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I believe that their model has undershot the Cards win total 8 of the last 10 years and only been accurate twice, not overestimating even once. I’d guess it’s because they project regression from the Cardinal veterans, overrate the funky 2020 and never take defense into account. I fully expect 90ish wins.
Bc, it would take less than half the time you spent writing your post to copy and paste the link.
As for Edman, he’s got a ceiling of Kolten Wong’s play at 2B the last few years. That’s pretty good. More realistically, he will not be as good with the glove as Wong and possibly not as good with the bat either. A 2-3 WAR starter at 2B is fine. Gorman probably would displace Edman in that case.
But the driver for Mo seems to be not to let another Arozarena happen.
No doubt this is part of it. But let’s be honest…the main driver is payroll “flexibility” so that they can weather the storm until fans get back in the seats. We’ll see if spending opens up if fans are more plentiful nearer to the trade deadline.
One hitters group (he wouldn’t say who) had to face Cabrera/Reyes/Helsley/Gallegos today. “Welcome to camp.”
Hopefully not a young group with fragile confidence. That’s a heck of a quartet and the guys I expect pitching in high leverage roles (along with Hicks) this year.
stlcard25, we have no idea if Gorman or Carlson can hit in MLB. Carlson can shed some light on the issue this year. Gorman can show us if he can hit AAA pitching this year, then we will know if his bat is worth finding a defensive position for him. As of now, it really doesn’t matter if he can play 2B.
I can say for sure that the Cardinals are very interested in finding a position for his bat to slot in at, so why wouldn’t we talk about it too? If the bar is Tommy Edman with the bat, I’d say there’s an 80% or better chance that Gorman clears it. He may be so bad at 2b that it doesn’t matter and he’s a corner OF/DH. But basically everyone sees Gorman as having a very good shot to make it to MLB (hit AAA pitching, as you say. More on this later).
Here’s the bit from Prospects Live (Matt, who also took part with Brian in our rankings) regarding Gorman at the Alternate site:
Drew rave reviews at the alternate site and could set himself up to make his big league debut in 2021.
This wasn’t just from Mo, as Matt indicated that the info he got from someone on Liberatore was key in him downgrading Libby after the fact in his own rankings. So it was scouting based from people who had access in some way. Gorman faced these guys on an at least part time basis in Springfield (when they weren’t in St Louis):
Crismatt, Rondon, Seijas, Oviedo, Liberatore, Thompson, Elledge, Ramirez, Kaminsky, Fernandez, Whitley, Woodford, Sanchez
That’s AAA quality (or better) pitching and he got to experience it. Piece together “rave reviews” with that and I’ll rest my case. We will see how he fares in games this year but there’s a good shot he’s ready by the beginning of 2022.
Looks like he had a pretty great year all around, doesn’t it?
That was 8% above league average in the rabbit ball PCL that year. I’ve acknowledged that was the only year he’s come even close to having the .850 OPS he had at the big league level. I would love for Tommy to be an .850 OPS player, but it’s not likely. You are welcome to hope on it though.
We have no idea if Gorman can hit above A ball, much less MLB.
Well, we do have some idea. He had a SSS .857 OPS in Spring Training last year, plus excellent reviews at the Alternate Site (both from the Cards and sources of folks at places like Prospects Live). He also played pretty well at both A ball stops, 128 and 117 wRC+. At age 19, that’s a harbinger of solid things to come. It doesn’t mean he’s a gimme to perform well in St Louis, but he’s approaching Dylan Carlson in the “likely to succeed” category.
25 – The line I posted for 2019 was his major league line after being called up in 2019.
I understand that. I’m saying that hot start was a fluke in line with what happened with Grichuk, Piscotty, etc. Average bat, good glove is all you can realistically expect for Edman. We can hope for better but it’s not very likely.
I like Edman, but he had never OPSed .850 at any level until the rabbit ball year in Memphis prior to his callup in St Louis (.869 which was 8% better than league average). It’s very unlikely he will settle in at new career best OPS for the rest of his time in St Louis. If we get slightly above average offense and good to very good defense, that’s fine. Gorman has much more potential than that, though.
Gorman may be passable at 2B. But Edman is the incumbent, and if he performs well, Gorman probably isn’t going to supplant him there.
Edman is a decent player, but he’s not a potential All Star. If Gorman proves he can play decent 2B defense and continues to improve with the bat, he will get the starts. Edman can then fill in at 2B, SS, 3B perhaps or CF to spell Bader there. There’s still plenty of value in that.
Here’s a good article from VEB where some folks in the know gave their thoughts on Gorman at 2B. Those who think of 2B as the place where you need a Kolten Wong type are probably living too far in the past. Especially with great defense almost everywhere else the next few years, there’s no reason to force Gorman to the OF yet. In fact, they generally think he could be passable to average at 2B.
I would think that Brian would address them in the first rankings of the coming year. Seems like Sanchez might be ranked higher than Quezada, who would be around the Seth Elledge area (30ish) for me.
3 above average pitches and above average control? Sounds like Rondon is misrated as a FV 45 to me.
The Toddfather was the type of mood I felt the Cards would make to block Carp from getting his option vested. Glad Mo aimed higher.
I don’t think the hope for Gorman is that he ends up a LFer. At his size, if he can play a good 3B (jury is still out), he can probably play an adequate 2B. Look at Mike Moustakas, for example. At 6′ and 225, he’s a similar build and has been able to passably play 2B. That’s not to say you can’t have Gorman play 2B down the road and fill in at 1B, 3B, DH some and be a guy who gets replaced by a better defender late in the game. But there is way more value to be trying that first before immediately moving him to the OF, which is the bottom of the defensive spectrum and easily filled with a bat if you want to.February 19, 2021 at 10:37 am in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021 #154617
That’s some commitment. It’s also sort of forced when you are in a division with a juggernaut free spender like the Dodgers.
Hopefully in a couple of years, teams will be talking about trying to take down the juggernaut Cardinals in the NL Central. 😁
Not a great injury for someone who wants to hit, throw or catch. Hopefully Julio comes back strong later this year.
More importantly if I have a pitcher signed to a $100M contract I don’t want him in the batter’s box or running the bases.
Cardinals fans of all teams should be all too aware of this reality. Waino’s injury in 2015 cost him whatever outside shot at the Hall of Fame that he had. Would have been a heck of an addition to that 100 win team.February 19, 2021 at 8:36 am in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021 #154596
Who is the player? Is it Malcom Nunez, who is now tagged in this thread? Or Julio Rodriguez, mystery man?
Is this the place for non Cards news? Didn’t really seem like the trade rumors thread fit it either.
Anyway, JT Realmuto will miss a month thanks to a broken thumb. Not a good start to the Phillies’ big investment.
Rosie has done just enough to get a few nice paydays that usually lead to disaster, then a comeback on the cheap that looks dominant. Then repeat. Hopefully he does well in Oakland.
I can’t wait to see some games so we can see the prospects in action for the first time in a year. Interesting stuff by Shildt and Mo.February 18, 2021 at 9:38 am in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021 #154537
The Padres have to try to find a way to keep up with the Padres. Plus you know the Giants will eventually be back. It’s a deal that will either look really smart or really dumb, in all likelihood.February 17, 2021 at 8:08 pm in reply to: Trade Ideas/Acquisition Ideas/Non-Cards Rumors – 2021 #154522
$640M on the left side of the San Diego infield.