- This topic has 106 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 1 year ago by
.
-
Posts
-
“I’m not offering up any criticism towards Brendan, I’m simply a little surprised that a player who’s hit the baseball exceptionally well all season long hasn’t accumulated a few more RBI’s.”
Donovan has done just fine with men on base, with an .804 OPS this year (.843 for his career). I think we’re forced to conclude that there just haven’t been that many men on base for him this year.
By the way, once again Donovan is hitting leadoff, and it still ain’t working. Just .244 so far and a .639 OPS since Marmol returned him yet again to the #1 slot.
Donovan, career, .730 OPS with the bases empty.
Men on base, .843.
Multiple men on, roughly .900.This guy has zero business hitting leadoff. But that won’t stop Ollie, no sirree. As he’s done every season, Boy Genius manages the team based on things happening in his own head, rather than realities on the field.
But to leave on a positive and completely unrelated note, Nathan Church since May 1 is now batting .366/.429/.623 across AA and AAA, with just 16 strikeouts in 196 trips to the plate. Yeah, he’s turning 25 in a couple of weeks, but that exceptional plate discipline, plus his solid defense and baserunning, makes him a genuine prospect. (Now watch him wear a golden sombrero tomorrow.)
The Rockies lost their 5th in a row today. It’s 2 days before July and they have 18 W’s. I’m expecting Manfred to conjure up some sort of a mercy rule for
In one of those stupid clickbait websites they have Mo going to the Rockies next year. That should help!
From the Cardinals:
The Cardinals recorded their 21st comeback win of the season by scoring eight unanswered runs after trailing 6-1. It was the largest comeback of the season for the Cardinals, besting a four-run comeback (5-1) for a 14-7 win at Philadelphia on May 14.
Bob, you present solid data as to why Donovan is not an ideal leadoff man (with the usual manager zinger included). But you stopped short of presenting a case as to who should lead off instead. I don’t see a lot of better choices.
If we don’t start Donny at leadoff while Nootbaar is struggling with his production and health, then who?
There’s a case to be made for Donny at leadoff all season. Anyone can sort by obp, where Donny has a .031 pt lead on any of our regulars.
Herrera has 50% of Donnys PA’s this season and is his only challenger, when available. He’s IL and i like him middle order.
We can auto bash Oli for Donnys short term results recently, but I currently don’t see a better choice available. Donny is getting shut down by lefties recently, helping sour his numbers, but I still like him as the best choice available.
I don’t love having Donovan leading off either, but I agree with JJ in that Marmol doesn’t have any good options. Winn doesn’t get on base enough. Nootbaar has slumped big time. Scott definitely doesn’t get on base enough. You’re basically left with Donovan or Contreras and I’m sure everyone on here would be opposed to Contreras. I’m sure the common fan would be all for it being Scott or Winn but those 2 are bad choices if the team is trying to win ball games. Hopefully they improve their OBP in the future and become good choices.
Brian, you are correct about the dearth of choices for leadoff.
Just stick whoever has the current highest OBP against the L / R throwing side of the opponent’s starting pitcher among Winn, Scott, Nootbar, or Donovan?
To argue with myself though – too much lineup juggling isn’t good as guys try to ‘find their place’…
I guess the answer is that there isn’t a good answer.
I wrote:
“…you presented solid data why Donovan is not an ideal leadoff man”.
jj replied:
I couldn’t disagree more.
I don’t believe there is one on the roster right now. As a number of folks have noted, Donovan seems the best they have at this time. But that doesn’t make him “ideal” for the job. To then rip the manager without suggesting what he should be doing instead makes it appear personal, which spoils it for me.
I just looked to confirm the current OBP stats. Earlier in the year, Nootbaar was running over .400, which is incredible. But here is where we are today:
Herrera – .392
Donovan – .372
Contreras – .341
Nootbaar – .334
Burleson – .332
Scott – .327
Winn – .323
Gorman – .310
Arenado – .306
Walker – .267
Pages – .266Scott is a little better than I thought he was, but still that is too low to put leadoff. We don’t want a lineup that gives more at bats to our mediocre hitters and takes away at bats from our best hitters. Donovan is really the only real choice here, especially against right handed starters where Donovan is well above everyone else at .416.
We have two legit leadoff men in my estimation Brian, so we are polar opposites on this one.
If Noot goes down for the season opening day, Donny goes to leadoff. There is no other choice.
Do his numbers change for the season because he was shuffled in the top 5 spots of the order?
Not for me. MLB often bats their best hitter first in the lineup. Who is that for us?
I’m butting out on this one, it may get silly with slicing and dicing to cook the favorable numbers.
Donny is an ultimate grinder. LF, 3B, 2B, leadoff, batting 3rd, it doesn’t matter. I’ll trust the largest sample.
“…you presented solid data why Donovan is not an ideal leadoff man”.
I couldn’t disagree more.
I agree with JJ here. Splits of where a batter hits aren’t that relevant as you slice up the sample size to even smaller levels with a lot more noise in your data. Donny at this point is easily the leadoff guy to me while Nootbaar is struggling. Donovan has the best OBP and is overall the best hitter on the team. Hitting him #1 lets him set the table and most importantly, it maximizes his PA. Why do you think the Dodgers hit Ohtani #1? He sure as heck isn’t a typical leadoff guy, but it consistently gets him extra PA to give his team a better chance of winning.
Thanks so much for all of the responses, guys. I have a few points of rebuttal.
In my opinion, some folks here are perhaps fixating overly on the leadoff slot in and of itself, rather than looking at the Redbird offensive production On The Whole. Brendan Donovan simply must be in an RBI spot, because the 4-year veteran has shown himself over and over to be a terrific hitter with men on base — and particularly multiple men on base. And he’s mediocre with the bases empty. For Donovan and thus for the team, he must hit in the 3-6 range, where ribbies reside. (But probably not cleanup, as he’s been bad there.) This is particularly true with Ivan Herrera out of the lineup.
Option one: put Nootbaar back at leadoff. Pretty simple. A recent intense slump doesn’t outweigh every single thing that came before. Lars has the same career OPS at leadoff as he does overall (and better BB/K numbers at leadoff). And he hits as well with the bases empty as he does with men on, for his career. He ain’t Rickey Henderson but he’s fine there. Marmol seemed to understand this when he installed Lars at leadoff in April, but now he’s forgotten it. If there’s a slump you can ride it out. If Willson Contreras gets to stay at cleanup regardless of production, then we can do the same with Noot at leadoff, can’t we?
Option two: try one of the young guys. The fact that someone like Masyn Winn or Victor Scott has a lower OBP than ideal doesn’t disqualify them until they’ve been given a couple of weeks at leadoff, to see how they react. There are plenty of hitter who perform better at some lineup slots than others, so we don’t really know how Masyn or Victor might respond. (Masyn’s been really good at the 2-hole, so I’d prefer to leave him there, obviously. But at leadoff, Victor might blossom a bit, youneverknow.)
———————————————————-
By the by, I didn’t get into all of this before because (a)I know how my posts can get long-winded; and (b)I honestly didn’t expect much feedback, much less pushback.
And yeah, Brian, I do dislike Ollie personally and as a manager. The latter very much, for innumerable reasons. But I still bet the Birds to win the Pennant and the Series this year, as the odds were just too generous. So nothing would make me happier than to see Ollie sprayed with champagne in October.
And again, thanks for the myriad responses, folks.
Bob, thanks for your insights. I agree with the idea that Donovan needs to be in a RBI spot. Him hitting third was working very well. I also agree with those who say we don’t have many other good options. Your suggestion of moving Noot back to leadoff is probably the only other viable possibility. I don’t think Scott or Winn are ready for that.
I must also say that even though you are one of the long time and legendary posters on this site the fact that 99.9% of your posts are veiled in another attempt to slam Marmol does diminish your crediblity a bit, which is unfortunate. Not many on this site think Marmol is a great manager but most of the complaints are tame as long as we are winning. Personally I think Marmol is an adequate placeholder manager until we are ready to emerge from the self proclaimed reset but I also have to acknowledge that I am shocked that we are currently 9 games over .500 and actually a playoff contender. The manager has to have something to do with that whether we want to acknowledge it or not.
It’s the low RBI count of Donnys, apparently for Bob, and it reminds me of Oli batting Goldy batting second, instead of later, for more rbi opps. That didn’t set well w/the forum either.
I’ll take my turn as the differing opinion tomorrow, and I welcome Bobs turn today, look at the discussion it sparked. Also notice you can have a polar opposite opinion of the boss, with no unwarranted negative pushback. Best Cardinal site/forum I know of.
There is an implication being offered that the lineup should be set in stone. I don’t think that the components of this team are good/consistent enough to do that.
To the subject at hand, I understand the idea that Lars should be leading off no matter what, but the reality is that over the last TWO MONTHS, his OBP is .290 on top of a BA of .205. That is really not good for a long time.
That Marmol is trying something else to win games should not be attacked. Comparing still unproven/inconsistent/oft-injured Lars to proven Contreras as if both deserve to stay in their lineup spots when slumping is not apples to apples.
If/when Lars gets going again, move him back to the top.
If we look at June, none of the leadoff choices have hit well, to Brains point. Where we are at in the season, demands Oli put his best lineup out there daily. He announced that runways have shortened.
If it were in the 2nd half, after being sellers, “ride it out” with certain players should and will happen, and where they bat in lineup wouldn’t matter.
I could see Burly at leadoff and Gorman batting third, Donny 5th and Lars 7th. I said I’d take my turn today as the differing opinion 😀
It’s time to win, or bow out.
The decision to bat Noot leadoff to start this season is wonk influenced, correctly. Noot is slightly better vs lefties, in MANY important columns, for his career. He takes a platoon approach at leadoff and buries the idea. I can’t say that about Donny.
Donny may have .020 career obp pts on Noot, but it’s built on vs righties, while his vs LH numbers are trending poorly by seasons. Noot actually has a slightly better bb/k, BA and OBP vs lefties than vs RH pitching (career). His slg% falls off vs lefties, same as Donovan, but not on the leadoff columns above.
If ya like everyday consistency at leadoff, for us, I think the wonks got it right to start the season.
“I must also say that even though you are one of the long time and legendary posters on this site the fact that 99.9% of your posts are veiled in another attempt to slam Marmol does diminish your credibility a bit, which is unfortunate.”
That estimate sounded a bit on the high side, so I checked. I’m not even batting .500 this year! I’ve authored 17 posts in 2025 and only 8 of them slandered our manager; I will try and do better in the future.
Sincerely, though, I will cite Marmol’s plusses more in the future, and return myself to that pristine credibility to which I’ve become so comfortably & complacently accustomed.
To wit. Ollie has done a fine job with pitching changes this year. Call it grade B. Give him a grade B+ with relievers and B- with the rotation. Pulls his starters too soon sometimes, but that’s become something of the industry norm at this point, and you can’t criticize a manager much for hewing to the fashions.
I like the part about the Redbird manager basing his decisions on things that are happening inside of his own head, and not on the realties that are taking place on the field of play…Haha! If ever there were a precise perfect analogy to offer up on the inner workings of the whiz-kids coconut, that would have to be it. And I’d guess that if someone were ever to attempt to explain to him that the game is played on dirt and grass, he’d quickly remove his cap to see if it contained soil and turf…
The suggestion is being misunderstood. It is not about heaping more praise on the manager. It is about making fewer blame assessments and personal insults in the cases where they may not fit.
As has been stated by several here, there are good reasons for Nootbaar to have been removed from the leadoff spot and there are no facts to suggest it was done on a managerial whim. Disagree? Fine, but let’s do so respectfully.
I was just a little surprised that Donovan hasn’t pushed a few more runs across HP. As for who’s slotted at lead-off, let’s just hope it ain’t Manny ll…
The one flaw I see in not using Donovan at lead off is using past results as the justification. All that shows is he would have been better (or was better) at a run producing slot in the past. There is nothing about batting in a particular position that means you will never be able to hit there.
But to counter my own comment, perhaps some guys press a little when hitting first, thinking about the pressure to get on base. Still you only truly “lead off” once a game. After that it can be anyone.
I think Marmol looked at the lineup and saw Donovan as the best hitter once Noot slumped, and has the speed and aggressiveness to be good at the top. Everything else is just randomness.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.