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If the Cardinals did acquire Cozart for SS, who plays 3rd – Gyorko or DeJong?
DeJong can play 2B, SS & 3B, while Gyorko can only play 2B & 3B, but Gyorko is the better 2B of the two and was one of the top defensive 3B’s in the league this year.
Would an acquisition of Cozart lead to a trade of Wong or Gyorko?
I would think DeJong would move into super-utility role, playing 4 days per week…
I think the Cardinals should be the leaders for Stanton, and the only reason they won’t get the trade done is that DeWitt is scared of the contract, based on his statements this summer. Of course, after Machado and Harper sign next year, Stanton’s contract is going to look very reasonable.
The Giants already have $166 million tied up in 8 players. They also have nothing to trade.
Boston would be better served just signing JD Martinez to be their DH. But they could package JBJ and Brian Johnson to the Marlins. JBJ is better than any outfielder the Cardinals will offer back. Johnson is not as highly ranked as any of the Cardinals pitchers that would be offered back.
Philadelphia is in the same division as the Marlins, which makes that trade unlikely. I don’t believe they are as far away as people make out, because they could sign say, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb this year, plus trade for Stanton, and offer Machado and Harper ten year deals worth $40 million per year next year, and they will STILL be under the luxury tax. But does Miami really want to face that possibility?
Yeah, so the Cardinals walked away from a trade for Ozuna with the Marlins last year. Instead they signed Fowler for 5 years/$82.5 million. Not only did Ozuna have a career year at the plate, he won a Gold Glove, while Fowler put up one of the worst defensive seasons among center fielders, in a year the Cardinals talked about needing defensive improvements.
https://www.fishstripes.com/2017/11/7/16621188/miami-marlins-marcell-ozuna-wins-2017-rawlings-gold-glove-award-left-fieldThe Opt Out is only a positive from most team’s perspective. The idea is, you are willing to give up more if he opts out.
Perhaps the Cardinals can structure a deal where the Marlins start off paying $1 million in the first year, $2 million in the second and….on to $10 million in the 10th year. That will be $55 million total, and would give the Marlins a significant reprieve as they get back on solid financial ground. It reduces the burden on the Cardinals in the last few years, and if the Cardinals are willing to eat some of Stanton’s salary in the final years (as they are doing with Leake) to trade him to an AL team, makes his deal entirely digestible.
“They would ask for the top guys, but they’re not going to get them…I would say maybe two of your fifth through tenth best pitchers.”
So, expanding Nightengale’s comments a little bit (4-11 instead of 5-10) – two of Alcantara, Fernandez, Gallen, Hicks, Gomber, Woodford, Seijas or Jones
“I dont have a problem with Stanton’s contract but I dont acquire players with the idea of breaking even.”
Here is the misconception. You don’t break even on an individual player. You have a portfolio of players that combined optimize your returns.
Modern portfolio theory was created in the 1950’s. If you are moving out to the efficient frontier, sometimes you buy assets you wouldn’t otherwise buy, based on their risk-return profile. Sometimes you short sell some assets.
The stated goal of the Cardinals is to contend every year. Let’s be real, they made no effort to contend the past two years. They conceded the division to the Cubs. If you’re fine conceding the division to the Cubs for another 1-3 years, you don’t overpay or “break-even” on some assets that make your on-field product, your “return” better. If you measure “returns” by getting to the playoffs, and you look at the depth of the star power of teams in the playoffs, you see why the Cardinals weren’t really a contender this year.
The Marlins figure to be trading Gordon and Stanton, at a minimum. If not all three:
https://www.fishstripes.com/2017/10/26/16089482/marlins-dee-gordon-marcell-ozuna-giancarlo-stanton-are-2017-gold-glove-award-finalists@bccran – You constantly cite your ANONYMOUS sources within the Cardinals organization, and then get upset whenever anybody dares question those sources or whatever statements you attribute to them, even though those statements often sound like nothing more than personal opinions or narratives. And you want to talk about credibility?
Then, you bash a guy for starting a website unrelated to sports? You want to bash him for going to St. Louis Community College? You couldn’t even spell Community right.
And you bash an article that came from a newspaper 100 miles from St. Louis? Do you know how journalists get started? THEY START IN SMALL MARKETS AND WORK THEIR WAY UP. I had friends (husband and wife) that started in West Lafayette, IN. Then they moved to Birmingham AL. Then, Minneapolis, MN. And so on. Every move was made with the idea of getting to a larger market, even if they had to start over as low man on the totem pole making less than the jobs they just left to move to a more expensive market. The name of the game in journalism is keep working your way up until you get where you want to be.
That wasn’t the first article to say Matheny should be fired, and it won’t be the last.
With regards to the Pham/Ozuna debate:
1) The question likely isn’t Pham v Ozuna. It’s Grichuk v Ozuna or Piscotty v Ozuna. And in those cases, the choice isn’t even up for debate.
2) To argue Ozuna is more likely to regress than Pham is kind of ridiculous – Ozuna is three years younger and has 3 seasons of 3 WAR or better offensively. Pham has one season of 3 or greater WAR (2017). Pham has only played 100 or more games five out of eleven years in his career. Last year was the first year he played more than 120. You have to play to contribute to the team. Why does anyone believe Pham will suddenly stop getting injured?Which slash line do you prefer:
A) 22 doubles, 2 triples, 23 HR, 73 RBI .306/.411/.520/.931
B) 30 doubles, 2 triples, 37 HR, 124 RBI .312/.376/.548/.9243) To argue Pham is better based on WAR – look at the numbers above – how does Pham have a higher offensive WAR? WAR is a deeply flawed metric and anyone who has ever studied statistics beyond an introductory level knows this. You don’t throw every variable under the sun into a model and drool over it’s predictive prowess. That renders all the variables non-significant and many of the variables are measuring the same thing. The size of the error term in calculating WAR is so big it renders 90% of player comparisons based on WAR useless.
4) To argue that salary is a factor – it’s not, at least for the next two years. What matters is, would an Ozuna upgrade over Grichuk or Piscotty likely help the team win enough games to get into the playoffs? Knowing that how the game is played is different than statistical models that shows the number of wins a player contributes, I would say yes.@Sooner – former Tampa Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey is one rumored candidate for Cards
“But expect him to land a big-time gig, with the Cardinals and Mets already rumored…”
Cardinals may be after the pitching coach from the Rays
https://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/what-the-rays-coaching-staff-shake-up-could-signal/2340189So, one former GM says the cost to acquire Stanton would be a starting OF, a top level pitching prospect and a mid-tier pitching prospect:
https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article177698496.htmlSo, a trade of Piscotty, Flaherty & Gomber for Stanton, with Miami paying at least $5 million per year over the last 5 years.
Cardinals trade Stanton at age 33 or 34 and also kick in $5 million per year over last 4-5 years, so the AL team that acquires him to be the DH then gets a $10 million discount.
If the Cardinals can pay $17 million to make Mike Leake go away, they can pay $25 million to trade Stanton when he is 33 or 34.
The Phillies are a big market team and only have one salary on the books after 2018. They can pay BOTH Machado and Harper $40 million per year, and still be $100 million under the luxury tax.
They took on three bad contracts to get prospects this past year, and wound up flipping two of those bad contracts for more prospects. Management recently broke the news to the ownership group that they are planning another low payroll season, to which their ownership replied just don’t pass up any good deals.
They are all in for the offseason of Machado and Harper. Heck, they can even acquire Stanton, and STILL be about $70 million under the luxury tax.
Agreed about not wanting to overspend this year, given the free agent class next year.
But given DeWitt’s statement about long-term free agent contracts not working out, does anybody realistically expect the Cardinals to be in the bidding for Machado or Harper? I don’t.
And with a lot of teams wanting to bid on those two players, it might depress free agent prices for Moustakas, Frazier and Martinez this year.
Ortiz is Fowler’s biggest fan. That article was pretty damming about Fowler.
The only way you can address that as an organization is to open up ALL the outfield positions to competition next year. If Fowler is a $16.5 million 4th OF, so be it. That is the strongest possible message the organization can send.
To walk on eggshells about possibly moving him to LF is ridiculous. Tell him to live up to the contract or ride the pine.
For the Cardinals to acquire Stanton, there are a few things that need to happen:
1. They need to trade Dexter Fowler and his $16.5 million per year contract.
2. They need to get the Marlins to pay $5 million per year over the last 4-5 years of the contract. This will increase the prospect cost.
3. They need to be willing to eat at least $5 million per year (maybe even $10 million per year) over the last 4-5 years to trade him to an AL team after he turns 33 or so…which is still 6 years awayHere’s what DeWitt said earlier in the year:
““As you can see, some of the long-term free agent contracts don’t really work out toward the end. Clubs wish they hadn’t done them.”
https://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/jose-de-jesus-ortiz/ortiz-if-pujols-was-too-expensive-for-cards-so-is/article_4db83206-5aba-51a7-9dfd-87c820ba01d4.htmlMaybe missing the playoffs twice in a row has convinced him he needs All-Stars on the team, maybe it hasn’t.
So, bccran – what is the ROI of paying Fowler $6 million more per year than any other team was willing to offer him, AND giving him an extra year if you miss the playoffs?
What is the ROI of paying Cecil an amount that everybody said would “redefine” the market for relievers when he has allowed the second highest percentage of inherited runners to score and has had two stretches where he just couldn’t get anybody out?
What is the ROI of the $24 million the Cardinals invested in those players only to miss the playoffs because of them?
Oh, and I would’ve rather had Marcell Ozuna, but the Cardinals front office doesn’t have the cajones to make real trades, which is why we are stuck with Fowler for 4 more years.
Every home playoff game generates about $3.2 million in revenue for the owners.
The incremental cost between Fowler and Stanton is $10 million per year. That’s 3 home playoff games.
Win a world series, you have boost in ticket sales, advertising and merchandise for a year….
After throwing 50 pitches in the first four innings, Weaver has thrown 42 in the last two.
About time to take him out.
Grichuk is one of those people that can’t think in the batter’s box.
He spent the offseason before this last one working with Piscotty, and it screwed him up. He talks to Edmonds, has 3K’s
