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The guy looking at them close that I am really moving up and higher than anyone else I have seen is Mason Molina. Last year I think I got overly excited about guys like Mautz and Henderson since they had sparking ERAs, but in hindsight the underlying data wasn’t as exciting.
Molina looks a lot more likely to me to be able to make that transition to the bigs. He is consistently putting up swinging strike rates of over 15% in his seasons so far which is 2-3% higher than Henderson or Mautz every did at their best of any level. He has improved his first strike % a good amount this year and his walk rate has been an acceptable amount. A pitchers first strike % is a very strong indicator of their future BB%.
a ball hit the exact same as last year would travel 8-10% further. For guys like Honeyman, that makes me question even his modest 8 HR total more
I guess it would be interesting to know if HR totals are running ahead of last year in the affected leagues. I assume exit velocities would be higher as well.
Exit velocities are the same. For the 8-10% increase in distance, the comparison point was a ball hit with the same angle and exit velocity. But HR totals are up. Linking to BA as they did the research earlier this year.
Here is my updated list. I feel good not great about it. I started by just putting players into groups and then trying to arrange within those group. Position players for each tier get the advantage in my book due to more realistic odds of them reaching their upside. The individual number isn’t as important as the tier and within a tier the guys could be shifted around.
+------+------------------------+----------+------+ | Rank | Player | Position | Tier | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 1 | Rainiel Rodriguez | C | 1 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 2 | Liam Doyle | LH SP | 2 | | 3 | Quinn Mathews | LH SP | 2 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 4 | Joshua Baez | COF | 3 | | 5 | Yhoiker Fajardo | RH SP | 3 | | 6 | Mason Molina | LH SP | 3 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 7 | Leonardo Bernal | C | 4 | | 8 | Yairo Padilla | SS | 4 | | 9 | Trevor Condon | CF | 4 | | 10 | Jurrangelo Cjintje | RH SP | 4 | | 11 | Tegan Kuhns | RH SP | 4 | | 12 | Tanner Franklin | RH SP | 4 | | 13 | Brandon Clarke | LH SP | 4 | | 14 | Tekoah Roby | RH SP | 4 | | 15 | Cooper Hjerpe | LH SP | 4 | | 16 | Jacob Odle | RH SP | 4 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 17 | Won-Bin Cho | COF | 5 | | 18 | Sebastian Dos Santos | SS | 5 | | 19 | Rocco Maniscalco | SS | 5 | | 20 | Tai Peete | CF | 5 | | 21 | Emmanuel Luna | CF | 5 | | 22 | Jack Gurevitch | 1B | 5 | | 23 | Deniel Ortiz | 3B | 5 | | 24 | Jesus Baez | SS | 5 | | 25 | Braden Davis | LH SP | 5 | | 26 | Chen-Wei Lin | RH SP | 5 | | 27 | Cade Crossland | LH SP | 5 | | 28 | Brycen Mautz | LH SP | 5 | | 29 | Ixan Henderson | LH SP | 5 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 30 | Andrew Williamson | CF | 6 | | 31 | Dee Kennedy | SS | 6 | | 32 | Miguel Hernandez | SS | 6 | | 33 | Ryan Mitchell | CF | 6 | | 34 | Luis Gastelum | RH RP | 6 | | 35 | Xavier Cruz | RH SP | 6 | | 36 | Blake Aita | RH SP | 6 | | 37 | Jack Martinez | RH SP | 6 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+ | 38 | Caden Ferraro | 1B | 7 | | 39 | Travis Honeyman | COF | 7 | | 40 | Jalin Flores | SS | 7 | | 41 | Sebastian Rojas | C | 7 | | 42 | Chase Davis | CF | 7 | | 43 | Ian Petrutz | COF | 7 | | 44 | Dawson Montesa | RH SP | 7 | | 45 | Andrew Dutkanych | RH SP | 7 | | 46 | Cade Winquest | RH RP | 7 | | 47 | Cal Randall | RH RP | 7 | | 48 | Hancel Rincon | RH RP | 7 | | 49 | Max Rajcic | RH RP | 7 | | 50 | Mason Burns | RH RP | 7 | | 51 | Austin Love | RH RP | 7 | +------+------------------------+----------+------+Rainiel is a tier above every one else for me. The combo of great power and a good hit tool with a chance to stick at C makes him a likely above average regular down the line.
Tier 2 I see Doyle and Mathews as being big league SP most likely and 3-4 types as a likely outcome but odds of being better than that.
Tier 3 is where I likely vary. Baez the more I dig in, the more concerned I get as he struggles much more against breaking and offspeed pitches and I fear MLB pitchers will exploit him and he needs to address it otherwise he may be Gorman 2.0. Fajardo and Molina are missing bats at a very high rate and both (particulary Fajardo) have good command.
Tier 4 on the hitting side has two guys with great bat control that can play up the middle positions in Padilla and Condon. If Padilla were in this draft, based off his hitting tool, athleticism, and projectable frame would be a top 10ish pick. I think people who like a good hitting tool will really grow to like Padilla and Condon. For pitchers, it is a grab bag of guys with the change to be impact SP, but each with some high risk whether staying healthy or developing more consistent offspeed pitches.
Tier 5 for hitters are guys with every day starter upside, but each player has a pretty major flaw at the moment that needs to be improve. Most of them it is hit tool as they all in this group have good power upside. The pitchers I have Mautz and Henderson much lower than other people, but the data just shows they don’t miss bats that much and I think both can contribute at the MLB level, but more as #4/#5 type upside with likely pen futures.
Tier 6 I have some of the college draftees as I just don’t know as much and would rank them simlarly to Hernandez (has good upside) and Mitchell as all these guys seem to need to prove themselves going forard. The pitchers are some guys I like some of the traits they have and could see them being back end bullpen types.
Tier 7 are hitters with more chance of being role players rather than being MLB starters. The pitchers are in 2 sub groups with Montesa and Dutkanych having SP upside, but with what I would label extreme risk. The remaining guys are all RP who many of these will likely get a chance to pitch in a big league pen and provide some middle relief value. I actually went to 51 as Love is the bottom of that tier for me, but he does have some stuff to work with to pitch in the bigs as a middle relief guy.
A comparison of @stlcard25’s and my list
I had them higher
– Brandon Clarke: +18
– Yairo Padilla: +18
– Emmanuel Luna: +17
– Jacob Odle: +14
– Tekoah Roby: +10stlcard25 had them higher
– Brycen Mautz: +12
– Jesus Baez: +12
– Chen-Wei Lin: +9
– Ryan Mitchell: +8
– Won-Bin Cho: +6Players stlCard25 ranked but I didn’t (* means I have them graduated / graduating soon)
– *Jimmy Crooks (#6)
– *Blaze Jordan (#20)
– Ty Van Dyke (#34)
– Tink Hence (#35)
– Pete Hansen (#36)
– Payton Graham (#44)Players I ranked stlCard25 didn’t
– Blake Aita (#36)
– Jack Martinez (#37)
– Jalin Flores (#40)
– Sebastian Rojas (#41)
– Ian Petrutz (#43)
– Andrew Dutkanych (#45)
– Max Rajcic (#49)
– Austin Love (#51)I took a shot at my post-draft Top 50. I mostly focus on the four full season affiliates and the top recent draftees.
1. Rainiel Rodriguez
2. Quinn Mathews
3. Joshua Baez
4. Leo Bernal
5. Liam Doyle
6. Jurrangelo Cjntje
7. Mason Molina
8. Brycen Mautz
9. Tanner Franklin
10. Trevor Condon11. Yhoiker Fajardo
12. Jesus Baez
13. Won-Bin Cho
14. Jacob Odle
15. Ty Van Dyke
16. Brandon Clarke
17. Ixan Henderson
18. Tre Richardson
19. Jack Gurevitch
20. Tai Peete21. Tegan Kuhns
22. Sammy Hernandez
23. Luis Gastelum
24. Max Rajcic
25. Hancel Rincon
26. Cooper Hjerpe
27. Blaze Jordan
28. Pete Hansen
29. Ryan Campos
30. Rocco Maniscalo31. Tink Hence
32. Tekoah Roby
33. Blake Aita
34. Braden Davis
35. Chen-Wei Lin
36. Deniel Ortiz
37. Chase Davis
38. Travis Honeyman
39. Dawson MOntesa
40. Brayden Smith41. Ryan Mitchell
42. Andrew Williamson
43. Yairo Padilla
44. Jalin Flores
45. Jose Suarez
46. Josh Kross
47. Caden Ferraro
48. Cade Crossland
49. Dee Kennedy
50. Cal RandallHM Jack Martinez
HM Ryan Weingartner
HM Yordalin Pena
HM Nelfy Ynfante
HM Cade McGee
HM Brandt Thompson
HM Michael DattaloSammy’s stats have been very impressive. Of course he will have to navigate through the gauntlent of other catchers in the organization.
I probably have Doyle ranked lower than most people do. I still like him but he hasn’t had a great year. He is still dealing with a lack of fastball command and trying to identify his best offspead pitch. He also was rushed to AA and shouldn’t have been. I expect him to have a better year in 2027.
Ok. I will play. You will notice a few huge differences in some guys I either like much better than others and at least 2 that I don’t. I didn’t list any current mlb roster guys other than Rajcic because they all should be about out of rookie eligibility.
Raniel Rodriguez
Matthews
Franklin
Josh Baez
Fajardo
Doyle
Bernal
Hjerpe
Cijntje
CondonKuhns
Gurevitch
Peete
Jesus Baez
Maniscalso
Molina
Mautz
Henderson
Roby
MitchellGastellum
Dos Santos
Aita
Ferraro
Kennedy
Padilla
Brayden Davis
C Davis
Lin
Deniel OrtizMiguel Hernandez
Randall
Cho
Williamson
Dohm
Odle
Graham
Winquest
Rincon
J FloresPena
Clarke
Prieto
E Luna
Brandt Thompson
Campos
Ledbetter
Richardson
Rajcic
HoneymanI took the 4 rankers so far (stlcard24, me, gscottar, jnevel) and then assigned 50 points for a 1st ranking, 49 for 2nd, and so on and the tallied up the results so far on the weighted ranking from TCN posters.
Since I am adding up and 2 of us didn’t rank the graduated on service time by now guys in Crooks, Jordan, Torres, I have not considered them on the following rankings. I have this in an excel sheet so if other people want to put their top 50, I should be able to give a new resulting output.
+------+---------------------------+--------+ | Rank | Player | Points | +------+---------------------------+--------+ | 1 | Rainiel Rodriguez | 200 | | 2 | Quinn Mathews | 193 | | 3 | Joshua Baez | 190 | | 4 | Liam Doyle | 189 | | 5 | Leonardo Bernal | 181 | | 6 | Yhoiker Fajardo | 174 | | 7 | Jurrangelo Cjintje | 172 | | 7 | Tanner Franklin | 172 | | 9 | Trevor Condon | 165 | | 10 | Mason Molina | 161 | +------+---------------------------+--------+ | 11 | Tegan Kuhns | 148 | | 12 | Jesus Baez | 142 | | 13 | Tai Peete | 136 | | 14 | Brycen Mautz | 135 | | 15 | Jack Gurevitch | 133 | | 16 | Cooper Hjerpe | 132 | | 17 | Won-Bin Cho | 130 | | 18 | Ixan Henderson | 118 | | 19 | Tekoah Roby | 115 | | 20 | Rocco Maniscalco | 113 | +------+---------------------------+--------+ | 21 | Jacob Odle | 108 | | 22 | Brandon Clarke | 102 | | 23 | Yairo Padilla | 101 | | 24 | Braden Davis | 99 | | 25 | Chen-Wei Lin | 97 | | 26 | Deniel Ortiz | 94 | | 27 | Luis Gastelum | 86 | | 28 | Ryan Mitchell | 85 | | 29 | Sebastian Dos Santos | 80 | | 30 | Dee Kennedy | 71 | +------+---------------------------+--------+ | 31 | Andrew Williamson | 69 | | 32 | Blake Aita | 61 | | 33 | Caden Ferraro | 58 | | 34 | Ty Van Dyke | 53 | | 35 | Emmanuel Luna | 50 | | 35 | Hancel Rincon | 50 | | 37 | Chase Davis | 46 | | 38 | Miguel Hernandez | 41 | | 39 | Pete Hansen | 38 | | 40 | Tink Hence | 36 | +------+---------------------------+--------+ | 40 | Tre Richardson | 36 | | 42 | Travis Honeyman | 31 | | 42 | Max Rajcic | 31 | | 44 | Cade Crossland | 30 | | 45 | Jalin Flores | 29 | | 45 | Dawson Montesa | 29 | | 45 | Sammy Hernandez | 29 | | 48 | Xavier Cruz | 28 | | 49 | Ryan Campos | 27 | | 50 | Cal Randall | 25 | +------+---------------------------+--------+ | 51 | Cade Winquest | 22 | | 52 | Payton Graham | 21 | | 53 | Ian Petrutz | 16 | | 53 | Nate Dohm | 16 | | 55 | Jack Martinez | 14 | | 56 | Yordalin Pena | 11 | | 56 | Brayden Smith | 11 | | 58 | Sebastian Rojas | 10 | | 59 | Cesar Prieto | 9 | | 60 | Mason Burns | 7 | +------+---------------------------+--------+ | 61 | Andrew Dutkanych | 6 | | 61 | Brandt Thompson | 6 | | 63 | Jose Suarez | 5 | | 64 | Colton Ledbetter | 4 | +------+---------------------------+--------+I really like both of these rankings. But I was wandering who was going to be pushed out of the top 20. Looks like it was Brandon Clarke. Rocco Maniscalco and Tai Peete to name just two seems to have done it.
I’m mot disputing anything. Just having fun with this.
Thanks. After this last draft I think it’s going to be real tough for Brian and Kyle to stop at the top 50. The rankings might have to go to the top 60, plus sleepers and hidden gems.
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