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We have a problem right now with our roster in that 3 positions are being held by guys who we are just hoping they find a way to regain some promise. That’s Hence, Gorman, and Scott. They’ve all lost nearly all of their once previous trade value so now it’s just down to hoping something suddenly clicks but the results have been very rough at AAA.
With Scott, he’s young enough still. Plus, the team doesn’t have another real CF option to backup Church so I think you just hope you can fix his swing.
With Gorman and Hence, I have no idea what to do. It’s a problem and not one with a good solution.
JNevel-I had the feeling Hence had been done for awhile. But I never saw how far off a cliff Gorman and Scott fell coming. It doesn’t look good for any of those players coming back. We will see-but it may give them pause before they trade Noot. Joshua Baez may not be as ready as they think. Fortunately, Jordan’s defense plays well enough to get by while we wait for his power to show up. Lots of roster work to be done for 27.
KCB – I’ve been the low man on Hence for 3 seasons now. I actually wanted him traded away when he was at peak value in ‘23. I have thought and still think he could end up as a solid bullpen option but it’s getting a bit more dicey on that happening. I’m ok with keeping him with that sole focus in mind.
If we didn’t have a hole at 3B, I’d probably try to trade Gorman for anything we can get just to clear a roster spot. So to do that, we need to trade for some kind of third base option.
We could also use a true CF option because again, no one is coming up soon unless they can fix Victor Scott. Maybe we can get a decent AAA guy with some promise in a trade?
Nootbaar wasn’t a good CFer in ‘23. My guess is he’s only considered an occasional fill-in option. It’s really just Church or Scott and neither seems to be able to hit.
Do you think they would play Nootbaar every day in CF?
Obviously not. In an emergency. Who do you play if Church gets hurt? Noot obviously isn’t ideal, but the other options are scary. Maybe a better question is who you think they would get for Noot in a deadline trade? Not much imo. Who is available to step up from aaa? I guess you can bring Baez up, but are you really for that? My point being just maybe he’s more valuable here than trading him off at a discount.
If someone said that Noot should be sold at a discount, I disagree also. But if he can fetch full value, I say, “Do it!”. The potential fill in role in CF does not justify keeping him, IMO, if they get a good offer. My view is that his value will likely never be higher as he proved he is healthy and playing close to his career norm. But when all is said and done, he is a 5-10% above MLB average player (OPS+).
He is a year and a half away from free agency and he isn’t going to be here when the Cardinals are truly competitive again. If they don’t get the good offer now, I bet he will certainly be traded in the upcoming offseason.
However, because of a potential lockout stalling all offseason activity, if I was the Cards, that would give me additional incentive to move him now. Either way, Noot walks after the 2027 season. He is not a core player to get a big, multi-year deal – at least not here.
First priority is moving Dustin May. That allows the Cardinals to save $3-4 million.
Noot would have to be a trade comparable to the Donovan trade to move him, and I don’t see the Cardinals pushing for Competitive Balance round picks, as there is talk those will be eliminated.
Yeah I think May, Romero, and Noot have to be almost locks to be traded before August 3. None of them have any future with the organization so get what you can for them now while you still can.
O’Brien, Herrera, or Burly are much more debatable. O’Brien is the likeliest of those three to be moved but it just depends on the offers.
I don’t think Gorman has a future with the organization so it might be prudent to try to move him now for some Low A lottery pick. To bring Gorman back next year you are looking at an Arb 2 salary of around $3.5M. Are they going to pay that to watch him hit .190 or spend half the year in Memphis? I doubt it unless they think the magic elixir that turned Walker around will work on Gorman.
I wouldn’t completely give up on Victor Scott yet. He may never be an everyday player but he could be a serviceable 4th OF or defensive replacement if he can regain a little more offense.
Obviously we are going to have to address LF, CF, and 3B before 2027 if we want to be taken seriously. I’m not optimistic we have internal solutions except maybe with Church. Joshua Baez is a big wild card. Lots of power and K’s. At some point we will have to find out if he is a big league player or not. He will probably get called up before the end of August.
Its amazing how everyone has known for a long time that Hence was done. For a couple years now I caught a face full every year during the top prospect vote for saying he is not a top prospect anymore unless and until he shows he still is. I am 100% sure that, a year from now, when Roby gets back on the mound and he finds yet another way to end up on the IL, it will be exactly the same.
Gorman has DeJong syndrome, whatever that is. There is no cure. With Scott, it seems like the speed and power of the ML game is one notch too much for him on the offense side of the game. Hitting ML pitching is something not everyone can do no matter how good of an athlete they are.
Blaze Jordan is a very interesting case study in adapting to the ml game. His approach seems like it must be quite different from what he was doing in AAA based upon viewing the batting lines he put up. He seems all about making contact and putting it in play. He clearly did not show up with the optimized put mistakes in the parking lot swing that Walker and Gorman showed up with, only for ML opposition to find ways to work around it. It seems like it would be good if Josh Baez could try to shift in that direction while still in AAA to facilitate the step up to MLB. But I guess putting AAA meatballs in the parking lot is how a guy gets called up.
bling said:
But I guess putting AAA meatballs in the parking lot is how a guy gets called up.
Well, it hasn’t worked for Baez yet. Last I checked he leads Triple-A in home runs.
Well, it hasn’t worked for Baez yet.
Wait a couple weeks or whenever it is the service time math works in the organization’s favor.
I just don’t think they’re going to let guys come up and flounder anymore. If he’s struggling in aaa—–
Bling – When I said I was the low person on Hence the past few seasons, I apologize for bypassing you. I remember you saying he wouldn’t be in your top 100. So yes, you were definitely the lowest rater! Then again, you also declared there was zero chance the Cardinals would develop a single starting pitcher internally and 2 years later we have 4 of 5 and maybe soon to be 5 of 5. I often dismiss your comments like both of these as hyperbole.
I think I said to the effect I didn’t rank Hence at all because I didn’t consider him a prospect at all. The same as anyone else who cannot physically play baseball at a high level is not a prospect.
I doubt I ever said the Cardinals would never develop a starter internally. I would have been quick to point out how crappy they were at it and how they had virtually no success at it for a while. I did point out that they seemed to put all the effort into trying to tap dance the fragile tea cup types through the development process by curating work load and whatever else, to no avail, and seemed to have no ability to develop and improve the pick up truck guys with lesser stuff but who had the resiliency to matter. They seem to have decided to just go with some pick up trucks for now rather than buying rotation filler, while still trying to dance some tea cups up through the system in between IL stints. We have yet to see if they can produce a competitive rotation.
BB – I remember the post but doubt I could ever find it again. You said something like there was no reason to believe the Cardinals would ever develop a starter internally with their current group of prospects given that their track record of doing so was so bad in the past and Brian and I argued that they had a far better chance of doing so now because of the talented arms they had in the system versus what they had prior. Basically, from 2021-2024, there were so few arms to try to build up.
It probably has helped having the new development team in place as they seem to have helped Leahy for sure and probably have helped Pallante, Liberatore, and McGreevey.
Yeah I think May, Romero, and Noot have to be almost locks to be traded before August 3.
I agree on May and Romero.
Here is where I think people are missing the boat on Nootbaar. Remember in 2023 when the Cardinals refused to pay $5-10 million for a free agent outfielder and instead rushed a guy from AA to the big leagues to save money?
How did that work out form them in 2023?
Nootbaar’s cost next year will be about what a comparable free agent will cost.
You said something like there was no reason to believe the Cardinals would ever develop a starter internally with their current group of prospects given that their track record of doing so was so bad in the past
Well, the Cardinals did have an abysmal track record of developing starters because Mozeliak gutted the player development team.
Pretty sure that Bling said they could not develop ACES.
I truly feel bad for Gorman, don’t know what happened to him, the fall from grace has been loud and painful. The other day I happened to think about him because I mentioned to the wife during a telecast that nobody ever talked about him any more, so I looked up his stats. Oh man…pure shock. What are we gonna do with that?? I’m not sure you can get anything for him at all in organized baseball with that slash line, you might have to just give up and say here’s your check for the rest of your time, and wave bye bye. It does seem to be the DeJong syndrome all over again. Personable players both, but you have to produce to stay in the show. Whiffing and walking back to the dugout doesn’t get it done.
And Victor Scott isn’t doing a whole lot better in AAA than he did up in the bigs either. There’s obviously something wrong with his swing, or pitch recognition, or his eyesight is just plain bad. Something! Don’t know what helps that that probably hasn’t been tried. If he doesn’t get it together soon, the same may have to happen with him too– if he can’t put the ball in play and run like __, we can’t use you. We gotta move on sometime. He reminds me of Adron Chambers and Billy Hamilton.The pitching situation: All in all, I’m OK with the starters right now. Not all of them are good, but they’re serviceable for now. There has been a definite improvement on a couple of them this year.
The bullpen however, is like an open sore with this team–when will it heal? We keep giving away winnable games after the 7th inning, lately at least one each series, and changes are apparently needed out there. Right now, any and all out there are available if I’m the GM and somebody calls me up looking for an arm, or I might even throw one in to get a position player deal cinched. I’ll take my chances with some new kids, the results can’t be a whole lot worse. Might as well see what we’ve got down on the farm.Well anyway, I am surprised they produced 4 homegrowns that can answer the bell and mostly not get killed out there. The rotation health has been astonishing the last couple years. If they can produce a stream of starters faster than attrition cuts it down, then in time they should be able to assemble a home grown rotation that is competitive and backed by useable depth. They do need to be careful about shoving reliable guys aside, disrupting their development, whenever a hospital case gets healthy enough to join a rotation. Let the unreliable returning guys and their amazing stuff come on after the reliable starters for 3 or 4 innings and see if they can stay healthy. Don’t disrupt and disrespect the guys with enough resiliency to matter.
Complete list of Memphis relievers with a Triple-A ERA under 5.00:
Brycen Mautz 3.18 (5 2/3 innings – on 40-man)
Victor Santos 3.38 (10 2/3 innings)
Ryan Fernandez 3.96 (on 40-man)
Hancel Rincon 4.20That’s all folks!
I suspect we may see Brycen Mautz in the near future. Svanson, Graceffo and Gastelum are the only relievers with options.
Bloom is only up for changes around the margins, given the plan he set out at the beginning of the season. It’s sink or swim with the team we have for the most part, I don’t see the deadline changing that much if at all.
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