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MLB Off-Season Spending, by division to date:
AL East: $307M
NL East: $143M
AL Central: $124M
NL West: $98M
AL West: $83M
NL Central: $3.7M7 teams (STL, PIT, ARI, COL, BAL, CLE) with either zero signings or only new minor league deals. 🥴
— Matt Whitener (@CheapSeatFan) January 26, 2021
I believe that a Hall vote is such a special privilege and should be taken seriously.
As do I. There should be a committee that polices this sort of thing. You submit a joke ballot and you should have to face the possible loss of your voting privilege. At the very least they should have to explain to someone what valid reason they had to vote the way they did.
Good for Realmuto. He’s a heck of a ballplayer and probably the best catcher since prime Yadi and Posey.
Both MLB and the players association are willing to cut off their noses to spite their face. It seems almost inevitable that there will be a strike or lockout in 2022. This will have a catastrophic effect on revenues as fans who are scarred by the events of 2020-21 will choose to spend their money elsewhere. Again, I could see baseball being the #3 revenue sport by 2022 and threatening #4 by the decade’s end.
I’d be in favor of any deal that gets us away from Cy Hendricks. Probably wishful thinking though. Of course, if the Cubs totally tanked it would probably put them in the market for some of the free agents we are hoping to snag after next year. I would prefer that more of the big market teams remain cash strapped.
At this point, it’s not about saving money for the Pirates. They’re simply trying to be as bad as possible.
That was fine with, jj. I think Jack will probably win, too.
Agreed with Brian that it would probably take a historic number to get Jack to sign an extension. Depending on how next year goes, I might be interested in seeing the Cards do just that.
Happ is a lefty who’s missed very little time in quite some time (2017 was the only season he made fewer than 30 starts since 2013), decent peripherals and rate stats. He’s worth more than Waino, for sure.
On Fangraphs rankings, I should note that an addition of 0.1 WAR could move the Cards all the way to 12th in the ranks. Banking on Yadi to be a little more valuable than projected is a better bet than some backup from Chicago.
I think that Yadi gives you a much higher floor than going with the younger players. I know they “project” Knizner or Heinemann, or whomever to be close or better in value, but that’s because projections are terrible at accounting for defense. At another position, they have Tyler O’Neill as a below average defender this year, which isn’t happening.
Suppose Knizner really is a -20 defender? What does that do for your defense and pitching staff? Even if he’s an average hitter, it still leaves you with a negative value catcher. So yes, the specific choice of catcher can make a large impact.
We have been spoiled by having above average catching here in St Louis for at least 20 years, and perhaps longer. We are about to find out that you can’t “project” a catcher to be even close to that value and make it so. The results on the field will be the ultimate litmus, and we will see how things end up.
I do not agree with your prediction. Why couldn’t 2021 be the year in which the in-house candidates are tried? And if they fail, use the increased 2022 financial resources to beef up the position from outside?
I think the Cards will have enough holes to plug (OF, middle infield, potentially starter) with the money they have to spend after next year that adding catcher to the mix will be a big obstacle to overcome. As I see, Salvador Perez and Travis D’Arnaud are the prizes on the free agent catcher market next year (perhaps an old Buster Posey too). Maybe they could pull off a trade, but the best case is Knizner playing this year and Herrera as a rookie in 2022. It’s hard to imagine that position being above average with a rookie and Knizner back there.
To be clear, I’m not talking about NL Central contention. The Cards are set up fine for that. I mean World Series contention, where above average at every position is going to be required for a team without superstars.
Even with the moves lately, it feels like the stove is still cold. Hoping to at least see the Cards sign a utility infielder or something. What a dull off-season.
I don’t want to bccran this one to death so I’ll stop with it after this. I was high on Knizner before (I felt the Cards made the right call in trading Kelly rather than him) but while the Cards stink at evaluating some positions, catcher is a place they’ve always done well at so I trust that how they handled him in 2020 means something about him.
If it’s Andrew starting in 2021, I will be rooting him on and won’t be harsh on him if he can’t make it because he has some limits. I think he’d be perfect to go with Herrera if Ivan can become the all around catcher we all hope for.
How can that be when there have been actual projections showing Knizner’s WAR equal to Yadi’s?
To be blunt, the projections are full of it. Knizner will probably be a solid hitter (for a catcher), but every scouting report I’ve ever seen on Knizner says his glove is below average. The early numbers we have on him show him as a -20 run defender, which jives with his scouting reports. If Yadi is a +5 or so, what kind of value with the bat will Knizner have to have to make up the difference?
If the Cards really want to contend in 2022 they’d need to throw Herrera in the deep end and let him sink or swim in 2021 so he’s fully seasoned in 2022.
I guess in my thinking, Yadi is at least twice the catcher that Castro is at this point (FG and BRef seem to be split on this). McCann’s projection on FG is between 0.8-1.3 WAR as well, although he’s considered on the upswing. So a small bump for McCann and a small dock for Yadi puts him around $8M value. Perhaps that is a little premium on Yadi for legacy, which is ok if you’re ok with paying for a decent bridge to Herrera.
I’ll also acknowledge that there’s a backfire risk…not so much that Yadi will be an albatross contract, but that Yadi becomes a malcontent if the Cards decide that they want to bring Knizner or Herrera into a time split. I don’t blame those who wish to be rid of Yadi and move on, but we all need to understand that 2022 becomes a non contending season in that case.
Agreed. The HOF and MLB should set the standards and disqualify those who don’t meet it before voting starts.
Bob brought up Waino and Yadi. No doubt there will be national writers writing very similar things about St Louis should they end up elsewhere.
But I’m ok with them bashing the Cubs for now. Lol
Wieters was really bad in 2020, both at the plate and with the glove. I’m sure being a year older, he doesn’t strike the brass as a starting caliber catcher.
and both Knizner and Wieters got to sit around and watch Yadi play.
There were a ton of double-headers, so Wieters got plenty of starts (at least 8 after Yadi came back). Those starts could have gone to Knizner, very easily. To me, it’s telling that the team didn’t do that. So I would phrase it that Knizner was not considered the better player.
Put it this way, if Knizner and Wieters were the two catchers on the roster in 2021 who do you think would get more playing time?
In 2021, probably Knizner. In 2020, it would have been Wieters.
Thanks, that makes sense. It’s definitely been the dullest off-season for the Cards ever and doesn’t look like it’ll get much better. At this point, they may compete in the Central but not for anything beyond that. As far as I’m concerned, offer Yadi and Waino one year (and only one year) and let they and Carp ride off into the sunset after 2021, starting over with a clean slate.
Jj, could you explain to me why Castro? His BRef stats don’t exactly wow me. Two negative WAR years and 0.4 total in three years with DRS in the negative for two years as well. Is it the bat? Or are you seeing something that I’m not? I feel like whatever projections are saying that he and Yadi are similar value players are really overstating Castro.
