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Just want to point out one thing here that Goold has mentioned a few times:
People often ask in these chats about the prospect cost in acquiring someone like Donaldson or Stanton. My question is about the actual cost. Any savings derived from the presumed departures of Lynn, Duke, and Rosenthal have already more than evaporated thanks to the large salary increases due to Carpenter, Martinez, Wong, and Molina. The payroll was a shade under $150 million at the start of 2017; are the Cardinals even willing/able to add a $20+ million bat next season?
by JJ October 17 at 3:02 PMThey can handle a rise like that, yes. They’ll see more than that in added revenue from the TV deal, and they were already in position to stomach a payroll in the $175m range, according to ownership’s five-year plan discussed in PD reports in 2014.
by Derrick Goold October 17 at 3:03 PMWhere’s the ceiling? Because right now there is $110 million on the payroll for the 2019 season, so a 40-50 million a year contract would bring that up to 150-160 million, (maybe $175 million once that roster is filled out) and it seems to me that the fanbase would be justified to expect that kind of investment from the Cardinals.
by strider379 July 12 at 12:59 AMThe Cardinals can go that high, yes. They’re ready to move up, and they’ll have more space and more revenue coming in in the coming years, so that’s realistic.
by Derrick Goold July 12 at 1:00 AMI wouldn’t mind a guy like Alex Cobb because he could represent a huge bargain if he returns to form, which is rare in a free agent. He’s also young. I have no idea what his market is, but if it’s similar to a guy like JA Happ or Charlie Morton, then I could get behind adding a starter. We have the depth to cover for injuries if something like a Brandon McCarthy-type signing happens.
The guys that aren’t living up to the contracts: Jimenez, Garza, Leake, Nolasco….those are the guys to stay away from and I fear Lynn will be in that category.
I have been using $170-175 million as a payroll number since this represents about what it would take to return to the upper third of payroll next year which is where management has said they want to be.
I had been thinking $158.6M since that takes us to 5% over ($7.4M) our 2017 payroll of $151.2M.
We’ve averaged spending around 5% more per year on payroll since 2007. With $126.0M on the books for 2018 right now, that’s about $32.6M to spend, but if we go to $170.0M, that’s $44.0M, or $175.0M, giving the team $50.0M extra to spend on payroll.
With just $33M to spend, Stanton is unattainable without some maneuvering since we need to spend on other upgrades as well. I’d like to see $10-15M spent on the bullpen. We are losing over $20M in salary from the 2017 bullpen ~ Oh, Rosenthal, Siegrist, Broxton, Duke, and Nicasio.
They have also reduced payroll by $10M because of Jhonny Peralta’s departure, and another $11M with the departure of Mike Leake. (The Mariners, like the Cardinals, have nobody to blame but themselves for acquiring this monumental head case. I know he has been good for the Mariners. But he was good for the Cardinals for awhile, also.) On top of the savings gotten from the departure of Peralta and Leake, if they can get the Marlins to take back a significant amount of Stanton’s insane contract, and if they increase payroll significantly because of their TV deal, then they will have enough money to make several improvements to their roster.
Thanks for all the feedback folks… much appreciated!
I know I tend to look at the budget ona year to year basis, but with 19mil coming off after next year (Waino) it made me think whether this is an average type of thing…not a hard fast 5% over or top 1/3 thing… sure i think that is goal and you have to have those kind of numbers in place to get you started but i dont think they are hard and fast rules if opportunities come up…and i think stanton is one of those rare opportunities like Pujols big contract, Price, Heyward Robert etc. that you keep the budget in mind for but are willing to disregard for the rare opportunity….i agree Stanton is expensive but i could see Waino’s money coming off the books and us having young internal rotation options for 2019 being particularly relevant to Stantons acquisition if money is talking…you can go a bit past your normal threshold this year as you know you have money ccoming off the following year, that you may want to apply now seeing as that money woudl be potentially going towards the same solution
nevertheless…i dont see why people are so against Stanton;s contract…it isnt much really for the caliber of player he is…if 7-8mil is valuation per WAR…he is MORE than making up for that valuation
People keep screaming Machado and Harper and Trout but do you really think those gusy will come cheaper than Stantons contract? Surer Stanton is a few years older, but he is still 3 years from 30 right? he only hits 30mil for two years of the contract IF he opts to stay in… he is basically 25mil per year…and at 25 mil per year (if we can get the Marlins to eat whatever it takes to keep his contract at that average over the course of it i dont see the big problem
People complain about not having superstars and these big time players yet the minute one is available for basically just money they dont want to pay them
We have basically no chance at Harper or Trout or Machado…but we have a legitimate chance to get a superstar power hitting good defender who fits a direct need for the team…he puts up good numbers, and puts butts in seats even if we arent winning…he gets national coverage regardless of wins and losses and even can help out with marketing StL as a destination for other FAs and Cubans too…
he had a 8.8?WAR this year offense and defense (7.6in offense alone)…that’s what 72mil ish valuation?? Maybe that is the highest you will see from him, but so what? if he produces 5 WAR he is still a bargain…even 4 woudl be good…and sure we may pay for some later contract lows in WAR, but you may have already gotten more valuation in previous years than you were paying anyways…
if he keeps the contract…there is:
-10 years left
-285 million total left
-let’s say an average of 4 WAR per year at 8mil per WAR…is 32million per year…320million for 10 yrs
-he ends the contract at 37….so lets say decline from 34-37 (4yrs)…so as a parallel Carlos Beltran from 34-37 for WAR was….4.7, 3.9, 2.3, to a crazy low -.2.. (though this is a little off as he has put up about 1per year average since 37…but still i like it as it might assume a major injury or something)…still from 34-3 Beltran produced 10.7 WAR divided by 4…is 2.675 WAR per year at 8million valuation…that is 21.4million per year on average….for Beltran…might not be a perfect parallel but they are both good players in good shape who came up early and are outfielders who hit for power
-so…with that example..yes…you’d be overpaying at the end of the contract for those specific years in theory…but all it would take is 2 or 3 big WAR years to make those end of year WAR overpays even out…and possibly even make us come out ahead
-for example..if we got the next 3 years at WAR of 6 from Stanton…48million valuation….he is getting 25, 26, 26 million each year… that is 23million, 22mil, 22mil savings each year…and that WAR isnt even close to what he CAN put up as we have seen…
-the last 4 years of Stantons contract are 32,32, 29, 25…take off the 21million per year on average that he will still potentially be producing (via BEltran example)…that leaves is with an overpay of 11,11,8,4 million…34million total…with the above WAR valuation form 3 good years of 6 WAR…it woudl take less than 2 years (1.5yrs) of 6 WAR to make up for any end of year WAR drop off…just to break even…
-SO…with just hypothesizing 3 6 WAR years, 1.5 years of that 6 WAR valuation is actually savings on WAR production and valuation…(as long as the other years are not totally terrible…but we are talking 7 of the 10 years already…so if the other 3yrs were really bad it’d be bad…but i think in his prime years an average of 3ish WAR is not out of the question for Stanton…not taking into account 6WAR is still under what he has shown to be able to produce)-also this doesnt take into account rising cost of WAR or just rising salaries in general either
-so at the end of the day for as much of money it is…it really isnt that bad of a contract as the player has the potential to make it even a steal when it comes to WAR valuation…
Stanton is a good player, players that can put up huge WAR are not so common…id love a team of league minimum Tommy Pham’s putting up 7 WAR but are you really willing to depend on that for franchise building?
I picked Beltran at random…by the way…im sure someone coudl find better comparisons i guess…i just did this quick
Worrying so much about the end of the contract performance is just not something you can worry about much any more… there will always be another team who will pay that extra year or give that extra year if that is the stumbling block…sometimes it bites you but unless you take the chance you may never get the big names you really want…
Personally I am pretty fine with having no name teams…with some sprinkled veteran stars…i like the underrated offenses and building within…i dont really care much to have HR derby winners and HR titles …. but our team just isnt going right now…it is lacking the solidifying thump and fear in the middle that we have had for many years…just like we have done in the past we buy the talent we cant produce…and it seems we are lacking when it comes to the thing that costs the most…flash and thump…
Factoring in arbitration raises and the salaries for the minimum wage players we are currently sitting around $125M for 2018. Depending on how far the FO wants to push payroll I could see us adding at least $40M to annual payroll this winter, and that’s not counting any subtractions if were to trade someone like Gyroko, Grichuk, Piscotty, Fowler, Wong, or Carp.
Let’s say we end up with $50M to play with. Stanton would cost half of that and we would still need bullpen and rotation help. Someone like JD Martinez, Donaldson, or Hosmer would cost almost as much as Stanton for 2018 but not near as much long term obviously. Davis or Holland will be at least $15M per season, Lynn will want close to $20M, Arrieta will want $20M to $25M, Bruce at least $15M. Of course guys like Archer and Simmons are cheaper salary wise ($6.4M and $11M respectively), but will cost a lot in prospects.
There are so many different ways this could go I could type several pages with all of the possibilities and I know many of you could as well.
I think Lyons was our best reliever, and should not be considered for the rotation for 2 reasons:
1) Do we really want to rely more on Cecil?
2) Lyons has had his share of injuries, and may not be reliable for 30+ starts.I am surprised that Lynn wasn’t traded. Was there no better offer than what you can get for a pick between the second and third round next year?
“I could type several pages with all the possibilities and I know many of you could as well” That is unless you are jager, then you could easily type type 10-12 pages! Lol
The only starter without an injury history is Martinez so that really isnt a valid argument (and Lyon’s injury this past year wasn’t arm related). I only advocated using Lyons as a starter based on the aquisition of another lefty. That would still give you Sherrif and the acquired lefty even if Cecil falters).
I dont have a problem with Stanton’s contract but I dont acquire players with the idea of breaking even.
C27, my guess is that a factor in not trading Lynn could have been the negative perception to the players and fans alike of moving him out with the team still in the playoff race. Of course, we have no idea what other teams offered for two months of Lynn’s services.
CC…i get that opinion…i dont think his contract is as bad as many think…and while breaking even is a possibility it could also end up being very cheap potentially
i just think that Stanton’s best years are his next 3-4 years…he has shown the ability to put up crazy high WAR…getting 3-4 years of really good WAR would more than balance out the negative impact of the later years IMO… add in that he may opt out after 2020 anyways…so you’d be potentially ONLY paying for the good years anyways and that will almost definitely be a deal using WAR valuations compared to his salary
I get the worry about giving out big money…i do…but it’s price you pay for things that are expensive…id rather pay for the prime years of Stanton over the subprime years of JD or Donaldson…even if it is for fewer years… and id take Stantons prime years over Hosmer and Moustakas’….and really how much different will their salaries be?….and will either of them put up WAR approaching Stanton?
A couple of names to consider for young controlable bats; Max Kepler RF Twins. 2017 stats
AB 511
H 124
2B 32
3B 2
HR 19
RBI 69
BB 47
K 114
BA .243
OBP 312
SLG 425
will turn 25 in February 2018. Has less than 2 seasons MLB experience.Bats Left throw Left .I know someone threw out Michael Conforto `s name earlier a month or so back.He has some power 27 HRs in about 2/3 season . a slugging % .555 OBP .384. 113 Ks 57 BB .279 BA .Will turn 25 March 2018.Might be worth seeing if he could be gotten from the Mets.He will cost a couple of prospects and probably a zmajor league OF or Pitcher.
Twins were in the playoffs last year. I dont see them trading low cost talent since they expect to compete again next year. Maybe if we took on Maur’s $23mm but other than that it seems unlikely.
Twins have several OF options
Eddie Rosario L/R 26 years old.27 HRs
Bryon Buxton 24 years old 29 steals
Robbie Grossman 28 years old
Zach Granite Twins #25 prospect
Niko Goodrum 25 years old.
Danny Palka OF/1BCards could always toss in one of the mid level OFs to sweeten the pot.
Kapler doesn’t enthuse me with those numbers. But could he be a breakout guy? Breakout guys really can make your season. The problem is that they are almost impossible to predict in advance. To get Conforto you would have to pay the price of acquiring a starter. If Cards strike out with better options he might work. But he’d be expensive in terms of assets for a 4th outfielder.
CC- Mo has stated he prefers to the trade route.Just trying to find young controllable bats is not easy without overpaying.The only Free agent bats under 30 are Hosmer and Moustakas and Hosmer will get overpaid by someone .Moustakas is okay for 3B but he will get good money also.So unless MO and Girsh are pulling someone under the radar to trade for who knows what will happen?
I think like you said; Cards might have to gamble on a young bat hoping for a breakout season.Maybe someone who just got a taste of big league time or somebody hoping for a rebound or a change of scenery (Joc Pederson?)
I admit i am trying to figure out all options and still can`t figure out a likely choice.“I dont have a problem with Stanton’s contract but I dont acquire players with the idea of breaking even.”
Here is the misconception. You don’t break even on an individual player. You have a portfolio of players that combined optimize your returns.
Modern portfolio theory was created in the 1950’s. If you are moving out to the efficient frontier, sometimes you buy assets you wouldn’t otherwise buy, based on their risk-return profile. Sometimes you short sell some assets.
The stated goal of the Cardinals is to contend every year. Let’s be real, they made no effort to contend the past two years. They conceded the division to the Cubs. If you’re fine conceding the division to the Cubs for another 1-3 years, you don’t overpay or “break-even” on some assets that make your on-field product, your “return” better. If you measure “returns” by getting to the playoffs, and you look at the depth of the star power of teams in the playoffs, you see why the Cardinals weren’t really a contender this year.
I dont buy stocks with break-even projected returns to balance my portfolio no matter what their beta.
I think Conforto would be a starter for us but we would have to overpay to get him. What do the Mets need? They need a CF and a 3B. Maybe we send them Gyroko, Grichuk, and Fowler (and $4M) for Conforto. Of course Fowler would have to waive his NTC and who knows if he would. Actually, the guy I would like to get from the Mets is Matz. He had a great rookie year then dealt with injuries this year but still has tons of potential and control left. Gyroko, Grichuk, and Bader for Matz?
As for Pederson, I don’t think he would be much of an upgrade over Piscotty and Grichuk. He has kind of flamed out after breaking onto the scene with a good rookie year. Yes he had a good World Series but the rest of his 2017 stunk.
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