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Some people are still worried about the quality of the bullpen, but the stats are interesting.
Leone – 2.56 ERA / 1.05 WHIP
Gregerson – 4.57 ERA / 1.34 WHIP (but 70 Ks in 61 innings)
Lyons – 2.83 ERA / 1.09 WHIP
Brebbia – 2.44 ERA / 0.93 WHIP
Tuivailala – 2.55 ERA / 1.09 WHIP
Motte – 3.54 ERA / 1.18 WHIP
Norris – 4.21 ERA / 1.34 WHIP (but 74 Ks in 62 IP)
Cecil – 3.88 ERA / 1.28 WHIP (but 66 Ks in in 67 IP)Maybe there’s a true upside if Gregerson and Cecil have comeback years, and Reyes can contribute. And a competition for the most save opportunities may not be a bad thing at all.
I took a quick look at the Baseball Forecaster’s ERA projections for these pitchers in 2018 compared to 2017.
ERA up – Leone, Lyons, Brebbia, Tuivailala, Norris
ERA down – Gregerson, Cecil
Not listed – MotteProbably not the picture you’d hoped for.
Without looking, whose bullpen was better last year?
Atlanta
LA Angles
Houston
Toronto
St. LouisThe Cardinals problem was their lineup couldn’t overcome mistakes and go win a game. They only partially fixed that issue. They need at least one more bat and didn’t bother to get it. They needed a true closer and didn’t get that either. By the way, St. Louis had the 7th best bullpen last season 10 spots higher than World Champion Houston. Now I ask, does adding the above guys from worse bullpens help you when three of the four weren’t wanted by their former clubs? This off season had so much promise and was basically a joke how they finished it. They didn’t really address their needs at all.
Karnak says: get rid of the guys whose ERAs will be higher and get some that are “forecasted” to be lower. OR… should we watch to see what they actually accomplish.
Do these “projections” use DNA samples? or other ways to tell how a player will perform? Palm reading, tea leaves, Ouija board or the magic eight ball, or perhaps a combination of gizmos to look into the future.
Are any of these prognostications ever checked? I think I’ll make a copy of this small sample and report back in Oct.
@TexasCard – Saying the Cardinals had the 7th best bullpen last year is misleading.
The Cardinals bullpen allowed 35% of inherited runners to score, tied for 4th worst in MLB
IS%The Cardinals were simply blowing leads before they became save opportunities…
14NyquisT – projections are based on statistical analysis. Just like WAR, the error term is probably bigger than the actual projection in a lot of cases.
Well, no projections are always right, but the Baseball Forecaster has been published for 32 years and is very respected across the game. I would put their projections, based on methodologies, not tea leaves, up against fan-driven wishes and hopes any day of the week and be closer to the pin far more often than not.
As a follow on point, I actually do audit BaseballHQ’s Cardinals projections every year. They are posted in a members’ article here on the site. The pitchers one went up on January 10. Here is the link.
https://thecardinalnation.com/baseballhq-projects-2018-st-louis-cardinals-pitchers/
To summarize, among the Cards relievers last year, here is how they actually performed compared to their pre-season 2017 ERA projections from BaseballHQ.
Actual ERA higher than projection: Bowman, Cecil, Oh, Siegrist, Socolovich, Broxton
Actual ERA lower than projection: Lyons, Rosenthal
Not included in 2017 projections: Brebbia, Tuivailala, DukeSo based on this one-year look back, their 2017 ERA projections for the Cardinals bullpen were generally too optimistic.
I fully understand that 2016. I just told y’all where they finished. Again, the bullpen’s overall numbers were 7th best last year. They had a small margin of error because too often the offense and defense didn’t do their job. I still stand by my overall point and question of how can this version of the pen be better with the guys they added. They were some of the worst on their team last year and 3 of the 4 weren’t welcomed back. Depending on “ifs” will not end well.
That bullpen last year certainly was blowing leads, particularly Cecil, Broxton, and Oh. Rosenthal cost us some games last year, too. And Siegrist wan’t very good, either. If all of these players had pitched up expectations, we would have surely won the wild card, if not the division. I’m still worried about Cecil because he was so bad especially during the first half of the season. But the players replacing Broxton, Oh, Siegrist, and Rosenthal (i.e. Brebbia, Tuivailala, Norris, Gregerson, Leone) definitely look like they should be better.
Don’t forget any pitcher down in the bullpen will have to overcome the manager. He is well known for overusing the bullpen and wearing them out. Frankly that’s why Rosenthal got broke. I posted about the abuse he was getting by the manager on the old board and said then it was only a matter of time. Well that time expired.
This would be a fascinating, but very difficult study for the analytics department. Chasing the best possible matchup (by bringing in the optimal reliever) is the best decision in any individual situation. But what are the tradeoffs in terms of downstream impact – both in that game and in terms of pitcher workload over a long season and career? I sometimes wonder if the latter is forgotten while chasing the former.
I am not picking on Matheny, but his oft-repeated words are ringing in my ear – “I will do what will give me the best chance to win today.”
A bullpen with 29 losses last year is unacceptable. And who knows how many losses the relievers handed our starters, after they left the game. I like Leone, but the rest of our bullpen additions are questionable. But with these additions, at least the young kids can start in minors and not be rushed.
Are forecasters factoring in the Maddux factor? Not only certain pitchers he tutors who may thrive under him, but also how he slots them in games throughout the season?
You touch on a very interesting subject. How much input did Lilliquist have in pitching changes and how/if will that change with Maddux? A major unknown. No one could forecast numbers based on this.
Further, I have not investigated what Maddux’ reputation is regarding handling of bullpens and how his relievers have performed statistically over time. How much control did he have under Dusty and Ron Washington and the other managers?
What I am saying is that I would not assume a new coach, even a respected one, will have a measurable, positive impact on the ERAs of the relievers compared to his predecessor. No easy way to determine.
I hope the new coaches have some autonomy and are not all “yes” men. This is very, very hard to gauge without being in the dugout. Then, there is the analytics angle to try to understand. Which decisions will be based on the charts and which on what the coach believes is best? Who knows other than them? And which coach?
Not germane to Matheny, but I recently stumbled across an old interview with Joe Pettini after he left the Cardinals. He was commenting on the fact that even as the bench coach, he was not all that busy – it wasn’t like TLR asked his opinion during games. TLR did talk with Duncan, who seemed on a different plane from the other coaches. Of course, they had been together for 30 years.
Will Maddux garner that kind of respect from Matheny from day one? Will Matheny delegate in a year when his job may be on the line? Will it work? Only time will tell.
I just told y’all where they finished. Again, the bullpen’s overall numbers were 7th best last year.
How were they 7th best? By one very important measure, they were 4th worst…
I get that they were 7th best in Save %, but if you blow a lead before it becomes a save opportunity, that stat is very misleading.
I know they blew saves and I said they needed a closer. Again they failed to get one and I still ask how can this version be considered better than last year’s bullpen?
As Bernie pointed out today, the Cardinals have gone into many seasons with unclear closer situations and came out just fine.
https://www.101sports.com/2018/02/19/cardinals-dont-ideal-closer-now-just-wait-surprise/
I have yet to see any hard info about who is making what decisions not that there is not any available but I haven’t seen it.
I also see a lot of angst about Matheny’s handling of the bullpen but rarely if ever any specifics of what he has done wrong except for overworking some relievers. I know some advocate bringing in the closer earlier than the four or five out save but I don’t see many major league teams doing that. Madden did that with Chapman in the 16 world series and Chapman has not been the same since.
You can make about any point you want with some stats but more important to me is that in 2017 Oh, Broxton, Socolovich, and Siegrist melted down and Cecil and Bowman were mediocre at best. Rosy got off to a poor start and just as he got going the arm went. Mayers was ineffective again and while Sherriff, Tuivailala, Lyons and Brebbia finished pretty well they also had their rough spots. Now what kind of performance would you expect in that scenario.
I really prefer to hope that the coaching staff does great and that the Cardinals win their division, the pennant and the world series. I am more into enjoying the game than second guessing professionals. However, I will still want to get that guy out of the game before he blows it or wonder why this lineup. And I will be wrong more than I am right. Maybe the difference between me and some is that I know I will be wrong.
On another topic I wonder how much our new General Manager had to do with the offseason deals. I like a lot of them. Thought they did real well with the Ozuna deal and also with what we got for Piscotty and Grichek. Wish both of them well but we can fill in behind them. Leone could well be the 2018 closer.
Mike Matheny has stated that his hardest decisions as far as bullpen management have been when the analytics say one thing and all of his experience as a multiple Gold Glove major league catcher say another. That’s been his struggle. Hope Maddux can help.
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