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If you trade O’Brien, who is the closer next year? You know the Cardinals won’t spend money on a free agent closer…
They will find or develop someone like they always do. Kind of like when people were freaking out over trading Helsley. Few people considered O’Brien a good replacement but he was.
Being cost controlled matters a lot. Now, maybe they would get bowled over by an offer for O’Brien, but I am guessing that it won’t happen and he will stay. I am fine with that. If he fails, it didn’t cost much to find out, but if he continues to be successful, he is a good bargain at an important position.
Being cost controlled matters in determining O’Briens value.
Being cost controlled doesn’t determine if the Cardinals are able to develop a replacement or not. Those are two different issues.
The matter of a replacement is not my discussion or focus as I don’t see that as a major reason to keep or trade him. Others who are concerned about that will have to comment.
My point is that the Cards want cost controllable players for multiple seasons who outperform their salary. O’Brien fits their model. Helsley did not. Doesn’t mean O’Brien couldn’t be traded. I just don’t see it as likely. I think the Cards will have other much higher priority players to trade based on their contracts.
Others see it differently. That’s ok. We will know the answer in a few weeks.
Not having a pretty good closer makes for a long season for the fans and probably for the players too. I don’t think they will increase the chance of that without a real good reason.
TLR received plenty of criticism at times in StL, but the manner in which he manipulated the ’11 Cardinal BP both during the regular season stretch run and throughout the post-season was nothing shy of masterful. Many may recall that the season began with Ryan Franklin as the closer, with Fernando Salas taking over that roll to lead the team with 24 SV’s after Franklin proved to be entirely ineffective early on, with Jason Motte taking over duties as the 9th inning guy during that year’s epic post-season run. At any rate, about the only way that I can think of in which to overcome the lack of a clearly defined effective closer is to have a HOF manager situated on the top step of the dugout. I’ll never forget the way Tony LaRussa was able to skillfully maneuver a far from talented Redbird BP during that unforgettable season.
As we approach the trade deadline, I believe there are 11 possible Cardinals players who could reasonably be traded for various reasons. However, only 2 of them are super likely to go. Here are my thoughts:
Romero (95% chance) – Romero is a relatively effective lefty reliever, a commodity that is often desired at the deadline in which teams are willing to overpay for. He’s also in the final year of his deal. And, he’s replaceable with either Mautz or Hansen (or potentially someone we trade for). Consider these to be Romero’s final days as a Cardinal.
May (80% chance) – The only reason not to trade May is if you strongly believe in the Cardinals’ playoff odds against the Brewers, Dodgers, and Braves. May is in the final year of his contract and has proven to be a solid #2 starter about 75% of his outings (with some of those looking like a #1). Therefore, he’s a valuable trade asset and I don’t think Bloom will let that opportunity escape us.
Bruihl (50%) – Basically see what I put for Romero only he’s a little less effective. The two reasons his odds aren’t higher is that because he’s a little less effective, his value will be fairly low and the fact that the Cardinals have limited lefty reliever replacement options. They would almost need to get a left hander back in one of these deals (ala John King equivalent like they did in ’23) in order to trade Bruihl.
O’Brien (40%) – O’Brien is the exact kind of player that every single team will be looking for at the trade deadline. Closer experience. Years of control. Strikeout ability. The way the deadline works, teams may fight over him and shoot his value well over what he might normally be worth. If that happens, I can see Bloom pulling the trigger and getting the assets. The downside is the loss of a closer, which we don’t otherwise have as a replacement part. It also severely hampers our playoff odds.
Nootbaar (40%) – Nootbaar has one year of control remaining after this season. He’s come back fairly strong from his injury and will likely see some teams wanting to trade for him. The Cardinals have a few viable players for LF in Torres and Velasquez plus the option of bringing up Josh Baez. I still think there’s a good chance the Cardinals will want to see Nootbaar play through the end of the season and then consider trading him in the offseason, but if the deal is right, they should and will trade him now.
Velasquez (25%) – Teams are often looking for a bench bat with some thump, like when we added Tommy Pham. Velasquez fits that description. He has some years of control but if someone is willing to overpay for him, there’s really no reason not to trade him away.
Stanek (20%) – These odds would probably be higher if Stanek was more consistent. Still, he’s a power bullpen arm who can get strikeouts so someone may be willing to give us something decent for him. Plus, other than a mildly expensive option year, he’s not signed for next season.
Now we get into the real low odds section, but I’m saying there’s a chance:
Fermin (15%) – Fermin has proven to be a capable bench bat. He’s nearing arbitration. The Cardinals don’t really need him and if a team is willing to give something up for him, he could be traded.
Herrera (15%) – I know. Most of you don’t like this one. But I said this at the end of last season when he was much hotter and I thought they maybe should have traded him then. Herrera just isn’t a catcher because he can’t throw runners out. He clogs up the DH spot. He’s a good hitter, but maybe not as great a hitter as some thought he might suddenly be. Plus we already have too many catchers on the team. Herrera could bring back a nice haul of players. Probably not what we could have gotten last offseason, but still a good amount. It’s worth exploring.
Crooks (10%) – Crooks has lots of years of control and wouldn’t even be listed here if we didn’t already have Leo Bernal in the wings. Bernal is having a very good season at Memphis and could probably be called up to replace Crooks and we wouldn’t lose much of a beat. The issue here is that Crooks hasn’t done anything to increase his value at the MLB level so I’m not sure we would get the kind of deal we might want to get, which is why I gave this one very low odds.
Pallante (10%) – Teams need starting pitchers. You see all the injuries. Pallante has proven himself to be solid starter. He’s also going to be Arbitration 2 eligible next season, which starts to make him a little more expensive. I gave this one very low odds though because if May is traded, it would be hard to lose a second starter. That means 2 of Matthews, Dobbins, and Mautz end up in the big league rotation with almost no one in reserve.
The Cardinals rank 17th in the majors with a 4.22 bullpen ERA. They’re in the bottom five in strikeout rate (20%) and have allowed 4.40 earned runs per nine over the past month.
The matter of a replacement is not my discussion or focus as I don’t see that as a major reason to keep or trade him.
I was addressing a specific question from LACardFan regarding who the replacement would be which is why I mentioned it.
Not having a pretty good closer makes for a long season for the fans and probably for the players too. I don’t think they will increase the chance of that without a real good reason.
I don’t think 2026 is Bloom’s highest priority. He wants to stockpile as much talent as possible for the next several years. Maybe winning games right now is the priority of the DeWitt’s but if it is then why did they hire Bloom and tell him to build something sustainable for the future? That would be mixed messages.
O’Brien is a 31 year old reliever with an injury history having the season of his life. It might be wise to cash in on that before the clock strikes midnight.
O’Brien is a 31 year old reliever with an injury history having the season of his life. It might be wise to cash in on that before the clock strikes midnight.
Couldn’t agree more.
I think that I might have said this before. But here it is again. I hate battling and battling to win a game only to have the win given away in the 9th inning. I absolutely do not want to trade O’Brien.
I think they have to trade:
May
Romero
Stanek (if there is interest)
Nootbaar (I don’t think Baez is ready, but sell while you can)
O’Brien
Pages (maybe Crooks instead)Possibly:
Bruihl
PallanteI didn’t take the time to find out which contenders may need LH’ed pitching help from the BP, but I’d have to guess that Romero may very well draw more interest than any of the other names you mentioned, 667. Effective lefty relief pitchers tend to be a hot commodity both down the stretch and during the post-season.
I think that I might have said this before. But here it is again. I hate battling and battling to win a game only to have the win given away in the 9th inning. I absolutely do not want to trade O’Brien.
I don’t like it either mud. No one does. But I think Bloom is trying to think a couple of years down the road by stockpiling as much talent as possible. Do they have to trade O’Brien? No they don’t but I think it would be wise to listen to the offers. He may be at peak value right now.
I think we should hang on to O’Brien unless we get bowled over by an offer. Plus, we don’t have many choices in the minors. I guess you could use Mautz in relief, perhaps a Matz type role, long relief. Hansen and Rincon could be choices, but Hansen hasn’t been very effective against lefties. Rincon has pitched well and could help. But those would require roster moves. I’d like to see us pick up a good lefty reliever. I have never cared for Bruihl, but he has pitched well lately.
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