Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
LaCardFan
Funny how you throw out a conditional statement without stating the condition. You stated that O’Neal would have beat Benintendi in 2018 if he had the same number of plate appearances. But he would have had to continue at the same rate to do it. There is no guarantee of that.
2020 was a injury year for Benintendi, which makes him available at a discount. Jack Flaherty has 3 years of control but they will not be cheap. The last year of control is likely to cost us %20M+ assuming Flaherty pitches well over the next 2 years.
The Cardinals don’t like to have their payroll structure questioned, (plus they have a boatload of pitching) so I think that they may trade him for an outfielder who has some known upside.
They may have assured themselves a Divisional Championship by acquiring Arenado, but I doubt they get anywhere in the post season with O’neal, Bader, Carlson, Thomas, and Williams roaming the outfield. I hope I am wrong but with the likes of San Diego, Los Angelos, New York, Philadelphia. and Atlanta I just don’t see it.
I know I can’t change your mind, so we will just have to see how it all plays out.
JANUARY 12, 7:23pm: A rival executive told Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that he will be “shocked” if the Red Sox don’t trade Benintendi before the end of the weekend.
4:26pm: The Red Sox have discussed Benintendi with more teams than the ones mentioned below, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. One of those clubs “has discussed trading big-league pitching depth for Benintendi,” Speier writes.
I discussed trading for Benintendi over on the Dexter Fowler traded thread and one poster thought I was trolling.
This article suggests that a team with MLB pitching depth had entered the market for benintendi. What team has MLB pitching depth and needs an outfielder? I think it’s the Cardinals.
I suggested CM or JF. The reason is CM has a large contract and JF’s contract is going to get big in a hurry. In fact, he is probably going to take the cardinals to arbitration and I don’t think we will be able to sign him to a long term deal.
Benintendi is a 2nd year arb player (with 2 years of eligibility remaining). He had a bad year last year which is why he is available. I think it makes sense to trade Flaherty for Benintendi. But if Boston prefers Martinez, by all means Trade him for Benintendi instead.
These deals are not meant to be straight-up deals. I will leave the final details up to the Cardinals to figure out, but for the poster who thought I was trolling, I am not.
This also ezplains why the Cards are after Odorizzi.
After we sign Odorizzi, we can trade JF or CM to Boston for Benentendi. I’m guessing it will take JF (and maybe more).
Nigel,
What makes you say that Nishikawa “Has So Taguchi written all over him”? If anything, he has
Ichiro Suzuki written all over him (JMO).The left-handed-hitting Nishikawa batted .296/.419/.388. He also swiped 37 bags in 42 tries. He’s posted an OBP of .378 or better in each of the past four seasons while striking out in 16.5 percent of his plate appearances against a 14.3 percent walk rate.
Overall, dating back to 2017, Nishikawa is a .291/.397/.401 hitter through 2433 plate appearances. He’s stolen 144 bases with an 87.8 success rate in that time. Nishikawa has three stolen base titles, three Gold Gloves in the outfield and a pair of All-Star nods in NPB.
The NPB is not that far below MLB. Nishikawa’s consistency shows that he can (and does) adjust. He will find an MLB home and become more than So Taguchi, IMO.
Jager
Cesar Hernandez is trending downward (2018 and 2019 0PS+ below 100). 2020 was up to 106, but I attribute that to the shorter season.
I think I would pass on him for reasons stated and he is over 30. Plus,the Cards have better choices, ie: Kim and Nishikawa who are both younger, have higher ceilings (IMO), and will be cheaper in 2021).
Thanks for your feedback StLcard25.
Based on their history of good, consistent production, (Nishikawa 9 years and Kim 5 years) I believe they are good targets.
I agree with you on Kim. He has a higher ceiling, IMO. His numbers are gaudy, Francisco Lindor like.
But I am nearly as high on Nishikawa. BA nearly .300, OBP almost .400, and a stolen base success rate of 86.5% (33+ steal attempts per yr). 9 yrs in the Japanese League, and still under 29 yrs old.
Hey Jager,
First of all, thank you for responding. It’s appreciated.
Second, Nishikawa can bat lead-off. His career BA is nearly .300 and his OBP is close to .400. He is also a base-stealer, a very good one. He has almost 10 years of data to support those numbers. What they do with the outfield to get them all sufficient AB’s will (as they always say) work itself out.
Third, and last, Kim can play 3B or 2B, and he has 20-homerun power. Also, he is just 25 and already has 7 years of data to support his numbers. I think of him as a mini Francisco Lindor.
Neither of them will be cheap in the long run (depending an one’s definition of cheap), but both can be had for a small amount for 2021. I don’t talk about contracts on this website, since so many posters rag on my estimates. But I will say that the 2 of them will get less (for 2020) than what they saved on KW, IMO.
Well, it seems like most posters (and media) seem to be talking about adding an outfielder and an infielder. So I just listed an alternative for each. I like Sugano too, I just don’t believe that it is feasible. Adding Nishikawa and See (and keeping Yadi and Waino) is probably all (if not more than), they will be able to do.
I don’t know what the Cards plans are any more than anyone else. But if they are looking for an outfielder and an infielder, then I suggest that they look at Haruki Nishikawa and Ha Seung Kim.
Judging from the hype that they are getting, (practically none) I’m guessing that they could be signed for 3 – 5 million for 2021. Nishikawa a little less, and Kim a little more, imo.
Nishikawa is an on-base machine (think Ichiro). Kim has power. What am I missing?
I don’t know how the Cards can get all of their top prospects on to the 40 man roster, if they are intent on getting an OFer, they should take a look at Haruki Nishikawa, a LH hitting on-base guy. He is 29 and has a line of .286/.382/.396.
For 3B, I think DJ LeMahieu would be the best option.
They should also re-sign Wainwright, Molina, and Brad Miller.
But to do any of it, they need to get rid of some contracts (Martinez/Fowler/Carp). Of the three, Martinez is the one with the most value, while Carp and Fowler will require prospects thrown in.
Now, while we wouldn’t have a huge glamorous lineup, it would be an upgrade (mainly because of LeMahieu), and cost effective.
I expect the Cardinals to have a big September. It is just a gut feeling, but I think the roster expansions on September 1 will favor the Cardinals. I contend that their 40 man roster, from 26 to 40 is as strong or stronger than most other teams.
I am not sure how this could be accurately quantified. For one thing, the 40 man roster is constantly in flux. Plus, even if the same 40 players were on the roster all season long, it would still be somewhat arbitrary to assign 15 of the players to the bottom of the roster.
Never-the-less, the Cardinals have gotten a lot of help from their minor league system this year and I expect this to give them an advantage when rosters are expanded.
Pads…
Let me say, first of all; I am not and never was in the trade Carson Kelly camp. But, some posters have argued that Carson is ready to get started on his MLB career and his talent is being wasted. I’m not taking sides on that argument either. But, IF that (opinion) was the prevailing view within the organization, THEN I wouldn’t mind trading him for his replacement (Yadi’s heir) + 1 other (highly respected) prospect (or 2 lesser top 30 prospects).
I would be willing to trade Carson Kelly if we got a catcher with similar upside as Carson, but 2 or 3 years behind Carson. I don’t think TB would trade a boatload of prospects to get Carson Kelly, but they might give up Ronaldo Hernandez and one other prospect… but probably not Wander Franco (unless we added another significant prospect/player to the deal)
That is a no brainer imo gscott.
Martinez AND Carpenter both belong in the AL. Martinez can’t field ground balls and Carpenter can’t throw. I’m not even sure if Matt can still hit.
Problem is… no AL teams will give us anything (worthwhile) for either of them.Jager…
I don’t agree with you on most of your trade and free agent signing ideas, but you are SPOT ON with this post.
Brian.,.
Signing Hosmer and trading Carpenter may not upgrade the offense for 2018, but I don’t think it would be a downgrade either. The difference is in the $ and years (A few more dollars in 2018 and 2019, and a few extra years committed to 1B (beyond 2019).You pointed out (perhaps) the best reason to trade Carp. If he isn’t the 1B, then he creates a roster problem.
It seems to me, the real question is: Do they want to commit extra dollars over the next several years to first base in return for what we would get from Carpenter in a trade.
Brian…
I have no special insight. It is admittedly a gut feeling. But that gut feeling is based on some real factors. NJ315 summed it up pretty well for me. As for Brian Noonan’s comment, I believe Matt has trade value. I can image several teams having interest in Matt. KC would be in the market for a 1B. CO and maybe even the Yankee’s could have some interest in a veteran !B with 2 years of control.
I think if Eric Hosmer is signed, Matt Carpenter will be traded… either as a part of a larger deal, or for future trade depth.
Conner Greene is the Blue Jays 11th ranked prospect.
Does addition (of pitching)foretell subtraction (of pitching)in the near future (before opening day).
14Nyquis…
I agree with you 100% on Pham. I think he is going to surprise a lot of people, maybe even me. The more I think about it the more I can envision Pham putting up numbers comparable to Ozuna’s. Probably more strike-outs, but he has (imo) a chance to beat last years BA,OB, and maybe even SLG.
He has arrived and it has taken him a long time to get here. I see the fire… the determination in his eyes. He is probably thinking about his 3 arbitration years, knowing that, at his age, his chance to get that 1 big contract is still there, but time is precious and he can ill-afford significant DL time, much less poor production when healthy.
I also see a synergy developing in the outfield. I’m being to optimistic, but I see (in my crystal ball) 100 runs and 100 rbi’s for both Pham and Ozuna.
Back to who stays and who goes; Originally, I wanted to dump Fowler’s contract (mostly just to save money), but that was not going to happen. That leaves Grichuck, Bader, and O’Neil as the most desirable prospects/young, controllable players.
I like Grichuck a lot, but for me if they have to include a young, controllable OF to get a pitcher (Colome, Archer, other?) or a corner IF (McMahon, Rodgers, Other?). I know Rodgers is a
SS, but either he or DeJong could move over to 3B. COL probably wouldn’t want a OF. At least not as a centerpiece of a deal (although I do believe that Colorado would be good for Grich… and vice-versa). I’d part with O’Neil in the right deal.
