Bob Reed

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  • in reply to: 2026 TCN Community Top 50 Prospect Voting Thread #294263
    Bob Reed
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    #3 Rainiel Rodriguez

    The errors were a little elevated this year, but the passed balls were distinctly better than average and he gunned 30% of base stealers (32% in 2024). So right now there’s no reason to think he’ll be a Gold Glover — and also no real reason to think he can’t stick behind the plate long term. Upside equals Wetherholt, maybe even exceeds him. Less likelihood, of course, due to backstop attrition.

    Over the past two years, 1,579 minor leaguers accrued at least 400 plate appearances. Rainiel has the highest OPS+ of them all, at 172. That’s a pretty special bat.

    Link: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,14,12,13,15,16,17,18,30,32&stats=bat&qual=400&type=1&team=&season=2024&seasonEnd=2025&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=19,1

    in reply to: 2026 TCN Community Top 50 Prospect Voting Thread #294048
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    “Hmmmm Bob Reed moved Rodriguez above Bernal. Interesting.”

    Yeah, that was a combination of things, Ny. Leo unfortunately didn’t hit a lick from June 14 until the end of the season (.207 average, .272 slugging) and the passed balls were elevated as well. Add those factors to the mild concerns over his conditioning, and Bernal has slipped back a bit. Probably in the 50-60 range among all prospects — he’s still excellent at gunning runners, among the finest prospects in any organization.

    But what Rainiel has done is exceptionally rare for a kid catcher. Two professional seasons, two great years at the plate. The bat has Ivan Herrera potential.

    in reply to: 2026 TCN Community Top 50 Prospect Voting Thread #294004
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    Doyle’s had just one good year as a college pitcher, and just one year throwing more than 60 innings. I think he could be Hrabosky Hredux, which is certainly a top 100 type prospect.

    But I can’t put him above all of the remaining Redbird prospects. Too much risk of regression, and too volatile a personality — for anything but reliever, that is.

    Rainiel Rodriguez at #2, please. National rankers are placing him around #50 right now, and that’s just a little bit light, I think. More like 35-40 overall for me.

    ———————————————

    The Cards may have a top 8-10 farm, mayyybe even top 6 or 7, but that’s about as far as I’d go on that front. Too catcher-heavy, and too many arms unlikely to ever throw 160 MLB innings.

    in reply to: 2026 TCN Community Top 50 Prospect Voting Thread #293965
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    1) Wetherholt for me too, please.

    in reply to: Marmol #293776
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    “Willie, our last three managers have been rookies. Maybe we will try something different next time.”

    Well, over the past 50 years or so, the Cards have had three fallow periods. Obviously we are in the third one now. (Thanks, Mo. Thanks, Ollie.)

    It took Herzog to pull them out of the first, and LaRussa to extract them from the second. The year before Whitey took over, the club was 74-88, and the next season they played .578 baseball. Don Tony inherited a team with a dismal .434 winning percentage and went 88-74 in his first season and advanced to the NLCS.

    And the sport ain’t changed THAT much since then. So, yeah, it sure feels to me like a creative, decisive manager with an excellent track record can immediately turn a team around nearly 180 degrees. (Of course, for the Birds that’ll be in 2027 rather than 2026, as Ollie is here to finish off his contract.)

    Not that I would object to Stubby Clapp; in fact he’s the only guy without an MLB managerial pedigree I would not object to. Much as I love Pujols & Molina, we know nothing about their managerial chops. But we know about Stubby. He’s not too old, he’s used to managing young players, and he knows this roster. But mostly, it’s very hard to win back-to-back AAA championships, as there’s plenty of personnel turnover from year to year. One title could be a fluke. Not two in a row, no way.

    Lastly, thanks for the kind comments over the past week or so, fellow birdfans.

    in reply to: Marmol #293407
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    Clearly, Chaim Bloom wasn’t hired to win baseball games. As bizarre as that may sound, I believe it wholeheartedly. I think that the 2023 disaster broke the brains of ownership, broke their spirit, and they just don’t care about winning anymore, not really, not with any passion whatsoever. They don’t care enough to have a payroll commensurate with their revenues (12th-highest revenue in MLB in 2024 at $398MM), and that’s disappointing.

    But much worse than that, they also don’t care enough to hire an experienced, successful manager or qualified hitting/pitching coaches — and that trio wouldn’t cost much more than a middling middle reliever. Ownership just doesn’t care. It’s one thing for multi-multimillionaires and billionaires to be cheap & greedy. That’s not surprising, much less shocking. But it truly IS shocking to me when owners of previously proud sports franchises don’t care enough about winning to make even the slightest effort toward excellence. And that’s where we are now.

    So Bloom is here to continue slashing payroll, full stop. Payroll is borderline bottom 10 right now and obviously only going lower. In an era when 40% of teams make the playoffs, they’ve missed out for three years running, and it doesn’t bother them enough to do anything about it. Apparently until there’s an ownership change, October baseball under the Arch will have to be a happy accident.

    Welcome to the St. Louis Devil Rays.

    in reply to: Leahy as a starter? #293341
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    “You could drop the minors baggage as Leahy has. What’s to lose? He is “ruined” as a reliever if he doesn’t succeed in the rotation?”

    Here’s what’s to lose. See if this doesn’t sound like exactly what will happen.
    Marmol watches Leahy in Spring Training and sees an extremely inconsistent but occasionally effective starting pitcher — just like the 2025 versions of Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas. So Marmol decides that Leahy has the raw talent to be a starting pitcher and sends him to the mound over and over in 2026, despite an ERA around 5.00, or maybe worse. There are no obviously superior alternatives, so this goes on for two or three years, or however long Ollie is permitted to (mis)manage the club.

    That’s the risk. That’s what’s to lose. A potentially excellent reliever is lost and another crappy Pallantesque starter is gained. At a time, mind you, when really good relievers are more valuable than any other moment in the history of the sport. I realize I don’t need to say this, but a reliever with an ERA of 3.00 helps you win, and a starter with an ERA of 5.00 helps you lose.

    What makes this whole thing truly absurd, is that this Redbird combo of manager/pitching coach that’s supposed to turn Kyle Leahy into an effective starting major league pitcher, has over the past two seasons somehow turned an already terrific MLB starter into a mediocre journeyman. Sonny Gray, 2019-2021 with Cincy, ERA+ of 135. In 2022-2023 with the Twins, ERA+ of 144. Last two years with Ollie & Dusty, ERA+ of 101. Sonny’s still got the goods. Outstanding health, spectacular K/BB ratios, best of his career. But he isn’t preventing runs.

    So with Cincy, he was Randy Johnson or Rube Waddell (both 135 career ERA+)
    With Minnesota, he was roughly Roger Clemens or Addie Joss (both 143)
    As a Cardinal, he’s been Oil Can Boyd or Rick Wise (each 101)

    But I digress. Point is, Leahy has struggled badly for year upon year, and now he’s finally found something that works for him at the highest level of his profession. Leave him alone and let the man have a few good years out of the bullpen.

    in reply to: Leahy as a starter? #293305
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    Kyle Leahy is 28 years old and the last time he was remotely effective as a *starting* pitcher was when he was 22 years old in Low A-ball. In High-A his ERA was 6.30, in AA it was 6.28, and in AAA it was 6.31 across 2022/23 before switching to full-time reliever.

    To the best of my knowledge, in the 150 or so years of major league baseball, no pitcher with Kyle’s overwhelmingly consistent track record of frustration and futility as a minor league starter has ever gone on to be an effective MLB starter. Maybe Kyle Leahy will be the first. Or maybe he’s a 17th-round draft pick who’s found his niche and the Cardinal organization should be overjoyed with his development and leave him where he’s finally having success.

    The thing about having him throw 88 innings out of the bullpen this year (most in the Senior Circuit), it’s a significant health risk. And the thing with converting him back to starting…well, why mess with success?

    in reply to: Marmol #292627
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    Cardinal starting pitchers this year on regular rest: 3.91 ERA
    With one extra day of rest: 4.90 ERA
    Two or more extra days: 5.52 ERA

    This pattern has been true for at least a couple of months now.
    And yet, only 38 starts (25% of Cardinal starts) have been made with regular rest.

    And that’s Marmol in a nutshell, really. He does things that logically seem like they should work (extra rest for starting pitchers, Brendan Donovan batting leadoff, etc.), but when it turns out that they do NOT work, he keeps doing them anyway — a well-known definition of insanity.

    Last winter I stated that Cincy, Pitt, and Colorado had the only managers for whom I definitely would not trade Ollie Marmol. Well, Bell, Black, and Shelton have all been fired since then.

    Can anyone here name three current managers (with at least two years of MLB track record) they feel are worse than Marmol? I can no longer name even one.

    Bob Reed
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    …but if you’re thinking about the future, Brian, then don’t you shut down Leahy now? Or rather, a couple weeks ago? Also, if they’d used Leahy (sub-3.00 ERA) instead of Graceffo (ERA over 5.00) on Monday, then there’s a pretty good chance the team is one game closer — that changes the odds.

    Or to put it another way, good Keymaster. Can you imagine Whitey Herzog giving up on the division race if he trailed the cubs by 4 games with 18 left to play? Me neither. That’s not what good managers do, no matter what Fangraphs has to say about their chances.

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    Thanks for the responses, guys, and maybe I’m bad at math, but I don’t think that a team that’s 4 games out of a playoff spot with 3 weeks to go is in really a position for “auditions” at crucial moments of games. (Not that one or two appearances tells you anything about any pitcher or any hitter that you didn’t already know anyway.)

    Granted, a manager should always, at every point of every season, be weighing the present & future of the club, and trying to strike a balance between the two. But to effectively throw away a game to garner theoretical information when a much better option is available, is something you do in April or May, not September. Especially not when you’re trying to eek into the postseason for the first time in three years.

    ————————————————————

    And anyway, none of this Gordon Graceffo theorizing addresses the matter of Kyle Leahy being used in back-to-back mopup roles over the past few days. For the past month or two, Kyle Leahy has been on pace for 80-85 innings, an almost unheardof total these days for a 1-2 inning MLB reliever. Each additional appearance is a therefore health risk, particularly for someone who has barely any life experience in a bullpen pitching role. Moreover, Leahy is someone who might have a significant MLB role over the next several seasons. Why take an injury chance on mopup innings? A real manager wouldn’t.

    Are we so numb to mediocre baseball that we’ve forgotten what real managers do and don’t do?

    Bob Reed
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    I don’t watch every second of every postgame press conference, so maybe someone can help me with this. Has the local press asked Oliver Marmol about how much and/or in which situations he’s using Kyle Leahy?

    Leahy has been a valued setup guy for several months, right? He’s been a trusted high-leverage guy, even to the point of garnering a save on August 30th. But on Sept. 6th he entered the game with the Cardinals trailing by multiple runs. Then on Sept. 8th he was NOT used when Miles Mikolas left the game with two-on, none out, and the Cards nursing a 2-0 lead. (Graceffo inexplicably entered, got shelled, game lost.) Then on the 9th, Leahy enters another game with the Birds trailing by two runs, just like three days earlier. And to top it off the manager left him in for two innings and 30 pitches.

    If you’re gonna burn the guy out, at least use him when it matters. Right? I mean, thanks to his lengthy Tuesday outing, now Leahy can’t be used at all on Wednesday if the Cards are protecting a small lead in the 6th or 7th inning. This is just bizarre.

    in reply to: Marmol #291930
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    The manager does not create the roster. The manager does not create the roster. The manager does not create roster.

    We can create a love child between Tony LaRussa, Whitey Herzog, Joe Torre, Walter Alston, Connie Mack, Sparky Anderson, and Bruce Bochy and they are not going to win with an inadequate roster. I am amazed at how that is not obvious.

    Agreed. This year’s roster is so-so. Even a great manager with great coaches wouldn’t win more than 85-87 games unless luck was on his side. But the St. Louis Cardinals roster for 2023 and 2024 was as strong as any in the Central division. Please see previous post.

    The question for me is, after 2026 and presumably yet another year of missing the playoffs, will ownership bite the bullet and invest 5-6 million per year on an established, highly successful veteran MLB manager — i.e., spend money to make money via excellent baseball? Or will they again go cheap and promote from within? I’d be fine with two-time Triple-A champ Stubby Clapp, but nobody else currently in the organization is worthy of the job I don’t think.

    in reply to: Marmol #291908
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    “I’ve watched him manage an underwhelming roster for the past three years and he’s probably done about as good as anyone would have.”

    “…the rosters he has had to deal with have been half baked.”

    Most people who frequent this website know that I despise Ollie Marmol, as a person and manager. Okay, I despise the manager and merely dislike the person. Anyway I won’t make any claim to disinterested objectivity. And don’t worry, I won’t bore you with a lengthy itemized list of Marmol’s managerial blunders.

    But I disagree in the strongest possible terms with the two bolded statements, and I believe a brief (disinterested and objective) review of 2023 and 2024 preseason expectations should illustrate why. First, the Cardinals were decisively favored to win their division in 2023, when Ollie Marmol led them to last place. Per this CBS link, in 2023 the Cards had a preseason Vegas line of 89 wins, tied for the 8th-best number in MLB. Second best in the N.L. Central was Milwaukee (84.5). Next were cubs (78), Reds (67.5), and the Bucs (66). So entering the 2023 season, the Cards were not only favored to win the division, they were considered more than 20 games better than Cincy and Pitt — two of the teams they wound up behind. Link: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-picks-every-teams-2023-season-win-total-projection-plus-eight-best-bets/

    Then in 2024 the Redbirds entered the regular season as N.L. Central co-favorites with the cubs at 84.5 wins on the BetMGM over/under totals board. The Reds were barely behind at 82.5, then the Brewers (76.5) and Pirates (75.5). Link: https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/mlb-team-betting-preview-predictions-bm23/

    I think it’s reasonable to argue that if a team is favored or co-favored by Vegas to win their division, as the Birds were in both 2023 and 2024, then by definition they have a roster sufficient to do so. Barring an inordinate number of injuries, of course. (The Cards have in fact been one of MLB’s healthier teams over the past few years, so no excuse for the manager there.)

    —————————————————-

    As for the offseason, I wish I could agree with you, Pugs, about Ollie being let go. But the DeWitts are now such Ebenezeresque cheapskates — team payroll ranks roughly 20th in MLB now despite the club ranking 12th in revenue in 2024 — that I can’t see them paying anyone not to manage this team. I think Marmol gets another year. Another irrelevant, dreary year. And yeah, it matters. It matters a lot. Because this roster is not overflowing with established steady veterans. Instead it has numerous young and young-ish hitters and pitchers who could and should be developing right now — and they aren’t. Because of the MLB hitting and pitching coaches, and most especially because of the manager.

    in reply to: Rainiel Rodriguez progress report #291485
    Bob Reed
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    With his inside-the-park homer last night, our Incredible Shrinking Catcher now has a .999 OPS over the past two months. In A-ball, at 18 years of age.

    More specifically, Rainiel since June 22 has a slashline of .280/.432/.567 with a stellar 35-to-28 ratio of walks to whiffs, across 192 plate appearances. And even if he’s 5’ 8” and doesn’t grow another quarter inch, he’ll still be bigger than Yogi Berra, Hack Wilson, Joe Morgan, Jose Altuve, and several other superstars. And he’d be only an inch shorter than my favorite non-Yadi backstop, Campy. So I’m not fretting a bit about Rai-Rod’s height.

    It looks like at full maturity he’ll have a 50-55 hit tool, 60-65 power, and 65-70 patience, i.e., a 12-15% walk rate. Assuming average health/durability, I’d put his 50th percentile outcome at a roughly 15 WAR career; 75th percentile is Mickey Tettleton, and 90th is Gene Tenace.

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    “At this point having Mikolas pitch is just trolling the fan base.”

    “What are the alternatives?”

    I would say there are two alternatives. One involves a AAA pitcher. Memphis plays in the International League, home to 20 teams. In the International League this year, 18 starting pitchers have made at least 19 starts. The lowest ERA and 2nd-lowest WHIP of those 18 pitchers belongs to a journeyman reliever who has been converted to starting this year. His name is Curtis Taylor and he pitches for Memphis.

    It doesn’t matter now, since the last wildcard team is 7 1/2 games ahead of the Cards, but a few weeks ago Pallante or Mikolas could and should have been replaced by Taylor in the rotation. Not because Taylor is going to be a rotation fixture going forward, but because the thing that absolutely is NOT working needs to be abandoned even if it means trying something unfamiliar that might also fail. Taylor has earned a chance. You never know when you might get a Simontacchi Hot Streak from some minor league veteran. (For you kids out there, Jason Simontacchi was a non-prospect in his late 20’s having success in AAA — just like Curtis Taylor right now — when the Cards called him up in 2002. In his first 13 major league starts he posted an ERA of 2.82.)

    The other alternative was used to great effect in Detroit last year by manager A. J. Hinch. He spent the second half of 2024 rallying the Tigers to a playoff spot by rejecting his lesser starting pitchers and utilizing good relievers to eat up many “starter innings.” Basically he used 3 or 4 conventional starters for much of the second half, and fed the rest of the starts to bullpen guys like Holton, Brieske, Faedo, et. al. It was creative & risky and it worked spectacularly well.

    in reply to: JJ Wetherholt #290960
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    “What the heck is 17 year old Kenly Hunter doing ranked in the Cardinals organization’s Top 30??”

    The DSL wrapped up today, Muddy, and I plan to start a thread very soon about the exploits of our kids down there — it’s the deepest crop we’ve had in the Dominican Republic in a while. But meantime here’s the Cliff’s Notes on Hunter:

    Good defensive centerfielder who hit .314 this year, drew walks (OBP of .420+ every month), didn’t fan too much, and swiped 25 bags in just 37 games (only nabbed twice). Per both scouting and the stats, it’s a well-rounded skillset that to me fully justifies a ranking in the mid-20’s or so. All young Kenly was missing in the DSL was power, and as I’m sure you’re well aware, that’s frequently the last tool to develop. And anyway, if he eventually hits for average, runs the bases well, and covers the outfield grass with aplomb, that’s enough for a solid MLB regular even without any power.

    in reply to: Major League draft study #290916
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    Great information. Thanks a lot, Sooner — and you too, Gags, for the lottery numbers.

    During this decade-long decline into mediocrity the draft & development folks have continued to excel in my opinion. Amateur scouting remains outstanding. The debilitating performances have come from pro scouting (Cards may have been the worst in all of baseball over the past decade, and the Brewers perhaps the best), and of late the MLB manager and his ineffective post-Maddux staff.

    I look forward to your future posts on this thread, Sooner!

    in reply to: JJ Wetherholt #290616
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    “Is Wetherholt doing good nowadays down in Memphis?
    Or is he doing bad nowadays down in Memphis?
    What’s going on with him?”

    After an unbelievably blistering start to his AAA time, he’s cooled off some. But his overall Memphis batting line is still fantastic.

    If we prorate his one-month performance to 156 games (an eccentric number, I know, but the math is easier), we get this: .297 average, 39 doubles, 6 triples, 52 homers, 97 RBI, 149 runs scored, 91 walks.

    I didn’t see much to fret about in the interview. When it comes to hitting, the kid seems to embrace the cerebral side of things — so did Mike Schmidt and Ted Williams, among others — but I did NOT get the sense that he’s been swept up in the exit velocity/launch angle nonsense that’s contaminated many organizations (not unlike how the velocity/movement fixation has infected pitching development).

    Here’s hoping he spends the next 8-10 years as Masyn Winn’s double play partner, starting on Opening Day, 2026.

    in reply to: Rainiel Rodriguez progress report #290549
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    “Is there a deflationary aspect to rating Cardinal farmhands now that they’ve been shown to be one of the poorer developmental teams in the big leagues? I personally can’t feel too excited about many of our prospects as we’ve witnessed top talent repeatedly flaming out at the big league level. When 2-3 WAR guys like Donovan or Herrera are your big success stories, you know you’re in trouble.”

    —————————————————————–

    First, thanks everyone for the remarks over the past month or so. And you’re welcome, 25.

    As for the above quoted comment, I rate all prospects in all organizations in a franchise-neutral manner, because (1)they could be traded at pretty much any time, and (2)their big league manager/coaching staff could change without warning.
    Also, although I have as much contempt for the job performance of Oliver Marmol as anyone, and general disappointment in both Dusty Blake and Brant Brown, I don’t believe it’s 100% accurate to characterize the past few years as “top talent repeatedly flaming out at the big league level”, or entirely fair to describe Donovan and Herrera as “2-3 WAR guys.”

    First, pitching. On balance Matt Liberatore has in my opinion been failed by his manager & pitching coach, but he’s nevertheless a solid #3/4 rotation piece right now, improving year-over-year, and still just 25. I don’t think there’s been any other top pitchers come through the Redbird pipeline lately. Matt qualifies as a letdown so far, but no worse than that. (And Pallante, with his league average 100 ERA+ for his career, has actually exceeded reasonable expectations based on his minor league track record.)

    We’ll have to see what happens as the slew of southpaws progresses to the majors over the next couple of campaigns — Mathews, Henderson, Mautz, Hansen sort of, and even Braden Davis have shown signs to be plausible rotation candidates sooner than later. As for lesser lefties, Doyle was a grand mistake and Hjerpe can’t stay healthy so I’m not figuring on them at all, except as bullpen possibilities.

    In terms of hitters, Gorman is a disappointment but not a flameout, I wouldn’t say. If Nolan played every day, with time off periodically v. the tougher lefties, I think he’d be a 1.5 to 2 WAR contributor. On the other hand Dylan Carlson and Jordan Walker are catastrophes, obviously, Walkers little hot streaks notwithstanding. But the latter two are largely offset by the successful quartet of Nootbaar, Donovan, Herrera, and Winn. Averaging their Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs WAR values, each of those four has been worth between 3.1 and 3.3 WAR per 600 PA’s for his career so far, which is a chunk better than “2-3 WAR.” Here are the details if anyone wants to check my math:

    Masyn Blaze Winn 1228 PA’s, 7.0 B-Ref WAR and 6.4 at Fangraphs. Average: 3.3 per 600 PA’s
    Ivan Herrera 606 PA’s, 3.8 WAR at Fangraphs and 2.8 at B-Ref. Average: also 3.3/600
    Brendan Donovan 1967 PA’s, 10.6 at B-Ref and 9.5 from Fangraphs. Average: 3.2/600
    Lars Nootbaar 1796 PA’s, and 9.2 WAR at both Fangraphs & B-Ref. Average: 3.1/600

    So that’s four above average regulars but no stars. However. However, Herrera just turned 25 and Masyn Winn is only 23 years old, so their best days are very likely still in front of them — stardom is certainly possible with a better manager & hitting coach, and not out of the question even with the current dugout inhabitants. And finally, at the risk of getting overly granular, the minor league BB/K ratios of disappointments Gorman/Walker/Carlson were below average at roughly .40-.45, while the aforementioned successful foursome were in the .65 territory, or well above average.

    Brant Brown has done a terrible job, it must be acknowledged. Cardinal batters, particularly the younger ones, are regularly guessing rather than reacting, which leads to awful AB’s where they get themselves out by swinging at lousy non-strike pitches when ahead in the count, and other at-bats where they take strike three on 0-2 and 1-2 counts. Redbird batters commit both of these hitting sins FAR more than any of the Cardinal opponents do.

    But Brant Brown cannot ruin a guy who comes with professional plate discipline already built in. That describes Ivan Herrera. And I believe it describes J. J. Wetherholt, Nathan Church, and Rainiel Rodriguez, among others. So I am guardedly optimistic for the future, even if the current MLB staff is misguidedly permitted to stick around.

    Anyway that’s my short answer.

    in reply to: Rainiel Rodriguez progress report #290483
    Bob Reed
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    Latest news on Rainiel: he’s now sporting a stellar 137 OPS+ for Palm Beach, which is all the more extraordinary since he started out 9-for-56 there with a craptastic 2/16 BB/K tally.

    How things have changed. Over his past 136 plate appearances, the 18-year-old backstop is batting .279/.441/.538 with an exceptional ratio of 28 walks to just 20 strikeouts. The errors, passed balls, caught stealing are all fine — but I’d still like to see the organization try him at another position over the winter, given the glut of good catchers down on the farm and the decidedly spherical physiques of Bernal & Crooks.

    in reply to: Changes in 2026 #289553
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    “One thing I was thinking about is I have said and many others here have said they wish the team had a FO like the Brewers. I have to ask, what do we think the Brewers FO would do if they were running the team in regards to Brendan Donovan this offseason? I love Donovan as a player and he is one of my favorites, but I don’t quite think the Brewers FO would keep him around with Wetherholt waiting in the wings and would try to optimize Donovan’s value by trading him for a good SP3 type.”

    Milwaukee places an emphasis on defense (& base stealing), so I suspect the Brewers would look at Brendan Donovan’s defensive numbers all over the diamond to see if there’s one position where he fits much better than the others. And what they would find is that according to the Ultimate Zone Ratings and the Total Zone metrics and the Defensive Runs Saved yardstick, Brendan Donovan is a roughly average defender all over the place, infield and outfield. Except for one spot. He’s been amazing at the hot corner. (Yeah, yeah, small sample size, I know. But all three measurements say he’s great there.)

    So the Brewers would probably find a way to put Donovan at third base on Opening Day, 2026, with Wetherholt at the keystone. If this means eating 50, 60, even 70 percent of Arenado’s remaining salary, so be it. If it means having a very uncomfortable conversation with Arenado about how the future Hall Of Famer is no longer the starting third sacker, so Nolan will agree to a trade, well that’s why Ollie Marmol gets the big bucks — uncomfortable conversations are part of his job description.

    in reply to: Changes in 2026 #288269
    Bob Reed
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    When it comes to weighing which guys to keep, trade, and offer contracts extending into their free agent years, track record is everything. So let’s take a look.

    Career WAR-per-600 plate appearances, per Baseball-Reference:
    Masyn Winn 3.5
    Donovan 3.4
    Noot 3.1
    Herrera 3.0
    Gorman 1.5
    Burly 0.9

    Same, but for 2025 only:
    Donovan 3.8
    Winn 3.7
    Herrera 3.5
    Burly 2.7
    Noot 2.1
    Gorman 0.3

    Now, averaging the two:
    Donovan 3.6
    Winn 3.6
    Herrera 3.3
    Noot 2.6
    Burly 1.8
    Gorman 0.9

    I say make contract offers to Donovan, Winn, and Herrera that take them at least two years into free agency — with a year or two being club options for flexibility. Keep Noot, trade Burly as his value will very likely never be as high again and he’s too one-dimensional of a contributor to ever be a core player on a good MLB team. Gorman (and Walker) I’d listen to reasonable offers but not actively sell at this point, as you’d be getting 20 cents on the dollar.

    But realistically, the club won’t start winning 90 games again until they replace the top three on the MLB managing/coaching staff.

    in reply to: Rainiel Rodriguez progress report #287322
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    All-star break update. Rainiel’s looking good.

    Rodriguez has lifted his Florida State League OPS+ to a very solid 117 after starting out miserably with 9-for-56 there. Since then (June 22) he’s had 64 plate appearances and is slashing .292/.453/.563 with 14 walks against just 8 strikeouts.

    in reply to: The Nationals Fire Dave Martinez #286657
    Bob Reed
    Participant

    Free

    Is he the worst manager to win a championship? Roughly 75 different managers have won a World Series, and managed at least 500 regular season games. Martinez is dead last in career winning percentage. Chuck Tanner & Ozzie Guillen were no dugout geniuses, but at least they didn’t make the bottom three.

    Martinez .446
    Fred Haney .454
    Rogers Hornsby .463

    (Baseball-Reference lists manager Jose Maria Fernandez at .462, but that was a Negro Leagues title [1947 New York Cubans, led by actual Cubans Luis Tiant and Minnie Minoso], so I don’t count it the same as MLB. The lazy feelgood direct blending of MLB and Negro League stats for both players and managers at B-Ref is why I don’t have an exact count on how many managers have won the World Serious.)

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First-hand news and commentary on the St. Louis Cardinals™ and minor league system for over 25 years