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Does it take more gumption to stick to their plan to develop from within or consider shortcuts to try to compete sooner than expected?
A shortcut to compete doesn’t have to be an albatross contract (or a bunch of smaller Mo style deals) to block them from doing other things forever. It could simply be crafting a usable bullpen, which we all knew would be their challenge this year and has easily been the difference between playing meaningful games right now and playing out the string, as they are currently doing.
They could plan to giving guys like Baez (x2), Bernal, etc. every chance to prove their mettle next year while making a move or two to strength the bench, the rotation and the bullpen and it wouldn’t crush their payroll. They owe very little going forward. A stopgap starter in the May mold, a pen arm in the Romero mold, and a bench platoon bat wouldn’t cost all that much.
Not a comment on the game yet. Not that it really merits much comment. Libby was ok. The offense has been very bad with only 2 hits in a game they trail 1-0 in the 7th.
A front office or fanbase that wants to win next year wouldn’t want that. But the fans rarely get any say and who knows if the front office will have the gumption to take the steps to improve meaningfully next year or not.
I think that the top 4 guys in your list have all earned the right to be starters to begin 2027. Liberatore has not, and if we had any semblance of certainty in the bullpen, he would potentially be a non tender candidate. As is, I suspect that they keep him around for lefty bullpen help unless they can trade him.
The Cards could go with Fitts or someone like that if they want to super cheap out. Guys like Roby will be waiting in the nearby wings and the whole AA rotation could be in Memphis before long next year. I’d personally like to see a longer term arm brought in as I’m not that certain about Pallante, then McGreevy, which could well open a rotation need. A one year deal for a May-like player could work. It would certainly be a moot point if Doyle, Franklin and perhaps Fajardo or Cijntje look ready to fill rotation spots next year.
It remains to be seen whether JJ is 100% or not. It feels like a bit of a Hail Mary for the ROY situation. But if he can put together a hot last 10 games and get his average over .250, get to 20 HRs, close the OPS+ gap on Stewart a bit (currently 105 to 122), and perhaps find a way to get to 6 WAR, while Stewart stagnates over the closing stretch, then perhaps he can sneak in and steal the award (and the valuable pick) away. We shall see. I’m hopeful that he can do it.
I believe Bud Smith pitched the last Cardinal no-hitter. I read up on that start recently…he threw 134 pitches against the same Padre team that roughed him up in his last start.
Before that, it was Jose Jimenez outduelling the Big Unit in 1999.
I noticed that Fajardo wasn’t used yesterday. With Doyle’s blister, maybe Yhoiker will get the start this week? Should be a fun series with Tulsa. Beat those Dodger dandies!
The bullpen has been weak all year and I feel like it was the front office plan to ensure it ended up that way. We need multiple relievers at the back end of games to emerge or be brought in. Hopefully the gamble with forcing the team to be bad pays off with a decent draft slot.
I would be remiss not post this on this solemn day…25 years ago, we experienced such a national tragedy and we must never forget those that died and those that gave their lives to save others. Jack Buck’s poem prior to the first game back that fall always strikes a reminiscent note. We miss Jack and I miss the unity we had as a people in those days after 9/11.
Just getting back to this. I listened on Wednesday as usual. Great discussion, Brian and Kyle!
The Cards could have a trio of silent consonant players here in the next few years. Yhoiker Fajardo, Jurrangelo Cijntje, and Cooper Hjerpe would all fit nicely in the “silent but deadly” pitching staff. 😀
On a final note, I’ve been trying to think of a semi recent great starting pitching debut for the Cards that was before Hjerpe’s. Going way back to Michael Wacha seems too long to be it, but it may well be the case. He went 7 innings, 2 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, 6 Ks in his MLB debut against Kansas City in 2013.
Great throws by Rainiel in that report. He’s really doing some good work on all sides, it seems. It’ll be exciting to watch him next year, as he’ll presumably be at Memphis with a chance to make a big league debut at 20.
And Franklin continues to impress at AA. He and Doyle are a good starting pair, and I would assume they’ll have their choice between Eagen, Fajardo, Davis and Aita for the 3rd rotation spot in the 3 game playoff. I’d probably go with that order of preference and I expect Eagen may get the call as he has been dependable since coming over. With Lin on board as well, they’ve got a lot of guys capable of covering innings.
This is as much depth as I can recall and it will be difficult to keep the list to 50. We may need to shoot on by to the top 70 this year, and even then, there will be intriguing guys left off IMO.
Sebastian Dos Santos had a really nice finish to the year at Palm Beach after scuffling a bit to start. Ended up with a good line and showed some power in a league that isn’t easy to get to power in. He and Miguel Hernandez did great in A ball at 18 years old. I don’t know a ton about their defense, but it seems like if anyone is going to pull a Rainiel Rodriguez and go from semi obscurity to a top prospect in 2027, it will be one of them.
Also, that list of standouts is one of the better ones we’ve had this year. It’s a bunch of guys who project to or we certainly hope can make a big league impact in the next three years or so. It’s fun to see Condon hit the ground running. I feel even better about that pick at the moment, although I’d be curious to hear the scouting talk from his first couple weeks in professional baseball.
Odle has been starting, and I’m sure they’ll try to keep him there as long a possible. At the same time, I’d love to see him in the Springfield bullpen for the playoffs. The Cardinals have really been targeting the college reliever to pro starter pipeline the last few years.
Nice to get the win. Despite the front office actively trying to lose, they are managing to keep their heads above water.
My guess is that any moves heading into 2027 will be trades and relatively inexpensive veterans on one-year contracts. I don’t think their full financial appetite will return in the next six months.
It’s very possible. I think that the majority of the money they sent out for Gray, Contreras and Arenado came out this year, so I’m hopeful that they may consider being a little more aggressive this year. I doubt they pick up the options for Stanek or Urias. Some money will go to the newly arb eligible guys, especially Walker, Winn and Herrera. Gorman will likely leave the books and not be tendered for Arb2, and perhaps Liberatore as well. Hopefully they will make a couple of smart moves with a look to the future.
I’m not asking that they eat filet mignon, but I’d also prefer the fare to not be gas station hot dogs.
25 that is probably a. ,105 win team with those stats. — exactly why it won’t happen
I figured it was around 95-97. Maybe the math isn’t too far off. But I do think that in today’s day and age, you need a 100ish win true talent team to beat the Dodgers and whatever club comes out of the AL. The point is that if everything broke right it would be possible. It’s not likely. But it’s much more possible than it was the last few Mozeliak years.
The season has been a modest step forward, and a little more than that on the farm level. I would say that whether we look back at it as a success will depend a lot more on what happens in 2027-2030 than the win-loss record for this year will end up showing.
Chaim Bloom has talked about creating a championship contender, so I think that is the lens I’m going to focus through. In my mind, to be a real World Series contender, you need to have most, if not all of the following in place:
1. A couple of star level performers (MVP or Cy Young vote getters, the sorts of guys who are going to perform day in and day out).
2. A lineup with no more than one weak link (an elite defender with a noodle bat may not be a weak link the same as an elite hitter who can’t catch the ball…but you can’t have more than one guy who struggles to hit or field well enough to avoid the 0-0.5 WAR hole).
3. A rotation with four solid starters and at least one or two of them being legitimate #1-2 starters for October. You can make October with 4 guys and even win with 3, but they have to be very good at the top.
4. A bullpen that is pretty much leak proof at the back end of games. You need reliable arms for the 7th-9th innings and even need some depth here to cover earlier innings in October.
5. Minors or other organizational depth to cover for injuries throughout the season.
It is theoretically possible to win if one or two of these are off the charts dominant (like a staff of aces, or a completely stacked lineup or totally lights out bullpen), but for practical purposes I will be using these 5 measures to define what I think the Cards will need to be successful (aka have a real shot to win a pennant/World Series in the next three or so years).
So, these are my thoughts on the areas defined above:
1. The Cardinals have several good players, but I do not think they have any true stars on the team. Sure, Wetherholt has a great WAR total, but it’s built on more fickle stats such as defensive OAA. Burleson is a solid bat and so is Walker. Winn is a great defender. Herrera can hit a little. Beyond that, I wouldn’t say there are many plus tools on the team. I would say that they need two guys better than Walker or Burleson to be a true contender. Wetherholt may be one. The other will likely have to come from the system or via trade.
2. The lineup has not only two weak links, they have at least three and possibly four as currently constructed and can feasibly be constituted with the current group of players. 3B, CF, LF and C are all big question marks (in order of question size from biggest to least). Can Baez, Bernal or Rodriguez make at least two of those spots average or above? We will still need something more from 3B and CF to get anything out of the next few years.
3. The staff has performed reasonably, and I think we have a few mid to back end guys. Leahy, I feel most comfortable with saying he’s a #3-4 guy. But he’s also no spring chicken. McGreevy has a problem missing bats and that means he’s almost assuredly no better than a #4-5 going forward. Pallante is still not trustworthy but could be the #5 on a good team. Otherwise, Liberatore is clearly best suited for the pen. Mathews looks like he should be a back end starter. Ideally, we need two guys better than Leahy. Will they come from the system or via trade or free agency?
4. The pen is really where the Cards chose to go cheap this year and it shows. O’Brien is fine…Graceffo, Bruihl and Soriano have also been decent. That says a lot about how the team looks. Not just ideally…I think necessarily you need two guys better than O’Brien for the 8th and 9th. You’d also like some depth. Thankfully this is not the hardest part of the rest of the rebuild, so they should find some arms somewhere.
5. The farm is looking healthier. Part of it feels a bit illusory…other than Springfield, it doesn’t seem like any of the farm teams are really performing that well. Part of it is that the Cards have been going for the type of toolsy prospects with athleticism to dream on and tools (power, great fastballs) that seem to get prospect raters excited. But there is some good stuff to work with here and hopefully we will see it come to fruition in the next few years. They need Rainiel to pan out and it would be super nice if Doyle or Franklin (or both) became a star as well because I don’t see the Dewitts shelling out for multiple big free agents or trades.
So I guess it’s a bit of a TBD situation for me. On the surface, I don’t see it as successful. But it very well may be that the building blocks are there and they will come together over the 2027 and 2028 seasons. Sort of like the hitter who’s crushed the ball all year but due to a low BABIP, his stats don’t end up looking great. Or the prospect who tweaks his fastball to add velocity and movement but the results just aren’t there yet. As constructed, I’m not sure I think the Cards will be title contenders in 2028 or 2029. But you could squint (with Cardinal colored glasses) and see something like this come 2029ish:
2B Wetherholt 5 WAR
C Rodriguez 5 WAR
1B Burleson/Gurevitch/Bernal 2.5 WAR
RF Walker 4 WAR
3B Big Acquisition 3-5 WAR
LF Baez 2.5 WAR
DH Bernal/Burly Gurevitch 2 WAR
SS Winn 3 WAR
CF Condon 2.5 WARSP Doyle 5 WAR
SP Logan Gilbert 3.5-4 WAR
SP Mathews 2.5 WAR
SP Fajardo 2 WAR
SP McGreevy 2 WARBP-Franklin, Cijntje, Hjerpe, O’Brien, other acquistions-elite end of game bullpen
Would that team be a title contender if the stats fell the way they’re listed? Sure. Of course it’s no given, but Chaim and company have created a situation where it’s at least feasible. That’s a lot more than could be said for the last several years of the Mozeliak era. So that’s something at least.
I agree with gscottar that the Cards likely won’t be swinging for the fences in 2027, but hope that they will at least not being actively trying to lose. Of course, adding veteran free agents in 2028 rather than next year is a move to try, but the question always remains as to whether it’s a good strategy or not. Without looking deeply at the next couple of free agent classes, it may be that the needs we have will be better filled this off season rather than next. Hopefully Chaim and company can pull off some good moves.
I think many have been penciling Jesus Baez in as the (hopeful) 3B of the future, but Ortiz is making a case for himself as well. I’m glad to see that he’s hitting lately. Those hand injuries really put a damper on things.
I think there’s room for some variation in ratings, but in general I agree with you. As Baseball America mentioned in their podcast posted on here last week, the Cardinals have some high level talent (Rodriguez, Doyle, Bernal, and Baez…if he doesn’t graduate) are almost certainly on every top 100 after this year) and a ton of guys who would go into a top 250. Some of those guys, for one reason or another, will strike a fancy enough to get into a top 100 list. Baez is probably one of those guys. I’d also put Franklin, Fajardo, Mathews, Frias and if you really stretch, Condon and Cintjie into that group.
The Cardinals almost certainly do not have 11 of the top 100 prospects in the game. It’s of course theoretically possible we could look back in 5 years and say they did. But for production, age and potential (tools) it’s highly unlikely for one system to get that sort of billing from any prospect rater. That said, they could have 8 or 9 different guys go onto a top 100 list somewhere. That’s fairly impressive in its own right. I personally would not put Baez in a top 100 but I think he’d be a top 150 guy if I had the time to rank it all out. And I would imagine (no hard data on this) that the 100-150 guys are probably all FV 45ish guys, so the flavor you like is probably not all that significant.
I have Baez at 12 (probably should be 11 as I like him a little better than Cho). The Cards system is just so deep. Baez has some time to work on it, but the walk rate is so low that he’ll struggle even if he has plus power to work with. Still, that he can manage a passable SS bodes well to an eventual transition to 3B. I *think* the best version of Jesus Baez looks something like Nolan Arenado with the bat…good power, lower strikeout and walk rates, generally a decently above average line at the plate. Mid range for me is early career Tyler O’Neill where the Ks and walks just never get in line, other than for a few glorious spans where he looks like an MVP candidate and then falls back to a below average hitter. On the low end…well, he wouldn’t be an MLB hitter at all. Not that my comparisons are bat only, without regard for the glove as I don’t have a strong feel for that yet.
So…should he be a top 100 prospect? I’d put him near the edge of the list. I suspect that we’ll see him pop up on a couple this off-season due to age and his great 2026. I don’t know that I think I’d put him over most of the top 10 I currently have even if he hit 10 more long balls between now and season’s end.