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The Cardinals are trying to sign rookie JJ Wetherholt to a long-term contract extension, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
Heyman did not provide specifics regarding a potential extension offer from the Cardinals to Wetherholt, who is hitting .250 (4-for-16) with one homer and one steal through his first four games in the majors. Still, it would make sense for both sides to explore a deal early in his rookie season, similar to the extensions the Red Sox and Orioles reached with top prospects Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Samuel Basallo last year. This report follows Seattle’s decision to sign top prospect Colt Emerson to an eight-year, $95 million contract earlier on Tuesday.
Source: New York Post/Rotoworld
I am ecstatic to hear that and hope they are able to work out an extension. Try to lock him up long term at a reasonable price before Wetherholt’s performance prices him out of STL. Wetherholt to me is the guy they should be building their marketing around as he is a Cardinals Way player.
I imagine it will look a little closer to the 8 year $130 million context but probably closer to $120 million
I dont know. I like it in a way but yet i dont. I think its a little early in my opinion. Could end up being an expensive gamble. Personally i think they should wait til the seasons over. Personally if im weatherholt i wait til after season, bet on yourself type thing.
The Cards should take the risk. If the Cards can hand out the contracts they did to guys like Mikolas and Matz, they can swing the money for Wetherholt. It wouldn’t be an amount of money that would cripple the team and they would be able to eat it if needed but I feel quite confident in Wetherholt. Great fundamentals like taking 2B on that single earlier and good glove give him a fairly high floor.
As a reminder, there is a difference between guaranteed (min) and maximum. Here are some comparison points, though these players had not yet debuted. JJ has four games under his belt.
Largest #MLB Contracts for Zero Service Time Players
SEA/INF Colt Emerson
8-years, $95M (max $130M)MIL/OF Jackson Chourio
8-years, $82M (max $140M)MIL/SS Cooper Pratt
8-years, $50.75M (max TBD)CWS/OF Luis Robert Jr.
6-years, $50M (max $88M)CWS/OF Eloy Jimenez
6-years,…— Spotrac (@spotrac) March 31, 2026
Let’s think about this in concrete terms for a minute.
Suppose Wetherholt is a star, every year, beginning now. I’m not talking about a Pujolsian superstar, mind you. Just a perennial 4-WAR guy, and always healthy. Call him a Hall-Of-Very-Good kinda guy. How much dough would he get if the Birds went year-to-year?
For the first three years he’d make just a couple million bucks in total, of course, since the MLB compensation system is slanted against pre-arbitration talent. Then for his first year in arbitration, he’d get roughly 40% of his free agent market value — and in his 2nd arby season, 60%, and for his third and final arbitration season, approximately 80% of full value. This 40-60-80 estimate of arbitration payouts is pretty well time-tested, I believe.
Now, I’d say a 4-WAR guy would be worth perhaps $25MM on the open market. But let’s be generous (and allow something for inflation) and go with $30MM.
So based on this formula, JJ would receive 40% of $30MM in his first arby season ($12MM), then $18MM, then $24MM. In other words, if he’s a star — beginning right now, which is expecting a heckuvalot for any rookie — every season and never gets hurt, he’ll make 12 + 18 + 24 + a couple million pre-arb, for a grand total of just under 60 million for his 6 pre-free agency seasons. I would say that this extreme immediate production combined with six years of extreme good health, is a *highly* unlikely outcome. Probably 95th-99th percentile.
So. So if I’m offering Wetherholt a long-term contract, it’d be something like six years for $40MM guaranteed, with 2 or 3 club options after that, at $20MM each.
Well, it would get ahead of any bellyaching over the service time lost if he gets rookie of the year votes.
Seattle gave Emerson 8 years and $95M. I would imagine that JJ gets betters that. I’ll say 8 years, $110M. $60M guaranteed plus two options at $25M each.
I am not surprised by this development. As I mentioned yesterday the Brewers are supposedly giving $50M to a guy who has just barely surpassed AA.
Not only will Wetherholt get an extension, which negates the silly argument the Cards should have started him in AAA this year, I expect Burly, Herrera, and Winn to receive extensions within the next 12 months, unless there is a prolonged work stoppage.
The Cardinals are going to start locking up their long term core. Another benefit is that it could help them prepare to be ready for a potential salary floor.
Paul DeJong II? 😀
Seems way too early to talk extension for JJ. Love the looks of this kid, but man, you are taking on a lot of risk. Still sometimes you have to do that.
The Cardinals have generally been way too risk averse and taken safe moves which is why they have been a middling team the last decade. You need to take some risks to get rewards. No as GM was so risk averse.
Dejong wasn’t that highly regarded as a prospect and did well for himself with his deal. Most of his value came early on and he wasn’t really able to adjust much to the game after those first few years. Or at least he was not able to adjust after the beginning of most seasons, which he always seemed to start hot.
Wetherholt is a different sort, IMO. His floor is probably 2-3 WAR, or an above average 2B. The ceiling is probably not super super high, but you never really know. Look at guys like Lindor and Yelich as examples of players who didn’t light the world on fire to start (more decent hitters with solid to good defense) and then just got better and better until they were MVP level.
What are the chances the system will produce another real good second baseman in the next 5 years?
What are the chances opponents figure out how to pitch and defense Wetherholt to limit the damage he can do?
What is DeWit’s tolerance for eating contract compared to that of other owners who are signing guys right out of the gate?I’m not feeling like JJ might cave in like DeJong. More likely settle in as a scrappy second baseman with gap power. Hopefully he will not be streaky so he can stick at leadoff. I think the front office really wants a face of the franchise to promote and might be thinking they can create one. If so, it will probably blow up in their face if production can’t keep up with the hype. I think they should play him for 4 or 5 years and then decide what to do based upon what he is doing and what else we got at the time.
Weatherholt has been decent not great. I like the kid but nothing so far has cemented him as someone who should get a long term contract. They will still be able to give him that after the season if its warranted. Of course if he turns outstanding then his value might increase at that time but may go lower. I guess tbe team is betting his value is gonna increase which is why they are trying to deal now.
Per Fangraphs, Paul DeJong generated a bit over $50MM in value for the Birds from 2018-2023, and was paid $22.5MM by the DeWitts. So as profoundly disappointing as his career turned out, it’s still not a hand-wringing type of contract that the Cardinals signed him to.
Anyway, as everyone here probably knows, Paulie never had anything remotely resembling the strikezone command that Wetherholt has exhibited. DeJong in AA had a poor 44/156 BB/K ratio. In AAA, it was barely better, at 36/117. (As a cautionary tale, DeJong would be a pretty good fit for Gorman or Walker, however.)
Wetherholt’s plate discipline meanwhile has been strong all along. An 82/82 BB/K in college, and 88/88 in the minors. Nice consistency, huh?
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Personally, I’d prefer to see someone like Winn or Herrera get a lengthy contract before JJ. Masyn & Ivan are just 24 and 25, respectively, and have in my opinion already established themselves as above average big leaguers. I think that JJ is going to be real good. Those guys ARE real good.
I wonder if the looming CBA negotiations are a factor in this league-wide deluge of extensions. It’s no secret the owners want a salary cap and the owners probably understand that they need to give something up in order to get it. Perhaps they’re willing to allow players to reach free agency earlier in their career in exchange for a cap? This could explain the recent gold rush surrounding early (and extremely early) career extensions this season – the owners could be buying out free agency years on their young stars at arbitration year rates. This is all speculation, but I’m just trying to make sense of these extensions (particularly the Cooper Pratt extension, which strikes me as the most odd).
LetsGoBlues, I have been thinking the same exact thing. You can’t tell me it is a coincidence that all of these cheapskate teams like the A’s, Pirates, and Brewers are throwing money at these players in diapers just as the new CBA talks start up. It is a combination of PR moves, getting ready for a salary floor and possibly getting ready for eliminating a year of control like you mentioned.
I can see the Cards going 7 years/$105 for JJ.
The Tigers locked up McGonigle to a 8 year $150 contract. I agree with Gscottar that teams like know if something like maybe a service time change that will be negotiabated next CBA.
Even without a major CBA change the Cards will hopefully soon lock up Wetherholt. Wetherholy will be great marketing for the team and he has a high floor of being at least a decent MLB player with his skill set and the team could save a good amount of be does perform well. I want to see the new regime take some risks instead of like the prior Mr. Risk Averse Mo.
I like the way they structured the desk for McConigle. It starts next year so they basically locked him up for 9 years buying out 3 free agent years. It also helps the team spread the cost out over the heads more so he has a lower salary than he would via FA.
Cards should look to do the same with Wetherholt. Especially with as much money as they have off the books right now they can pay more up front and have a lower payroll down the road when they hopefully have a collection of good players who stayed in town and gotta extensions.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/04/tigers-kevin-mcgonigle-extension.html
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