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JJ Wetherholt and the Cardinals have had extension talks, but they haven't progressed, says @Ken_Rosenthal. pic.twitter.com/jpPwqSzvkm
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) April 14, 2026
Part of me is glad that talks with Wetherholt haven’t progressed. Actually, all of me is glad.
Most of the lengthy contracts being signed now by inexperienced major leaguers are somewhere between irresponsible and quite destructive. Except for Milwaukee’s deal with Cooper Pratt. Leave it to the Brewer front office to be smarter than everyone else. (The McGonigle deal is moronic; the club is assuming 95-99% of the risk. Only way the team saves money here is if McGonigle becomes a perennial All-Star who plays 155 games a year for the next decade.)
At, say, 50 or 60 million bucks, the Cardinals can afford to get it wrong, kinda. But not at $100MM, $120MM, or more. And that’s likely what Wetherholt’s agent is asking for, given the current panicky climate among some ownership groups.
Im also glad they arent progresing. These big deals generally go one way or the other. The team either more greatly benefits meanig the player came out somewhat the loser like with pujols first big deal. Or the player greatly more benefits meaning the team comes out the loser cause its paying big money for a player thats not giving that in return either because they didnt pan out that great or got injury prone. Let weatherholt set his own worth.
I don’t think it’s panicky at all. Something is going to change with the new CBA and smart teams are getting ahead of it. What exactly the change will be, I’m not sure…free agency at 5 years, salary cap/floor…teams that react slowly (like the Cardinals traditionally do) will be left to scramble then. I’d rather have the gamble be that JJ Wetherholt will be worth $20M+ in 8 or 9 years than have to sign a bunch of Dustin Mays or Kyle Gibsons just to add payroll (which will be the going rate for those guys by then, in all likelihood).
The Cardinals and other mid market teams better think about what happens if the long term contract guy doesn’t pan out. For the Cardinals it means trying to win and sell tickets with an underperformer in the everyday lineup while soaking up an outsize chunk of the payroll and no way out for years. For the Cardinals it doesn’t mean eating it and trying again.
I think I’d wait a couple of years, at least 1 full year before committing to something long term.
Right now he has about 3 weeks under his belt.
Also, does Milwaukee do this sort of thing?
Milwaukee does do this sort of thing and locked up Chourio before he debuted and they locked up a guy earlier this year that hadn’t played in AAA.
It is interesting to me fans here don’t want a player extended as most of the time I see other fan bases ecstatic that their home grown players were locked up and their ownership committed to spending some money rather than just letting them immediately go when they are FA. There is definitely risk, but there is also a lot of upside. It saves the team a significant amount of money buying our some FA years if Wetherholt becomes an All Star like most scouting services believe he can be.
The money amount wouldn’t cripple the team by any means even he Wetherholt was just an averish 2B or even slightly below average. $12-15 million a year gets wasted easily by the FO every year and it would be better spent on a young talent with some upside out of the deal.
Also, does Milwaukee do this sort of thing?
Milwaukee definately does this type of thing. Not only Chourio but they recently signed Cooper Pratt to an 8 year/$50.75M deal plus options. Pratt currently has 48 PA’s at the AAA level and zero PA’s at the MLB level.
I’m not saying the Brewers are infallible but their track record of making smart decions and doing more with less is pretty darn good. Probably the best in MLB actually. People that bet against them do so at their own peril. Ask the Cubs.
I think our fans are scarred by the Paul DeJong fiasco. I totally get that but we have to hope that our current front office is better at internal evaluation.
Only time will tell what the right answer ends up being. As Bob said you put a deal together now and you take on a lot of risk. I think clubs mitigate the injury part of the risk with insurance, but poor performance ala DeJong is something no insurer would take on.
If I am Wetherholt think I would “bet on myself” and not sign a big deal now and wait until the next CBA is done.
“It is interesting to me fans here don’t want a player extended…the money amount wouldn’t cripple the team by any means…”
I am violently opposed to a Griffin/McGonigle type of contract being offered to Wetherholt. But that does NOT mean that I’m against JJ receiving a lengthy contract extension, not at all.
As detailed in a previous comment in this thread, if Wetherholt’s first six years are a pristine parade of 4-WAR star-quality seasons and flawless health, he’ll make roughly $55MM in total. So offer him approximately 75% of that right now ($40MM), but with two or three club options at the end. Options at, say 20-22 million bucks apiece.
We all know how badly a Griffin/McGonigle contract *could* backfire. Look at what happened in the first three or four seasons of Dylan Carlson or Nolan Gorman or, yes, Jordan Walker. (I’m extremely curious to see what Jordan Walker gets in arbitration next year, if he hits .280 with 35-40 homers this season. I don’t think it’ll be much, since 2024/25 were so dismal.)
Anyway, the only position player since Pujols who would’ve worked out to the club’s advantage by signing a large early contract, would be Matt Carpenter. That’s it, he’s the only one. Donovan woulda been okay, too, but just okay (depending on the dollars involved, obviously).
Modest, Brewer-style early deals are usually okay, even shrewd. But at $100M+, they’re foolhardy at best. Basically, the only way the Pirates & Tigers come out ahead on the Griffin/McGonigle deals is if those players become Hall Of Famers.
Bob, I’m unsure where you are getting your numbers from but they don’t match what ZIPs would do. For McGonigle, the Tigers still got a bargain on him as he was projected for 5 WAR seasons which at 8 years with 2 pre arb and 3 arb ZIPs projected him to be worth $190 mil. Still ahead for $40 million for the Tigers.
Hold That Tiger: Kevin McGonigle Gets a Record-Setting Extension
JJ was projected more around 3 WAR per season from the preseason projections which have probably gone up now with his very good glove so far and solid offensive showing. I’m not going to pretend to try to do the math, but he also would probably get a smaller contract than McGonigle but the Cards would have $10 of millions in excess on his median projected outcome.
Modest, Brewer-style early deals are usually okay, even shrewd. But at $100M+, they’re foolhardy at best. Basically, the only way the Pirates & Tigers come out ahead on the Griffin/McGonigle deals is if those players become Hall Of Famers.
The “only” way? I would beg to differ, Mr Reed. First, the Pirates would not have any shot to keep Griffin after his first 6 years, so they are already getting a chance to keep a very good to great player for multiple extra years. Add in the fan perception, merchandise, media, etc. The Tigers maybe could hold onto McGonigle after he becomes a free agent, but who knows at what price that would be?
Now, suppose one or the other wins a division title and makes the playoffs in a year that they otherwise wouldn’t have in those free agent years. How about they win a pennant? A World Series? There are so many factors that could skew things toward the team. Thankfully the game is not played on spreadsheets where every WAR has to be dotted and dollar has to be perfectly spent.
Now, go get JJ signed and have a core member locked up for the 2029 World Series champs, Chaim!
One reason to extend him that everyone is leaving out….
The Cards payroll could be less than 85M on the year. SPREAD IT OUT!! By 2029 when they don’t suck, they will need “dry powder” to use.
8yr/$110m with an option year, and spread it out to save the powder!
What he hopefully gets:
26-28 – 3M
29-31 – 50m
32-33 -60m
Option year -30mSpread the $110m over 8 – $30m paid now to his checking account, as a signing bonus then $10m over the next 8 years.
I’d take that all day and with May, Jojo, O’Brien, Noot?? traded at 1/3 of their salary moved it is beyond realistic to “create long term value/opportunities”.
ChiTown that was one of my reasons as well. The Tigers did that with McGonigle and for the Cards they have such a low current payroll and for next year they could eat some of the cost up front to make Wetherholts cost cheaper down the road to have more talent in the roster.
Ironically if a salary floor is implemented for next year the Cardinals will be needing a larger contract or two to stay compliant. Thankfully for them they will still have some Arenado contract remaining in 2027 to pad their CBT number.
If the Cardinals need to pad their payroll numbers next year, they could sign a veteran free agent to an over-priced, one year contract. I’m sure there will be someone who could fill a need.
On Wetherholt, I am closer to Bob’s thinking. Anything approaching $100 million is an extreme overpay. I like the thought of getting him locked in for a few seasons beyond free agency but it has to be team friendly. There is no guarantee that he will be a perennial all star so why pay him that kind of money.
For comparison, Donovan after 4 years will have made $10 million. Julio Rodriguez after 5 years will have made just under $60 million. I think somewhere in the neighborhood of $80 for 8 years is the absolute tops the contract should be. It should also give him more in the early years than he would get in the normal, year-to-year contract process. Less in the later years. That would give the team the opportunity to keep overall payroll in check while allowing a better team to be built and kept.
“Bob, I’m unsure where you are getting your numbers from but they don’t match what ZIPs would do. For McGonigle, the Tigers still got a bargain on him as he was projected for 5 WAR seasons which at 8 years with 2 pre arb and 3 arb ZIPs projected him to be worth $190 mil. Still ahead for $40 million for the Tigers.”
Thanks for the response. Let’s examine these numbers.
I said the Tiger ownership only comes out ahead if McGonigle is a Hall Of Famer.
If McGonigle averages 5 WAR per year for his first 8 years, that’s EXACTLY what a Hall Of Famer looks like. So I don’t see how the ZiPS numbers contradict my opinion re McGonigle.Or put it this way: I would cheerfully give anyone here 3-1 odds on McGonigle putting up 40 WAR over the next 8 years. Because I’d say his chances are between 10 and 15 percent. To tally 40 WAR in his first 8 years, a player must be really great and really healthy, over and over. McGonigle might do it, but it ain’t half likely. (I’d put Griffin’s chances a bit better, maybe 20-22%.)
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“Add in the fan perception, merchandise, media, etc. The Tigers maybe could hold onto McGonigle after he becomes a free agent, but who knows at what price that would be?”
“Now, suppose one or the other wins a division title and makes the playoffs in a year that they otherwise wouldn’t have in those free agent years. How about they win a pennant? A World Series? There are so many factors that could skew things toward the team.”
As for the first part, if McGonigle is good and the team is good for his first six seasons, the fan perception and merchandise will follow. And if McGonigle walks after six years in Detroit, the team will not face substantive backlash from their fans as long as they publicly let it be known that they offered their young star a highly respectable offer — not unlike the Cardinals did with Pujols after the 2011 season.
As for the second part, if the Tigers win something important with McGonigle, after his first six years expired, it will be because of a lot of reasons. Individual players invariably get too much credit & blame in baseball. There’s no QB, no point guard. Compared to an average (i.e., 2 WAR) MLB player, K.M. would shift the win total by just a few more games per year.
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“I think somewhere in the neighborhood of $80MM for 8 years for Wetherholt is the absolute tops the contract should be. It should also give him more in the early years than he would get in the normal, year-to-year contract process. Less in the later years.”
Took the words right outtta my mouth, Forschy. Guaranteed dough of either $40MM for 6 years, $60MM for 7, or $80MM for 8. And then in each case, club option(s) through his 9th or 10th season. Options at somewhere between $25MM and 30MM per annum.
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