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Looking back on my picks:
1. The Cardinals start the season on a tear…in a bad way. They are 29-52 at the midway point and 100 losses seems almost certain as fans are despairing of the future. However, they finish the final half at 46-35 to end up at 75 wins, gaining momentum for the 2027 season.
Pretty much got this one opposite. The first half was surprisingly good and the second half was putrid. They were 40-31 in the first 71 games and 37-54 the last 91 games.
2. JJ Wetherholt is up all season and hits .280 on the nose. He finishes 3rd in the rookie of the year voting, causing much weeping and gnashing of teeth amongst supporters of Dewitt’s finances.
JJ was up all year and will likely not with ROY. If he somehow finishes 3rd, I’ll award a full point, but with the extension the Dewitt backers can breathe easy. Half a point here.
3. Dustin May is the deadline’s hottest commodity after allowing 1 earned run in 4 starts (27 IP, 26K, 6BB) in late May and June. He’s traded to Seattle after their rotation falls apart due to injury, and the return is Ryan Sloan, who has had just an OK 2026 so far, due to the Mariners’ desperation.
You know, this one didn’t turn out so badly. He did have a hot steak in late May and June (27-2/3 IP, 4 ER, 33K, 4BB) and while he wasn’t the hottest deadline commodity, it’s not hard to argue that outside of Skubal, the Cards got the best return for their trade of May and Romero to Milwaukee. I’m going to award a full point here.
4. The backfill for May is Quinn Mathews, who becomes the best starter in the rotation, going 7-1 to end the year with impeccable command after finding just the right grip early season in Memphis.
Not a bad call here, either. Mathews may not have been the best pitcher at the end of the year, but he acquitted himself pretty well. No points but was probably my third best prediction.
5. Joshua Baez hits .300+ with 20 HRs for Memphis by late July while Jordan Walker scuffles along. The Cards bring up Baez, who hits .188 the rest of the way and option Walker to Memphis, where he hits .370 with 15 HRs in 45 games. Memphis wins the AAA title. Right field remains a black hole and a huge question mark for the future.
A mixed bag here, as Baez was elite in Memphis. Walker was really good while Baez was coming up, only to tank at the end of the year. Baez wasn’t as bad as I predicted, and Memphis didn’t win the AAA title. So…a quarter point?
Overall, a respectable showing…maybe my best year, if I had flipped the calls on the team’s success vs flopping and Walker’s second half flop. 1-3/4 points, with a shot to go to 2-1/4 if JJ finishes 3rd in the ROY.
The Mariners, Nationals and Twins all won today, but even though this loss happened, it didn’t help the draft odds. They are still 12th. The big beneficiary was the Tigers, who went from 11th to 7th by virtue of their loss to Pittsburgh. If the Cards had lost one more game along the way, they’d be in that 7th spot themselves. 12th to 7th roughly triples the odds of the lottery pick (12.5% to 39.2%) and the number 1 overall pick (1.27% to 4.51%). It would be nice to grab a high pick for what we hope is the tail end of the rebuild.
The Cards sit at 77-84 and in the 12th draft position for the lottery. Based on last year’s records, they cannot move ahead of Washington or Minnesota, but could pass Detroit if the Tigers win and the Cards lose. Even with a win, they cannot be passed by Toronto. So it’ll either be 11th or 12th in next year’s draft if they don’t win the lottery pick.
The Cards at 77-83 are all but baked into having the 9th-13th worst record at this point. Right now they sit at 12th, but the Brewers are so good that they may move up the draft list before the season is up.
Good to see Walker get off the schneid. It would be nice to see him get to 30 HRs for the year, even if his end of season has been very rough. And Burleson is just a righty killer.
Speaking of killers, the bullpen finds a way to lose it again. There’s a fair chance that the Cards would be preparing for October baseball if they had an above average bullpen. It’s been brutal out there this year. I don’t think anyone in the pen has really earned themselves a certain job next year.
Ideally, to be highly competitive again, we need a LOT more players in category 1 & 2 than what we have today. Maybe 5-7 more of them. That’s why 2027 doesn’t exactly look like a winner either – even with Mathews & Bernal and even if Winn or Herrera hits better again. They would either need some dramatic improvements in their current roster or to go out and sign (or trade for) 1-3 excellent free agents.
I agree (although I wouldn’t expect Pallante to maintain his status next year, as bling notes) and I’ve tried to make this argument here before. You need basically a team without any real black hole spots (such as a guy could be a noodle bat but elite defender, or a big bopper without a glove, but not more than one of those guys), or a team with a superstar or two that can overcome a couple of bad positions on his own. You also need at least two really good starters, and a very good bullpen.
For example, I’d say the Brewers this year have probably 11-13 category 1 or 2 players. The Dodgers have a similar number. Our last division winner, 2022, the Cards had probably 8 or 9 in those two categories, depending on how you quibble about the edges of the categories and whether you count deadline additions. Going back to what I would say was the last elite Cardinal team, in 2013, the Cards had 13 guys I would put in those categories by the time the playoffs came around.
Across the board, it looks like these great teams have around 5 excellent lineup players, with at least two really good starters and a bullpen of 4 or 5 guys you can rely on at the end of games. I personally do not see how the Cards get there next year either, unless we see major development from the farm guys (such as Doyle, Franklin, Rainiel makes it to the show, and a couple of bullpen arms) to where a couple of rookies end up in the top couple of tiers, and guys like Walker, Baez, Bernal, and Mathews really pan out.
Because the Brewers will skip the wild card round, they won’t play again for six days, until the following Saturday, October 3. So, maybe he throws a few innings here?
The Brewers would get skewered if he got hurt. Still, I’d let him warm up, see if he can strike out the first 9 Cardinals, and get him out after 70ish pitches. Then get the bullpen guys a light workout. The Cardinals offense isn’t going to do too much.
The Cardinals sit at 77-82, and currently reside in the 12th spot for the 2027 Draft. With 3 games to go, they have scant opportunity to get a better draft spot, with 2 games separating them from the next bottom feeders. They do, however, have a shot to worsen their draft odds, as they are at the bottom of a pile of cellar dwellers with 77 or 78 wins. The teams to watch this weekend will be Toronto, Baltimore and Miami, with Texas possibly coming into play if the Cards finish hot against the little-to-play-for Brewers.
Walker has just gone off a cliff since the all-star break and especially the last month.
I’m not sold on him at all.
Sadly, I think that’s the only reasonable take at this point. He’s a usable player, but this month has so soured things that I don’t think you can make any firm plans beyond saying that he’ll get a chance to prove he can be first half Walker all year next year.
The Cards are currently 13th worst in the MLB standings at 77-81. There are a lot of teams bunched up between 73 and 78 wins..11, to be exact. It’s very unlikely to impossible that the Cards could end up behind the 73 win teams, the Reds and Mets. The Pirates also look generally out of reach at 80-78. So the Cards would be looking at finishing with the 7th-16th worst record, for draft purposes. How they close things out will go a long way there.
I’d expect that with Leahy looking gassed and Skenes on the mound, the Pirates win this one. But we have done great against him before.
FYI – Gilbert was #42 on the list, behind May and Pallante. Is he a legit top of the rotation guy?
Yes. Some franchises have a big detrimental effect on their players, and the Mariners are one of them. I see Gilbert as having a Kevin Gausman or even Zack Wheeler like career into his 30s. Get them out of the losing mentality and into a successful organization and see them blossom.
The starting rotation was a decently bright spot this year. I’m not sure I would expect them to pitch as well next year or beyond, but they weren’t the biggest reason that we won’t be seeing any October baseball once again. I think you could feasibly run it back, but I’m hopeful that they add at least one outside arm (to replace Liberatore) and we have several of Doyle, Franklin, Cijntje, Molina, Davis, Eagen, etc. putting pressure on some of the guys who aren’t tied down by the end of next year. In a dream scenario, they sign a legit top of rotation guy after 2027 (such as Logan Gilbert) and fill in with the home grown talent in a good rotation.
Did Springfield read too many of their own press clippings? Perhaps the chest thumps and bat flips after walks in the 3rd inning suggested that they were assuming a walk in the park.
Congrats to Amarillo on a great finish to the year. For Springfield, hopefully they can learn some lessons from falling short and go out to win a title in Memphis next year.
Doyle quieted down for a pretty nice overall line. Unfortunately, Nolan Sparks just immediately coughed up the lead, with a little help from a Jesus Baez error.
Liam Doyle has mostly been in the zone, except for a 4 pitch walk in the 3rd. But Amarillo has forced him to use a lot of pitches…almost 60 through 3.
Rainiel just ripped a huge homer, 110 mph off the bat and 428 feet to give the Cardinals a 2-1 lead!
Hopefully Kyle is on the job to reverse his jinx from last night!!
Another great discussion, though. Thank you for sharing, Brian and Kyle. I think it would be fun for hot takes from the end of Springfield and Memphis’ series in the next few days, but I can wait for next week. Will be sad to have all three top level teams end their seasons in the same week.
Springfield never could mount a rally. 4-0 and we are off to the rubber match. Daniel Eagen was a bright spot with 6 scoreless innings in relief against his former team. He’s been pretty solid since coming over.
Springfield isn’t getting to the Amarillo pitcher so far. Still 4-0 after 5. They game is getting late, fast. They’ll need to get into the pen but the Amarillo hurler is only at 68 pitches. This after putting up an ERA over 6 and giving up 13 dingers in 46 innings in the regular season.
Additionally, Memphis trails 2-1 against Rochester in the AAA playoffs.
Fajardo is struggling, to say the least. 3 walks and a HBP in the 1st and now two HRs in the 2nd. It’s 4-0. The Baby Birds still have a chance as they’ll get to the Amarillo pitcher, but the bullpen will have to be sterling.