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47. Hector Soto
48. John Nogowski
49. Lars Nootbar
50. Leandro Cedeno – The jump to A ball was a challenge for Cedeno this year with a wRC+ of 104 and DRC+ of 114. Both of these are below his previous averages of 145 and 140, respectively. What surprised me was how much his power eroded from Johnson City in 2018 (258 PA: .256 ISO) to Peoria in 2019 (396 PA: .126 ISO). Still has a high ceiling.I’ll preface this with a note because Baseball Prospectus didn’t have cFIP and DRA- available for the Appalachian League until recently. Adding these values for Hector Soto moves him up right near Zach Thompson and Genesis Cabrera in my spreadsheet. Thus, I have him jumping ahead of Nogowski in this set of rankings, despite having voted Nogowski higher the past few rounds.
35. Hector Soto – One of the players I’m most interested to learn more about. In his first season stateside, he started as a reliever (logging 2 or more IP in every appearance) in the GCL, State College, and Palm Beach. He finished the year with Johnson City, where he started his final five games. He totaled 51 1/3 IP. Across all levels, he had an elite 26.3% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, and 20.7% strikeout minus walk rate. In Johnson City over 31 2/3 IP his cFIP was 88 and his DRA- was 63, which is just another way of showing how thoroughly he dominated the opposition.
36. John Nogowski
37. Alex Fagalde
38. Lars Nootbar – Had a small breakout this year as he made it all the way to AA in his first full season. Across A, A+, and AA he had a 110 wRC+ and 129 DRC+. The higher DRC+ can be attributed to his strong plate discipline, which is his best tool at this point. He had a .198 ISO in Peoria with 43.5% GB. Then between Palm Beach and Springfield he had only a .055 ISO with 53.2% GB. His BABIP increased at each level, so he either has a feel for placing hits, hits the ball hard, or both. With another year of development, I could see him drawing some comparisons to a lite version of early-career Matt Carpenter.
27. Justin Toerner
28. John Nogowski
29. Juan Yepez
30. Rangel Ravelo (if he’s still eligible… Andy Pallante if he’s not)23. Justin Toerner
24. John Nogowski
25. Ramon Urias
26. Juan Yepez – Generally speaking, Yepez has been promoted aggressively (reaching A in his age 18 season and AA in his age 21 season). In between, though, it’s been a little weird as he was assigned to A in each of his age 18-21 seasons. During this time his performance varied from positive (getting by offensively despite being young for his level and showing flashes of elite hitting ability) to negative (an extreme, prolonged slump in A+). This year he hit for more power mainly due to an increase in his HR/FB%.
I’d like to see Edman get a start at SS in this last stretch of games. Despite SS being his natural position, he has played 0 innings there with St. Louis this year. (In AAA this year, Edman started 25 games at 2B, 9 at 3B, 9 at SS, and 2 in CF.)
I’m glad to see DeJong get his wRC+ back to 100 (league average) after yesterday’s HR, but Edman’s now up to 113 (13% above league average). Though, by DRC+ they are an identical 104 (4% above league average).
A 2020 infield of 2B Wong, SS DeJong, and 3B Carpenter, with Edman playing most days between all three positions seems like a good idea to me. I would prefer to keep the depth (injuries happen) and play the matchups when everyone’s healthy. And if Carpenter gets off to a poor start again, just slot Edman in as the regular at 3B.
Sure it’s early, but I think one thing to watch in spring training next year is how much time Edman gets at SS.
I agree that it’s hard to tell what the Cards think about Nogowski, especially by having him repeat AA after the Arizona Fall League invite (even if he was the taxi-squad player).
There’s a nice article about him on Fangraphs today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/john-nogowskis-improbable-path/
From that: “he said that he hopes to gain more reps in the outfield this winter as a member of the Águilas Cibaeñas in the Dominican winter league in order to help be more attractive to a big league manager in the future. He is also eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter”
15. Justin Toerner
16. John Nogowski – He made it to AAA this year in his age 26 season and didn’t disappoint—mainly with elite plate discipline and bat control. This year, Nogowski had both the highest walk rate (14.9%) and lowest strikeout rate (11.7%) among qualified (non-DSL) minor leaguers in the Cardinals’ system. His path to MLB playing time is unclear, but he possesses a unique and potentially valuable skill set.
17. Luken Baker – I find Toerner an interesting player to compare with Baker. They were both drafted in 2018, but Baker on day one and Toerner toward the end of day three. While they are of similar age, their physiques/builds are quite different. They also had almost mirror opposite seasons: Toerner followed one outstanding month (96 PA: 1.081 OPS) with four essentially average months, Baker started with four essentially average months before taking off in August (92 PA: 1.067 OPS).
Furthermore, despite similar plate discipline, they contributed value in otherwise different ways. Baker (496 PA: 10.5 BB%, 22.6 K%, .244 AVG, .146 ISO, .716 OPS, 115 wRC+, 118 DRC+). Toerner’s combined 2018-2019 at A+ (282 PA: 13.5 BB%, 20.9 K%, .292 AVG, .102 ISO, .796 OPS, 141 wRC+, 155 DRC+). Toerner holds the clear edge overall and they were both roughly the same age while posting these lines.
18. Ramon Urias – His age is starting to push him into Voit/Ravelo/Nogowski territory, but he might be primed for a Randy Arozarena-esque jump in consistency next year. For Urias, it was a tale of two halves: April-May (183 PA: .221 AVG, .091 ISO, .653 OPS) vs. June-September (221 PA: .295 AVG, .208 ISO, .882 OPS). He also had good plate discipline, which was consistent across the entire season (11.7% walk rate, 18.9% strikeout rate).
Jeske, so how do you normalize age and proximity to the majors with performance? Does it make sense to give last years performance equal weight to current year performance?
It’s not a perfect system by any means. I’ll try my best to explain. It considers each of the 4 components independently (proximity, age/level, current year, and past year(s)).
Proximity is simple: AAA = 5 points DSL/GCL = 0 points
For age/level, I used this chart as a baseline: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minor-league-leaderboard-context/.
For performance, I use stats that are scaled to league average, so the performance score is simply their performance compared to league average across all levels. For batters, 150 RC+ or higher = 5 points; 88 RC+ or lower = 0 points. (No “extra” or negative values). Pitchers are the opposite. Lastly, the maximum performance score for a complex league is 4 instead of 5.
As for equally weighting the current year with past year(s), I think this works out okay in the end. There are many examples of a player bouncing back from a poor year due to injury or just taking some time to adjust to a higher level of play (where a good past performance value will help hold up a players’ value). Likewise, there are many examples of a player having a breakout after previous years of average or below production (where a poor past performance value will help temper expectations some going forward).
For example, here’s a some approximate scores for a few (very different types of) players using this method: (Prox, Age/Lvl, Current, Past)
Carlson: (4.25, 5, 4.75, 1.75) 15.75
Arozarena: (4.75, .5, 5, 3) 13.25
Montero: (4, 4.5, 0, 4) 12.5
Toerner: (3.5, .25, 3.5, 4.25) 11.5
Nunez: (1.25, 5, 0, 4) 10.25
Sosa: (5, 2, .5, 1.5) 9
Mendoza: (0, 1, 4, 4) 9
Garcia: (5, 0, 0, 1.75) 6.75This makes it look a little clearer than it actually is as it gets really crowded in the middle. I hope this helps to understand, even if some of my rankings seem a little wonky.
11. Justin Williams
12. Junior Fernandez
13. Genesis Cabrera – He was the fourth youngest pitcher in AAA with 99 IP. Has great stuff as seen in his 24.4% K%, but still walks too many as seen in his poor (but improved) 9% BB%. Combining these, his 15.4% K-BB% was the seventh best in AAA of pitchers with 99 IP. Only one of those with a better K-BB% was younger.
14. Justin Toerner – An unexpected fast-riser from the 2018 draft as a 28th round pick. He’s been almost exactly the average age for his level until AA this year, where he was a little younger. His performance prior to AA across two seasons was outstanding (509 PA: 140 wRC+, 151 DRC+). Then in AA, his performance was about average (199 PA: 103 wRC+, 109 DRC+).
I like that his walk rate remained consistently excellent at 14% across both levels this year, but don’t like that his strikeout rate increased from 21% to 27%. Though it could largely be attributed to the hitting environment in Palm Beach vs. Springfield, it was nice to see his ISO improve from .098 to .157 with the move to AA. I would be remiss not to mention that he was one of the hottest hitters in the minors through the first month of the season (96 PA: 1.081 OPS).
+++
I suspect that from Toerner on, some of my rankings might diverge a bit from the masses, so I want to provide an explanation. For my rankings, I created a spreadsheet to consider four categories in evaluating prospects (1. proximity to majors, 2. age compared to level, 3. current year performance, and 4. previous year(s) performance). All are weighted equally. Batting performance is an average of wRC+ and DRC+; pitching performance is an average of cFIP and DRA-. It’s not infallible and I’ve largely refrained from manually adjusting the resulting ranks. What has resulted is a unique list, surely. It has also been fun to write up so far as it’s forced me to take a closer look at some players I wouldn’t have otherwise given much attention.
7. Justin Williams
8. Angel Rondon – Has been a fast riser with excellent performance at every level. Across all levels, his cFIP is 101 (average) and DRA- (Deserved Run Average) is 84 (16% better than average). He was the seventh youngest pitcher with 100 IP in AA. It would be nice if he decreased the walks a little, but he still posted a solid 14.6% K-BB% in Springfield.
9. Jake Woodford – I’m not the biggest fan of Woodford, but there might be something here. I don’t like his career-high 11.7% BB%. On the positive side, his K’s jumped to a career-high (but only average) 20.4%. While his 106 cFIP in 2019 was average, his 69.5 DRA- puts him at 30% better than average. This surprised me. Add to that, he was the third youngest pitcher in AAA with 100 IP. So, yeah… there might be something here, but for me this ranking is still blind faith.
10. Junior Fernandez – Even with a discount to his performance for being a bullpen arm, he still stands out. Between Springfield and Memphis this year, his cFIP was 80 and DRA- was 58 — both near elite. This also considers his ability to throw multiple innings (he recorded 4 outs or more in 44% or 20 of his 45 MiLB appearances this year; 35% were 2 IP or more) and his youth (he was among the youngest pitchers with 20 IP in AAA this year). He’s not a typical RP prospect.
Looks like I forgot to add Williams’ last few games this year to my spreadsheet. Please see corrected lines below:
This year at roughly the same age in AAA, Williams (105 PA: .281 ISO, 1.130 OPS, 171 wRC+, 161 DRC+) slightly edged Arozarena (283 PA: .236 ISO, 1.028 OPS, 151 wRC+, 154 DRC+), though in less than half the PAs.
Corrected stats in bold: This year at roughly the same age in AAA, Williams (119 PA: .255 ISO, 1.045 OPS, 152 wRC+, 146 DRC+) slightly edged Arozarena (283 PA: .236 ISO, 1.028 OPS, 151 wRC+, 154 DRC+), though in less than half the PAs.
Both also bounced back in their second go at AAA: Williams (105 PA: 1.130 OPS, 171 wRC+, 161 DRC+) and O’Neill (273 PA: 1.078 OPS, 170 wRC+, 159 DRC+).
Corrected stats in bold: Both also bounced back in their second go at AAA: Williams (119 PA: 1.045 OPS, 152 wRC+, 146 DRC+) and O’Neill (273 PA: 1.078 OPS, 170 wRC+, 159 DRC+).
4. Ivan Herrera – Quietly on the same trajectory as Carlson and Gorman. Exceptional bat (.805 OPS was 9th best among players with same number of PAs in Midwest League) and plate discipline (.63 BB/K was 16th best among players with same number of PAs in Midwest League). At the same age, Herrera (291 PA: 136 wRC+, 138 DRC+) performed better than Carlson (451 PA: 101 wRC+, 98 DRC+) and Gorman (282 PA: 128 wRC+, 130 DRC+) in Peoria.
5. Randy Arozarena – In the past, he showed flashes of greatness. This year, he showed what it looks like to put it all together: plate discipline, contact, power, speed, defense.
6. Justin Williams – So, this one might need some explaining. Williams’ 2017 AA breakout (409 PA: 9% BB, 17% K, .189 ISO, .853 OPS, 145 wRC+, 147 DRC+) is nearly identical to Arozarena’s combined 2017-19 in AA (413 PA: 11% BB, 20% K, .189 ISO, .896 OPS, 152 wRC+, 148 DRC+). Williams did this in his age 21 season, while Arozarena was 22-24. This year at roughly the same age in AAA, Williams (105 PA: .281 ISO, 1.130 OPS, 171 wRC+, 161 DRC+) slightly edged Arozarena (283 PA: .236 ISO, 1.028 OPS, 151 wRC+, 154 DRC+), though in less than half the PAs.
Williams’ past three years also look very similar to Tyler O’Neill at the same stage. AA: Williams (409 PA: .189 ISO, .853 OPS, 145 wRC+, 147 DRC+) and O’Neill (575 PA: .215 ISO, .882 OPS, 152 wRC+, 144 DRC+). They both followed up with near league average numbers in their first go at AAA. Both also bounced back in their second go at AAA: Williams (105 PA: 1.130 OPS, 171 wRC+, 161 DRC+) and O’Neill (273 PA: 1.078 OPS, 170 wRC+, 159 DRC+).
Beyond the comparisons, Williams exhibited two exciting developments this year. First, he posted the highest walk rate of his career at 13.4%. Second, he decreased his groundball percentage from his average of 55-60% all the way down to 42%. It’s not a surprise then, that he put up the highest ISO of his career.
I voted in the other thread (1. Carlson, 2. Gorman, 3. Herrera). I wanted to comment here as this has the list of eligible players. Specifically, I was surprised to see votes for Helsley and Thomas.
I believe Helsley, Poncedeleon, and Thomas have all “graduated.”
All three are removed from the mlb.com team prospect rankings page. Thomas is the only of the three still on fangraphs’ the board page, but I think he “graduated” since that was last updated.
I don’t have an issue including them in the vote here, I’m just not sure they will be on many other 2020 prospect lists.
Sure. I used Fangraphs Milb Leaderboards (selected: Season Start 2006, Season End 2019, Min PA 300, League AA: All Leagues) then there’s an “export data” link above the table.
Next I opened in excel and used filters to set a 20 HR and 20 SB minimum, and 21 age and 600 PA maximum.
One important note with this method–when you select multiple years instead of a single year, it combines stats for all years at the level into a single line and uses the season age during which a player first reached the level. For example, Dylan Cozens also showed up using this filter and data set, but he reached AA at the end of his age 21 season and his 20/20 year at AA was actually his age 22 season.
The 600 PA maximum eliminates anyone who took multiple seasons to accumulate totals of least 20/20. It might not be precise, but I’m guessing anyone who goes 20/20 at a young age is going to get a promotion and not stick around at AA for more than 600 PA.
This piqued my curiosity too.
From what I was able to search from 2006 to 2019, no 20 year old has put up a 20/20 season in AA. Carlson would be the first.
Joc Pederson in 2013 was the only 21 year old (22 hr, 31, sb, 519 pa).
I would guess that others who were on pace for a 20/20 season were promoted to AAA or MLB before they reached the milestone.
Carlson’s AA season so far looks remarkably similar to (even a little better than) the AA versions of Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, and Joc Pederson.
Among other recent Cardinals players/prospects, Carlson’s season is close to the the AA versions of Tyler O’Neill (with SEA) and Justin Williams (with TB). His numbers are also close to Oscar Taveras, but in my opinion, Taveras reached a higher level of production. (I looked at age, PA/HR, PA/SB, BB%, K%, ISO, OPS, wRC+).
