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Let’s send Fowler, Piscotty, Cecil and Gallen to the Giants for Samardjia and Melancon.
Samardjia and Waino provide veteran presence to the rotation while bringing up more of the rookies. Melancon solidifies the pen assuming he is healthy. Then try to come up with a package to trade for Yelich.
1B Carp, 2B Wong, SS Dejong, 3B Gyroko, LF Pham, CF Yelich, RF Grichuk
CMart, Samardjia, Wacha, Waino, Weaver or ReyesI’m also glad the Cubs didn’t get Verlander. Supposedly they were his first choice but they finally ran out of good prospects to deal.
Should be an interesting post-season. Of the 8 playoff teams I think 6 of them have a legitimate shot at winning the World Series, 7 if if you want to include Arizona.
MElancon and Samardija?
I get the idea but that seems an awful lot for an overpriced closer who has fallen off the cliff worse than Oh…and Samradijia is overpriced version of Leake with a few more Ks
Fowler hasnt been all bad…his contract isa bit much, but he hasnt been throw away bad…and im defintiely not losing him without freeing up money
Piscotty isnt really being paid all that much, and he has had one down year he is way more valuable than this IMO
Cecil started off terrible, was pretty dominant fora while and now he is just kindfo middling…way over priced for what we are paying but i dont see why anyone would want to pay him what we are unless we ate his salary and as it isnt worth dealing him away AND [paying him yo uho9ld him and try to get him right… id be all for moving him if we could find someone who woudl take the whole salary
I just think you are severely undervaluing those 3 players and extremely overvaluing the SF players, but i applaud the out of the box thinking…neither team gets to salary dump…just same salary with new players (its not exact but its close enough for the analogy)… only thing for me is that Fowler has had a good year…not great…not what we wanted…and probably not enough to warrant his salary but it isnt a bad year
as for Yelich…i love the idea of Yelich, but i dont see him being as useful without another bigger bat to go with him…but i’d give up a lot for him if i knew we coudl snag another bat for the middle of the lineup…he seems to be a good value and is trending up
How about?:
Yelich trade (Piscotty + Hudson + Bader + Sosa)
(maybe add Barraclough to the deal…and we add in some more)Hosmer signing (probably have to overpay a bit…7yr deal would take him to 35 i think)
I’m all for Yelich and Hosmer but we would still have to address the bullpen and rotation and I don’t know how much money our FO will be willing to spend. That is why the Giants trade might work. We would be taking on a lot of money but would be giving up some money also.
I really like Lance Lynn but do we really want him for 5 or 6 more years? We need a quality stopgap guy for a year or two until more of our highly acclaimed pitchers are ready. Samardjia isn’t great but he is only under contract 3 more years. If we really want a stopgap for one year we could bring Lackey back I suppose. After 2018 Lackey and Waino would be gone freeing up two more spots in the rotation.
Signing Lackey, Hosmer, and Wade Davis might be a good offseason but we still need to get rid of some of the OF clutter.
Three of alcantara reyes wainright and wacha in the bullpen fixes that. Reyes can’t start. Alcantara can come up slowly (maybe start later). and the other two probably should be relievers but can use one as a starter.
Martinez
Resign lynn
Wacha/wainright
Weaver
FlahertyRotation might need help during the year but it is good enough…. And that bullpen is potentially nasty.
Stopgap for a year wouldnt be the worst idea either…
Brianpnoonan, this could be an interesting study for you to read. (They call Tommy John surgery UCLR.)
“…the number of innings pitched and number of pitches thrown in the first full season as well as over a player’s career after UCLR are not associated with an increased risk having to undergo a revision UCLR.”
So that would say the TJS is no reason to limit Reyes’ innings in 2018.
However, they also say…
“…it takes the ones who do return to their pre-injury level of play an average of 15 months or longer to do so.”
So, the effectiveness of the TJS pitcher is down on the average during his first year back. Of course, the big question is “How much less?”. (Lynn would seem to be an exception.)
https://smwhome.net/2016/09/06/limiting-innings-pitched-after-tommy-john-surgery-for-mlb-players/
My bottom line is not to rule Reyes out of the 2018 rotation derby.
This also suggests that Lynn might be a better pitcher next year. The Cardinals ought to re-sign Lynn if the price is anywhere within reason. Wainwright can’t be counted on. With Lynn in the rotation, Weaver, Flaherty, or Hudson could be used as part of a trade package.
Or it could be for Lynn that because he had a longer recovery period, that is why he returned to his prior level of results sooner.
Would the Cardinals consider bringing Rosenthal back on a 2 year $8M deal? Pay him $1.5M next year while rehabbing then $6.5M in 2019?
Hey if reyes is throwing 5-6 strong later in the year then great.
I think you can count on him in the bullpen and anything more is a bonus. The article was interesting but I don’t want to get ahead of myself.
Optimism vs realism and all that
Well Rosenthal is not going to be healthy by Spring Training. The question is would they pay him a small salary for 2018 in anticipation of him being able to pitch by next September then all of 2019?
More offseason ideas:
Sign Lynn
Sign Hosmer
Trade Gyroko, Diaz, Carpenter, and Hudson to Angels for Simmons
Trade Fowler, Cecil, and Tui to Orioles for Britton2B Wong
CF Pham
3B DeJong
1B Hosmer
SS Simmons
C Molina
RF Piscotty
LF Grichuk
PThat would be the best defensive lineup we have had in years.
Rotation: CMart, Lynn, Wacha, Waino, Weaver or Flaherty
Pen: Britton, Reyes, Alacantara, Brebbia, Bowman, Lyons, and TuiA name to consider trading for;Kyle Seager 3B from the Mariners.He turns 30 in November and is signed thru 2022.Bats Lefty and averages 21 HRs 80 plus RBi yearly.Salary 2018- 18.5
2019-19.0. 2020-19.0 2021-18.0 2022-15.0I like Seager but why would the Mariners trade him? They have no depth behind him
Still…it’s a nice under the radar type of look
to me an under the radar guy would be Ryan Healy from the A’s…
The A’s are kind of jumbled up with infielders and like Chapman at 3b. Healy has big power is pretty young and his average isnt the worst…though he strikes out a ton and his fielding isnt great…he might be a nice value pick up for a youngster with big power…perhaps he transitions to 1b eventually I am not sure… i think the A’s are souring on him with the rise of Olson and Chapman…but even so they do have the DH and perhapas he better projects as DH anyways…
just another outside the box idea
also… i’d love Simmons but his value is so high right now i doubt we move for him…he is batting so much better than usual i dont think i woudl want to pay for this offense outburst when why i want him is for his glove
Hosmer signing i do like…
Britton? eh…
also…Gscott… every deal is trading players underperforming with big contracts… those are not easy to move without eating money and getting nothing back…as we saw with LEake…they all have good value on the Cardinals if they can turn around…and all of them (Carp (injured), Diaz (Sophomore slump), Fowler (not terrible stats but for the contract look worse), Cecil (same as Fowler)) All have shown they can be very big and productive players on a team.
PErhaps give them more than 1 “bad” year before throwing them away for nothing….as what you propose is someone taking out “bad” players and giving us good ones back…if they are so bad in your view and need to be off the team…why would anyone else want them?
I am all for Simmons and maybe even Britton…but those deals IMO are giving up way too much value, and wouldnt either be offered, or accepted if offered as it woudl show them just by offering it that those players were lost causes or albatrosses and not worth anything but salary dumps
Simmons deal?
Hudson + Diaz + Bader + another pitching prospect Gomber? Hicks? (overpaying for Simmons offense)Britton deal?
Pham + Sosa + Arozerana (or pitching prospect)A’s deal for Khris Davis? How about Davis and Healy?
Flaherty (we know they liked him from the almost Sonny Gray deal) + Piscotty (same) + Tuivalalathrow in signing Lynn and Hosmer
not saying any of these work…or they’d all work well together at all (in fact im sure theyd require other moves)…just throwing out ideas too!
Some more thoughts on trade targets
1.Ryan McMahon Colorado Rockies-blocked by Arenaudo.Has time at 1B-2B-3B.bats LH .A top 10 prospect for Rockies but they also have another 3B top 30 prospect coming up their system.2.Nick Castellanos RH bat 25 years old.25 HRs 80 RBI .252 BA 129 K 37 BB >306 OBP .455 SLG controllable under contract next 3 years i think.
3. Colin Moran 3B Astros.LH bat turns 25 October.Rookie blocked by Brugmann.rehabbing from fouling ball off cheekbone.Just some possible 3B bats for consideration.Castellanos could be a power bat but he does K a lot.
Moran and McMahon could be younger versions of Matt Carpenter.
JAGER- I had Ryon Healy on my list also for consideration.If you are looking for defensive upgrade at SS, look at Trevor Story in Denver. His defense is said to be above avg and still improving but he is having a down offensive year. Rockies have moved Desmond back to SS.
I don’t have a problem with eating some money to move Fowler or Cecil. The Orioles wanted Fowler when we signed him. They might still want him if we paid some of it down. Cecil would be a good change of scenery candidate and he is already familiar with the AL East. The O’s might be interested if we paid some of his contract down too. Britton only has one year of control left so we shouldn’t have to give up the farm to get him.
We shouldn’t have to eat any money to move Carp or Gyroko so I include those two along with Diaz and Hudson to get Simmons. I think that is a fair deal for both sides.
As for Khris Davis, don’t we already have him in Randal Grichuk?
As for Trevor Story, don’t we already have him in Paul DeJong?
i get the reasoning of Fowler to Baltimore…but i dont think they will want Cecil especially for his salary… im not sure how much we’d have to pay down…and to me THAT is the key in that kind of deal with them… so how much would you pay down? Fowler isnt as bad as everyone seems to think…and had we paid him a lot less wouldnt we be happy with it? and thus…if we pay what it woudl cost to make Fowler’s salary reasonable for another team wouldnt we be paying someone else to get the player we’d be happy with?
I think it is big overpay for Simmons…but we differ…you seem to extremely undervalue Gyorko and Carp’s worth…whiel i still think they have very good value…we differ…id like Simmons…but then what do we do with DejOng? 3b? 2b? 2b seems locked down with Wong…and are we making the offense better with Simmons in there? I’d be up for the defensive upgrade all day…but we’d need to add 2 big bats to that lineup i think to even out the potential decrease in offensive production shoudl Simmons come back down to earth with his bat…which is likely IMO
Khris Davis or Grichuk? I think we’d be very happy with Grichuk if he had 37 HRs instead of his 19…to go with his low average and Ks
Story and DeJong? tough call there…not sure who i like longer term…DeJong has yet to have a chance at a sophomore slump like Story…but Story’s injury might be a bigger deal to his performance that we can see
I dont think Castellenos is available…Tigers seem to really like him (i live in Detroit)…and with Verlander, MArtinez, Upton all leaving i think they are looking to Castellenos to become their middle of the lineup guy…
I’d love to snag McMahon….thoguh he seems to be switching to 1b…though how much that has to do with his defense and how much it deals with Arenado at 3b in tMLB is hard to discern…. still, i liek the look and i’d be very happy with a deal for him
Same goes for Moran…though i am less high on him but he seems about ready too…
Part of the reasoning for moving Fowler is to clear up a roster spot for the army of OF’s in the minors we have coming, who all play better defense than Fowler, and for the possibly of a big bat acquisition like Stanton or JD Martinez. I would be willing to eat $4M per year of Fowler’s contract. That’s a $12M savings per year. Our FO has admitted that Leake was a mistake so we might as well admit this one too. As for Cecil, I would eat $3M per year to move him.
My proposal for Simmons might be an overpay, but again, it clears money off the books to make room for a Stanton, JD Martinez, or Hosmer. We also get the best defensive player on the planet and can move DeJong to 3B. After 25 years we would have finally replaced Ozzie Smith.
Yes, Davis has 38 Hrs but he has struck out 182 times. He will make around $9M next year compared to around $2M for Grichuk so their relative value isn’t far off.
Someone submitted a comment in D. Goold’s chat suggesting the Cards go after Archer
and Colome in the offseason. He agreed this was the kind of blockbuster move they would look for, if not this move specifically.He also reiterated they would go after one of the Marlins OF’s.
I read all of that chat… many good questions about ’18 and, of course, a lot of good answers. Goold hinted that once the trade market opens up the Cards will have someone camped outside the Marlin’s offices waiting to pounce on one of their OFs… but likely not Stanton because of that sticky contract that he signed. I’m thinking Yelich to replace Fowler in CF for us.
Lynn’s name was also popular as well as Pham’s. The chat is a good next day read.
If we trade Carp during the offseason to upgrade somewhere else on the field, could Jose Martinez be our starting 1B?
So you are thinking Carp is worse than Jose at first? overall? defense and offense?
i dont… JOse has been hot… i like him but Carp still has major value and his on base skills are still top end even with a bad shoulder…
if Carp is hurt and has been hurt all year and you can drop SOME of his production due to that injury then I think you have to assume Carp is better than eh is this year…and even this year he isnt terrible… maybe he isnt a #3 hitter but he is still a very good hitter and probably better when healthy
Jose just doesnt have a track record that makes me want to throw away Carp to invest in…and whiel throw away isnt what you proposed..as a means to upgrade another position… if you upgrade another position by downgrading another what have you really gained? other than a little bit of money…
why not move someone else from a position of depth and not downgrade anything?
If Jose is so good why not trade him instead?
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