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I really would love to read how Archer is so bad….honestly no spite or hate
a nice walk through about how he is not worth his contract and how his performance is terrible
especially when equated to other Cardinals starters or prospects
i have yet to see that yet i hear over and over how he is a bad investment and not worth consideration or discussion
The closest thing i have read is a high ERA and low win count….which is hard to even consider given both of those stats are some of the worst calculators for determining the value of a starting pitcher
Leone is terrible because last year doesnt count… Norris too…same for Gregerson…
but Pham is fine…Ozuna is perfect…DeJong cant possibly get worse…
Morrow is so much better than Gregerson
Heyward had an “off” year…so did Russell, and Schwarber and Zobrist…and Baez cant possibly return to the strikeout king nor will Contreras’ batting come down to Earth…and DArvish’s post season was a fluke…
blah blah blah… people can find stats to justify or validate their bias…it’s a part of baseball and it’s boring… someone says this projection someone says but that projection and someone says last year someones say no TWO years ago…
blah blah blah blah
you dont like the moves the team made fine…but arguing they are bad or arguing they are good is equally fruitless and has almost a zero chance of convincing people who have their bias in opposition to your own bias
i understand all the moves the Cardinals made…i woudlnt have done some of them…but that makes me happy as my job isnt being a GM…but just because they aren’t what i would do doesnt make them wrong or not based on good decisions or stats or whatever..
you want to argue about whatever go for it…but if your point is to convince someone to change assaulting them with stats and figures that they can equally biasly attack with stats and figures is pretty pointless
it’s probably better to try to find a way to understand the other side and FIRST consider that maybe they are right instead of seeing them as wrong first and trying to destroy them…especially in instances like board posting where there is no right…if you can’t accept that you might be wrong and someone else right then you are just a narcissist…and that’s fine i guess if you want to be that…but if that makes you feel defensive then you probably dont like it and that’s probably because you know it is a little tru
i am not talking about any one person or person posting..in fact i am sure i participate poorly as well…but bickering back and forth just sounds more and more like “nuh uh” repeatedly ad nauseum
exactly GScott…if you don’t like to talk about ideas whether potentially happening or not then you shouldnt be in this thread and if you are you should ESPECIALLY not be talking and trying to HALT conversation like Nate does
There is still plennty of time for moves to be made if desired
If anyone thinks that we woudlnt move on MOose or Lynn or Cobb or Holland for one year or two year deals (or longer but cheaper deals) they are crazy…it probably wont happen in fact if i had to gamble (which i dont) i would bet against it…but the simple fact that the possibility is still out there means it can happen and thus WORTH talking about
heck it is worth talking about even if it is FOR SURE not going to happen
dont like the conversation that is fine…disagree with it sure… but actively try to HALT the conversation is extremely mean spirited and out of line
this year IS different however…and the Cardinals are probably done… but this year is undeniably different with the FAs still out there o any prognostications for how the rest of the offseason will go seems utterly pointless
most teams SHOULD BE done at this point…but we have major players out there who obviously are changing the landscape for what will happen
Lynn, Cobb , MArtinez, Holland, Moose…once they are all settled only then will i consider the potential for any team being “done” including the Cardinals
i forgot about that Gomber start! still fun honor for whomever gets it. I remember i was at the one Hawksworth got a while back.
btw…where is Hawksworth it was so unfortunate to see him get hurt with the Dodgers after showing pretty well with them…always liked that guy
this spot usually goes to the next guy up if my memory serves…well deserved Flaherty…Reyes would have been fun but with his recovery it’s best not to push anythign with him
interesting…all seems in line with general discussions…and IMO should reduce the time a bit
my issues is still with the consequences…fines won’t do anything to stop people from not abiding…balls and strikes and even outs or disqualifications will however
the threat of the pitch clock also isnt enough to make batters get into batter boxes earlier or whatever…if there isnt an equal punishment for the offensive side it seems rather unbalanced to see the punishment only effect one side
Gscott
I’m not really in on Span..but i’d take him if it meant getting Colome and Archer
however i would exchange Hechavarria (and his 4.5mil plus arb money) for Span as HEchavarria would better suit our needs for a real SS somewhere on our club…though i’d consider taking them both if we could bring down the trade package…maybe keeping Kelly? or Hicks at least?
we can slide Span into the backup outfielder role and let Bader Garcia and Oneill play every day in Memphis
Hechavarria takes the extra bench spot early in the season…and maybe we work a trade of GGarcia as we have plenty of other capable guys with similar skill setsit is very far from emptying the farm by the way Blackhills….. also what do you need the farm exactly for if you snag Archer and Colome and Span and Hech let’s say
-FLaherty’s need is replaced by Waino/Mikolas AND Archer AND Hudson… no real loss there to depth
-Kelly is replaced by Knizner…and Martinez and Ortega long term… short term we find a vet catcher to sit around on the bench
-Tuivalala is replaced by Colome…and Hicks is replaced by about 10 others who are high upside)
-Wisdom (though i might offer them Garcia instead) is replaced by HEchavarria and Munoz and a bunch of others in the system who are fringe
– Span can sit around on the bench as 4th OF and a little speed…instead of BAder sitting around…and Hechavarria can be a legitimate backup SS who coudl start if DeJong goes sophomore slump on us…we have no real depth at SS…a veteran GG level glvoe would make us all feel bit more at easeat the end of the day we would snag 2 AS a gold glove SS and an aging 4th OFer…and take on some money while losing nothign that isnt replaceable from within our system outside of a veteran backup catcher though i am sure we coudl use Francisco Pena or BAron as the backup and not lose much out of what Kelly will give us due to the limited playing time
it’s super late to do anything like this…but so what…it improves the team in every way we are concerned about outside of another power bat…which i would argue we dont really NEED we just want because we THINK last year our offense was worse than it was
No risk. Minor league signing. Last year want even all that bad.
If you are mad about this you should check your bias
With an 8man bullpen I just dont see how you make it work
Kelly
Garcia
JMartAll seem locked in no matter what
The extra player seems down to Bader or maybe O’Neil depending what way they go
You could argue that Logan would fit if you are willing to play Fowler and Ozuna in CF often but if not we need another cfer
If Garcia was replaced with a guy like Chris Owings who could hold down Backup CF and backup SS I could see it
And as was said Logan coming means someone going from the 40man. Mayers or Valera seem to be the guys up next but both seem to have the eye of the front office with recent play in winter for Mayers and The Valera comment a by Moz
IMO Bader has to lose the last byear much spot. Now I think for the first game and week where we have an extra bench player that spot might be up for competition. With Valera the inside guy it seems now. Though Voit and O’Neill probably have a shot too.
Logan makes a lot of sense but since he doesn’t play outfield anymore his lack of versatility makes him tough to slot into a 4 man bench
career ERAs? why does that matter? that is a cherry picked stat to justify your thoughts…who cares about career numbers let alone career ERA esepcially when two main candidates were starters most of their careers
Leone last year was one of the best non closers out there
Gregerson had a down year but has a history of being reliable…he just isnt Wade Davis or who? Holland who had one good half last year? who else did you want? Morrow? with his whole 1 yr of credibility? he wasnt my first choice for closer either but he isnt worthless
Norris was pretty good in the first half last year and isnt being aksed to be a closer probably the swing man to allow Lyons to have more work at the back end IMO
Tuivalala seems to have a lot more upside than Soco
Cecil after his horrid start wasnt that bad…btu because his early was so bad his yearly numbers look poor…but that doesnt matter when you are bias based on those early performances…like almoost everyone is…which is understandable but not really accurate
LYons and BRebbia were solid to outstanding last year but were limited by the immovable options ahead of them who were jettisoned…
Bowman got ridden hard but with more options this year he should be able to slide into less innings and stay sharperTyler wasnt even the closer for us last year in any real capacity…and he and Bowman got used in odd spots because they were the only ones that were pitching well… Lyons isnt our closer now…Gregerson i think is only in name right now as all we hear is “competiticion” when they talk about roles with the bullpen…I think someone will step up and take it with their play and we have several encouraging options
you dont care about the guys who are gone but then say that the guys who replaced them arent any better…yet each one of them WAS better last year…the inconsistencies of the early bullpen last year is why everyone thinks the bullpen was terrible…Socolovich, Brox, ROsy, Oh ,Siegrest…they all struggled mightily and cost us several games…
as for question marks…every team has question marks…every team…I can walk through all of the cubs’ just as easy as the Cardinals ones… wishin and hoping is what every team does at the beginning of the season
I am optimistic because I choose to see my doubts of my own team as potential doubts of other teams…if i am willing to believe that Mikolas doesnt work…then i have to believe that Chatwood wont work…if Carp doesnt return to form…then neither does Russell or Schwarber… if DeJOng or Pham is a one hit wonder then so could Contreras and Baez be…if Gregerson isnt a good closer then i remember Morrow has never closed ever…if i am worried about Ozuna repeating then why cant Rizzo or Bryant have a down year too?
I woudl prefer a bit more certainty in the rotation and very back end…but i see the potential at each spot…and i see the internal fixes….they arent splashy but they make sense
the Cubs are now at point where they buy their fixes…the Cardinals for the most part develop themThe Cubs are hoping on return to form for guys who were down…plus key FA signings working out…there is no guarantee Darvish returns to form…
If i am willing to be pessimistic about my team then i have to be for other teams… which at the end of the day makes me optimistic asi see our depth in our farm as being the thing we are counting on going into the season…and for the most part the Cardinals produce pretty impressive pitchers…we didnt have an Ozuna impact anywhere so we traded for it…
should the Cubs hopes and what ifs not go well they have little to fix it internally and now they have little money too..if they want to stay under the cap
the Cardinals have youngsters ready, youngsters farther down for trading, and money should they need to go to it to make changes…
Would i have preferred to go a different route to solve the issues we had last year? yes i woudl have and still would… but i am not narcissistic enough to deny that the moves they have made arent making the team better just because they arent what i woudl do
I am still hoping to get down there towards the end of ST…i had a bit of an emergency otherwise i was going to go early as my favorite thing are the practices
i never said they werent better…i said the gap is pretty arbitrary and pretty subjective
just because the Cubs hopeful to come back and play better players are household names doesnt put them in any different situation than nay other teams players who were bad last year that hope to be better…Schwarber was healthy and not good..russell ws hurt then healthy and not good…Zobrist was not very good…
I personally dont think Darvish is that much better than Arrieta last year…i think it says more about their opinion of Arrieta going downhill than it is that Darvish is so much better…they are just hoping he is because they lost their confidence in Arrieta…
Davis saved their butts last year a lot…so did Uehara…
The Cubs get all this super credit for Morrow how has no experience at closer or really relieving outside of last year (where he WASNT the guy)…yet the Cardinals actually bring in a guy with relieving and closing experience and they get attacked for doing nothing…I’d have preferred to take a chance on MOrrow too…but the situations arent the same…
Russell, Schwarber, Heyward, Almora, Zobrist…even Baez, Contreras are all question marks for performance being similar or different than last year…
will they all fail to get better? no…but the more ?’s you have the more likely there will be issues…
Lester is a year older but no one seems to care…Darvish had a relatively healthy 2017 but 2016 had issues after TJ…and his performance in the offseason was not very good to be nice…i dont care if the excuse of “tipping pitches” is said 100 times…
All I see with the Cubs is basically the same team they rolled out last year which is thin in quality depth and very dependent on not having key players be injured…which they have been pretty lucky to have seen succeed…. i think their bullpen is worse as of today as Davis was extremely important to their success last year…
The Cardinals upgraded their bullpen and their offense…and while their rotation as of today is worse (until we see what we get from Waino and Mikolas)….they have far better options to replace them with their depth than the Cubs do…
the depth in the minors for the rotation and the bullpen is potentially overwhelming…outside a loss of Ozuna’s potential offensive upgrade and no solid SS backup we can even replace most of the position players with similar level players that have upside on top
So to me I see the Cubs as similar to last team if not a hair worse…and the Cardinals team LAST year was right there with them in the last weeks (we were tied for first late in the year)…the CArdinals are better right now overall than they were last year and fixed most of their issues…
IMO I am uneasy because the one area we have question marks for is one of the most important…and i dont have the same confidence in FLaherty and Reyes and Hudson to be impactful enough to replace a bad Waino and/or a bad Mikolas…not to mention the assumption of Weaver being solid…I feel better when i have 3 solid SPs…not 2…(and i am including Wacha/Weaver as 1 to pair with Carlos as i see only one of them being terrible not both)…
which is why i clamor for Archer…because i want that surety of a high end SP more than i want the surety of a higher upside backup catcher like Kelly and the HOPE of FLaherty…
I prefer a team with Archer and a veteran backup catcher like Rivera over a team with Kelly and Flaherty in key spots…not because Flaherty and KElly dont have real potential to be good but because they have no track record to help right now…Archer does…even if he woudl fail miserably…he woudl still give more confidence at this point…
I want nothing more than Flaherty to be a star and shoudl we lose Mikolas or Waino he steps in and blazes a trail…but i’d prefer Archer now over the hope for later
they dont go with a 7 man bullpen so that is out the door already they go 8 (except potentially super early in the season)
and in that list..how can you say Gregerson isnt better than Oh? and that Leone isnt better than a hurt and not an option for anyone Rosy
the bullpen wasnt terrible last year as someone else said…however the parts that were bad were released and replaced with better ones…are they replaced with Kenley Jansens …no but upgrades are upgrades…not to mention having kids ready to come up
also our bullpen really killed us a lot EARLY in the season IMO…because we kept goign to Oh when he didnt have anything and then it was a free for all to figure out how to fix it…
On top of that the whole early bullpen was stuck because it had no movement built in for callng up replacements…everyone including Rosy struggled early except Bowman and LYons who were leaned on more and more…Bowman a lot early until it caught up with him and he plateaud..and then eventually they went with Lyons…
Socolovich, Cecil, Rosy, Oh, Broxton, Siegriest….all were very poor early on in the season last year…Cecil and Rosy eventually righted themselves somewhat but Rosy left to injury… all the others arent around anymore
Only Bowman ,Cecil, and Lyons remain from opening day last year…and all the new guys are upgrades on who they replace (the degree is arguable)
Bowman without being ridden so hard should be better than last year
Cecil should be better
Lyons even if he isnt AS lights out isnt bad
Leone
Norris
Gregerson
Tuivalala
Brebbiawith Reyes, Hicks, Helsley, Gant, Wick, Sherriff, Flaherty, Hudson, all there to help
and Lyons has no reason to get worse…he has been a high quality pitcher in whatever role has been thrown at him his whole MLB career…there is far more evidence with his play that he will stay doing well than there is that he will regress…
It seems everyone is clamoring for Holland yet his last year was a tale of a good first half and so so to poor second half…and he wants a ton more money
and if we signed Holland people would be so happy and not even talking about his poor second half saying it was a fluke or whatever…but with a signing no one is looking for they use the bad second half and injury argument to attack the move
NOrris is a solid depth vet signing…i agree the price is a little high, but it’s only this year, and as i said somewhere else he might be an attractive trade piece at the deadline should our youngsters like Hicks and Helsley and Reyes etc. be knocking the door down for the pen…we might not get much, but for low money and vet status and some closing history he may be a piece another team would like to add for their relief core should we not need him
If the guy was in the same role his whole career i might care BHC…but he isnt…he is at worst a long man spot starter at best a solid vet for the back end
Braden Looper was a terrible starter but was impressive as a vet reliever…you are finding a stat to fit your opinion instead of looking at the context of the whole career…
you think the Cubs signed Morrow to be their closer because of his whole career stats as an oft ijnured starter or as the guy who flashed some brilliance last year in his new role as late inning reliever for the Dodgers
IMO…i think we should have ticked up by about 1 game with the Norris signing…as it replaces a good youngster or fringe reliever from HAVING to succeed at a high level…
agreed Pads…i was thinking the same thing, but you said it better than i could (obviously)
all i would add is that we developed Pujols pretty well out of a low pick…and Yadi has developed pretty darned well too and at the MLB level which rarely happens… I think Bryant and Rizzo are nice and all but are they HOF hitters? Bryant has a shot i think, Rizzo I dunno…and the cubs didnt really develop him anyways…Bryant’s development too is questionable as he played almost no time in the minors…he was good enough to come right up and play, sure he will get better as he plays in the MLB but what he learned in the minors system didnt get him where he is.
not the amefor Pujols who i think did figure it out as a result of the Cardinals system…same goes for Yadi (and no i am not equating Yadi as a hitter to Pujols…but i am saying Yadi is a HOFer who woudlnt be a HOFer if his bat hadnt developed along the way)
Contreras is a nice find…and BAez’s growth from what he originally showed is worth mentioning, but until i see couple years from those guys at the high levels they show i dont see it as anything more than finding a diamond in the rough…which all teams do
Wick could be an option too…though he seems to lineup with our needs for backend relief pitching…and while MAyers might get converted to that it seems more of a project…im higher on Wick than Mayers ….and i still like MAyers
i agree Brian about the start date getting mixed up…but i dont think that start date is set in stone i think it was given to make everyone feel ok about Reyes health not as if there was a must have him ready on May 1 deadline
and a signing of Norris could indicate they want to take it very slow with Reyes just to be safe…which might be a good idea
I’d be fine with Reyes out until June 5th or whatever if it meant getting spring training to determine the best option for losing a guy from the 40man..
if we are in such dire straights to need Reyes on May 1 and cant wait until June 5th. A lot more than just one bullpen spot or one rotation spot will be the problem with the club if that is the case
thing is…the Cubs acquisitions outside of maybe chatwood arent much of upgrades…just fillers for open spots…they might have spent a lot of money but that is only because they have no way to fill the spots anyways
Darvish = Arrieta (last three years it might be a downgrade looking at the stats)
Morrow < Davis by a lot…Morrow has never been a closer and barely been a reliever
Chatwood => Lackey …though looking at Chatwoods Coors field play i dunno…its not ALL the field
Smyly <= Montgomery or Butler? (hurt not sure when he would even be relevant)
Cishek <= Uehara …Uehara was pretty impressive the last couple years, Cishek, not so much even if he trends up a bit
Duensing = Duensingso they got a little better at their #5 pitcher, and got worse in their bullpen
Ozuna > Piscotty/Grichuk etc…. by a lot
Mikolas < Lynn (hard to say anything different…but they have more options than just Mik with all the kids)
Gregerson = Oh (and that is being generous to Oh)
Norris > Brox/Siegriest/ hurt Rosy
Leone > Socolovich/Sherriff/Mayersupgrade to lineup and to bullpen..rotation is a little weaker but with high end prospects like Reyes and Flaherty waiting the 1:1 matchup might not matter)
Cain > Broxton/Brinson/Phillips etc. at least in the short term he is a better all around producer
Yelich >= Santana (Santana was productive it’s just different than Yelich)got their lineup a bit better
the Cubs made big signings because they were forced to do so just to try to patch up what they lost and what they did bring puts them AT BEST as good as they were last year…but potentially worse
Cardinals and Brewers got better without losing anything that really mattered to them (Lynn POTENTIALLY withstanding…but again the plan for mitigating the loss is pretty solid even if i disagree with not bringing in a higher end pitcher)
everyone is acting like the cubs added Darvish to their rotation last year where Arrieta was in it…they didnt they just patched the hole with a similar player
couldnt we put Reyes on the 60day DL returning from TJ? that wouldnt really impact his availability to get ready for the season right? It would all just be rehab. That would give us time to see who should really come off the 40man
Mayers i think slips through the cracks and so does Valera IMO…though i think in need of a 2b man might take a chance on Valera and his contact hitting
Mayers seems like the type of pitcher every team has
Norris as a counter move to Darvish…come on that is ridiculous, even postulating that lowers anyone’s credibility
Solid snag (as long as the price is low), used correctly he can be very effective
adds to our stable of closer-esque options
Greger, Lyons, Norris, Leone, Brebbia, Cecil
also, he seems the type that we could probably move at the deadline if we dont need him because other kids are ready) for a low end prospect
I think Mayers is the guy to get the boot though…makes me wonder if the move will not be finalized until the first day of ST and someone will go on the 60 day DL to create the spot
I think Valera has to be worried too with all the other options at the same position