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… If healthy. Pitchers always have that caveat.
Catching prospects like kelly are a hairs width from being that transformational prospect. Catchers are just that hard to find.
If kelly puts up the same ops as he put up in aaa for ten years he will average 4-5 WAR offensively. That’s consistent all star and probably hall numbers.
He is still developing. He could easily put up posey offensive numbers for a few years.
He has plus defense.
About the only bad thing you can say as a positional prospect is he isnt as talented as arod… Which is that once in a generation talent.
I repeat : good catchers are stupidly difficult to find. And by stupidly difficult I mean they are chronically massively underrated because of things like this.
Reyes? Oh he’s got the arm… IF HEALTHY… he also has between bad and horrible control issues when that isnt an issue.
Young, right handed randy johnson (i make the comparison because of wildness issues)? I could see that. If he can eventually throw over 110 innings and harness the talent. Haven’t seen it really yet.
Kelly? Seen it already. Just needs a shot in mlb.
Readiness, position, and balance of plus offense and defense trumps the arm due to major injury questions, lack of innings shown, and lack of control.
Obviously nobody shares my opinion but eh… Not the first time.
P.s. Flaherty has an argument too.
1. Carson kelly
Injury changes a lot. Kelly is at a premium position and no matter reyes’ upside, kelly is IMO a decade long all star without the injury questions.
Six of one, half dozen of another. Catcher prospects are undervalued. Not by me.
I doubt it drops them much beyond confidence helping… He’s been doing something right.
I can be a bit hyped up about the quality of our minors at times…in a good way mostly… It was just an obvious point to me.
Memphis won… It doesn’t have to be perfect lol
Relative value-wise he is worth wha tI stated
What teams can afford individually is a different question.
… Which is a different argument.
Entertainers have always made more money than laborers for the effort involved.
I wouldnt either.
The crazy thing is that closers who throw as hard as him are definitely top 100 guys… He is definitely underrated.
For those who don’t think he is worth his contract…
WAR value is exponential. To give an idea of what I mean, Someone with their WAR value in the 8-10 range is worth somewhere in the neighborhood as the yankees entire payroll.
In one year.
Guys like fowler are overpaid. Guys like stanton and trout are severely underpaid.
It is the nature of the beast…. For the same reason lebron is underpaid. He is just that good. But if you pay him like he is worth you cant build a team around him
I dont think stanton will come here because he doesnt want to be in the midwest but to say he isnt worth his contract is ignoring some very large inconvenient facts — that he is going to come very close to paying for his contract this year for one.
Let the man make his picks sheesh :p
Even if I agree with you…
Brian : pitchers parks vs. Hitters parks. Higher level. You take your guy I’ll take gomber 🙂 I can see the reasoning but eh.. gs, consistency, level and even the parks are screamingly in one direction on what is a basic tie numerically if you look at basic stats alone.
/shrugs… Not a big deal if you disagree regardless. In the immortal words of william devane (very good and often forgotten actor)…. “let them play”.
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.Yes… The movie was not in the same league as good as the original. So what.
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.… I said that not because I’m any more insane than usual… Partially just the lack of respect. Partially because I’ve got houston on the brain a bit due to recent news. Partially just wanted to be weird.
Maybe I am more insane than usual. Bah lol
Hey if reyes is throwing 5-6 strong later in the year then great.
I think you can count on him in the bullpen and anything more is a bonus. The article was interesting but I don’t want to get ahead of myself.
Optimism vs realism and all that
Three of alcantara reyes wainright and wacha in the bullpen fixes that. Reyes can’t start. Alcantara can come up slowly (maybe start later). and the other two probably should be relievers but can use one as a starter.
Martinez
Resign lynn
Wacha/wainright
Weaver
FlahertyRotation might need help during the year but it is good enough…. And that bullpen is potentially nasty.
Stopgap for a year wouldnt be the worst idea either…
… The noise of mo saying we have too many players for spots in our outfield says they’re not done selling by the way.
So I’m not just blowing smoke. There might be several trades coming at some point yet.
Reyes is a bullpen guy next year.
I think stanton is a pipe dream as well. But we should have the space now… If we want.
In my opinion theyre not done selling. Maybe finish in the offseason but still.
That clears room for stanton imo.. just saying.
Yeah.. We gave him away. We also have ready replacements that are cheaper.
I want to see how this plays out before I say positive things because this seems … Incomplete.
But given our history… Not sure I care for this in some ways. We dont exactly have a history of bringing in big time talent… This only makes sense if we clear out fowler too which mostly/kinda resets our money situation.
It should also be said here… Kelly and knizner are neither one of them that “big bat”… However given their position that doesnt make them less valuable.
Especially since we already have them.
Johnny bench… Molina… Neither were what I would call a “big bat” in a playoff lineup.
Both were hall of fame quality bats at their position and good bats in playoff lineups. The difference is maybe one of semantics but it is there.
Only catcher I’ve ever seen with the “big bat” moniker is piazza and the guy sucked as a catcher.
Knizner and kelly are incredibly valuable due to position. They will not fill our big bat hole.
Not sure what to do about it at this point
Carson kelly just turned 23… He was 22 for most of the year.
Saying knizner is better at that age is a stretch. Maybe not much of one given that average and more catching experience but it is pushing it a bit.
No no through six now.
if gomber isn’t pitcher of the month in august… Someone was stupidly good.
4-0 with 0.67 era … Before a no hitter through six tonight.
Yeah maybe he blows up and give up ten runs in the seventh but I think it is safe to say he has mastered aa.
… And while I’m thinking about it.
I think knizner has to crack our top ten. He’s had a heck of a year. Given his position and the performance of Springfields staff … Fairly solid.
I know it will be hard to crack the top five but it is so hard to find catchers… Having two guys like kelly and knizner is almost unfair (not complaining).
Whether or not you think he is inconsistent, his numbers do not merit that level of vitriol.
He is at worst “good”. He hasn’t had a season where he put us on his back in the playoffs at this point but he is only 27.
Welcome to real life where inconvenient facts can be taken as harsh judgements….
Sheesh people learn to take criticism… It was barely even criticism.
P.s. 3 years is an eternity in prospect ratings. Helsley would have to dominate aaa late this year to even sniff fernandez’ prospect ranking.
To give you perspective… Fernandez could screw around for two years before he hits aa and still be younger than helsley at aa. That’s why he is ranked higher. That gives him a significantly higher value even with production differences. It isnt like an era of 3.5 or so is god awful
Length of career is valued for good reason.
Ranking helsley higher is the rough equivalent of saying a freshman in college is less talented than a senior because the senior produces more… Even though the freshman is putting up good numbers with plenty of time to grow.
Never mind that the freshman has tons of time to become an all pro and grow into his talent. Never mind that the freshman has every bit the talent if not more.
Nothing to see here. Only one number matters.
Fernandez is three years younger at roughly the same level he can afford an off year and still be a better prospect.
The rest… Yeah.
Note: I think he is too low on our list as well… It is just stupidly impressive when an arm like that can’t crack a lot of organizational top 20s much less pretty much every organizational top ten.
Not necessarily… he could very well be roughly the fifteenth best pitcher in our system.
What’s wrong is that our system is rated that low.
