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I would downgrade Montero…he needs to get some guidance and direction. He has a long way to go,
Who else in that top 10 would you bump ahead of him? You’ve got a guy who’s even further away in Montero and two guys who probably end up as relievers. It’s hard to justify dropping a guy too far on an injury year when he was a 19 year old full season league MVP the year before.
Pipeline seems to like Herrera much more than they did just a few months ago when they omitted him from their top 25 Arizona Fall League prospects. Better late than not at all, I guess. I feel compelled to say something about the silly following quote, though, from Pipeline’s Ivan Herrera capsule:
“Scouts are increasingly bullish about Herrera’s power potential, with some seeing him as a future 15-plus homer threat who also hits for average and gets on base at a high clip.”
The latter portion is very nice, and makes perfect sense given Herrera’s elite three-year professional track record. But Ivan just hit 8 homers in 69 games for Peoria at age 18. Only a loon or a liar could watch an 18-year-old boy pop 8 homers in fewer than 70 Midwest League games and conclude that, golly, he “might” have as much as “15-plus” homer power in the majors. The plausible potential is 25-30 per 600 PA’s, period. (Especially so, if MLB keeps the jumpyball.)
But don’t listen to me. How about an entirely objective analysis?
The Davenport Peak MLB Translation for Ivan’s Peoria campaign is in fact a robust one home run per 22 at-bats, or 25 longballs per 550 AB’s. Moreover, that’s based on Herrera’s being translated by Clay Davenport as a 19-year-old rather than 18-year-old, since Herrera is a June baby, not July, and July 1 is of course the current arbitrary cutoff for “baseball age.” (Ye Olde Tymers may recall that in the 1980’s the prospect age cutoff was June 1, not July, for whatever it’s worth.)And speaking of Ivan the Terrific, he and fellow 19-year-old Nolan Gorman are having a pretty nice Spring Training so far. Even looks pretty good compared to last year’s “breakout” performance by then-20-year-old Dylan Carlson.
2019 Dylan Carlson .250/.353/.364 with a .38 BB/K ratio.
2020 Gorman + Herrera .310/.344/.483 with a .40 BB/K tally.Carlson of course may have faced somewhat tougher pitching last spring. But then, Ivan and Nolan are still teenagers, each presently more than half a year younger than Dylan was at this time last year. (Don’t know how anyone with a grasp of the importance of prospect ages has either kid outside their top 50 overall prospects, much less where Keith Law ranked them [82 and 97]). Incredibly, despite his caution Law is somehow the high man nationally on Herrera.
Jim Callis is not all that impressed with the Cardinals, ranking the system no. 18.
Here’s our first ever ranking of all 30 #MLB farm systems: https://t.co/UiZdt8hb3W pic.twitter.com/oEW6X8Cfo1
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 10, 2020
MLB Pipeline is just announcing its new national top 100 prospect list for 2021. For the #stlcards:
13. Dylan Carlson
37. Matthew Liberatore
38. Nolan Gorman(Randy Arozarena is no. 34.)
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 29, 2021
Full list:
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-top-100-prospects-list-for-2021?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
We are far more conservative graders here, with no Cardinals prospects having any 70 pitches, let alone 80. This feels too aggressive for my tastes…
Matthew Liberatore's curveball grades out as the best among all Top 100 prospects per @jimcallisMLB. https://t.co/i59o69V60x
— Cardinals Player Development (@CardsPlayerDev) February 2, 2021
OK, 60 is more reasonable. It read like they were passing out 80 grades like cotton candy at the circus.
Colorado’s new MLB top-30:
Montero #7 ETA 2021~~ TCN #7
Locey #15 ETA 2022~~ TCN #19
Gil #22~~~ETA 2022~~~ TCN #20Interesting that they mention that Mendoza was a standout at the alternate site this past summer. Edwin Nunez debuts at #12.
Edwin Nunez, Patrick Romeri and Evan Mendoza enter the #STLCards Top 30 list after St. Louis sent a package of prospects to Colorado for Nolan Arenado: https://t.co/jlEeb8Brvy pic.twitter.com/Qb3ausBSE2
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) February 2, 2021
Fernandez at 10 tells me they are clueless and three years behind. Jordan Walker does exist in their world doesn’t he? But who am I to say a middle reliever with control and injury issues isn’t a better bet than Walker.
I’m surprised to see Roel Ramirez make it into the Top 30. When he was up for that cup of coffee in 2020, he spilled it all over the mound.
MLB hasn’t released their updated 2021 rankings yet. From what I’ve seen they usually just add in guys to replace prospects as they are traded/graduated. They won’t drop or rerank guys unless it’s the 3 times a year they do it (Spring Training, Post Draft and Final). The new rankings will probably be out in a week or so. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ramirez drops off. They have placed added value on relievers though and it’s based as much on how close they are to the majors, tools, and ceiling as it is results. So, some of those things push Fernandez up their board.
Pipeline has disclosed its new Cardinals top 30:
Cards are their no. 17 farm system.
Romeri’s rise will certainly help the organization’s OF depth sooner than later. His is getting much notice in the media.
Kudos to the Tiger’s FO…. three years ago their farm system was in shambles.
It’s surprising that Jhon Torres keeps moving up even though his stats have never been great and he didn’t make the practice squad in 2020. The scouts must like how he looks.
It will be very interesting to see how all the players inactive in 2020, including Romeri and Torres, will perform in 2021. I get why Romeri was not in the alternate camp, but Torres’ exclusion concerned me then and still does now. Despite a gaggle of third basemen but few outfielders, they still made room for Malcom Nunez (and Trejyn Fletcher), but not Torres..
Updated Cardinals top 30. Baez and McGreevy debut at nos. 5 and 6.
New national top 100.
25. Gorman
51. Liberatore
63. Walkerhttps://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/
FWIW, the timing seems odd from a news perspective – competing with MLB spring training Opening Day…
The individual prospect grades from MLB seem to be quite conservative. They also don’t build potential in for young players IMO
Very interesting to see the prospect list. A lot has changed!
Three Cardinals in MLB Pipeline’s new national top 100:
30. Walker
33. Gorman
43. Liberatore(FWIW, it seems odd timing to announce given that today is MLB’s spring Opening Day…)
New Cards top 30.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/cardinals/
1 Walker
2 Gorman
3 Liberatore
4 Herrera
5 Winn
6 Yepez
7 Baez
8 McGreevy
9 Thompson
10 Burleson
11 Hence
12 Donovan
13 M Nunez
14 Rondon
15 Pallante
16 Mejia
17 L Baker
18 Willis
19 Holgate
20 Thomas
21 Love
22 Bedell
23 Graceffo
24 Torres
25 Perez
26 J Rodriguez
27 Lunn
28 E Nunez
29 Pacheco
30 Walsh
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