Jake Arrieta free agent thread + Darvish to Cubs

Home The Cardinal Nation Forums Open Forum Jake Arrieta free agent thread + Darvish to Cubs

This topic contains 176 replies, has 24 voices, and was last updated by bicyclemike bicyclemike 1 year, 7 months ago.

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  • #43739
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    PadsFS
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    grayssportsalmanac

    “Cubs develop hitters and buy pitchers. Cards develop pitchers and acquire a few hitters, but not often enough”

    I just want to say something. The Cubs don’t exactly develop hitters. Most of their guys are top 10 draft picks. I’d say the Cardinals do a much better job of developing or finding low-rated hitters, ie Carpenter, Adams, DeJong, Bader, Pham, Kelly, Craig, etc. are much more difficult to find or develop than Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Russell, Happ, or Almora, who were all top draft choices and developed as such.

    Contreras has been their only player that wasn’t a pre-ordained star to begin with. You have to go back to Starlin Castro and Giovany Soto to find the last position players that the Cubs “developed”.

    Theo has done two things well. Draft big-time players and make excellent trades while tanking.

    #43748
    Brian Walton
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    Well, Pads, of course there is truth in noting that drafting earlier increases the odds of getting a better player. Yes, they made wise picks overall. However, I think you are selling short the importance of player development. Not every first-rounder becomes a star – a lot of them fail along the way. Was it a busted pick or failed player development in the minors? Never a clear answer.

    I believe the Cubs have done better than most in developing top position player prospects into impactful major leaguers.

    #43752
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    thejager
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    agreed Pads…i was thinking the same thing, but you said it better than i could (obviously)

    all i would add is that we developed Pujols pretty well out of a low pick…and Yadi has developed pretty darned well too and at the MLB level which rarely happens… I think Bryant and Rizzo are nice and all but are they HOF hitters? Bryant has a shot i think, Rizzo I dunno…and the cubs didnt really develop him anyways…Bryant’s development too is questionable as he played almost no time in the minors…he was good enough to come right up and play, sure he will get better as he plays in the MLB but what he learned in the minors system didnt get him where he is.

    not the amefor Pujols who i think did figure it out as a result of the Cardinals system…same goes for Yadi (and no i am not equating Yadi as a hitter to Pujols…but i am saying Yadi is a HOFer who woudlnt be a HOFer if his bat hadnt developed along the way)

    Contreras is a nice find…and BAez’s growth from what he originally showed is worth mentioning, but until i see couple years from those guys at the high levels they show i dont see it as anything more than finding a diamond in the rough…which all teams do

    #43759
    BlackHillsCard
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    The Red Sox have done a good job in developing players as well. Jackie Bradley, Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts are guys they’ve developed just recently. All of them are starters and came up through the Red Sox system.

    Pujols only spent one season in the minors. Bryant spent two years in the Cubs system so I’m not following your rationale on how Bryant wasn’t developed by the Cubs but Pujols was developed by the Cards.

    #44046
    bicyclemike
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    A bit of a “chicken or egg” deal with systems and developing hitters. Pujols for example would have been a great hitter where ever he matriculated. He just happened to be a guy most scouts felt had a bad baseball body, and would not hold up in the big leagues.

    #44530
    Brian Walton
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    Boras, I mean Heyman, wrote an article about the most likely destinations for Arrieta. The Cards are fourth.

    https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-picking-jake-arrieta-new-team/

    #44542
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    14NyquisT
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    This just in: Arrietta signs on with the Yomiuri Giants to fill the spot of Miles Mikolas in the Giants rotation. Terms have not been disclosed. 🙂

    #44563
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    gscottar
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    Heyman might as well have ranked us the 29th most likely destination. I would say there is a 1% chance we sign Arrieta.

    #44565
    bicyclemike
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    I keep hearing Arrieta and the Phillies will be the match. I do think we need to solidify our rotation with a solid veteran that can be counted on every fifth day. Lynn could be that guy, but he is no doubt waiting to see what happens with Arrieta.

    #44913
    Brian Walton
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    This story from USA TODAY indicates several possible contenders for Arrieta. It does not seem like anything is hot.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/03/01/jake-arrieta-potential-landing-spots/386182002/

    This MLB article covers Lynn and Cobb along with Arrieta.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-free-agency-latest-on-arrieta-lynn-cobb/c-267725292

    #45476
    Brian Walton
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    #45536
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    gscottar
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    Looks like Arrieta to the Phillies is now official.

    #45542
    mbusapp
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    3 years, 75 million for Arrieta.

    #45544
    Ratsbuddy
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    Mistake by Philadelphia.

    #45545
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    TexasCard
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    I agree Ratsbuddy.

    #45555
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    mudville
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    The Phillies are paying him for the Cy Young Award he got three years ago. IMO, the two dumbest GM’s in the game are A.J. Preller of the Padres and Matt Klentak of the Phillies. Of course, the guys that hired them are just as dumb.

    #45563
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    gscottar
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    Philly has money to burn. Even after Arrieta they will still have one of the lowest payrolls in MLB and they are one of the highest revenue producing teams.

    #45565
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    So their 2018 payroll is $75,378,833. Arrieta makes up almost half of that at 30m. Add Santana and those two alone are close to 3/4 Of the team expenditures.

    #45569
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    gscottar
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    They will probably bid high on Harper, Machado, and Donaldson next offseason too. They have at least another $100M to spend.

    #45667
    bicyclemike
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    The signing of Arrieta was more than just inking a veteran pitcher. The Phillies may have increased their chances at Harper et all by this signing. If Arrieta has a good year, and they play around .500 or better, then that is all the more enticing to a top name free agent.

    I am sure they knew there is no way one of the top players in next year’s class will want to sign with a poor club. So they add a couple of guys who can help them be respectable, both on the field and in next off-season’s negotiations. Not too mention some mentors for their talented young guys. It was part of their overall strategy, and might just be an excellent move.

    #45686
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    gscottar
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    I totally agree Mike. This signing was more about the future than 2018 although Arrieta does have an opt out after year two of the deal.

    #45757
    bicyclemike
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    I totally agree Mike. This signing was more about the future than 2018 although Arrieta does have an opt out after year two of the deal.

    Yep, it sounds counter-intuitive but this is one of those signings where bringing on a veteran is geared towards looking a few years down the road. If they can bring in a top name free agent like Machado or Harper for 2019, then go out and have a strong season they are in a win-win with Arrieta. If he is pitching well and stays, they most likely remain competitive. If he leaves, they are off the hook on the contract.

    The downside risk is that Arrieta is damaged goods and does not do well. But he’s always been a guy dedicated to conditioning, so I think the Phillies made a good move with this deal.

    I wish our club would be a little more aggressive like this now and then. Enough of the Brandon Moss nonsense. Although in fairness, they did make strong offers to jason Heyward and David Price a couple of years ago. And as it has turned out, they were lucky to have been outbid on both guys, at least to date. We’ll see if either guy can get it together and justify their deals.

    The Cubs undoubtedly hope Heyward has a good year, and then opts out of his deal (I think he has that option after this year).

    #45759
    Brian Walton
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    The odds of Heyward opting out are only slightly better than my odds taking his place in the Cubs starting lineup. 😉

    #45802
    bicyclemike
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    The odds of Heyward opting out are only slightly better than my odds taking his place in the Cubs starting lineup. ?

    He would have to have a career year in one of the option seasons, and even that might not entice him since the Cubs should be a contender for awhile, and the free agent market looks like it might be trending down a bit.

    Seems like all but a few organizations, maybe even all but two (LA and Boston), are taking the approach of building from within, and content to put up with several years of poor-to-mediocre teams in exchange for that window of greatness.

    #45877
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    gscottar
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    I think the Dodgers are all about building from within. That is in Andrew Friedman’s DNA. Their payroll has decreased over $100M since he took over.

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