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Each Spring I like to delve into the payroll rankings from Cot’s. I usually wait until March but why not now? There will probably be some more signings and trades before opening day but this is a good snapshot.
Studying payrolls can be complex because there is a 40 man payroll and CBT payroll , both with beginning of year and end of year numbers. You also have outlets like Cots, Fangraphs, Sportrac, etc…and they calcualte and list things differently. I prefer Cot’s myself.
In the past I have always focused on 40 man payroll because it was more indicative of expenses for that particular season however I have now shifted to the CBT payroll. Why? Mainly because of the influx of salary deferrments. The CBT accounts for deferrals much better so it makes the comparisons more apples to apples. Of course it also includes things like player benefits, pre-arb bonus pool, IL expenses, etc… It also is more geared to AAV’s so it doesn’t always account for front loaded and backloaded contracts. Nevertheless I am now a CBT convert.
I will post the MLB CBT rankings from Cots then a listing of the Cardinals payroll by roster spot.
2026 CBT Payroll Rankings (Tax Threshold is $244M)
1. Dodgers- 402.1
2. Mets- 376.6
3. Yankees- 335.5
4. Phillies- 316.3
5. Blue Jays- 304.1
6. Red Sox- 265.8
7. Padres- 265.7
8. Braves- 258.8
9. Cubs- 240.5
10. Astros- 240.0
11. Tigers- 233.6
12. Giants- 227.0
13. Rangers- 204.9
14. Diamondbacks- 204.4
15. Angels- 193.8
16. Orioles- 188.7
17. Mariners- 186.5
18. Royals- 185.2
19. Reds- 152.4
20. A’s- 140.2
21. Rockies- 131.2
22. Brewers- 129.9
23. Twins- 128.2
24. Pirates- 115.5
25. Nationals- 114.2
26. Cardinals- 112.7
27. White Sox- 107.5
28. Guardians- 104.2
29. Rays- 97.8
30. Marlins- 79.32026 Cardinals CBT Payroll
(I’m not predicting the opening day roster. The numbers are more important than the names)
1. Dustin May- 12.5
2. Lars Nootbaar- 5.350
3. Jo Jo Romero- 4.260
4. Andre Pallante- 4.000
5. Ryan Stanek- 3.500
6. Alec Burleson 3.300
7. Nolan Gorman- 2.655
8. Matthew Liberatore- 2.260
9. Masyn Winn- .792
10. Jordan Walker- .792
11. Ivan Herrera- .792
12. Riley O’Brien- .792
13. Pedro Pages- .792
14. Kyle Leahy- .792
15. Ryan Fernandez- .792
16. Victor Scott- .792
17. Jose Fermin- .792
18. Thomas Saggese- .792
19. Michael McGreevy- .792
20. Matt Svanson- .792
21. Jimmy Crooks- .792
22. Nathan Church- .792
23. JJ Wetherholt- .792
24. Richard Fitts- .792
25. Hunter Dobbins- .792
26. Justin Bruihl- .792Sonny Gray- 5.401
Willson Contreras- .750
Nolan Arenado- 26.611
IL Expenses- 5.544
40 Man Players- 2.669
Pre-Arb Bonus Pool- 1.666
Player Benefits- 18.000TOTAL- 112.722
The CBT numbers for Gray, Contreras, and Arenado use a formuala with AAV’s and credits. Don’t ask me to explain it. ha!
Hat-Tip for doing the work again GS.
So it looks like around 56mil on those 26man players listed for 2026.
If we were in a “death spiral”, its now a full blown raptor plunge.
A couple days ago I set a over/under at 110mil. Depending on JoJo’s salary, it could be either. The deadline selloff is not included yet either, but that’s what this thread can help monitor.
Thanks JJ. Since I work in accounting I can’t help but get into payroll numbers. ha!
We now have the lowest payroll in the NL Central.
The anti-Cardinals are in Philly.
The Phillies still owe Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Taijuan Walker, and Nick Castellanos $810 million dollars if you include this year.
Every player is 33-years-old or older.
Dave Dombrowski.
— Philly Nation (@Philly__Nation) April 18, 2026
The Phillies are going to be horrible in a few years when those guys are older. But I can’t fault them for their strategy as they have a really good roster with a rotation of aces and nah as well try to maximize their odds right now.
Dombrowski has done that everywhere he has been. Detroit, Boston, and now Philadelphia. He is a classic win-now PBO with little regard for sustainability, which is probably why he doesn’t stay in one place very long.
So “Philly Nation” is souring on Dave Dombrowski, I guess. Well, that’s understandable; the team is under .500 and it’s nearly the 20th of April!
With apologies for turning the thread away from the paltry Cardinal payroll, let’s look at Dombrowski and Philadelphia a bit. Immediately prior to Dombrowski’s arrival in Philly, the Fightins missed the playoffs for nine consecutive seasons. Didn’t even have a winning record in any of those nine campaigns either.
Since DD arrived in late 2020, they’ve had only winning records, they’ve made the playoffs each of the past four seasons, and they won the N.L. pennant in 2022. (Hard to win Senior Circuit pennants with Dave Roberts’ Dodgers around.)
Going back to his Boston and Detroit tenures, Dombrowski’s clubs have made the playoffs 11 of the past 14 seasons. If you hire Dombrowski, he wins. Payroll goes up, and he wins and he wins. He’s the anti-Chaim.
As for the residents of Philadelphia: the only thing worse than a fool, is a phool.
We need a LF…. Any bad contracts the Cards could take on? One of Vic and Scott need to be moved March 25 or so.
Torres for MVP and OBP leader!
Dombrowski is a short term sugar high. He destroys farm systems by trading away top prospects then he signs free agents to bloated contracts. It results in a few winning years followed by a downturn.
In Detroit he had an owner who was desperate to win before his death so the owner sanctioned Dombrowski to spend wildly.
In Boston he built some winning teams but messed up the farm system so bad that he was replaced by Chaim Bloom to try to clean up the mess.
In Philly he is doing the same thing. This won’t end well for the Phillies.
I think if you want to buy a team and win a trophy, Dombrowski is a good choice. He always gets let go in the end though. My guess is Our Bill is less interested in trophies and more interested in rebuilding a sustainable money gusher.
The size of the inequity gap is amazing.
The Dodgers shattered MLB’s spending record at $515 million in 2025, 7 times the lowest payroll by @ronaldblum for @AP_Sports: The Dodgers shattered Major League Baseball’s… https://t.co/GlVk82Br4k
— New York BBWAA (@NYBBWAA) April 16, 2026
I am still of the opinion that most of the anger directed at the Dodgers is because they spend big AND WIN. If they were spending big and losing no one would care.
Case in point are the Mets. They currently have a CBT payroll of $379M and a projected tax of $124M for a total payroll expense of $503M! Where is the outrage? There isn’t any because the Mets missed the playoffs last year and are currently riding a 10 game losing streak while sitting in last place.
If that Blue Jays base runner had been a split second faster to home plate in Game 7 last year we wouldn’t be discussing the Dodgers either.
the Mets missed the playoffs last year and are currently riding a 10 game losing streak while sitting in last place.
update: 11 game losing streak.
Very early returns suggest if the Cards wanted to become more like Cleveland and Tampa Bay, then they are on the right track.
Bottom 5 MLB Tax Payrolls and their current records
26. Cardinals, $111M, 13-8
27. White Sox, $108M, 8-14
28: Rays, $108M, 12-9
29. Guardians, $87M, 13-10
30. Marlins, $81M, 10-12 https://t.co/oXPXRu0us4— Spotrac (@spotrac) April 20, 2026
Of course people don’t like the Dodgers more than the Mets. The Dodgers are standing in the way of their own team and preventing their moment of actually winning a World Series. The Mets can’t even get above .500. They aren’t in anyone’s way. It’s a loss of fan experience – thus the angst.
So yes, it is about winning. But it is also about how they are winning. Winning with access to resources that few others have. It’s like the U.S. fighting Iran. It’s not a fair fight. No one expects anyone to beat the Dodgers. They could. It’s possible. But it’s stacked against them. Sure, someone else in the field might beat the Dodgers. There are a few other legit contenders and some others with long odds. But the smallest 10 markets have like a .5% chance . . . combined. It sucks for those fans.
The Dodgers have a huge competitive advantage over most teams. That’s a fact. Will they do something about it?
Per Fangraphs, the chances of the Dodgers winning the World Series is 26%. The bottom 20 MLB teams’ chances combined are just 24.1%. (StL is among them at 0.3%.)
Even with all of the money in the world you still need to know how to spend it and how to develop players. The difference in performance between the Dodgers and Mets is absolutely staggering considering they are equals financially.
Absolutely true GScottar. The Dodgers have done a phenomenal job.
Baseball has always had haves and have nots. It’s expected that big markets will have an advantage. It’s actually fun for fans of other teams to mock them when they fail. The Mets have provided lots of that lately and over the years. The Dodgers are really the first one to fully take advantage of their luxuries since the Yankees did so in the 20’s. There have been short runs, but no true dynasties.
I think fans can both respect the heck out of the Dodgers, envy them for what they’ve done, and also hate them for everything they now have all at the same time. And it’s not because it’s unfair. Baseball has always had an element of unfairness. It’s because the Dodgers have done so well with everything that it is now obscenely unfair. Brian’s citation of Fangraphs odds on the Dodgers winning the World Series at 26% is both extraordinarily high and also seems like it maybe should be even a bit higher – as hard as that is to believe.
I imagine some of this inequity will be addressed in the upcoming CBA or at least there will be an attempt to. But my point all along has been that being a wealthy team doesn’t guarantee you anything. You still have to make good decisions although you do have a much larger margin of error.
I don’t envy the Dodgers nor do I dislike them because of their success because I have never bought into the theory that their success was only because of their checkbook. They do a lot of things well and I respect that. They annually have a top 5 rated farm system despite usually picking last in the draft. Think about that for a minute.
I will also go on record as saying I don’t think the Dodgers will win the WS this year. They came within a fraction of a second of losing it last year. They are not unbeatable.
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