Ryan Helsley

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This topic contains 50 replies, has 11 voices, and was last updated by Avatar Cardinals27 4 months, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #30904
    stlcard25
    stlcard25
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    Helsley seems like a good candidate for the Rosenthal treatment. They’re gonna need to move some of these guys into bullpen roles some day.

    #30905
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    bccran, now I finally can respond since you posted something concrete. I have a right to do this as one of “those in the know (supposedly)” you called out yesterday. I spell this out because you are very sensitive to what you call “piling on” but I consider simply responding to your comments that are disagreed with.

    You list six pitchers you believe should be ranked lower than Helsley. Since four of them are already ranked lower, let’s look at the two above him.

    11. Fernandez
    12. Hicks
    14. Helsley

    So, all this is about a difference of opinion over three ranking spots, from #14 to #11? Really?

    #30906
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    Rather than career ERA, lets look at what others “in the know (supposedly)” think about the three pitchers THIS season.

    League recognition (opposing coaches and league HQ):

    Fernandez – FSL Pitcher of the Week (twice), FSL All-Star
    Hicks – MWL All-Star
    Helsley –

    Cardinals organization recognition:
    Fernandez –
    Hicks – July system Pitcher of the Month
    Helsley –

    #30915
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    14NyquisT
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    That is a shallow argument… those are all subjective selections and POtW=spot analysis, sometimes based on 1 start.

    These are actual Game Start averages:

    Helsley:- PB 16 starts = 60.2—SPFD 4 starts – 59.5 (solid candidate May-June July) System POM.
    Hicks:– PEO 14 Starts = 52.6—–PB 5 starts – 61.4 At Peo (May-June-July) 10 starts =u 49.3
    Fernandez:PB 16 starts = 53.4

    Anyone can spin different arguments pro/con. You tried to show how superior Hicks and Fernandez are compared to Helsley. Some might buy that, some won’t.
    ps… I put Hicks ahead of Helsley and Fernandez right after him on my list.

    pps… you make it seem like you are anti-Helsley and people pick up on that. IMO, you do the same with overrating some prospects that you seem to talk up: JAGarcia-Seijas-Mayers-Seferina-Plummer. You have your pets, others like Helsley. These are my observations, we’re all fans of the Cardinals and their organization.
    One more thing, give some love to Valera once in a while. Sometimes it seems like you have him in the Helsley doghouse. Happy Friday 🙂

    #30916
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    Peak performances tell me what players can accomplish if they can sustain over a longer period. Players of the Month and all-star berths are not one-start items – they indicate what other knowledgeable baseball people see and think over a longer haul. To disregard them would make no sense.

    I rate Helsley 14th in the system, better ranked than most. Just because I can see strengths in others does not mean I am anti-Helsley. I feel he is placed appropriately.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 11 months ago by Brian Walton Brian Walton.
    #30919
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    14NyquisT
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    Yes, #14 is fair. My point was that you tried to show him as being quite inferior to the two other Ps noted. Showing nothing for Helsley is spin. At least you are consistent regarding Helsley.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 11 months ago by Avatar 14NyquisT.
    #30921
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    Though this is a Helsley thread, here are respective rankings of my supposed “pet” players.

      BA MLB TCN
    Adolis Garcia 7 midseason ineligible 13
    Alvaro Seijas 20 20 25
    Mike Mayers     30
    Darren Seferina     27
    Nick Plummer 23 28 45

    As you can see, in three of the five cases, my rankings are lower than the two national raters of prospects. I am higher on Mayers and Seferina than they are.

    #30927
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    14NyquisT
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    MLB’s list is bogus, as many know. IMO, all 5 are still overrated where you have them placed. One has been demoted, one put in the BP, one has had an up and down season… mostly down, one is in a very bad slump and hasn’t been a serious prospect anyway, and one can’t hit his weight.

    Anyway, you still missed my original point.

    #30933
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    No, I get your point. I just disagree. Data that supports your position is great, but contrary data offered as a different perspective (all of which I consider in my rankings) is written off as “spin” and “shallow”.

    P.S. If you did not want the discussion re-directed, you should not have brought up other players. If you challenge my impartiality (with questionable examples, by the way), I am going to explain myself.

    #30938
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    PadsFS
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    I thought Garcia’s name was Jose?

    #30940
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    His full given name is Jose Adolis (Arrieta) Garcia. He goes by Adolis, which is how the Cardinals organization list him, so that is the convention we follow here. Baseball-Reference, BA and MLB use his full name.

    Other Cuban examples include Jonatan/Jonathan Machado, Randy Arozarena/Arrozarena.

    #30944
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    CariocaCardinal
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    I have supported Helsley as much as anyone here. But to be fair, you cant ignore the ages of Fernandez and Hicks compared to Helsley.

    #30947
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    bccran
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    Okay, Brian, let’s bring this forward one more (and hopefully last) time.

    On September 12, 2016, Baseball America published its Minor League Classification All-Star teams.
    One player per position, 5 starting pitchers, and one relief pitcher for each level of the minors.

    At AAA, we had no one named.
    Trea Turner was the SS.

    At AA Tyler O’Neill was named one of the 3 outfielders. Cody Bellinger was one of the other 2 outfielders. Ozzie Ablies was the second baseman. That shows the quality.

    At High A, again, we had no players named. To show the quality again, Devers was the second baseman.

    At A, we had 2 players named –
    Alverez at 2B and Helsley at starting pitcher. Of the 5 All-Star starting pitchers at this level, Helsley was the only one of the 5 with a sub 2.00 ERA. He was at 1.61. There are 30 teams at this level. 150 starters. On paper, he was the best.

    At the short season level, Jeremy Martinez made it at catcher. Cordova made it at SS (ouch).

    Now, with supposedly some of the best “those in the know” at BA, we see the only pitcher in the whole Cardinals system honored in this way was Helsley.

    And yet “those in the know”
    at TCN have a number of starters with much higher ERAs rated above him. Questionable.

    #30949
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    Simply put, I do not accept career ERA as a primary factor in prospect ranking. We disagree in that matter.

    Last year’s BA prospect teams is one data point, likely a lesser one. The reason I say this is that when all was said and done, their overall 2017 Cardinals prospect ranking, done AFTER their 2016 all prospect teams, put Helsley OUTSIDE of their top 30 Cardinals. This is what went into print in their Prospect Handbook and is generally cited as their definitive ranking.

    I cannot tell if you are arguing that BA is a Helsley backer or under-rates him or both. Either way, it is not my place to defend them. I am confident I am on firm ground with our rankings here.

    P.S. It appears the substance of our difference here is that you have Helsley ahead of Fernandez and Hicks. Some others disagree and explain some of the reasons why. I have the three clustered within four ranking spots, so the differences as I see them are not huge. As a result, I am struggling to see what the fuss with my rankings is about.

    #30950
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    bccran
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    The fuss is that you come off in a condescending way at times. Put others down. Like you know more than everyone else. I know you’re not that way, but sometimes it seems so. Apologies for the frankness.

    #30951
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    PadsFS
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    I don’t see that at all.

    #30954
    Brian Walton
    Brian Walton
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    bccran, you are entitled to your opinion of me or anyone else for that matter, but it is out of place in this discussion of Helsley’s prospect ranking. I have done my best to answer questions and explain my rankings after being challenged. This is my chosen vocation and I take it seriously.

    #30972
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    bccran
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    Brian – you’re a good guy and do an extremely professional job on here. You just come down a little hard sometimes. That’s all. Now, let’s take a look at career WHIPs. Not the end all, but a measure.

    Weaver – 1.07
    Helsley – 1.10
    Gallen – 1.10
    Gomber – 1.13
    Flaherty – 1.18
    Hudson – 1.28
    Alcantera – 1.35
    Woodford – 1.36
    Hicks – 1.38
    Fernandez – 1.39
    Seijas – 1.42
    Jones – 1.52

    Just seems to me that we should be giving Gallen and Helsley a little deserved amor.

    #30975
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    bccran
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    Shoot, maybe instead of using career WHIP, we should bring it more current to only 2017 WHIP –

    Flaherty – 1.017
    Weaver – 1.056
    Helsley – 1.117
    Gallen – 1.134
    Gomber – 1.208
    Hudson – 1.286
    Fernandez – 1.339
    Hicks – 1.350
    Alcantara – 1.442
    Woodford – 1.455
    Jones – 1.528
    Oviedo – 1.530
    Seijas – 1.638

    Maybe a bunch of those guys below Helsley have been spending some time working on their secondary pitches.

    #31006
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    forsch31
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    Brian Walton

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    11. Fernandez
    12. Hicks
    14. Helsley

    So, all this is about a difference of opinion over three ranking spots, from #14 to #11? Really?

    Technically, it is 2 ranking spots. #13 would move up to #11 and Helsley to #12.

    #31007
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    forsch31
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    bccran

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    Brian – you’re a good guy and do an extremely professional job on here. You just come down a little hard sometimes. That’s all.

    You are saying this after some of the comments you have made regarding Voit and Helsley in the past.

    To be brutally honest, I wouldn’t have jumped in on some of these debates if you would have shown more respect to some of the posters’ opinions in the past.

    #31010
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    Brianpnoonan
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    Welcome to real life where inconvenient facts can be taken as harsh judgements….

    Sheesh people learn to take criticism… It was barely even criticism.

    P.s. 3 years is an eternity in prospect ratings. Helsley would have to dominate aaa late this year to even sniff fernandez’ prospect ranking.

    To give you perspective… Fernandez could screw around for two years before he hits aa and still be younger than helsley at aa. That’s why he is ranked higher. That gives him a significantly higher value even with production differences. It isnt like an era of 3.5 or so is god awful

    Length of career is valued for good reason.

    Ranking helsley higher is the rough equivalent of saying a freshman in college is less talented than a senior because the senior produces more… Even though the freshman is putting up good numbers with plenty of time to grow.

    Never mind that the freshman has tons of time to become an all pro and grow into his talent. Never mind that the freshman has every bit the talent if not more.

    Nothing to see here. Only one number matters.

    #32411
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    Cardinals27
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    I think ranking Helsley in the teens is fair. But Baseball America, among many prospect rankings, did not have ranked in the top 30. IN fact, if he can stay as a starter, couldn’t a case be made to rank him near 91-100 in overall rankings. He throws very hard, and has a better breaking ball now than Jason Motte ever did. And I think career ERA is important. In fact, after Memphis finishes their playoffs, I would like to see Helsley in the Cards bullpen. BUt I bet I won’t, since management keeps calling up others, instead of a reliever like Montgomery.

    #32415
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    CariocaCardinal
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    I actually had dellusions of Helsley going from Peoria last year to the Cardinal bullpen this year a la Rosenthal. Obviously didnt happen.

    I still will not be surprised if either he or Hicks is our closer by the end of next year.

    #32417
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    Brianpnoonan
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    I wouldnt either.

    The crazy thing is that closers who throw as hard as him are definitely top 100 guys… He is definitely underrated.

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