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Major open question. When all is said and done, what takes precedence in the strategy decision ahead – the position in the standings or the overall record?
With two games to go, the Cardinals are assured to have a losing record at the all-star break, and will be somewhere between 4.5 and 8.5 games out of the division lead. Wild card seems highly unlikely.
Will the break be the time to make the call on what approach to take with the roster?
I don’t think this roster is terribly far off from being quite good. That said, there’s no reason not to explore what you can get for your impending free agents. I would imagine Lynn and Oh would collect at least a couple top 100 type guys in return. Rosenthal is another guy who will be pretty pricey next year and the production can probably be approximated with the right moves this offseason. Gyorko and Wong are sell high candidates. Carpenter might even be expendable. I hope they wouldn’t trade all these guys but a shuffle probably won’t hurt.
On the other side, if there is some low hanging fruit, I think you have to explore that as well. A guy like Donaldson or Quintana or one of the A’s may be a fit if we are collecting prospects in other trades. A bit of a retool of the lineup (and maybe the coaching staff) and you could have a contender again in 2018.
Question what has changed with qualifying offers and draft pick compensation in cba. In recent years an offer say around $17 million would get you 1 year of Lynn or assure you extra draft picks. Lynn for only 1 year at $17m is reasonable if he did not accept you need to weigh if the draft pick or picks is worth more than what you could get in return in trade.
Is this still the case or has the qualifying offer compensation pick program changed in cba updates.
The key change is that for a team to be able to make a qualifying offer, the player must have been with that same team for the entire preceding season.
As much as I like Lynn 17 million is nuts.That`s just crazy.Cards have kids waiting in wings to try for rotation spots.Lynn,OH,Carpenter, Rosenthal,Grichuk,even Gyorko should be avaialable for the right price.This bunch is simply running in place not a serious contender.Thats my opinion.
Of course I really doubt the FO would be forward thinking enough to really look ahead past the end of their noses and do anything radical like shaking up the roster.I expect a ( we tried to trade for a impact player but the cost was too high…..) press conference after a very low level trade.Not understanding about how to use the quotes yet on this platform, but in regards to $17M being nuts for Lynn. Remember Leake is making $18M for multiple years. Wainwright will be at something like $19.5M next year. If it comes down to losing him for nothing or get a draft pick for the risk of having him 1 year at this price I would offer a qualifying offer.
Remember he still would have to accept it, I would expect him to decline and look for multiple year deal anyway.
Can be a mute point if they can simply go get good value for him in trade this month.
1.) The Fowler trade was to lock in a lead off batter so Carp could hit third and swing with power. That failure has really upset the applecart.
2.) Peralta was supposed to be the starting 3B, but he come back overweight and even slower than usual. Big disappointment, because Gyorko was supposed to be a very good, versatile #5 infielder.
3.) Diaz was supposed to be the answer at SS. Now we may have to go shopping to fill the gap until Perez is ready in a few years. DeJong is probably not the everyday answer at that position.
My quess is that they will try to see what they can get with a Wong/Lynn/Oh package.
Wong,Lynn and Oh package……..I like the thought of trading Lynn and Oh…still on the fence about Kolten Wong.If Wong gets traded who starts at 2B? DeJong? Certainly not Carpenter.He did okay at 2B a couple of years ago but……..?
The new qualifying offer only gives you a compensation pick after the third round unless the player signs with a team for a contract value greater than $50 million, in which case the compensation pick is after the 2nd round.
So, you are better off trading the player, knowing what kind of return you will get and knowing teams pay a premium for deadline deals.
Thus, Lynn should be traded if the Cardinals get to choose the compensation coming back (if they settle for pieces like they’ve been getting from Atlanta, they should take the draft pick)
The Cardinals should be seller.
The only exception is if they get a favorable trade package for a middle-of-the-order bat that will be controlled for multiple years – people like Stanton, Ozuna or Yelich.
Of those, only Stanton figures to be available without giving up 4-5 prospects, thus, he would be the only one in play.
A Donaldson trade doesn’t make sense, as he only has 1.3 years of control.
If you are betting on the Brewers collapsing, that is a fool’s errand. You have to play better than the other team and assume they are not going to collapse. That means the Cardinals would need to play at least 12 games over .500 the rest of the way, just to catch up to the Brewers, assuming the Brewers play .500 ball. But the Brewers have been winning at an increasing rate since Braun came back from the DL (he has missed half the season) and are now 8 games over for the first time this year.
Thus, the only legitimate buying opportunity is one where you get multiple years of control and the deal is too good to pass up.
We could get a 2B back in a trade. We could use Greg Garcia, Gyorko, Meija or DeJong. All depends on whether the Cardinals are ready to move on from Wong and what they are getting back.
Just like with Carpenter.
I could see them being both a seller and a buyer. Trading Lynn and Oh is obvious but we could also see what Carp or Rosenthal could fetch. The buying should be limited to long term assets. Donaldson isn’t a long term asset IMO but Stanton would be.
Here are couple of bold trades:
Send Piscotty, Adolis Garcia, Diaz, Alcantara, and Hudson to the Marlins for Stanton.
Send Lynn, Oh, Leake, and Carp to Yankees for Torres and Clippard.
Insert Weaver into the rotation and call up Marco for the rotation.
Call up Sierra to platoon with Pham or Grichuk.LF Fowler
CF Pham or Sierra
RF Stanton
1B Voit
3B Gyorko
C Molina
2B Wong
SS DeJong
PMartinez
Waino
Wacha
Weaver
Marco (Reyes next year)We give Voit a shot the rest of the year to win the job. If not we go after Hosmer in the offseason.
Also could promote Torres next year to play SS as soon as he is healthy.
Could insert Reyes into rotation or bullpen as soon as he is healthy.At this point, I definitely would not be “all in” on a guy like Donaldson. I don’t think he makes our lineup strong enough to seriously contend this year, especially if he is added and Gyorko subtracted. If we don’t do that, it will cost some premium prospects, and I would not do that.
The Marlins have some intriguing players, but will most likely need to wait until their sale closes before anything can be finalized. Thus they probably will not be selling this year.
So for now, I would be shopping Lynn, Oh, and possibly Carpenter to see what we could get in terms of decent prospects. If little is available, you take your chances on possibly getting hot and sneaking away with the division title this year, although most likely we will be better equipped to compete in the coming years.
From bccran: 1.) The Fowler trade was to lock in a lead off batter so Carp could hit third and swing with power. That failure has really upset the applecart.
What a lousy move the Fowler signing has become. Putting an OF together for the future is greatly effected by having him around and paying him so much. There’s a lot of chatter about acquiring an OF with power to fill the middle of the order. We may need to trade off Piscotty instead. That Fowler money would come in handy in getting us a power bat instead of us doing the usual and winding up with Bourjos. Mozeliak will still be feeling the embarrassment as Fowler’s presence continues to disrupt this team going forward and his skills continue to evaporate.
We need to take a hard look at players who are inconsistent.
Carpenter – defense, baserunning, strikeouts
Grichek – plate discipline
Diaz – defemse, strike zone
Wong – defense, strike zone, Good defender but blows too many routine plays
Rosenthal – some games just awful
Lyons – great curveball but gets hit hard too often.
Bowman – Usually good but when he is bad, just awful. Much like Maness.Got to move Fowler to left field or trade him and cover a lot of his salary. Lot of good outfielders in the pipeline.
This could be Gyorko’s peak performance year.
No way we offer Oh a qualifying offer. We need to offer Lynn or trade him to someone who can sign him. You don’t get much for a rental unless it is someone like Chapman.
If we could get another starter move Wacha to the pen. He is usually good the first time through the order. However, he would probably go free agency later for sure if he is set on being a starter.
Carp in his declining years is an ideal fit for the American league where he can DH and back up infield positions.
No
https://m.mlb.com/news/article/210035584/mlb-cba-affects-draft-international-prospects/Re-reading the CBA link above looks like the Cardinals would get a pick after the 2nd round as long as they stay under the luxury tax (which they are comfortably under right now)
The Yankees need a first baseman for sure. But its way too early to tell if Voit is going to stick, so trading Carpenter might not be a good move.
We also have Piscotty and Martinez and Gyorko and Huffman to play 1B. If a trade of Carpenter upgrades the team in some way, we make the trade.
Forsch31,
A couple of years ago I would have thought you were crazy if you had said that. Now I totally agree. I just don’t see what good he is doing. Poor defense, low average, that doesn’t cut it. But then again, everybody has a bad year so maybe he can right the ship either in the 2nd half or 2018.
r/Rat
Dealing Carpenter also opens up payroll, a bit.
He’s making $10 million this year, $13.75 next year, $14.75 the year after and has an $18.5 million option in 2020.
Replacing him with Voit for $500k opens up money to spend elsewhere.
Of course, the Yankees are the team needing a 1B, and they are trying to get under the luxury tax next year, so I don’t know where you would trade Carpenter.
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