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Even if Carp were two or three years younger, it wouldn’t make sense to add him to the current Cardinal roster. Another lefty bat without a set defensive position? Don’t we already have Burleson, Gorman, and Donovan?
Given the StL roster composition, and the universal DH, it seems to me it’d be much more logical to add a bench guy who hits lefties well and can add something with his baserunning and/or glovework.
I guess the one thing you can say in Carpenter’s favor is, at least he’s someone experienced who is used to being a part-time player, and doesn’t need to play every day to keep his skills from atrophying — unlike Carlson and Donovan and Herrera and Burleson….
What a fouled-up roster.
Speaking as someone who absolutely hated the Mulder trade from the day it was made, I don’t really see the similarity. But rather than compare those two twirlers, I’d just like to articulate some of the reasons I want Cease for the Redbird rotation.
Over the past four seasons, Dylan Cease has made more starts than any pitcher in the majors. Cease 109, Gerrit Cole 108, Aaron Nola 108, and Jose Berrios 108. That’s the top four.
Cease just turned 28 last month, so time is on his side. Basically, with his age and track record, there’s no starter in the sport who is more likely to stay healthy over the next couple of seasons.
He’s coming off a down year to be sure, but over the past four years his cumulative ERA is 3.58. The aforementioned Gerrit Cole — irrefutably a star pitcher if not superstar — has a 3.08 ERA over those same four seasons. And if your ERA is exactly half a run worse than a star/superstar over an extended period of time, then you’re really, really good.
The team that trades for Dylan Cease gets two years for a grand total of around 20 million bucks. These days that qualifies as a true bargain, assuming he continues making his starts and posting an ERA in the mid-3’s.
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Anyway, if all of that is insufficiently persuasive, consider also that Cease finished his 2023 campaign with a September flourish, permitting just 5 runs across his last 4 starts while fanning 31 men in 23 innings. And per the Brooks Baseball website, Cease was throwing slightly harder in September than he was in April, June, or July, which can only be a good sign. (Mulder if memory serves was shellacked numerous times down the stretch, immediately prior to being acquired by the Birds.)
As for who would be traded away, I would NOT send more than one pitching prospect, that’s for sure. But trading Gorman or Donovan (and Burleson or Carlson or both for that matter) is darn near essential at this point. Because — just like 12 months ago — there aren’t enough at-bats to go around, for all the guys who need to play every single day due to either their ability, age, or experience. This is a terrible situation, just like 12 months ago, and the best remedy is to trade from useless position player depth to address the pitching shortfall which remains a borderline emergency in my opinion.
I give the trade a grade B.
Palacios will do more for Tampa over the next few years than Kittredge does for the Cards, I strongly suspect — but the Cards need pitching much, much more than they need outfielders. Especially with Victor Scott arriving soon; August I’m guessing.As for the Burleson discussion, I fully expect him to be underutilized and eventually released a la Juan Yepez in 12-24 months, or meekly traded for a sack of dented baseballs, a la Tyler O’Neill. Burly or Carlson should’ve been packaged with Donovan or Gorman (plus a prospect probably), to bring in a #2 starting pitcher type, e.g., Cease or Bieber. But instead we’ve still got our dysfunctional cluttered roster, and an aged marginal rotation. Thanks for nada, Mo.
Chaim Bloom: “Hey, Mo, I’ve looked at your team and I know what went wrong. Your manager stinks.”
Mozeliak: “Thanks, Chaim. I guess I’ll fire him.”
Chaim Bloom: “Also, look at my Red Sox record. I stink, too.”
Mozeliak: “Okay, you’re also fired.”
As Mo has said, “we need to reassess our prospect evaluation system.”
Evaluating established major leaguers incorrectly (and potential managers) has resulted in the decline of the past 7-8 seasons. The Birds underestimated their own young talent — committing in a panic to Fowler, Ozuna, and Contreras, as well as a plethora of over-the-hill relievers, instead of Bader, Herrera, and numerous others.
Again, I ask to those who don’t like Bloom, who would you have hired instead?
Thanks for a truly thorough response, Brian. The thing of it is, for us in the general public, potential front office hires can’t be perused through like free agent ballplayers because the vast majority of them are of course working behind the scenes in relative if not total obscurity. But for certain the first thing I’d do is look toward individuals in the smartest, winningest organizations. Like the Braves, for instance. Or perhaps the Dodgers or Brewers or even the Orioles. Not the Red Sox.
Bloom’s sustained failure in Boston makes him a non-starter to me. His elderly predecessor Dombrowski handed him a team that played .588 baseball for four years, which translates to about 95 wins per year. Being in such a tough division didn’t seem to bother him. Then Chaim the Yaley promptly led them to a trio of last-place finishes. A single ALCS appearance doesn’t remotely counterbalance that fact.
Bloom ran the Red Sox for 4 years.
They finished dead last 3 times.I entirely understand why he had a great reputation when the Carmines hired him. But I don’t know why anyone would want to hire him for any position of meaningful responsibility now. Just because someone is part of the Amazing Andrew Friedman GM Tree(TM) doesn’t guarantee they will excel at any job, any place, any time. Maybe middle management suits his brains/temperament the best.
The man failed dismally in Boston. Like, Ollie Marmol dismally. Is there some real tangible evidence that Chaim Bloom is going to make the Cardinals better?
1. August 14, 1971. Gibby’s no-no.
Bob Gibson no-hit the Pirates (11-0 blowout of the eventual World Series champs) on a Saturday afternoon. The 8-year-old me listened to the game by myself as Dad was out running errands. When he got back, just a few minutes after it ended, I ran to him to relay the news. Felt like Christmas morning.2. May 12, 1984. Mario Soto v. Silent George.
The Reds’ ace Mario Soto took a no-hitter into the 9th, his team clinging to a 1-0 lead. Dad and I were halfway home from a track meet 80 miles away, and listening on the car radio. With two outs, top 9, and the bases empty, George Hendrick came to the plate. First pitch, George crushes one but hooking, hooking foul. Next pitch, chin music. I mean, he put Hendrick on his pants. Very up and very in. Eventually the count reached 2-2…and then Hendrick smashed one over the left field fence to spoil the no-no, the shutout, and the Cincy win.3. Don’t know the exact date, but whenever it was that the club hired Herzog.
Honest. I was old enough by then to know good managers from bad ones from outstanding ones, and I’d admired Whitey’s Royals right alongside Weaver’s Orioles throughout the mid-late ’70s. Remember when the Cards used to hire excellent, proven MLB managers? God, I miss those days.Those may not be my absolute positive lifetime top 3, but I wanted to maybe jar someone else’s positive memories.
“The problem I have with development — and I don’t even wanna talk about the big league level right now — is organizations have gone out and hired everybody from high tech companies that can understand spin rate and horizontal movement, to the point where pitchers are more concerned about spin rate and horizontal movement than throwing a strike and pitching deep into games.”
“That is a tremendous disconnect within our sport. And I just don’t understand how so many smart people who are running teams haven’t figured that out! This is not rocket science. It’s still about throwing strikes.”
— Former GM Dan O’Dowd
That kind of sums it up for me. And I’ve had this argument with Goold during his P-D chats on more than one occasion. I say that teams (esp. my Cardinals) are prioritizing the wrong things when developing pitchers, and also when acquiring pitchers. And Goold says, no, they don’t prioritize velocity and movement. According to him they prioritize velocity, movement, location, durability, and more! And I have tried to explain to him that that’s not what prioritize means. You see, you cannot prioritize everything. That’s why it’s called prioritize. Goold is an eloquent idiot. But worse than that, his refusal to think critically about Marmol or the Redbird front office makes him effectively corrupt, a non-journalist.
So #1, I despise Derrick Goold, and #2, the understandable fascination with swing ‘n miss has congealed into a fixation for many teams. To their detriment.
“Having Edman play the OF irritates me too but the roster is too jammed at middle infield. Where does Gorman, Donovan, and Winn play? The roster being jammed is a FO problem.”
I agree about the front office, G.
But it’s still the manager’s job to get the most from his resources. So here’s what in my mind should be the alignment. Winn & Edman up the middle, Gorman as full-time DH until Goldy leaves, at which time Nolan takes over at first base. Center field can be manned competently by Carlson or Noot until Victor Scott is ready. If Scott flounders badly in AAA, the Cards can look for a short-term CF fix either at the trade deadline this year, or next winter.(Heck, what they ought to do right now about CF is go hard after free agent Jung-hoo Lee, who looks like a Korean Bobby Abreu, but can play Center. He’s projected by at least one source [McDaniel, ESPN] to only get $13M per year and that’s a pittance for a 25-year-old with his resume.)
Or Donovan can be DH this year and Gorman can be packaged with a mid-level prospect or two for Dylan Cease. Then the rotation could be presentable in 2024.
Re Arenado and Goldy, it’s axiomatically insane for a Gold Glove defender to ever be DH. The position exists so that bad fielders can hit. Not so that great fielders can get so-called “half-days-off.” You know how many times Mookie Betts was Dodger DH in 2023? Zero. In 2022? Zero. 2021? Also zero. And that’s a pretty smart organization.
Don’t get me started on O’Neill or I might really tell you what I think of Marmol’s managerial stylings.
The club’s best defensive middle infielder is going to play outfield.
The Platinum Glove-winning 3B and Gold Glove 1B will continue to take turns as Designated Hitter.
The team’s only Gold Glove OF is so despised by his manager that a trade seems a fait accompli.No wonder the defense has collapsed. Thanks, Ollie!
“Isn’t anyone going to mention how disappointing this is?”
Disappointing draft slot? Oh, rest assured that Royals, A’s, and White Sox fans are mentioning it right now. And will be until the draft. 😉
I admit I naively didn’t realize this would also determine the total draft budget allocation per team. In that regard, yes this is grossly absurd and unfair — especially to the aforementioned trio of 100-loss also-rans.
“Edman is as good of a defensive
centerfieldersecond baseman as there is.”There. Fixed it.
I honestly believe that no other Cardinal manager since the 1970’s would move a mediocre-hitting Gold Glove middle infielder (in his defensive prime) to the outfield. Only Ollie could rationalize a counterproductive move like this.“This team can win the Division in 2024 with what they’ve got.”
I don’t understand this sentiment. The Cards just finished last for the 2nd time in a century, 20 games under .500, and for some mysterious reason they return their awful manager and his leading coaches. Their Pythagorean record in 2023 was also 20 games below .500.
There was no bad luck involved. They did not suffer a rash of injuries to important contributors. They have added one well above average pitcher and a pair of 36-year-olds who combined for a 5.00+ ERA last year.
I don’t see how on earth that adds up to more than 78-80 wins. I’d really, really like to, but I can’t see it.
24. Noah Mendlinger (Pugs and I are right and everyone else is wrong. Or we’re just stubborn.)
25. Hancel Rincon
26. Zach LevensonAs so often happens with Palm Beach, Levenson’s Home/Road splits demand perusing. Away from Roger Dean Hitter’s Graveyard Stadium, Zach authored a tremendous slash line of .297/.365/.547.
The bad news is, that line represents just 74 trips to the plate. If it were say, 200+ PAs, he’d have to be ranked inside the Redbird top 20, mayyybe even top 15. Could be another one of those early/mid-round college steals the Cardinal development guys have specialized in drafting over the past 8-10 years.
21. Mendlinger
22. Rom
23. BaezI’d forgotten how young Josh Baez is, until I glanced again at his Baseball-Reference page. In fact if he were merely one week younger, in “baseball years” he’d have been a teenager playing at Palm Beach. Quite the challenge, that.
I hate when prospects fan a lot, and that certainly describes Baez (194 K’s in just 146 games). But he’s a polished base stealer already — 45 of 51 — and a solid defender by reputation. So cutting down on the strikeouts might be the only truly significant change he needs to make, going forward.
“Why do we skip straight to Mendlinger over Dunn?”
Speaking just for myself, it’s an age thing, as the difference is profound. Dunn turns 27 next month, and Mendlinger was an age-appropriate 22 in AA for most of the 2023 season. Dunn needed three seasons in AA before he finally was an above-average bat there, at age 26. (The age thing is why I’m at least mildly skeptical on Pages, also. Though backstops admittedly can blossom late.)
Dunn at 22 was a banjo hitter in High-A.
Mendy at 22 hit very well one level higher.19. Mendlinger
20. HoneymanI like Honeyman’s well-rounded skillset. It’s weird that he had as many HBP as walks over the ’22/’23 seasons, but any way he can get on base is OK with me.
17. Hansen
18. Noah MendlingerAt 22, Noah “mini-Donovan” Mendlinger started the 2023 season in High-A where he posted a 150 OPS+ for a few weeks, forcing a promotion to Double-A. Once there, he got off to a roaring start — but then struggled so badly in June that I mentally wrote him off (.157 average and .186 slugging).
Well, the little guy adjusted and hit roughly .320/.450/.390 over the final three months in Springfield. With a tremendous walk/strikeout ratio of 44-to-28. Yeah, 50% more walks than whiffs and a .450 on-base percentage.
He’s apparently a decent defender; nothing special but very versatile. Looks like an uber-elite bench man to me, with a chance to start somewhere if he can add just a bit of power to his profile…or simply maintain his elite walk rates, but that’s a tall order with his punchless profile. Just another part of the outfield/second base glut right now, but Noah’s got a lot going for him with that rare level of plate discipline.
You don’t have to strike people out in order to get people out.
The pitching staff was doing just fine, pretty much every year, until Mike Maddux left. I mean, until Marmol drove Mike Maddux away. (Or it’s just a coincidence that the Redbird hitting and pitching coaches both quit after one season under the Boy Genius manager.)
Anyway, thanks BikeMike for your earlier post pointing out the mutually advantageous aspects of a Yoshi Yamamoto signing. I predict that in 2024 he’ll cost only slightly more than the combo of Lynn & Gibson while producing at least 3 WAR more than the two of them combined.
I know I yammer on about Yamamoto, but get this: he’s won three straight Japanese MVP Awards — not just their version of the Cy Young, but MVP — and he’s younger than Zach Thompson and Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Hicks and Luken Baker and Brendan Donovan. He’s 3+ years younger than Edman & Helsley & Knizner. His combo of tender age and lengthy established track record of exceptional efficiency/durability defies description. But here’s just one snippet: he’s been a full-time starter since turning 20, and every single season he’s averaged more than 7 innings per start.
I apologize. I know, it’s a Sonny Gray thread. And there’s nothing wrong with signing Sonny Gray, if you’re looking to simply replace the performance of Jordan Montgomery. But Gray needed to be the second-best pitcher the Birds acquired this winter. Not the best-by-far, which obviously appears to be the case.
“Going to be real interesting to see how much Yamamoto gets; I have seen anywhere from $200 million up to $280 million over the length of his contract….plus the posting fee to Orix.”
If I were the Redbird front office I’d start at $250M for 9 years and be prepared to go as high as $350 for 12 seasons. And I’d offer more than that if necessary, provided Yamamoto would agree to significant deferrals a la the big Scherzer contract of nearly a decade ago. It is entirely possible that Yoshi Yamamoto is already the best pitcher on the planet and has been for the past three years — he’s 25 and his worst ERA since turning 22 is 1.68. In the season just ended it was a Gibsonesque 1.16.
Even if Yamamoto were signed for a dozen years, he’d be no older when that contract runs out than Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson are right now. Given his age & talent & track record of durability, I daresay there hasn’t been an opportunity for a free agent pitcher like this since Marvin Miller took the Union reins. Given any inflation at all over the next 8-10 years, a 9/250 signing could prove a bargain if YY stays generally healthy.
“I want Yamamoto too but so do some other teams. If you put all your eggs into one basket to get him and then you don’t, then we end up with just Lynn and Gibson, then you basically get nothing.”
I see what you’re saying, Willie — but what this basically translates to, is that Sonny Gray (and the Lynn & Gibson signings for that matter) is a panic move. And panic moves usually end in disaster.
Other notable panic moves: Dexter Fowler, Greg Holland, Marcell Ozuna, Willson Contreras.
I think Marilyn Green speaks for many of us fans. A team that just finished in last place for the second time in 100 years has more or less had a business-as-usual offseason.
The Cards just paid $75M plus a very high draft pick plus half a million bucks in International signing money, all for a 34-year-old starter who pitches like an Ace exactly once every four years (2015, 19, 23). Yuck.
Meanwhile some lucky fanbase will be getting a 25-year-old twirler who pitches like a combo of Maddux & Smoltz every single season — and he won’t cost any draft picks or anything else but money. Too bad it won’t be us Redbird fans.
I wanted Yamamoto, Cease, and Freeland. A #1, #2, and #3 whose average age is 27.
Instead, for very similar money, we got a #2, #4, and #5 whose average age is 35. Terrible. Unless they change the manager & pitching coach, the Cards are at best now a .500 team that finishes third in the division.In fact, at this point the Pirates are the only team in the division that I would bet even money the Birds finish ahead of in 2024. This offseason has been a disgrace.
13. Crooks
14. ChoI like Cho as a top 200-250 overall prospect right now, with an excellent chance to move into the 100-150 range this year thanks to his balanced skillset and sturdy plate discipline markers. With good health and a little better contact or power, he could be a Nootbaar type by the time he’s 23, 24 years old. (Cho’s father instructed him years ago to concentrate on controlling the strikezone and letting power develop organically, in its own time. Smart father. Very smart.)
Also, thanks for the kind words, Pugs!
