developing well every now and again
I didn’t see any mention of it or a roster matrix move, but I did notice Joseph King must have started a rehab assignment in the FCL yesterday. It seems like the last 2 weeks so many of these pitchers out so far all of the year have started a rehab assignment.
Martin was an 18th round pick. The odds were very long and realistically guys at that point are minor league depth
Thank you! It may be a few days. I only got the top 6 guys in maybe 30 minutes of looking into them. I do try to dig up a good amount of info. After the top 6 there seems to be a fairly big drop off.
Understood on that. I also personally don’t want to rank those guys with so much big league experience. A little experience like Gastelum or Mautz I am fine with and putting on my personal list.
I started prepping my list last night and will do so for the next few days and share when I have it.
I am not going to rank Crooks, Jordan, Torres as they either have surpassed eligibility or will soon due to days in the active roster criteria for rookie eligibility
I’m guessing the Molina and Cjintje promotions mean Blewett will not get any more starts going forward. He will likely get the same AAAA role in another pet as teams like having guys like him in case of emergency.
I’m very excited to get to listen in. It may be a few days before I can listen especially to a longer episode, but I am looking forward to it and will gladly take such a detailed discussion on the draft guys
Brian’s matrix has Naughton on the 7 day IL and he is out for the year. He should be an easy transfer so that leaves 2 potential releases. Palm Beach has a lot of guys I don’t know their injury but I’m guessing they will find at least 1 or 2 of them to move from the 7 day to 60 day IL. Brian may have a better idea if some of those guys are expected to be out all year.
27 said
I thought someone mentioned maximum roster spaces. With these cuts, would that account for the possibility of adding the 23 players just drafted? I’m Assuming there are more cuts coming. Now that I think about it, some players won’t be activated until next year.
Yes 165 domestic minor Leaguers that are not on the 40 man. Players also on the Full Season Injured List (FSIL) or the minors 60 day IL also do not count against the limit. I am taking from the Roster Matrix and calculating based off those rules.
Memphis – 37
Springfield – 33
Peoria – 32
Palm Beach – 35
FCL – 3040 man in minors – 14
Minors 60 Day IL – 10
FSIL – 3That gives a total of 140 players and leaves 25 spots for 23 draftees, although 1 (Ritchie) won’t sign. Baseball America has the Cardinals with 3 undrafted FA signings (Tristan Bisesetta, JR Fordham, John Lemm). That brings the incoming player count to 25 which takes all 165 spots up.
Although note that Henderson, Robberse, and Clarke are actively on rehab (thus still on 60 day IL) and when they return, they will need a spot. They can either transfer some guys on the 7 day IL to the 60 day IL, or they will have to release 3 players.
Baez isn’t ready so I don’t think there is a need to move Nootbaar. I know some have clamored for Baez to get a call up since he is hitting HRs but he needs to work in swing decisions still.
I also personally like watching Nootbaar play when he is healthy as he is an entertaining player.
Thanks for digging that up LA. Sounds like from your quote he should have been fired a long time ago.
My hope is they trade May, Romero, and Stanek. Get what they can for them and also it frees up roster spots to let younger pitchers get more opportunities to develop. I suppose if Urias can be traded they should to avoid having to demote a younger guy when he comes backs.
I wouldn’t trade Nootbaar at the deadline unless someone overwhelms me. I would instead try to let him build up more value the rest of the year and consider trading him in the off-season.
I believe I saw a Redbird Rants article title that said they were brothers but maybe since corrected.
Willie said
They did get some decent guys vut when ypur draft includes guys not ranked in top 500, that has to take away from your draft regardless of why you took them.
I wouldn’t really look at the BA and MLB draft board and consider them a true measure of talent especially the further down the board you go. Neither employs a full scouting org to come close to even getting fully accurate assessments of players. The talent also drops off massively after a certain point and the difference of #200 and #500 is a minor delta of opinion on what you favor on a guy.
Teams are drafting based off much more info available on assessments, but also on where guys will realistically go. They have a large amount of intel and a team isn’t going to draft a guy in round 7 for example if he would be available in round 15 aside from maybe a case of saving money. But teams generally have an idea of ballpark round range on guys and the Cards wouldn’t have drafted that guy if at least one other team didn’t have a similar round eval in them.
Teams also have development staffs that are evaluating these players. Their development staff will help provide input on who to draft on what they think they can do to improve that player. Even first round guys have things to improve, but especially as you go further into the draft guys have a lot more weaknesses. At that point it becomes what does our org think they can do to maximize the odds of this guy being successful.
The Texas League is a very hitter favored league and Cjintje’s ERA and FIP as bad as they look were league average.
There will likely be a flurry of promotions the next 2 or so weeks as the draft guys sign and people need to be moved up to make room on the lower levels. I assume there will be releases as well since the domestic minors can only have 165 guys at once.
Willie, it is spend it or lose it. Teams are permitted to go up to 5% over their pool amount without penalty and most teams get right there. Last year the Cards left something like 4.5% on the table which I hope is not the case again this year.
Looking forward to digging in Brian. Like Willie said, great job. I’m sure the draft is very exciting and very hard work for you. You dig up some great info when it is hard to come by for the non top guys.