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If you get promoted by doing as close to nothing as possible the last two offseasons, you are going to continue doing as close to nothing as possible
I thought this article was a good read, especially “The most realistic maneuver involves the Marlins eating some of Stanton’s contract and getting nothing (or next to nothing) in return. Not a total salary dump, but as good as they can do.”
Three Marlins and Machado…
The Cardinals are still second in the league in attendance. And since TV contracts are a fixed value (and dramatically increasing next year), the only fan displeasure that will get DeWitt’s attention are attendance figures and corresponding ballpark revenue.
With Cameron Maybin going down, the Cardinals should trade Grichuk back to the Angels for David Fletcher and a pitching prospect.
We’re going to have to trade Grichuk in the offseason anyway, may as well get something useful for him (yes, I know the Angels have the worst farm system, but where are we going to really trade Grichuk and get anything of value?)
Because financial valuations of companies are based on expected future cash flows.
Miami is on pace to lose $60+ million this year. $500 million of the purchase price is going to pay off existing debt. Their are $488 million in future obligations, nearly $300 million of which are due to Stanton. Stanton’s contract increases nearly $10 million next year.
So, the question is:
Are the Marlins worth more with or without Stanton and his $25+ million per year contract?Given they are losing nearly $60 million this year, from a cash flow perspective, they will be worth more without Stanton’s contract.
Well, in watching Fowler in the field, I don’t think they are dinging him nearly enough for his range…
You are correct, Wong has always had error issues, but this year it is at a higher rate than his career average…Which is why he has gone from a little above average to bottom third…
Dealing Carpenter also opens up payroll, a bit.
He’s making $10 million this year, $13.75 next year, $14.75 the year after and has an $18.5 million option in 2020.
Replacing him with Voit for $500k opens up money to spend elsewhere.
Of course, the Yankees are the team needing a 1B, and they are trying to get under the luxury tax next year, so I don’t know where you would trade Carpenter.
No
https://m.mlb.com/news/article/210035584/mlb-cba-affects-draft-international-prospects/Re-reading the CBA link above looks like the Cardinals would get a pick after the 2nd round as long as they stay under the luxury tax (which they are comfortably under right now)
Have the Cardinals been linked to a trade prior to it happening recently?
It seems like most of the trades aren’t known about until they happen…That’s part of the reason I discount the Donaldson trade rumors (and the fact he only has one additional year of control and 3B is our best position this year)…
Here is the update, just past the halfway point. I chose to limit it to players that played at least 80 innings at a position (roughly 10 % of the season):
CF:
• Tommy Pham – 167.1 Innings, 6 DRS, 22.4 UZR/150
• Dexter Folwer – 532.2 Innings, -9 DRS, -11.9 UZR/150
RF:
• Stephen Piscotty – 532.2 Innings, 5 DRS, 0.4 UZR/150
• Randal Grichuk – 146.1 Innings, 0 DRS, -4.4 UZR/150
LF:
• Tommy Pham – 285 Innings, 3 DRS, 7.4 UZR/150
• Randal Grichuk – 322.2 Innings, 0 DRS, -10.9 UZR/150
• Jose Martinez – 119 Innings, -2 DRS, -11.4 UZR/150
3B
• Greg Garcia – 95.2 Innings, 1 DRS, 5.2 UZR/150
• Jedd Gyorko – 557.1 Innings, 11 DRS, 3.7 UZR/150
• Jhonny Peralta – 114 Innings, 1 DRS, -5.7 UZR/150
SS:
• Paul DeJong – 111 Innings, 2 DRS, 26.6 UZR/150
• Aledmys Diaz – 589 Innings, -9 DRS, -2.5 UZR/150
2B:
• Paul DeJong – 158 Innings, -1 DRS, -5.9 UZR/150
• Kolten Wong – 391 Innings, -2 DRS, -7.0 UZR/150
• Greg Garcia – 132.1 Innings, -1 DRS, -7.2 UZR/150
1B:
• Matt Carpenter – 626 Innings, 4 DRS, 1.8 UZR/150Notes:
• Dexter Fowler still ranks 3rd lowest by DRS and 2nd lowest by UZR/150 among qualified CF’s
• Out of 30 2B’s that have played at least 350 innings at 2B, 7 rank lower than Wong according to DRS and 5 rank lower according to UZR/150I count about six teams in all of baseball that have the financial capacity to trade for Stanton right now, and one of them is the Phillies, who are in the same division as the Marlins, and want Yelich as part of the package. So, you know just about any deal is preferable to trading Yelich and Stanton to the Phillies.
So, here is the breakdown:
AL East-
Boston is trying to stay under the luxury tax this year and Yankees want to be under next year, so they are out. Tampa would never be able to acquire. Baltimore and Toronto are at record payrolls and have expensive right fielders already.Nobody from the AL East will take Stanton this year.
AL Central
Detroit is trying to get under the luxury tax ASAP. White Sox are in sell-off mode.KC and Cleveland are at record payrolls and can’t acquire Stanton’s deal long term.
Minnesota has the payroll capacity now, but not long term, and they have a youth movement going on.
Nobody from the AL Central will take Stanton.
AL West:
Houston has a great lead in the West, they have payroll capacity, and Reddick is on a short term deal. They could acquire Stanton is the price was right. But they have a deep and loaded farm system.A’s can never acquire that type of contract.
Rangers Payroll is $190 million. They can’t acquire him. Angels are maxed out in spending as well.
Seattle probably has the payroll capacity. They have nothing to offer back. Maybe in a pure salary dump.
So, the Astros and Mariners are possibilities, each are unlikely for different reasons.
NL East:
This is trading within the division, so is the least preferable trade route.Phillies have the prospects, big market revenue, and a minimal payroll. They could acquire Stanton without much problem. But, they are going to be predatory, and you are setting yourself up to have your division rival beat you on a continual basis.
Nationals and Mets don’t have payroll capacity.
Atlanta does, but they have a very expensive Matt Kemp in right.
Only the Phillies can acquire Stanton and Yelich, but you are playing with fire dealing to divisional rivals.
NL Central
Cardinals have the capacity.Cubs were at payroll max last year and are close this year. They will be shedding up to $60 million this offseason, but they are likely to reinvest that in starting pitching.
Brewers and Reds have payroll capacity now, not long term. Pirates never have that capacity.
In the Central, the Cardinals and Cubs are the only ones that can afford Stanton. Cubs are unlikely due to their budget and need to invest in starting pitching. That leaves the Cardinals.
NL West:
Dodgers are trying to get under the luxury tax next year.Giants are at about $190 million and trying to stay under the luxury tax.
Rockies are at a record payroll and have a ton of outfielders already. Diamondbacks are payroll maxed out.
Padres have a low payroll and can afford Stanton’s contract. They also have prospects to send back.
So, that is your market for Stanton:
– Maybe Houston
– Maybe Seattle
– The Phillies (who are in the same division)
– The Cardinals
– Maybe the Cubs
– Maybe San DiegoI think if you are talking to the Marlins about a salary dump of Stanton, you can basically offer whatever package you want.
We could get a 2B back in a trade. We could use Greg Garcia, Gyorko, Meija or DeJong. All depends on whether the Cardinals are ready to move on from Wong and what they are getting back.
Just like with Carpenter.
The Cardinals should be seller.
The only exception is if they get a favorable trade package for a middle-of-the-order bat that will be controlled for multiple years – people like Stanton, Ozuna or Yelich.
Of those, only Stanton figures to be available without giving up 4-5 prospects, thus, he would be the only one in play.
A Donaldson trade doesn’t make sense, as he only has 1.3 years of control.
If you are betting on the Brewers collapsing, that is a fool’s errand. You have to play better than the other team and assume they are not going to collapse. That means the Cardinals would need to play at least 12 games over .500 the rest of the way, just to catch up to the Brewers, assuming the Brewers play .500 ball. But the Brewers have been winning at an increasing rate since Braun came back from the DL (he has missed half the season) and are now 8 games over for the first time this year.
Thus, the only legitimate buying opportunity is one where you get multiple years of control and the deal is too good to pass up.
The new qualifying offer only gives you a compensation pick after the third round unless the player signs with a team for a contract value greater than $50 million, in which case the compensation pick is after the 2nd round.
So, you are better off trading the player, knowing what kind of return you will get and knowing teams pay a premium for deadline deals.
Thus, Lynn should be traded if the Cardinals get to choose the compensation coming back (if they settle for pieces like they’ve been getting from Atlanta, they should take the draft pick)
They get a major league player to take Stanton’s spot (they don’t have prospects to call up), get a MLB-ready pitcher in the Top 50 prospects, AND clear $260 million in future obligations off their books.
If you read the article from USA Today, you see they are on pace to lose $60 million this year, have $500 million in debt, and $488 million in future obligations. $325 million of those future obligations are Stanton. They are trading $325 million in obligations for $66 million. That helps with the sale price of the club, which is how the current owners are going to make their money back.
So far, the only team that has stated they are willing to take on Stanton’s contract is Philadelphia. But they want Yelich included as part of the deal. Miami gets a greater return by dealing them separately, as Yelich on his own will likely bring back 4-5 prospects.
The other big contract they have to get rid of is Dee Gordon.
They are only trading Ozuna and Yelich to get major prospect hauls and rebuild the farm system (Ozuna and Yelich are on reasonable deals)…But if you trade two-out-of-three or all three, you need some major league players or major league-ready players coming back.
