- This topic has 54 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
@TexasCard – OK – they were 7th in ERA but 26th in allowing inherited runners to score. The true woefulness of the Cardinals bullpen was understated by ERA because when the bullpen allows an inherited runner to score, that runner gets tagged to the starter.
Weighing Inherited RunnersThey were 7th in save %, but 24th in games lost by the bullpen.
I fail to see how they were the 7th best bullpen in the majors.
But I agree, the relievers they acquired this offseason make the team worse. In fact, the free agent relievers the Cardinals acquired over the last two years are the worst on the team. Mo would have made the team better by doing nothing and saving DeWitt’s money and letting the guys in AAA be the relievers.
But, hey, our front office is great and nobody can question them…
I usually bring up the human element in ball players. Just as with a good percentage of people, players have good days and bad days. That goes for ballplayers also since their are human. How much of those feelings are passed on to the manager and coaches, I don’t know. It might be that nothing is relayed at all. We all know that players have some sparkling performances and than follow that up with a disaster. What is that attributed to? These “factors” can’t be seen on analytical sheets, the manager might know something that we don’t realize. No one of us in in the dugout or the bullpen. So the decision to bring in a certain reliever is not always known to us fans. I’m not a fan of lounge chair managers.
I see this happening in golf. One week a player is dead on and wins a tournament and the next week they miss the cut. What determines that? Certainly not statistics. Stats can’t predict that.
In statistics, there is random variation. That is why the size of the error term matters. That is why it is laughable that a whole industry has sprung up around the publication of stats like WAR when 90% of the players have an error term bigger than their measured WAR.
But is relying on statistics better than pure guesswork? Yes
And chances are a golfing professional who misses the cut at a major tournament is still better at golf than every single one of us that read this board and would probably beat us 999 times out of 1,000, even if we all teamed up and played best ball.
Leone is terrible because last year doesnt count… Norris too…same for Gregerson…
but Pham is fine…Ozuna is perfect…DeJong cant possibly get worse…
Morrow is so much better than Gregerson
Heyward had an “off” year…so did Russell, and Schwarber and Zobrist…and Baez cant possibly return to the strikeout king nor will Contreras’ batting come down to Earth…and DArvish’s post season was a fluke…
blah blah blah… people can find stats to justify or validate their bias…it’s a part of baseball and it’s boring… someone says this projection someone says but that projection and someone says last year someones say no TWO years ago…
blah blah blah blah
you dont like the moves the team made fine…but arguing they are bad or arguing they are good is equally fruitless and has almost a zero chance of convincing people who have their bias in opposition to your own bias
i understand all the moves the Cardinals made…i woudlnt have done some of them…but that makes me happy as my job isnt being a GM…but just because they aren’t what i would do doesnt make them wrong or not based on good decisions or stats or whatever..
you want to argue about whatever go for it…but if your point is to convince someone to change assaulting them with stats and figures that they can equally biasly attack with stats and figures is pretty pointless
it’s probably better to try to find a way to understand the other side and FIRST consider that maybe they are right instead of seeing them as wrong first and trying to destroy them…especially in instances like board posting where there is no right…if you can’t accept that you might be wrong and someone else right then you are just a narcissist…and that’s fine i guess if you want to be that…but if that makes you feel defensive then you probably dont like it and that’s probably because you know it is a little tru
i am not talking about any one person or person posting..in fact i am sure i participate poorly as well…but bickering back and forth just sounds more and more like “nuh uh” repeatedly ad nauseum
Jager…
I don’t agree with you on most of your trade and free agent signing ideas, but you are SPOT ON with this post.
I think our inherited runner situation will improve substantially.
I liked our frontend of the bullpen coming out of the gate last year even though all four of them either failed or got injured ~ Siegrist, Rosenthal, Cecil, and Oh. That was the “in the lead” team and Bowman was likely part of that. Socolovich and Broxton rounded out the bullpen and those were the two I was not happy with.
That is a really poor group of pitchers looking back.
I’m much more pleased with this years’ group of pitchers. Cecil, Bowman, and Tuivailala are now basically covering the backend of the bullpen while Leone, Lyons, Gregerson, and Norris should be the “frontend”. Norris, Bowman, and a rejuvenated Cecil will likely far outperform our 5th-6th-7th inning guys from last season. Brebbia likely joins them in mid-April.
Remember, too, that guys like Gant, Sherriff, Mayers, and Lucas all received decent exposure last year and can be counted on to improve this year as well.
I would still like another MLB addition, but I don’t see it happening. Brebbia can be stashed in AAA for when a need arises imo.
Did you seriously just name drop Mayers? Mayers only appeared in 3 games for 4.2 IP, 8 R (6 ER), 4 BB and 8 H. If anybody should have been DFA’d it should have been him. And I doubt the Padres would have claimed him.
I can’t wait for Mayers to prove you wrong. Go ahead and get riled up, I’ll continue mentioning him. Why do folks discount what Cecil or Norris did as starters, but Mayers isn’t afforded the same luxury?
I know Brebbia looks like the obvious choice to be in Memphis at the start of the season. But, based on what he did last year, he sure doesn’t deserve that. IMO, unless he has a bad ST, he has already earned a spot on the 25-man roster.
Mud, who would you option out instead?
P.S. Missing the parade on Opening Day would stink, but the choices are very limited and barring injury, someone deserving is bound to lose out.
I don’t disagree that Brebbia may be the one who has to stay in Memphis for awhile. All I’m saying is that it doesn’t seem fair at all. This player was such a big help for our bullpen last year. And it was fun that just he came out of nowhere. There is really only one legitimate reason why Brebbia shouldn’t stick right away, and that is if he would have a bad spring. Unfortunately, it looks like he is going to get shafted simply because he has the lowest seniority. Where’s the respect this kid deserves?
If is explained to him like an adult that it is a temporary move that is best for the team, then he is not being disrespected. That is just rhetoric, IMO.
Before he stuck for good, Tuivailala went up and down 15 times. Brebbia came up and never went down – unusual in today’s game. Roster moves are a necessity.
Keep Bowman down for 20+ days and it delays his free agency by a year – not that I think he will have a functioning arm by the time he reaches that point.
Bowman is another of the limited possibilities to be sent down for the first week, but if it is “disrespecting” Brebbia by sending him down after a half-season with St. Louis, what would you call it if Bowman is sent down after two full years straight in the majors, a period during which he was one of the team’s most frequently used relievers?
I would call three weeks when only one is needed blatant service time manipulation, something the Cards have not done before. Frankly, as one of the lowest paid guys on the roster, Bowman isn’t the kind of guy to start doing it on. At least when the Cubs did it, they did it with a huge star in Bryant, saving them potentially millions of dollars.
I saw a blogger article in which he alleges that Maddux has been given complete control of the pitching decisions and what that means to Matheny and the Cardinals. The author frequently uses the word “autonomy” without any modifiers.
Here is a key quote from that blog post.
By all reports Maddux has been given complete control over the pitching aspect of the 2018 St. Louis Cardinals. This includes in-game decisions. While Matheny might be the figurehead to depart the dugout and signal to the pen, Maddux will have been the mind who decided the move.
As sloppy writers who may have an agenda tend to do, this author provided no backup as to what “all reports” are. I sure haven’t seen any.
So I went back and looked for the possible sources. I did find one article. A week ago, Goold wrote about how Maddux is running schedules differently in his first day of camp. Here is the quote from Mo.
“You bring somebody in and you’ve got to give them some autonomy to do what they want to do,” said John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations. “You look at Maddux’s experience and what he’s been through and he definitely had some input. Change can be healthy. Smart leaders listen, and they evolve.”
That could be interpreted as a swipe at Matheny, but the term “some autonomy” is quite vague. It is not the same as “complete control”, and in-game decisions are never mentioned. Mozeliak did not specify camp drills, but that is clearly the context in which Goold presented the quote and likely how he posed the question.
I am pretty sure this is the article that was the basis of the blog post, due to the blogger’s frequent use of the word “autonomy”, though he never says “some autonomy”. Of course, that would significantly weaken his assertions.
Perhaps there are other sources, but I cannot find them. But, let’s assume for a moment that it is true that all pitching decisions have been removed from the manager’s responsibilities. It would have made big news – from the team’s beat writers – and not buried between the lines of a ho-hum story about more efficient training schedules.
Even if there isn’t proof, some people will start quoting this blogger as speaking the gospel. I am not providing the link because I don’t want to give the site more clicks.
P.S. I am not pro- or anti-Matheny. I am pro getting the facts straight.
honestly, I wouldn’t even bat an eye if they cut either of them. They are good, but we are talking about the 7th or 8th man in the bullpen. I think both should have to earn their spot at this point. Nothing should be given to them. Tuivailala has much better stuff than either as well and I can see him taking that step forward this year.
There is no chance that Matheny won’t have the final say. Also, I have never been one to question his bullpen usage. Everyone has these rosy images of LaRussa, but there was constant and unending questioning of his maneuvers back when he was manager.
It’s an easy thing to criticize. Manager comes out. The game stops. The pitcher warms up. The hitter steps in. and BAM. A base hit has everyone questioning the decision to use that particular reliever rather than criticizing the actual pitcher who didn’t get the job done. There are only 7-8 pitchers that can be used and everyone also belabors Matheny for over-using certain pitchers.
I don’t know what he’s supposed to do. Either use the good pitchers all the time or get berated for not using them. He’s been blamed for “ruining” Siegrist and Oh of all pitchers, a couple of guys with consistently poor injury histories. Getting anything good out of them was a miracle imo.
Along with Siegrist, Rosenthal and Maness were used very heavily. I wrote about it back in August 2016 as I could see trouble coming.
https://thecardinalnation.com/heavy-workloads-catching-up-with-rosenthal-maness-and-siegrist/
Though Rosenthal may bounce back from TJS, the other two seem used up at ages 28 and 29, respectively.
Also, many attribute Mujica’s downfall to heavy use when he became closer. The year Motte was so successful, he had all 42 of the team’s saves. The next spring, Tommy John. At age 33-34-35, Oh made more appearances in his two years with the Cards than at any time in his career. Now, he has elbow problems.
There are enough data points over time that I can see why some wonder.
IMO, it is also fair to question the front office if you believe the other relievers were not dependable enough to use. As in many things in life, reality may be somewhere in between the two extremes.
He is the manager he is supposed to figure the best way to use the bullpen. Using the same pitchers over and over is not the answer.
Mike Mayers 2016 Game Log:
July 24, 2016
1.1 IP, 8 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 HRSept 6, 2016
1 IP, 0 H, 0 RSept 8, 2016
1 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 HRSept 26, 2016
2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 KCombine the 2016 with the 2017 games and you have a window of a pitcher who is not MLB caliber. He is a prototypical AAAA pitcher – good in AAA but stinks in MLB. I’d rather have kept Wick than Mayers. And you wonder why Mayers isn’t afforded the same luxury? Because even in relief appearances he has stunk.
Pads
That is because he has ruined pithers over and over with his stupid over use of pitchers over and over. He constantly shows he has no clue how to use a pen.
I sure hope Maddux makes all of the pitching decisions. I have also stated previously the last 2 years we needed more bullpen help. The front office largely ignored this. That didn’t help Matheny either, which I have depended on MM to bring in the wrong pitcher at the wrong time.
Going back to the blogger article Brian mentioned earlier, here is the link to the post he was referencing: https://redbirdrants.com/2018/02/20/st-louis-cardinals-autonomy-maddux/
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.