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I hope and pray Rosenthal never throws another pitch for the Cardinals. I wish him well in his recovery but I just hope he doesn’t ever pitch for St. Louis again.
I don’t claim to be right, NC315. All I claim is the right to say what I’m thinking. I value the metrics that are posted in this forum and posted elsewhere. But I also like looking for the subjective aspects of players. I dislike players that act like they’re special. And when one comes along that just wants to compete and get better, I’m all in for that player. So far, it seems like Pham is one of those players.
OK Ready to take on the AL Central. Hope to do a better job with this one.
To start I have the following eligible for free agency
Cleveland – Santana, Bruce, Jackson and Bauer
Minnesota – Hectar Santiago
Kansas City – Hosmer, Escobar, Moustakas, Cain, Melky Cabrera, Vargas – Ouch
White Sox – Miguel Gonzalez, Pelfry
Detroit – No one of consequence
If I have missed a key player just drop the name.Cleveland
Strengths – A very solid team. Good mix of youth and vets. Potential superstars in Lindor and Ramirez. Very deep bullpen with only one of top 5 over 3.00 ERA. Expect them to go hard to resign Bauer and Bruce. Minor league system solid. #18 coming into 2017 and key prospects did well
Weakness – Really not much if they resign key free agents. Bruce only impact bat in outfield.
Players we may want – We probably don’t have enough to trade for one of their key players. A possibility is to pick up minor league first baseman Bobby Bradley a potential big bat.
Players they may want – Possibly Pham to give them more pop in the outfield. Kelly if they didn’t have Mejia who is highly rated as a catcher.Minnesota
Strengths – Youth with potential impact (Broxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco). Power bat in Dozier.
Weaknesses – Pitching, both starting and relief. Traded Kintzler their only solid reliever and starter Santana (4.6 WAR) is 34 without much strength behind him. Minor league system weak #22 going into season and only two young shortstops in BA top 100.
Players we may want – Possibly Dozier. They would want Wong and probably a pitching prospect. We would not throw a top prospect in but probably a second level guy or two. Dozier would probably cut into Gyorko’s playing time. We would also be interested in Gordon, a highly rated minor league shortstop.
Players they would want – pitchers, pitchers, pitchers.Kansas City
Strengths – One of the best catchers in the game in Perez.
Weaknesses – Many key players free agents including Cain who we should have gone after last year instead of Fowler. Weak minor league system. 26th going into 2017 and no one in BA or MLB top 100. Moss as DH, Gordon serious fall off in performance. Aging pitchers, both starters and bullpen.
Players we may want – Moustakas and Hosmer and possibly Cain if we could dump Fowler. Mondesi who had an awful season a dark horse.
Players they may want – outfielders and pitchers but they have very little to offer. Not a good team to trade with but we need to seriously consider their free agents, particularly Moustakas.White Sox
Strengths – Abreu 4.7 WAR. Very strong minor league system with 8 of BA’s top 100. Ranked 5th going into 2017 and only got better.
Weaknesses – Young players trying to gain traction. Avisil Garcia a strong year 4.5 WAR after a cumulative .1 over 5 previous seasons. Another of the guys coming from nowhere to a miracle season. High risk as something smells here. Wonder if there is a new PED that the tests miss. Pitching very weak. Already released Holland and traded two of their best relief pitchers in Swarzak and Robertson. Swarzak had highest WAR among pitchers (1.8)
Players we may want – Abreu if we can clear out the roadblock at 1b. A number of their top prospects (Moncada, et.al.) but they probably didn’t trade for those guys to trade them away.
Players they may want – Outfield and pitching prospects. They may also be interested in a solid vet like Gyorko or Carpenter to help the young guys along.Detroit
Strengths – aging Kinzer is probably only valuable guy there after the scorched earth flurry that sent Verlander, Quintana, Avila, Justin Wilson, JD Martinez and Upton away. Miguel Cabrera stays with a very long 30 Million contract into eternity. Their minor league system has improved and will improve more with some of the prospects they picked up in the trades. They came into the 2017 ranked 25th and have 4 in BA’s top 100.
Weaknesses – Starting from scratch except for Miggy and Kinsler both long in the tooth. Aging DH Victor Martinez with negative WAR in 2017. Minor league system has been weak for years.
Players we may want – Shane Green a relief pitcher who had a breakout year (172 ERA+ and 2.4 WAR)
Players they may want – Just about any prospect we have.Brian,I think #3 is almost assured not to happen from the Cards POV. Why would the team pay nearly $10 million for half a year of a guy coming off injury? Duke was different as his money was guaranteed.
There is another option you didn’t mention. Call it option #5. It is that the Cards sign Rosenthal to a major league deal at a highly reduced or highly incentive laden deal. The Cards still get his services for the part of the season he pitches but at a rate that reflects his limited contributions. At the same time it allows him to become a FA at the end of the year. I wouldn’t do it but it is a possibility.
Phamfoolery is failing to realize that Pham’s regression to his pre 2017 level is the same level of fwar per plate appearance as Ozuna had in his career year. And that was with bad eyes. Now that his eye problems have lessened, why wouldn’t he be even better. Oh, did I forget to point out that he is much cheaper for the next 2 years and has 2 additional years of control?
CC, thanks for the reply on Rosenthal. Option #3 did not specify the salary details, so I see your Option #5 as just further detail on how option #3 could be executed.
Rosenthal made $6.4 million last year and would be due for a raise.
We know that up to a 20% pay cut would be allowed, or $5.12 MM. That is the lowest possible point. Even if he was due for a raise to your $10 MM number, he is only going to pitch half the year at best.
My guess is the two sides could agree to a number comparable to his 2017 salary or maybe even a slightly lower base plus appearance incentives. (Basically, this is your option #5.)
On the other hand, if Boras plays hardball on the salary level and/or is talking arbitration, then the Cards could threaten non-tender. I think Boras will compromise. Here is why. While I believe Rosenthal could get a 2018 MLB contract from another team, given his injury status, it is hard to see how the money would be more than the Cards would be required to offer. Remember that once he is non-tendered, the 20% maximum cut does not apply to other teams’ offers. The other clubs can offer him whatever they want.
Bottom line, I can why each side would be motivated to compromise on a one-year deal.
I am guessing you favor the non-tender, but that seems based on a $10 MM salary assumption that I sense is too high.
I would non tender at $5.2 guaranteed. There are going to be good relievers on the market for near that that we could have for tge entire year. I MIGHT consider a major league deal with a low base + incentives.
Without making him a free agent first, they cannot offer a major league contract with a low base plus incentives. At that point, Boras will almost certainly look for the best deal on the market. Odds are it would not be with StL.
I do get your point that $5 MM-plus could be spent to get a free agent reliever for the entire year, but the price of poker has gone up. Here are some examples of one year deals with relievers from last off-season. Not exactly front liners in this price range.
Joaquin Benoit $7.5 MM, age 39, 4.65 ERA
Neftali Feliz $5.35 MM, 5.48 ERA
Boone Logan $6.5 MM, 4.71 ERA then injured
Koji Uehara $6 MM, age 42, 3.98 ERAEdit. I removed Jerry Blevins, who is a lefty and Greg Holland, who had incentives and a vesting option.
Are you really going to make me look up relievers that were signed cheaper and performed better? Or look at what type of seasons these guys had in 2016 to merit these contracts? What they actually were paid compared to what was expected is the only real relevant fact, wouldn’t you agree?
With regards to the Pham/Ozuna debate:
1) The question likely isn’t Pham v Ozuna. It’s Grichuk v Ozuna or Piscotty v Ozuna. And in those cases, the choice isn’t even up for debate.
2) To argue Ozuna is more likely to regress than Pham is kind of ridiculous – Ozuna is three years younger and has 3 seasons of 3 WAR or better offensively. Pham has one season of 3 or greater WAR (2017). Pham has only played 100 or more games five out of eleven years in his career. Last year was the first year he played more than 120. You have to play to contribute to the team. Why does anyone believe Pham will suddenly stop getting injured?Which slash line do you prefer:
A) 22 doubles, 2 triples, 23 HR, 73 RBI .306/.411/.520/.931
B) 30 doubles, 2 triples, 37 HR, 124 RBI .312/.376/.548/.9243) To argue Pham is better based on WAR – look at the numbers above – how does Pham have a higher offensive WAR? WAR is a deeply flawed metric and anyone who has ever studied statistics beyond an introductory level knows this. You don’t throw every variable under the sun into a model and drool over it’s predictive prowess. That renders all the variables non-significant and many of the variables are measuring the same thing. The size of the error term in calculating WAR is so big it renders 90% of player comparisons based on WAR useless.
4) To argue that salary is a factor – it’s not, at least for the next two years. What matters is, would an Ozuna upgrade over Grichuk or Piscotty likely help the team win enough games to get into the playoffs? Knowing that how the game is played is different than statistical models that shows the number of wins a player contributes, I would say yes.CC, do whatever research you want. No problem if you don’t. My quick look at free agents indicated almost all of the good relievers did not have to settle for one-year deals. The ones who did were either old or coming off a bad year or both. So there does not seem many to compare to. As a reminder of the current market, Cecil got four years.
My conclusion is that finding a good, reasonably-priced Rosenthal replacement on a one-year free agent contract may not be easy. A trade might be a better approach.
P.S. It will be interesting to see what Nicasio wants to come back. I bet he wants multiple years and should get it from somewhere.
Only to make an apples-to-apples comparison to keeping Rosenthal for 2018. That was the discussion, I thought.
The team may also be in the market for a proven closer, but that would surely be for multiple years and would seem very much separate from whether or not to non-tender Rosenthal.
Maybe if they both re-sign Nicasio and get a closer, they would not feel Rosenthal is necessary, but adding two expensive free agent relievers (almost certainly on multi-year contracts) may be expecting too much, given the other roster needs.
CC…
i like the idea of Ozuna centering on Grichuk or Piscotty…though i might think they’d shy away as Grich is arb eligible right? and PIscotty already has a deal…now if they moved Stanton already before the Ozuna to us deal then absolutely either woudl be good…brings up a good question…who right now has more trade value? Grichuk or Piscotty?
PIscotty’s contract and poor year could be big red flags from getting good value…Grichuk’s value seems to be exactly what he is showing but he is arb eligible now and how much is a k heavy outfielder who cant lay off sliders and high cheese?Jags, I also like a trade for Ozuna centered around o e of those guys but I doubt Miami does.
I have wondered a lot about who between Grichuk and Piscotty is worth more and also who I’d prefer to keep. Change my.mind daily. Maybe that can be my next poll question.
Jags, I also like a trade for Ozuna centered around o e of those guys but I doubt Miami does.
I have wondered a lot about who between Grichuk and Piscotty is worth more and also who I’d prefer to keep. Change my.mind daily. Maybe that can be my next poll question.
That’s easy for me. I only want Piscotty if he’s starting, but only if he is not flanked by a combination of Pham, Fowler, Martinez, or Grichuk….(or Bader/O’Neill) Given Fowler isn’t going anywhere and Pham is more valuable to us than anyone else, I see Piscotty as trade-bait (and not a sunk cost addition to a deal either)
I only want Grichuk as a 4th outfielder. He’s a great 4th outfielder with his 3-position flexibility, power, and ability to crush LH pitching. The issue there is that Bader is basically the same player.
Grichuk will nearly be worth market-value in 2018-2019 so Bader is probably the better option for that role going forward.
Given all that, I’d try and trade both unless we make some out-of-the-box type move to get Martinez/Stanton/etc.
If it wasn’t clear, I think Piscotty is more valuable, but Grichuk may be more valuable to us as a 4th outfielder. He is good insurance against possible Fowler and Pham injuries.
question…
which would you prefer?
-Longoria + Archer
or
-Stroman + DonaldsonBoth seem to have positives and negatives to me
also:
-Stanton + Gordon – Wong
or
-Hosmer + Ozuna – PiscottyGood questions Jag:
I would go with Longoria and Archer because of team control and Archer teamed with CMart, Reyes, and Weaver would be dynamic.
I would go with Hosmer and Ozuna minus Piscotty. Although I would rather have Yelich than Ozuna.
Also, I think Grichuk has more value than Piscotty. Not even close in my book.
Really good questions, I think I’d rather have Stanton and Gordpn + Hosmer – Carp and Wong and if possible Longo + archer
After reading Brian’s article on Rosenthal, and thinking about the situation some more, I’m inclined to think that Rosenthal will be non-tendered. When a player signs on with Boras, it means that, for that player, its all about the money, only the money. There’s no sense of loyalty, no caring. Even if Rosenthal comes back next August, it will probably still take another year before he is back to his old form, if that even happens. So why would the Cardinals want to put so much time and energy and patience and money into a player that’s sure to leave if another organization offers him more money? There’s no future for the organization in that. All you’re doing is setting the player and his agent up for a big payoff in free agency.
Lynn came back and pitched fine if not great…. so did Duke who is older and in less time…. why would you assume rosenthal wouldnt be able to help next year?
I disagree on it being a black and white issue with Boras clients, each player and their feelings and positions and desires are all slightly different and while Boras does seem to go for the money and i am sure Rosy wants that too, it is unfair to assume the players desires.
IMO …I think role is what has always driven Rosy, he has never let the hope of starting go away, but he knows he can be a shut down closer. Injuries need and performance knocked him out of either of those roles where he struggled until he was given a shot back at the spotlight. Whether being a close or a starter he seems like he wants and prefers the spotlight. The Cards gave him back that closer role and he started to flourish again. To me, if the Cardinals come at him with the promise of that spotlight they might be able to win him over.
I dont see how you non tender a guy who could be a difference maker when he comes back. He isnt a starter so his stamina wont need to be built back up like Lynn or Waino, and while we cant expect Duke miracles every day we shouldnt throw away a valuable part no matter what…heck we could even trade him when he comes back if we want…we arent in a position where we have an absolute lock for replacing our closer short or long term…
I am interested in how insurance might affect this situation, lets say we pay him and he doesnt play due to recovery etc. i am guessing insurance woudl come into play…maybe not…but id like to know
All of this sounds a lot like the “release Duke” comments that were thrown out last offseason as he had no chance of helping us at all. yet he did, AND was very good….AND had a lot of motivation to do so.
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