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…but if you’re thinking about the future, Brian, then don’t you shut down Leahy now? Or rather, a couple weeks ago? Also, if they’d used Leahy (sub-3.00 ERA) instead of Graceffo (ERA over 5.00) on Monday, then there’s a pretty good chance the team is one game closer — that changes the odds.
Or to put it another way, good Keymaster. Can you imagine Whitey Herzog giving up on the division race if he trailed the cubs by 4 games with 18 left to play? Me neither. That’s not what good managers do, no matter what Fangraphs has to say about their chances.
Thanks for the responses, guys, and maybe I’m bad at math, but I don’t think that a team that’s 4 games out of a playoff spot with 3 weeks to go is in really a position for “auditions” at crucial moments of games. (Not that one or two appearances tells you anything about any pitcher or any hitter that you didn’t already know anyway.)
Granted, a manager should always, at every point of every season, be weighing the present & future of the club, and trying to strike a balance between the two. But to effectively throw away a game to garner theoretical information when a much better option is available, is something you do in April or May, not September. Especially not when you’re trying to eek into the postseason for the first time in three years.
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And anyway, none of this Gordon Graceffo theorizing addresses the matter of Kyle Leahy being used in back-to-back mopup roles over the past few days. For the past month or two, Kyle Leahy has been on pace for 80-85 innings, an almost unheardof total these days for a 1-2 inning MLB reliever. Each additional appearance is a therefore health risk, particularly for someone who has barely any life experience in a bullpen pitching role. Moreover, Leahy is someone who might have a significant MLB role over the next several seasons. Why take an injury chance on mopup innings? A real manager wouldn’t.
Are we so numb to mediocre baseball that we’ve forgotten what real managers do and don’t do?
I don’t watch every second of every postgame press conference, so maybe someone can help me with this. Has the local press asked Oliver Marmol about how much and/or in which situations he’s using Kyle Leahy?
Leahy has been a valued setup guy for several months, right? He’s been a trusted high-leverage guy, even to the point of garnering a save on August 30th. But on Sept. 6th he entered the game with the Cardinals trailing by multiple runs. Then on Sept. 8th he was NOT used when Miles Mikolas left the game with two-on, none out, and the Cards nursing a 2-0 lead. (Graceffo inexplicably entered, got shelled, game lost.) Then on the 9th, Leahy enters another game with the Birds trailing by two runs, just like three days earlier. And to top it off the manager left him in for two innings and 30 pitches.
If you’re gonna burn the guy out, at least use him when it matters. Right? I mean, thanks to his lengthy Tuesday outing, now Leahy can’t be used at all on Wednesday if the Cards are protecting a small lead in the 6th or 7th inning. This is just bizarre.
The manager does not create the roster. The manager does not create the roster. The manager does not create roster.
We can create a love child between Tony LaRussa, Whitey Herzog, Joe Torre, Walter Alston, Connie Mack, Sparky Anderson, and Bruce Bochy and they are not going to win with an inadequate roster. I am amazed at how that is not obvious.
Agreed. This year’s roster is so-so. Even a great manager with great coaches wouldn’t win more than 85-87 games unless luck was on his side. But the St. Louis Cardinals roster for 2023 and 2024 was as strong as any in the Central division. Please see previous post.
The question for me is, after 2026 and presumably yet another year of missing the playoffs, will ownership bite the bullet and invest 5-6 million per year on an established, highly successful veteran MLB manager — i.e., spend money to make money via excellent baseball? Or will they again go cheap and promote from within? I’d be fine with two-time Triple-A champ Stubby Clapp, but nobody else currently in the organization is worthy of the job I don’t think.
“I’ve watched him manage an underwhelming roster for the past three years and he’s probably done about as good as anyone would have.”
“…the rosters he has had to deal with have been half baked.”
Most people who frequent this website know that I despise Ollie Marmol, as a person and manager. Okay, I despise the manager and merely dislike the person. Anyway I won’t make any claim to disinterested objectivity. And don’t worry, I won’t bore you with a lengthy itemized list of Marmol’s managerial blunders.
But I disagree in the strongest possible terms with the two bolded statements, and I believe a brief (disinterested and objective) review of 2023 and 2024 preseason expectations should illustrate why. First, the Cardinals were decisively favored to win their division in 2023, when Ollie Marmol led them to last place. Per this CBS link, in 2023 the Cards had a preseason Vegas line of 89 wins, tied for the 8th-best number in MLB. Second best in the N.L. Central was Milwaukee (84.5). Next were cubs (78), Reds (67.5), and the Bucs (66). So entering the 2023 season, the Cards were not only favored to win the division, they were considered more than 20 games better than Cincy and Pitt — two of the teams they wound up behind. Link: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-picks-every-teams-2023-season-win-total-projection-plus-eight-best-bets/
Then in 2024 the Redbirds entered the regular season as N.L. Central co-favorites with the cubs at 84.5 wins on the BetMGM over/under totals board. The Reds were barely behind at 82.5, then the Brewers (76.5) and Pirates (75.5). Link: https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/mlb-team-betting-preview-predictions-bm23/
I think it’s reasonable to argue that if a team is favored or co-favored by Vegas to win their division, as the Birds were in both 2023 and 2024, then by definition they have a roster sufficient to do so. Barring an inordinate number of injuries, of course. (The Cards have in fact been one of MLB’s healthier teams over the past few years, so no excuse for the manager there.)
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As for the offseason, I wish I could agree with you, Pugs, about Ollie being let go. But the DeWitts are now such Ebenezeresque cheapskates — team payroll ranks roughly 20th in MLB now despite the club ranking 12th in revenue in 2024 — that I can’t see them paying anyone not to manage this team. I think Marmol gets another year. Another irrelevant, dreary year. And yeah, it matters. It matters a lot. Because this roster is not overflowing with established steady veterans. Instead it has numerous young and young-ish hitters and pitchers who could and should be developing right now — and they aren’t. Because of the MLB hitting and pitching coaches, and most especially because of the manager.
With his inside-the-park homer last night, our Incredible Shrinking Catcher now has a .999 OPS over the past two months. In A-ball, at 18 years of age.
More specifically, Rainiel since June 22 has a slashline of .280/.432/.567 with a stellar 35-to-28 ratio of walks to whiffs, across 192 plate appearances. And even if he’s 5’ 8” and doesn’t grow another quarter inch, he’ll still be bigger than Yogi Berra, Hack Wilson, Joe Morgan, Jose Altuve, and several other superstars. And he’d be only an inch shorter than my favorite non-Yadi backstop, Campy. So I’m not fretting a bit about Rai-Rod’s height.
It looks like at full maturity he’ll have a 50-55 hit tool, 60-65 power, and 65-70 patience, i.e., a 12-15% walk rate. Assuming average health/durability, I’d put his 50th percentile outcome at a roughly 15 WAR career; 75th percentile is Mickey Tettleton, and 90th is Gene Tenace.
“At this point having Mikolas pitch is just trolling the fan base.”
“What are the alternatives?”
I would say there are two alternatives. One involves a AAA pitcher. Memphis plays in the International League, home to 20 teams. In the International League this year, 18 starting pitchers have made at least 19 starts. The lowest ERA and 2nd-lowest WHIP of those 18 pitchers belongs to a journeyman reliever who has been converted to starting this year. His name is Curtis Taylor and he pitches for Memphis.
It doesn’t matter now, since the last wildcard team is 7 1/2 games ahead of the Cards, but a few weeks ago Pallante or Mikolas could and should have been replaced by Taylor in the rotation. Not because Taylor is going to be a rotation fixture going forward, but because the thing that absolutely is NOT working needs to be abandoned even if it means trying something unfamiliar that might also fail. Taylor has earned a chance. You never know when you might get a Simontacchi Hot Streak from some minor league veteran. (For you kids out there, Jason Simontacchi was a non-prospect in his late 20’s having success in AAA — just like Curtis Taylor right now — when the Cards called him up in 2002. In his first 13 major league starts he posted an ERA of 2.82.)
The other alternative was used to great effect in Detroit last year by manager A. J. Hinch. He spent the second half of 2024 rallying the Tigers to a playoff spot by rejecting his lesser starting pitchers and utilizing good relievers to eat up many “starter innings.” Basically he used 3 or 4 conventional starters for much of the second half, and fed the rest of the starts to bullpen guys like Holton, Brieske, Faedo, et. al. It was creative & risky and it worked spectacularly well.
“What the heck is 17 year old Kenly Hunter doing ranked in the Cardinals organization’s Top 30??”
The DSL wrapped up today, Muddy, and I plan to start a thread very soon about the exploits of our kids down there — it’s the deepest crop we’ve had in the Dominican Republic in a while. But meantime here’s the Cliff’s Notes on Hunter:
Good defensive centerfielder who hit .314 this year, drew walks (OBP of .420+ every month), didn’t fan too much, and swiped 25 bags in just 37 games (only nabbed twice). Per both scouting and the stats, it’s a well-rounded skillset that to me fully justifies a ranking in the mid-20’s or so. All young Kenly was missing in the DSL was power, and as I’m sure you’re well aware, that’s frequently the last tool to develop. And anyway, if he eventually hits for average, runs the bases well, and covers the outfield grass with aplomb, that’s enough for a solid MLB regular even without any power.
Great information. Thanks a lot, Sooner — and you too, Gags, for the lottery numbers.
During this decade-long decline into mediocrity the draft & development folks have continued to excel in my opinion. Amateur scouting remains outstanding. The debilitating performances have come from pro scouting (Cards may have been the worst in all of baseball over the past decade, and the Brewers perhaps the best), and of late the MLB manager and his ineffective post-Maddux staff.
I look forward to your future posts on this thread, Sooner!
“Is Wetherholt doing good nowadays down in Memphis?
Or is he doing bad nowadays down in Memphis?
What’s going on with him?”After an unbelievably blistering start to his AAA time, he’s cooled off some. But his overall Memphis batting line is still fantastic.
If we prorate his one-month performance to 156 games (an eccentric number, I know, but the math is easier), we get this: .297 average, 39 doubles, 6 triples, 52 homers, 97 RBI, 149 runs scored, 91 walks.
I didn’t see much to fret about in the interview. When it comes to hitting, the kid seems to embrace the cerebral side of things — so did Mike Schmidt and Ted Williams, among others — but I did NOT get the sense that he’s been swept up in the exit velocity/launch angle nonsense that’s contaminated many organizations (not unlike how the velocity/movement fixation has infected pitching development).
Here’s hoping he spends the next 8-10 years as Masyn Winn’s double play partner, starting on Opening Day, 2026.
“Is there a deflationary aspect to rating Cardinal farmhands now that they’ve been shown to be one of the poorer developmental teams in the big leagues? I personally can’t feel too excited about many of our prospects as we’ve witnessed top talent repeatedly flaming out at the big league level. When 2-3 WAR guys like Donovan or Herrera are your big success stories, you know you’re in trouble.”
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First, thanks everyone for the remarks over the past month or so. And you’re welcome, 25.
As for the above quoted comment, I rate all prospects in all organizations in a franchise-neutral manner, because (1)they could be traded at pretty much any time, and (2)their big league manager/coaching staff could change without warning.
Also, although I have as much contempt for the job performance of Oliver Marmol as anyone, and general disappointment in both Dusty Blake and Brant Brown, I don’t believe it’s 100% accurate to characterize the past few years as “top talent repeatedly flaming out at the big league level”, or entirely fair to describe Donovan and Herrera as “2-3 WAR guys.”First, pitching. On balance Matt Liberatore has in my opinion been failed by his manager & pitching coach, but he’s nevertheless a solid #3/4 rotation piece right now, improving year-over-year, and still just 25. I don’t think there’s been any other top pitchers come through the Redbird pipeline lately. Matt qualifies as a letdown so far, but no worse than that. (And Pallante, with his league average 100 ERA+ for his career, has actually exceeded reasonable expectations based on his minor league track record.)
We’ll have to see what happens as the slew of southpaws progresses to the majors over the next couple of campaigns — Mathews, Henderson, Mautz, Hansen sort of, and even Braden Davis have shown signs to be plausible rotation candidates sooner than later. As for lesser lefties, Doyle was a grand mistake and Hjerpe can’t stay healthy so I’m not figuring on them at all, except as bullpen possibilities.
In terms of hitters, Gorman is a disappointment but not a flameout, I wouldn’t say. If Nolan played every day, with time off periodically v. the tougher lefties, I think he’d be a 1.5 to 2 WAR contributor. On the other hand Dylan Carlson and Jordan Walker are catastrophes, obviously, Walkers little hot streaks notwithstanding. But the latter two are largely offset by the successful quartet of Nootbaar, Donovan, Herrera, and Winn. Averaging their Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs WAR values, each of those four has been worth between 3.1 and 3.3 WAR per 600 PA’s for his career so far, which is a chunk better than “2-3 WAR.” Here are the details if anyone wants to check my math:
Masyn Blaze Winn 1228 PA’s, 7.0 B-Ref WAR and 6.4 at Fangraphs. Average: 3.3 per 600 PA’s
Ivan Herrera 606 PA’s, 3.8 WAR at Fangraphs and 2.8 at B-Ref. Average: also 3.3/600
Brendan Donovan 1967 PA’s, 10.6 at B-Ref and 9.5 from Fangraphs. Average: 3.2/600
Lars Nootbaar 1796 PA’s, and 9.2 WAR at both Fangraphs & B-Ref. Average: 3.1/600So that’s four above average regulars but no stars. However. However, Herrera just turned 25 and Masyn Winn is only 23 years old, so their best days are very likely still in front of them — stardom is certainly possible with a better manager & hitting coach, and not out of the question even with the current dugout inhabitants. And finally, at the risk of getting overly granular, the minor league BB/K ratios of disappointments Gorman/Walker/Carlson were below average at roughly .40-.45, while the aforementioned successful foursome were in the .65 territory, or well above average.
Brant Brown has done a terrible job, it must be acknowledged. Cardinal batters, particularly the younger ones, are regularly guessing rather than reacting, which leads to awful AB’s where they get themselves out by swinging at lousy non-strike pitches when ahead in the count, and other at-bats where they take strike three on 0-2 and 1-2 counts. Redbird batters commit both of these hitting sins FAR more than any of the Cardinal opponents do.
But Brant Brown cannot ruin a guy who comes with professional plate discipline already built in. That describes Ivan Herrera. And I believe it describes J. J. Wetherholt, Nathan Church, and Rainiel Rodriguez, among others. So I am guardedly optimistic for the future, even if the current MLB staff is misguidedly permitted to stick around.
Anyway that’s my short answer.
Latest news on Rainiel: he’s now sporting a stellar 137 OPS+ for Palm Beach, which is all the more extraordinary since he started out 9-for-56 there with a craptastic 2/16 BB/K tally.
How things have changed. Over his past 136 plate appearances, the 18-year-old backstop is batting .279/.441/.538 with an exceptional ratio of 28 walks to just 20 strikeouts. The errors, passed balls, caught stealing are all fine — but I’d still like to see the organization try him at another position over the winter, given the glut of good catchers down on the farm and the decidedly spherical physiques of Bernal & Crooks.
“One thing I was thinking about is I have said and many others here have said they wish the team had a FO like the Brewers. I have to ask, what do we think the Brewers FO would do if they were running the team in regards to Brendan Donovan this offseason? I love Donovan as a player and he is one of my favorites, but I don’t quite think the Brewers FO would keep him around with Wetherholt waiting in the wings and would try to optimize Donovan’s value by trading him for a good SP3 type.”
Milwaukee places an emphasis on defense (& base stealing), so I suspect the Brewers would look at Brendan Donovan’s defensive numbers all over the diamond to see if there’s one position where he fits much better than the others. And what they would find is that according to the Ultimate Zone Ratings and the Total Zone metrics and the Defensive Runs Saved yardstick, Brendan Donovan is a roughly average defender all over the place, infield and outfield. Except for one spot. He’s been amazing at the hot corner. (Yeah, yeah, small sample size, I know. But all three measurements say he’s great there.)
So the Brewers would probably find a way to put Donovan at third base on Opening Day, 2026, with Wetherholt at the keystone. If this means eating 50, 60, even 70 percent of Arenado’s remaining salary, so be it. If it means having a very uncomfortable conversation with Arenado about how the future Hall Of Famer is no longer the starting third sacker, so Nolan will agree to a trade, well that’s why Ollie Marmol gets the big bucks — uncomfortable conversations are part of his job description.
When it comes to weighing which guys to keep, trade, and offer contracts extending into their free agent years, track record is everything. So let’s take a look.
Career WAR-per-600 plate appearances, per Baseball-Reference:
Masyn Winn 3.5
Donovan 3.4
Noot 3.1
Herrera 3.0
Gorman 1.5
Burly 0.9Same, but for 2025 only:
Donovan 3.8
Winn 3.7
Herrera 3.5
Burly 2.7
Noot 2.1
Gorman 0.3Now, averaging the two:
Donovan 3.6
Winn 3.6
Herrera 3.3
Noot 2.6
Burly 1.8
Gorman 0.9I say make contract offers to Donovan, Winn, and Herrera that take them at least two years into free agency — with a year or two being club options for flexibility. Keep Noot, trade Burly as his value will very likely never be as high again and he’s too one-dimensional of a contributor to ever be a core player on a good MLB team. Gorman (and Walker) I’d listen to reasonable offers but not actively sell at this point, as you’d be getting 20 cents on the dollar.
But realistically, the club won’t start winning 90 games again until they replace the top three on the MLB managing/coaching staff.
All-star break update. Rainiel’s looking good.
Rodriguez has lifted his Florida State League OPS+ to a very solid 117 after starting out miserably with 9-for-56 there. Since then (June 22) he’s had 64 plate appearances and is slashing .292/.453/.563 with 14 walks against just 8 strikeouts.
Is he the worst manager to win a championship? Roughly 75 different managers have won a World Series, and managed at least 500 regular season games. Martinez is dead last in career winning percentage. Chuck Tanner & Ozzie Guillen were no dugout geniuses, but at least they didn’t make the bottom three.
Martinez .446
Fred Haney .454
Rogers Hornsby .463(Baseball-Reference lists manager Jose Maria Fernandez at .462, but that was a Negro Leagues title [1947 New York Cubans, led by actual Cubans Luis Tiant and Minnie Minoso], so I don’t count it the same as MLB. The lazy feelgood direct blending of MLB and Negro League stats for both players and managers at B-Ref is why I don’t have an exact count on how many managers have won the World Serious.)
“But to counter my own comment, perhaps some guys press a little when hitting first, thinking about the pressure to get on base. Still you only truly ‘lead off’ once a game. After that it can be anyone.”
Well said, that first part. Plenty of players, past and present, have expressed a strong personal preference for certain lineup slots, based on the role — real or perceived — that they are being asked to fill at that particular place. It’s human nature. Human baseball nature anyway.
At any rate, I’ll just add this, then leave this thread to kinder voices than my own.
Hitter #1 has a .256 average, a .733 OPS, and a mediocre BB/K ratio of .53 across 653 plate appearances.
Hitter #2 has a .298 average, an .800 OPS, and an excellent BB/K rate of .73 in 1,179 trips to the plate.Batter #1 is Donovan, career, at leadoff. And as you’ve probably guessed, #2 is Brendan everywhere else in the batting order. No matter what anyone’s personal feeling are re the Redbird skipper, isn’t it clear by now, that Brendan Donovan is just not the same when he’s slotted at the top of the lineup?
(By the way, when Donovan leads off a game, he’s walked 8 times in 141 trips to the plate. With 33 whiffs. He’s simply not himself in that role.)
“I must also say that even though you are one of the long time and legendary posters on this site the fact that 99.9% of your posts are veiled in another attempt to slam Marmol does diminish your credibility a bit, which is unfortunate.”
That estimate sounded a bit on the high side, so I checked. I’m not even batting .500 this year! I’ve authored 17 posts in 2025 and only 8 of them slandered our manager; I will try and do better in the future.
Sincerely, though, I will cite Marmol’s plusses more in the future, and return myself to that pristine credibility to which I’ve become so comfortably & complacently accustomed.
To wit. Ollie has done a fine job with pitching changes this year. Call it grade B. Give him a grade B+ with relievers and B- with the rotation. Pulls his starters too soon sometimes, but that’s become something of the industry norm at this point, and you can’t criticize a manager much for hewing to the fashions.
Thanks so much for all of the responses, guys. I have a few points of rebuttal.
In my opinion, some folks here are perhaps fixating overly on the leadoff slot in and of itself, rather than looking at the Redbird offensive production On The Whole. Brendan Donovan simply must be in an RBI spot, because the 4-year veteran has shown himself over and over to be a terrific hitter with men on base — and particularly multiple men on base. And he’s mediocre with the bases empty. For Donovan and thus for the team, he must hit in the 3-6 range, where ribbies reside. (But probably not cleanup, as he’s been bad there.) This is particularly true with Ivan Herrera out of the lineup.
Option one: put Nootbaar back at leadoff. Pretty simple. A recent intense slump doesn’t outweigh every single thing that came before. Lars has the same career OPS at leadoff as he does overall (and better BB/K numbers at leadoff). And he hits as well with the bases empty as he does with men on, for his career. He ain’t Rickey Henderson but he’s fine there. Marmol seemed to understand this when he installed Lars at leadoff in April, but now he’s forgotten it. If there’s a slump you can ride it out. If Willson Contreras gets to stay at cleanup regardless of production, then we can do the same with Noot at leadoff, can’t we?
Option two: try one of the young guys. The fact that someone like Masyn Winn or Victor Scott has a lower OBP than ideal doesn’t disqualify them until they’ve been given a couple of weeks at leadoff, to see how they react. There are plenty of hitter who perform better at some lineup slots than others, so we don’t really know how Masyn or Victor might respond. (Masyn’s been really good at the 2-hole, so I’d prefer to leave him there, obviously. But at leadoff, Victor might blossom a bit, youneverknow.)
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By the by, I didn’t get into all of this before because (a)I know how my posts can get long-winded; and (b)I honestly didn’t expect much feedback, much less pushback.
And yeah, Brian, I do dislike Ollie personally and as a manager. The latter very much, for innumerable reasons. But I still bet the Birds to win the Pennant and the Series this year, as the odds were just too generous. So nothing would make me happier than to see Ollie sprayed with champagne in October.
And again, thanks for the myriad responses, folks.
“I’m not offering up any criticism towards Brendan, I’m simply a little surprised that a player who’s hit the baseball exceptionally well all season long hasn’t accumulated a few more RBI’s.”
Donovan has done just fine with men on base, with an .804 OPS this year (.843 for his career). I think we’re forced to conclude that there just haven’t been that many men on base for him this year.
By the way, once again Donovan is hitting leadoff, and it still ain’t working. Just .244 so far and a .639 OPS since Marmol returned him yet again to the #1 slot.
Donovan, career, .730 OPS with the bases empty.
Men on base, .843.
Multiple men on, roughly .900.This guy has zero business hitting leadoff. But that won’t stop Ollie, no sirree. As he’s done every season, Boy Genius manages the team based on things happening in his own head, rather than realities on the field.
But to leave on a positive and completely unrelated note, Nathan Church since May 1 is now batting .366/.429/.623 across AA and AAA, with just 16 strikeouts in 196 trips to the plate. Yeah, he’s turning 25 in a couple of weeks, but that exceptional plate discipline, plus his solid defense and baserunning, makes him a genuine prospect. (Now watch him wear a golden sombrero tomorrow.)
“I think VSII, Nootbaar, and Helsley all own that L. Nootbaar especially had a rough game. Ollie gets partial credit for choosing Vilade to pinch hit.”
Yup. And don’t forget the “strategy” of having Victor Scott NOT steal third base in the 10th. Really dumb, especially once there was one out.
By the way, this was to my knowledge the 8th time this season Victor has found himself on second base with one out. Maybe the most obvious of base stealing situations, right? Stealing 2nd with two outs, and stealing 3rd with one out, are the two times you should *always* send an elite base thief. And yet VSII has only tried for third base once. Once. A 94.4% base stealer, and he’s tried once. Because his manager apparently believes in an excruciating overabundance of caution on the base paths.
(By the way. Identical situation for the Cubs about a week ago. Crow-Armstrong on 2nd, one out, extra innings, Cubs down a run. Counsell sent him on the first pitch. Because Counsell is brilliant? Because he’s crazy reckless? No, because it just makes sense to try it in that situation. It simply makes sense, if you have a really good base stealer.)
Marmol is doing something unusually stupid with Victor Scott and Masyn Winn that I don’t believe any other manager has done with any other major leaguers in the past 40 years or so. Specifically, I don’t believe any other elite minor league base stealer has seen his stolen base attempts plummet like these guys, upon reaching MLB. (For the purposes of this assertion, I define “elite minor league base stealer” as someone who in his minor league career steals 50+ bases per 150 games, with at least an 80% success rate. Or 40 steals and 85%. Or 30 thefts and a 90% rate. That’s an elite minor league base stealer. And it describes both Winn and Scott.)
I cannot prove this, because one cannot prove a negative, but I believe that every single elite minor league base stealer who has become an MLB regular in the last forty or so years, has NOT seen his stolen base attempts precipitously decline like Scott & Winn. And most amazingly of all, thanks to two rule changes — larger base sizes and restrictive pickoff limits — we are living through an era when MLB stealing is easier than in decades!
I would like to offer 100 bucks to the charity of your choice, to anyone who can find JUST ONE elite minor league base stealer since 1985, who has gone on to accrue at least 2,000 MLB plate appearances, and seen his steal attempts per plate appearance drop by more than 60% after reaching MLB. Besides Scott and Winn, that is.
I believe that Marmol is truly breaking new ground here. But please, someone prove me wrong. Maybe you can make me despise Ollie a little bit less. It’s no fun hating your team’s manager this much, no matter how blindingly incompetent he is.
“Minor league catching numbers don’t give a lot of insight.”
I missed that episode, Albert. By “catching numbers,” are you referring to a specific skill like gunning runners or framing pitches? Because I’m sure that some minor league catching statistics are much more predictive than others — just as the stats with pitchers & hitters. Yadi for example threw out 46% in the minors, 40% in MLB. On the other hand, Yadi’s passed ball/error totals in the minors were unexceptional, and in the majors he was of course outstanding.
Apologies if anyone else already brought this up in a different thread, but Leonardo Bernal warrants a special mention these days.
May 8th to June 8th, Leo accrued 99 plate appearances, with an exceptional slash line of .382/.434/.685 and just 9 strikeouts. (Also 9 walks, 7 homers, and 6 doubles.) Overall, the 21-year-old has lifted his AA line for this season to .301/.383/.542 (151 OPS+), with a sturdy 21/25 BB/K ratio in 175 trips to the plate. He’s combining the excellent power of his 2022 season with the superlative plate discipline of his 2023 campaign.
Leo’s always been built like Campy. Now he’s hitting like him, too. The Cards have the best prospect bunch of pitchers & catchers (when the former group is healthy, that is) and Bernal may turn out to be the best of them all. He can really hit, he led all of High-A with a 35% caught stealing last year, and he’s even better at 38% this season. Definite top 40-50 overall prospect. The errors and passed balls are slightly elevated, and for me that’s all that’s keeping him from consideration for #1 Redbird farmhand.
Ian Petrutz had a very nice game yesterday for Peoria, and since mid-April the 22-year-old outfielder is hitting .348/.463/.551. Very impressive, right? But my favorite part, during this protracted hot streak he’s only fanned 7 times in 109 trips to the plate (and 14 walks).
I don’t wanna get everyone’s hopes up too high, but he looks like he could be one of those Plate Discipline Guys, like Matt Carpenter, Nootbaar, Donovan, who wildly exceeds his draft position and prospect ranking.
Maybe someone out there has seen him play and can offer insight on the glovework?
Thanks for the kind word, Jnevel.
I was probably the high man on Bernal, that’s true. Also at various times high man on Rainiel Rodriguez and Daric “weirdest career” Barton and Andrew Knizner and Yadi Molina and Bryan Anderson and Carson Kelly and Eli Marrero and Ivan Herrera and Jimmy Dale Crooks III and probably Pedro Pages a few years back. When it comes to farmhands, I’m a sucker for Cardinal catchers when they hit and aren’t too old.I could see the Bernal/Pages arrangement you suggest, roughly 70/30. The real question is, would that be history’s heftiest catching combo? And would Marmol somehow be forced to play Leo Bernal at second base for a game due to his incompetence, as happened with Pages this year?
