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Is he the worst manager to win a championship? Roughly 75 different managers have won a World Series, and managed at least 500 regular season games. Martinez is dead last in career winning percentage. Chuck Tanner & Ozzie Guillen were no dugout geniuses, but at least they didn’t make the bottom three.
Martinez .446
Fred Haney .454
Rogers Hornsby .463(Baseball-Reference lists manager Jose Maria Fernandez at .462, but that was a Negro Leagues title [1947 New York Cubans, led by actual Cubans Luis Tiant and Minnie Minoso], so I don’t count it the same as MLB. The lazy feelgood direct blending of MLB and Negro League stats for both players and managers at B-Ref is why I don’t have an exact count on how many managers have won the World Serious.)
“But to counter my own comment, perhaps some guys press a little when hitting first, thinking about the pressure to get on base. Still you only truly ‘lead off’ once a game. After that it can be anyone.”
Well said, that first part. Plenty of players, past and present, have expressed a strong personal preference for certain lineup slots, based on the role — real or perceived — that they are being asked to fill at that particular place. It’s human nature. Human baseball nature anyway.
At any rate, I’ll just add this, then leave this thread to kinder voices than my own.
Hitter #1 has a .256 average, a .733 OPS, and a mediocre BB/K ratio of .53 across 653 plate appearances.
Hitter #2 has a .298 average, an .800 OPS, and an excellent BB/K rate of .73 in 1,179 trips to the plate.Batter #1 is Donovan, career, at leadoff. And as you’ve probably guessed, #2 is Brendan everywhere else in the batting order. No matter what anyone’s personal feeling are re the Redbird skipper, isn’t it clear by now, that Brendan Donovan is just not the same when he’s slotted at the top of the lineup?
(By the way, when Donovan leads off a game, he’s walked 8 times in 141 trips to the plate. With 33 whiffs. He’s simply not himself in that role.)
“I must also say that even though you are one of the long time and legendary posters on this site the fact that 99.9% of your posts are veiled in another attempt to slam Marmol does diminish your credibility a bit, which is unfortunate.”
That estimate sounded a bit on the high side, so I checked. I’m not even batting .500 this year! I’ve authored 17 posts in 2025 and only 8 of them slandered our manager; I will try and do better in the future.
Sincerely, though, I will cite Marmol’s plusses more in the future, and return myself to that pristine credibility to which I’ve become so comfortably & complacently accustomed.
To wit. Ollie has done a fine job with pitching changes this year. Call it grade B. Give him a grade B+ with relievers and B- with the rotation. Pulls his starters too soon sometimes, but that’s become something of the industry norm at this point, and you can’t criticize a manager much for hewing to the fashions.
Thanks so much for all of the responses, guys. I have a few points of rebuttal.
In my opinion, some folks here are perhaps fixating overly on the leadoff slot in and of itself, rather than looking at the Redbird offensive production On The Whole. Brendan Donovan simply must be in an RBI spot, because the 4-year veteran has shown himself over and over to be a terrific hitter with men on base — and particularly multiple men on base. And he’s mediocre with the bases empty. For Donovan and thus for the team, he must hit in the 3-6 range, where ribbies reside. (But probably not cleanup, as he’s been bad there.) This is particularly true with Ivan Herrera out of the lineup.
Option one: put Nootbaar back at leadoff. Pretty simple. A recent intense slump doesn’t outweigh every single thing that came before. Lars has the same career OPS at leadoff as he does overall (and better BB/K numbers at leadoff). And he hits as well with the bases empty as he does with men on, for his career. He ain’t Rickey Henderson but he’s fine there. Marmol seemed to understand this when he installed Lars at leadoff in April, but now he’s forgotten it. If there’s a slump you can ride it out. If Willson Contreras gets to stay at cleanup regardless of production, then we can do the same with Noot at leadoff, can’t we?
Option two: try one of the young guys. The fact that someone like Masyn Winn or Victor Scott has a lower OBP than ideal doesn’t disqualify them until they’ve been given a couple of weeks at leadoff, to see how they react. There are plenty of hitter who perform better at some lineup slots than others, so we don’t really know how Masyn or Victor might respond. (Masyn’s been really good at the 2-hole, so I’d prefer to leave him there, obviously. But at leadoff, Victor might blossom a bit, youneverknow.)
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By the by, I didn’t get into all of this before because (a)I know how my posts can get long-winded; and (b)I honestly didn’t expect much feedback, much less pushback.
And yeah, Brian, I do dislike Ollie personally and as a manager. The latter very much, for innumerable reasons. But I still bet the Birds to win the Pennant and the Series this year, as the odds were just too generous. So nothing would make me happier than to see Ollie sprayed with champagne in October.
And again, thanks for the myriad responses, folks.
“I’m not offering up any criticism towards Brendan, I’m simply a little surprised that a player who’s hit the baseball exceptionally well all season long hasn’t accumulated a few more RBI’s.”
Donovan has done just fine with men on base, with an .804 OPS this year (.843 for his career). I think we’re forced to conclude that there just haven’t been that many men on base for him this year.
By the way, once again Donovan is hitting leadoff, and it still ain’t working. Just .244 so far and a .639 OPS since Marmol returned him yet again to the #1 slot.
Donovan, career, .730 OPS with the bases empty.
Men on base, .843.
Multiple men on, roughly .900.This guy has zero business hitting leadoff. But that won’t stop Ollie, no sirree. As he’s done every season, Boy Genius manages the team based on things happening in his own head, rather than realities on the field.
But to leave on a positive and completely unrelated note, Nathan Church since May 1 is now batting .366/.429/.623 across AA and AAA, with just 16 strikeouts in 196 trips to the plate. Yeah, he’s turning 25 in a couple of weeks, but that exceptional plate discipline, plus his solid defense and baserunning, makes him a genuine prospect. (Now watch him wear a golden sombrero tomorrow.)
“I think VSII, Nootbaar, and Helsley all own that L. Nootbaar especially had a rough game. Ollie gets partial credit for choosing Vilade to pinch hit.”
Yup. And don’t forget the “strategy” of having Victor Scott NOT steal third base in the 10th. Really dumb, especially once there was one out.
By the way, this was to my knowledge the 8th time this season Victor has found himself on second base with one out. Maybe the most obvious of base stealing situations, right? Stealing 2nd with two outs, and stealing 3rd with one out, are the two times you should *always* send an elite base thief. And yet VSII has only tried for third base once. Once. A 94.4% base stealer, and he’s tried once. Because his manager apparently believes in an excruciating overabundance of caution on the base paths.
(By the way. Identical situation for the Cubs about a week ago. Crow-Armstrong on 2nd, one out, extra innings, Cubs down a run. Counsell sent him on the first pitch. Because Counsell is brilliant? Because he’s crazy reckless? No, because it just makes sense to try it in that situation. It simply makes sense, if you have a really good base stealer.)
Marmol is doing something unusually stupid with Victor Scott and Masyn Winn that I don’t believe any other manager has done with any other major leaguers in the past 40 years or so. Specifically, I don’t believe any other elite minor league base stealer has seen his stolen base attempts plummet like these guys, upon reaching MLB. (For the purposes of this assertion, I define “elite minor league base stealer” as someone who in his minor league career steals 50+ bases per 150 games, with at least an 80% success rate. Or 40 steals and 85%. Or 30 thefts and a 90% rate. That’s an elite minor league base stealer. And it describes both Winn and Scott.)
I cannot prove this, because one cannot prove a negative, but I believe that every single elite minor league base stealer who has become an MLB regular in the last forty or so years, has NOT seen his stolen base attempts precipitously decline like Scott & Winn. And most amazingly of all, thanks to two rule changes — larger base sizes and restrictive pickoff limits — we are living through an era when MLB stealing is easier than in decades!
I would like to offer 100 bucks to the charity of your choice, to anyone who can find JUST ONE elite minor league base stealer since 1985, who has gone on to accrue at least 2,000 MLB plate appearances, and seen his steal attempts per plate appearance drop by more than 60% after reaching MLB. Besides Scott and Winn, that is.
I believe that Marmol is truly breaking new ground here. But please, someone prove me wrong. Maybe you can make me despise Ollie a little bit less. It’s no fun hating your team’s manager this much, no matter how blindingly incompetent he is.
“Minor league catching numbers don’t give a lot of insight.”
I missed that episode, Albert. By “catching numbers,” are you referring to a specific skill like gunning runners or framing pitches? Because I’m sure that some minor league catching statistics are much more predictive than others — just as the stats with pitchers & hitters. Yadi for example threw out 46% in the minors, 40% in MLB. On the other hand, Yadi’s passed ball/error totals in the minors were unexceptional, and in the majors he was of course outstanding.
Apologies if anyone else already brought this up in a different thread, but Leonardo Bernal warrants a special mention these days.
May 8th to June 8th, Leo accrued 99 plate appearances, with an exceptional slash line of .382/.434/.685 and just 9 strikeouts. (Also 9 walks, 7 homers, and 6 doubles.) Overall, the 21-year-old has lifted his AA line for this season to .301/.383/.542 (151 OPS+), with a sturdy 21/25 BB/K ratio in 175 trips to the plate. He’s combining the excellent power of his 2022 season with the superlative plate discipline of his 2023 campaign.
Leo’s always been built like Campy. Now he’s hitting like him, too. The Cards have the best prospect bunch of pitchers & catchers (when the former group is healthy, that is) and Bernal may turn out to be the best of them all. He can really hit, he led all of High-A with a 35% caught stealing last year, and he’s even better at 38% this season. Definite top 40-50 overall prospect. The errors and passed balls are slightly elevated, and for me that’s all that’s keeping him from consideration for #1 Redbird farmhand.
Ian Petrutz had a very nice game yesterday for Peoria, and since mid-April the 22-year-old outfielder is hitting .348/.463/.551. Very impressive, right? But my favorite part, during this protracted hot streak he’s only fanned 7 times in 109 trips to the plate (and 14 walks).
I don’t wanna get everyone’s hopes up too high, but he looks like he could be one of those Plate Discipline Guys, like Matt Carpenter, Nootbaar, Donovan, who wildly exceeds his draft position and prospect ranking.
Maybe someone out there has seen him play and can offer insight on the glovework?
Thanks for the kind word, Jnevel.
I was probably the high man on Bernal, that’s true. Also at various times high man on Rainiel Rodriguez and Daric “weirdest career” Barton and Andrew Knizner and Yadi Molina and Bryan Anderson and Carson Kelly and Eli Marrero and Ivan Herrera and Jimmy Dale Crooks III and probably Pedro Pages a few years back. When it comes to farmhands, I’m a sucker for Cardinal catchers when they hit and aren’t too old.I could see the Bernal/Pages arrangement you suggest, roughly 70/30. The real question is, would that be history’s heftiest catching combo? And would Marmol somehow be forced to play Leo Bernal at second base for a game due to his incompetence, as happened with Pages this year?
Forgive my piggybacking on your comment, Albert.
Leonardo Bernal since the 8th of May is batting .356/.415/.699 (7 homers) with 8 walks and just 8 strikeouts across 82 trips to the plate. Needless to say, that combo of imposing power and elite contact is exceedingly rare in a hitter young for his league, even over a relatively short stretch of games. I don’t know if it’s any rarer to be achieved by a switch-hitter, but it’s certainly nice that Leo bats from both sides. Anybody for a fat Ted Simmons?
Ixan Henderson now has 9 starts in Double-A.
Last year Quinn Mathews made 9 starts there.Let’s compare.
Henderson has allowed 38 hits in 48 innings, with a 56-to-16 K/BB ratio, 2 homers, and a 2.27 ERA.
Mathews permitted 35 knocks across 52 frames, with a 70-to-15 K/BB, and 3 homers, with a 2.41 ERA.Ixan has allowed a .276 slugging %. Mathews was .277.
Henderson has required 15.5 pitches per inning, and Mathews 16.0.Henderson is a few months younger now than Mathews was last year at Springfield. They both dominated in Low-A and High-A. They both throw with the wrong hand.
I couldn’t tell you how dazzling Henderson’s heater is, or what’s his best offspeed offering. And I don’t think for a moment that he’s truly equivalent to Mathews as a prospect. But I do think Ixan is a very real prospect, and among Redbird farmhands he should be considered a viable future rotation candidate more than anyone not named McGreevy, Mathews, or Hence.
Ha, good old FanHome. Back when you rubbed two sticks together to use the internet.
Note on the Player of the Day, Rainiel Rodriguez. First four innings: struck out twice, permitted a stolen base, and committed catcher’s interference. Next five innings: two doubles, a single, and a sac fly. And two runners gunned down. Now that’s a full day.
No reason to rush the 18-year-old, but I’m sure looking forward to his full-season A-Ball debut. Just wish the club would give him some playing time at another position once in a while, like the hot corner for example. As others have mentioned, this franchise has an overabundance of top backstop prospects and a shortage nearly everywhere else.
Gorman and Walker should be sent to AAA together, pronto. (Should’ve been weeks ago, in fact.) Removes a bit of the embarrassment from each by doing it in tandem. Call up Saggese and Siani, or perhaps a Memphis relief arm. Granillo has needed a season of adjustment at each level, so bring him up now, use him 15 or 20 times in Woodford Situations, i.e., zero leverage, and get him ready to be a good MLB reliever next year. Of course, since Marmol is incompetent, if you give him Granillo, he’d probably use him first time out in the 8th inning of a tied game….
Anyway, Jordan & Nolan are both still young enough to markedly improve their plate discipline — especially Walker. The way they’ve each hit since the start of 2024, they are wasted roster spots. And their long-term potential is being diminished every day they spend pointlessly struggling in the majors.
Does anyone in the organization honestly think Gorman can hit his way out of a two-season funk by starting 10 games a month? Does anyone honestly think Walker’s pitch recognition is any better than it was in the spring of 2023?
This leaves Bud Black as the only MLB manager I would NOT trade Ollie Marmol for. And how long can Black last?
I’m just glad Shelton was able to stick around long enough to gift us the Shugart debacle the other night. Refresher: Shelton brings in a reliever (Chase Shugart) with bases empty and a one-run Pirate lead in the 6th. Walk, homer, single, single, single. Five batters faced, five reached safely. And Shelton still left him in (to give up a double that put the Birds comfortably ahead). Then, with the game now largely out of reach, he finally removed the reliever.
I’m really gonna miss Derek Shelton. Don’t know how Ben Cherington keeps his job, but that’s another question.
“What the Cards really need is one of Walker, Gorman, or Burly to actually develop into a true #4 or #5 hitter.”
They’re all three still swinging at the exact same garbage pitches they’ve been swinging at for the past 3 years — no sign, not even a scrap of improvement in pitch selection by any of them, that I can see. Burly swung at a 3-2 pitch that was 8-10 inches above the strikezone. With two men on base and the pressure ALL on the opposing twirler, Gorman nevertheless offered at multiple terrible pitches when ahead in the count.
That AB encapsulated Nolan’s ongoing awful plate approach: when he should’ve been at his most selective (ahead in the count 2-0), he instead behaved like a batter in an 0-2 hole. Disgraceful display that reflects poorly on Gorman, Brant Brown, and the entire organization, really. You hear about “professional at-bats”? That was the opposite of one.
“Yeah, the force at HP was nonexistent from the time the baseball was put into play. Bad decision by the 2B’man.”
Yup. Brendan cost the team a run by his boner. A lot of braindead baseball tonight (birdbraindead?). Arenado’s inexcusable running blunder, the manager’s repeated ongoing timidity re the tactical use of the stolen base, and of course Donovan’s aforementioned bizarre fielding choice.
If Victor Scott steals third base with one out in the 2nd inning, Masyn Winn’s fly ball is a sac fly. (If you have an incredible basestealing weapon, what better time to use it than man-on-second-and-one-out?) If Siani runs for Walker in the 8th and steals second, then Victor’s bloop single plates the go-ahead run.
And one other one, that’s more a quibble. Removing Herrera after six innings felt weird at the time, with such a small lead in the game. And whaddayaknow, Pages came up with two on and two out in the 9th….
For an incompetent manager, Marmol’s actually done a fine job through four games with pitching changes and lineup construction. I’d give him a B+ or A- for both. But tonight, the granular in-game stuff? Wow, he was absolutely terrible. Wrecking ball terrible.
“I know there is apprehension about voting for lower level guys, but I try to ask myself who I would rather than in a trade for my prospect rankings. If you ask me if I want Ian Bedell or Yairo Padilla in a trade, I will chose Padilla. At this point, even the upper level pitchers don’t have more than a small chance to be a contributor, so I will choose the upside of a lower level young guy.”
Very well said.
Moreover, by choosing prospects at #15/16 in a roughly average farm system like the Cardinals, all that is implied is that these particular prospects rank approximately in the 450-500 range among all farmhands in the minors. In my opinion that’s not so bold at all, really, even at the Dominican Summer League level. I’ll take:#15 Rainiel Rodriguez
#16 Yairo Padilla“TCN just recently selected Padilla at #38 and those people have a better idea on how the rookie leagues rate their players. I’m thinking that although Padilla’s stats were terrific the 17-year-old still has a long road ahead of him.”
TCN ranked Padilla #38, and Baseball America ranked him #5. While I’m sure both evaluators had some sound reasons behind those insanely divergent rankings, I suspect that the shrewdest prediction for Padilla lies somewhere in between.
“I can’t vote for the DSL guys yet because none of us has any real clue about their skills. They are complete guesses based off untrustworthy data.”
This feels like a fairly severe overstatement. With the combination of scouting reports and player performance, we know at least as much about DSL players as anyone knows about American high schoolers when they’re drafted — and some of those kids are given an awful lot of do-re-mi, based on nothing more than scouting reports and low-level player performances.
Anyway, as I mentioned in a previous post in this thread, Baseball America’s Ben Badler established some 15 years ago that DSL hitting performances do indeed have a chunk of predictive value, once we account for both (1)age and (2)plate discipline markers, i.e., their BB/K ratios. That was Badler’s conclusion back in 2009 and I have no reason to think that anything has changed in the past 15 years.
#13 Rainiel Rodriguez
Rodriguez hit .345/.462/.683 this year. And that was after a sluggish start to his campaign.
From June 18 to season’s end (Aug. 20), the 17-year-old backstop batted .355/.490/.745 with 60% more walks than whiffs. And those latter numbers were supported by a reasonable, repeatable .337 BABIP in case you were wondering.#14 Yairo Padilla
Shortstop Padilla is Baseball America’s #5 Cardinal farmhand, and their overall #2 Dominican Summer League prospect, thanks to his speed (22 steals in just 36 games), defense (best infielder + best infield arm in the entire organization, per BA), and hitting potential, as Yairo slashed a solid .287/.391/.404 in an enormous 50-team league that overall hit a rather dismal .238 with a .701 OPS.
“Great seeing Bobby Reed back in the Cardinal Nation dugout! Bobby’s absence is akin to The Bambino being MIA from the ’27 Yankees, Stan the Man nowhere to be found on the ’47 Cards squad….”
Thanks, Pugs. But I’m more like the shark from Jaws. You never know when I’ll show up, and I kinda ruin your day when I do.
“Thanks, Bob, for bringing these guys both up to the group. I wasn’t sure what to do with either. The DSL is so difficult to rank given the uneven level of competition and the fact we never get to see any of these guys play. I read all the same info from BA.”
You’re welcome, J.
If you have a BA subscription (I don’t, I’m a cheapskate) you may be able to access an old Ben Badler article from March of 2009 entitled “Mining for Prospects in the DSL.” In that analysis of DSL hitting performances, Badler found that Dominican batting numbers were much more predictive of eventual MLB success than expected — particularly for young hitters with sturdy BB/K markers. If I recall, his article did not address DSL pitchers.Heck, with this Twitter gizmo, or whatever the cool kids are calling it now, you might even be able to contact Badler directly and ask him for a copy. At any rate, if DSL guys are considered eligible by all of the public ranking services, I think we oughtta do the same.
#11 Rainiel Rodriguez
#12 Yairo PadillaI don’t really want to list a pair of Dominican Summer League guys here. But Rodriguez was the best-hitting backstop in all the minors this year, and Padilla just received an almost unprecedented amount of praise in last week’s new Baseball America prospect list. Now a few details.
Of all qualified minor league catchers, Rainiel led in OPS+ with a 186. Second was 161. For perspective, the 17th catcher was at 137. Thus, the gap between #1 and #2 was greater than the gap from #2 to #17.
Rodriguez led all catchers in batting average by 21 points, and in slugging by 80 points. And he fanned less than he walked. And finally, his errors (3), passed balls (4), and caught stealing percentage (32%) were all boringly fine.
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Padilla is very young, half a year younger than Rodriguez — who himself was young for the DSL. If Yairo were 5 days younger, then 2024 would’ve been his age-16 season in “baseball years.” And yet, he posted a solid 121 OPS+ while playing shortstop, where apparently he is confidently projected to stick. At least per BA. Here’s where they think Padilla stands among Redbird farmhands:
Best Defensive Infielder, Padilla.
Best Infield Arm, Padilla.
Fastest Baserunner, Padilla.
Best Athlete, Padilla.From last week’s BA chat:
Geoff Pontes
4 days ago
The feedback has been off the charts most scouts viewed him as the second-best DSL prospect behind Jesus Made in 2024. He ranked that way in the list Josh Norris put out back on October 7th. He’s a plus athlete, defender at short, plus-plus runner with excellent bat-to-ball (12.6% z-miss) and swing decisions (low chase, higher swing, high heart swing). All we need to see is power and the reports from the offseason camps all say he’s the standout player in camp.Baseball America has Yairo the #5 Cardinal prospect, and Rainiel #11. That’s too high for Padilla, but somewhere in the 10-15 range feels absolutely reasonable to me.
And don’t ask me what “high heart swing” means. Maybe that’s another new metric! Hurray!
#10 Chen-Wei Lin
Excellent season overall, but it’s the unusually strong finish that persuades me.
Over his last 8 starts: 45.1 IP, just 29 hits, and a sterling 57-to-9 strikeout-to-walk tally. One homer, an ERA of 1.19, and an opponents’ OPS under .500.Yeah he’s kinda old, and it’s a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s league, but that’s a lot to like — not to mention he could actually lose significant velocity and still have the minimum daily required fastball for a mid-rotation MLB starter. I look forward to watching him in Peoria next year.
