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Paul – They got Dobbins, Fajardo, and Aita for him. I have Fajardo as our number 3 best pitching prospect – he’s at least top 5. Aita has had a good season as a starter as well, but probably projects as an up and down starter or reliever long term. Dobbins is the team’s current up and down starter. They also got the Red Sox to take most of Contreras’ remaining salary. A pretty fair deal all around.
KCB – I’ve been the low man on Hence for 3 seasons now. I actually wanted him traded away when he was at peak value in ‘23. I have thought and still think he could end up as a solid bullpen option but it’s getting a bit more dicey on that happening. I’m ok with keeping him with that sole focus in mind.
If we didn’t have a hole at 3B, I’d probably try to trade Gorman for anything we can get just to clear a roster spot. So to do that, we need to trade for some kind of third base option.
We could also use a true CF option because again, no one is coming up soon unless they can fix Victor Scott. Maybe we can get a decent AAA guy with some promise in a trade?
We have a problem right now with our roster in that 3 positions are being held by guys who we are just hoping they find a way to regain some promise. That’s Hence, Gorman, and Scott. They’ve all lost nearly all of their once previous trade value so now it’s just down to hoping something suddenly clicks but the results have been very rough at AAA.
With Scott, he’s young enough still. Plus, the team doesn’t have another real CF option to backup Church so I think you just hope you can fix his swing.
With Gorman and Hence, I have no idea what to do. It’s a problem and not one with a good solution.
To me, Blaze Jordan is that right-handed bat that can platoon some with Burly, DH some, and play a little 3B. However, since we don’t have a real third baseman, he’s playing there regularly. That seems to be the player we should be looking for in a trade – an up and coming third baseman unless they think Jesus Baez will be ready by sometime next season.
Ok. I will play. You will notice a few huge differences in some guys I either like much better than others and at least 2 that I don’t. I didn’t list any current mlb roster guys other than Rajcic because they all should be about out of rookie eligibility.
Raniel Rodriguez
Matthews
Franklin
Josh Baez
Fajardo
Doyle
Bernal
Hjerpe
Cijntje
CondonKuhns
Gurevitch
Peete
Jesus Baez
Maniscalso
Molina
Mautz
Henderson
Roby
MitchellGastellum
Dos Santos
Aita
Ferraro
Kennedy
Padilla
Brayden Davis
C Davis
Lin
Deniel OrtizMiguel Hernandez
Randall
Cho
Williamson
Dohm
Odle
Graham
Winquest
Rincon
J FloresPena
Clarke
Prieto
E Luna
Brandt Thompson
Campos
Ledbetter
Richardson
Rajcic
HoneymanSince I did the 21 pitchers, here are the hitters acquired via trade since the ’23 deadline:
Sammy Hernandez – Solid numbers but has essentially become a backup catcher in an organization full of catching prospects.
Thomas Saggese – Has been an up and down guy between Memphis & St. Louis. Mostly utility depth at this point.
Cesar Prieto – Aside from a few at bats in the MLB, he’s been almost solely at Memphis for a few years now. Defense has improved some, but his calling card is still a good bat.
Tommy Pham – We basically got one huge home run moment in his first at bat and then nothing else.
Jesus Baez – Has hit well and been promoted to Springfield and hit well again.
Blaze Jordan – Hit a ton at Memphis and now trying to make it in the big leagues.
Tai Peete – Hit well and then got hurt. Then came back for like one game and got hurt again. I think he’s about to start another rehab.
Colton Ledbetter – Started the first couple months hitting about as bad as one can hit, but has been mostly good since.
Brayden Smith – Started off slow after the trade, but has really come on lately and may find himself on a prospect list soon if he keeps it up.That’s 9 total position players compared to 21 pitchers. It’s actually more position players than I originally thought. This group has had more success than the pitching group especially because of Baez/Jordan/Peete making up 1/3 of this group and all performing well.
Pitchers acquired via trade since the 2023 deadline:
Matt Svanson – MLB
Sem Robberse – Coming off injury on rehab, but has mostly struggled in recent past.
Adam Kloffenstein – Released last season.
Tekoah Roby – On the IL until at least September.
John King – Contracted ended last season.
Zach Showalter – Released this season.
Eric Fedde – Traded away for cash last season.
Shawn Armstrong – Released 2 seasons ago soon after being acquired.
Nate Dohm – Struggled mightily this season, but lots better as of late.
Frank Ellisalt – Has been on the IL all season.
Skylar Hales – Has mostly struggled out of the pen at Memphis.
Mason Molina – Finally, a pitcher in this list who has had a very positive season.
Hunter Dobbins – Has been up and down between Memphis and St. Louis. Average results at Memphis.
Yhoiker Fajardo – Another success. He’s pitched really well and might be a top 3 pitcher in the organization. Certainly top 5.
Blake Aita – Average results for a few months followed by far more success lately.
Jack Martinez – Got promoted and then has been hit hard since.
Richard Fitts – Looked good very early on but out for the year on the IL.
Brandon Clarke – Just made his first appearance off the IL hitting 103 on the gun. Honestly, I think that was pretty stupid of him and that is part of the reason I don’t see him staying healthy. But maybe.
Patrick Galle – He looked incredible early and then got promoted and has been a disaster since.
Jurrangelo Cijntje – Has been mostly good. Got beat up last night in his first Memphis start though.
George Soriano – In the Majors and has been relatively successful.I told you there were a lot of guys they’ve added. This doesn’t even count the drafts or Minor League signings. You would think we would be seeing better results overall, but in general, they have so far been worse year over year.
After acquiring so many pitchers in trades and bringing in a development staff to coach them up, our Minor league pitching performance is quite concerning. That’s not the case on the offensive side where oddly enough the team really didn’t acquire much of anyone via trade aside from Jesus Baez and part of a season this year of Blaze Jordan. If we want the MLB team to get better over the long haul, then we really need to see some of those results show up in the Minors. In fairness, many of our prospect pitchers started the season on the IL with many of them coming back in the past 30 or so days. That may change how this looks by season’s end, but right now, it isn’t pretty.
By ERA, here is the team’s position in their respective leagues:
Memphis: 9 of 20
Springfield: 8 of 10
Peoria: 10 of 12
Palm Beach 7 of 10
FCL: 8 of 15
DSL: 44 of 51As you can see, the DSL team has been truly disastrous on the pitching side. I was actually surprised there were any teams that were worse. Their ERA is 7.58 collectively. Ugh.
On the hitting side, things are much rosier:
Memphis: 6 of 20
Springfield: 5 of 10
Peoria: 4 of 12
Palm Beach: 3 of 10
FCL: 13 of 15
DSL: 7 of 51The hitting side is more “good” than “great”, but we’ll take it.
Any other thoughts on why the pitching has been subpar? I know our starters have been significantly better than our relievers.
LA – I understand you don’t believe it. As I tried to explain before, it’s because he didn’t have a path to the Majors early in the season. Therefore, he took the time to tinker with his pitches which led to lots of walks, but helped him hone in the movement of those pitches. It was never the case that he suddenly became wild and couldn’t control his pitches. He had the ability to turn all that back on. He was just searching for better, more effective versions of his pitches that would help him achieve better long-term results rather than short term gains of just looking good. Now that things have changed and he has a legitimate shot of being called up, he is turning it on.
Either I’m a really lucky guesser who just happened to pick the perfect moment to post some crazy theory or I was right all along. The truth is a little in between. I watch Quinn pitch and often listen to his comments and I made my best inferences from that.
You are definitely not the only one Albert. I posted about how good I think Matthews really is when everyone got down on him and right before his current run of successful starts. I was astounded that people were starting to rate him in the teens or even as our 20th best prospect. Since then, he’s rattled off 5 or 6 great starts in a row. I absolutely think he’s ready. And, I think he might even be our best starter in the Majors today – depending on which version of Dustin May shows up.
I don’t know if I learned a lot from the baseball side, but that one was just fun to listen to. It’s interesting to hear the personal from our players. Thanks again Steffen!
Hey menk – I will answer for me. But I do think this is a great topic for Brian and Kyle.
I look at consistency (positive consistent production) over months of time as number one and showing the ability to completely dominate at a level (even if only for a game or two here and there) as my 2nd of two key traits. I keep those two in mind and weigh them. For me, Wetherholt coming into the season was going to be successful. I said that multiple times here. He had met both criteria hands down. I was also fairly confident about Gastellum and Blaze Jordan although I could be wrong on either. I was less sure about Crooks as he didn’t fully meet either of my criteria but was somewhat close on both. And for guys like Torres, he’s never really met my 2nd condition where he completely dominates anything so I would have expected him to struggle. This is why I’m skeptical about Dobbins, Mautz, Rincon, and Hansen, but fairly high on Baez and Matthews. Just my opinion though.
As we approach the trade deadline, I believe there are 11 possible Cardinals players who could reasonably be traded for various reasons. However, only 2 of them are super likely to go. Here are my thoughts:
Romero (95% chance) – Romero is a relatively effective lefty reliever, a commodity that is often desired at the deadline in which teams are willing to overpay for. He’s also in the final year of his deal. And, he’s replaceable with either Mautz or Hansen (or potentially someone we trade for). Consider these to be Romero’s final days as a Cardinal.
May (80% chance) – The only reason not to trade May is if you strongly believe in the Cardinals’ playoff odds against the Brewers, Dodgers, and Braves. May is in the final year of his contract and has proven to be a solid #2 starter about 75% of his outings (with some of those looking like a #1). Therefore, he’s a valuable trade asset and I don’t think Bloom will let that opportunity escape us.
Bruihl (50%) – Basically see what I put for Romero only he’s a little less effective. The two reasons his odds aren’t higher is that because he’s a little less effective, his value will be fairly low and the fact that the Cardinals have limited lefty reliever replacement options. They would almost need to get a left hander back in one of these deals (ala John King equivalent like they did in ’23) in order to trade Bruihl.
O’Brien (40%) – O’Brien is the exact kind of player that every single team will be looking for at the trade deadline. Closer experience. Years of control. Strikeout ability. The way the deadline works, teams may fight over him and shoot his value well over what he might normally be worth. If that happens, I can see Bloom pulling the trigger and getting the assets. The downside is the loss of a closer, which we don’t otherwise have as a replacement part. It also severely hampers our playoff odds.
Nootbaar (40%) – Nootbaar has one year of control remaining after this season. He’s come back fairly strong from his injury and will likely see some teams wanting to trade for him. The Cardinals have a few viable players for LF in Torres and Velasquez plus the option of bringing up Josh Baez. I still think there’s a good chance the Cardinals will want to see Nootbaar play through the end of the season and then consider trading him in the offseason, but if the deal is right, they should and will trade him now.
Velasquez (25%) – Teams are often looking for a bench bat with some thump, like when we added Tommy Pham. Velasquez fits that description. He has some years of control but if someone is willing to overpay for him, there’s really no reason not to trade him away.
Stanek (20%) – These odds would probably be higher if Stanek was more consistent. Still, he’s a power bullpen arm who can get strikeouts so someone may be willing to give us something decent for him. Plus, other than a mildly expensive option year, he’s not signed for next season.
Now we get into the real low odds section, but I’m saying there’s a chance:
Fermin (15%) – Fermin has proven to be a capable bench bat. He’s nearing arbitration. The Cardinals don’t really need him and if a team is willing to give something up for him, he could be traded.
Herrera (15%) – I know. Most of you don’t like this one. But I said this at the end of last season when he was much hotter and I thought they maybe should have traded him then. Herrera just isn’t a catcher because he can’t throw runners out. He clogs up the DH spot. He’s a good hitter, but maybe not as great a hitter as some thought he might suddenly be. Plus we already have too many catchers on the team. Herrera could bring back a nice haul of players. Probably not what we could have gotten last offseason, but still a good amount. It’s worth exploring.
Crooks (10%) – Crooks has lots of years of control and wouldn’t even be listed here if we didn’t already have Leo Bernal in the wings. Bernal is having a very good season at Memphis and could probably be called up to replace Crooks and we wouldn’t lose much of a beat. The issue here is that Crooks hasn’t done anything to increase his value at the MLB level so I’m not sure we would get the kind of deal we might want to get, which is why I gave this one very low odds.
Pallante (10%) – Teams need starting pitchers. You see all the injuries. Pallante has proven himself to be solid starter. He’s also going to be Arbitration 2 eligible next season, which starts to make him a little more expensive. I gave this one very low odds though because if May is traded, it would be hard to lose a second starter. That means 2 of Matthews, Dobbins, and Mautz end up in the big league rotation with almost no one in reserve.
Willie, my bet would be the tech geeks cost more on average than the experienced scouts but I don’t know for sure. I’m pretty certain it’s not about saving costs. It’s about getting better performance. And they are doing just that. That’s why everyone has started doing it to some degree. Hitters swing harder and quicker than they ever have. Pitchers consistently pitch harder and with far more movement than they ever have. The game has changed for better or worse. Some things are still very much the same. But much is different.
Slightly surprised by Rivas but I think Trey Richardson’s recent climb has pushed aside Rivas as the super emergency depth SS guy. Rivas was just never able to consistently hit or get on base. At best, he was a fringe utility prospect.
Koperniak lost his luster the past 2 seasons and it is pretty clear Savacool just isn’t any good at the upper levels. I’m not as surprised by these two. Savacool never got into my top 50 list. Koperniak certainly did at one point.
I don’t typically care one iota about the home run derby or All-Star game but watching the theatrics of Walker’s night play out given all the pains and struggles he has gone through was warming to my heart. Good for him personally. Now let’s hope he can continue thumping baseballs with regularity when the season continues.
Willie – there is no reason to bring science into the discussion about how large the world is. We should just rely on the sailors who have sailed around it to tell us.
Seriously, I realize how science seems to take some of the “game” out of the game. There’s a really good reason every team uses it though. It is just a better way to measure talent. You can absolutely screw it up. Data can always take you down the wrong path if you aren’t looking at it in the right way or collecting enough of it. But if you do a good job of collecting and analyzing it, it’s going to bring far better results than the qualitative analysis of several scouts sitting around a table giving their own projections. Just as in my world example above, science can tell you exactly how big the world is even if that scientist could never dream of having the skill or will to sail around it. That doesn’t make either the scientist or sailor better or worse than the other. It just means if they each harness their talents together, they can get a better result in the end. That’s what advanced analytics is trying to bring to the game of baseball and teams that do it well win more and make more money.
I think it comes down to risk/reward for O’Brien. If someone else values him very highly (higher than us), trade him because relievers have a lot of risk and relievers over 31 have even more. But don’t trade him just to get anything we can get – he’s not like Romero where you might as well trade him given his contract will be up.
Gscottar – I disagree on Gray. It’s hard to trade him again (I’m sure you meant May!). You are probably right on the rest. Nootbaar will take a strong offer though. Otherwise, they will keep him at least until the offseason.
