Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
is he going to be better than ozuna?
nope?
we’ll be fine. You can’t keep everybody. At some point you have to pay to play or you stay mired in mediocrity.
I’m guessing it is adolis garcia… similar to bader ceiling wise but has that arm and you never know…
Well, i made myself clear before it was done, but i want to see what the final cost is before i say “yay”… overall if it is just alcantara and some lesser guys i think we did pretty well.
I am me. Bernie is human and is wrong sometimes. Experts in their field do that (and I dont consider bernie an expert).
Remember those scientists in the 1800s who didnt even know about einstein-ian physics? Yeah, they were wrong.
And smarter than bernie.
… You just made my argument for me when you said it would deplete the farm to do that.
And considering how absurdly deep we are you should think about what you just tried to argue again.
Yelich is a fine player same as ozuna. But in no way shape or form is he worth what they’re asking for. Ozuna? He probably is.
I am definitely starting to wonder if having so many options is paralyzing us and getting some stones is necessary.
… Bernie is also wrong.
I wouldnt argue with yelich. I would argue at his price and if ANYTHING pushed us to dump fowler I would cheer.
We simply dont need a centerfielder and consistency doesnt equal better quality.
…it Sure helps to be fair.
It has been pointed out that Baltimore wouldn’t want dejong they would want pitching. Dejong would get dealt for someone else. but regardless…
Dejong is a decent player. Decent. I would hold him unless a better situation develops. Nothing more nothing less.
Better situations happen.
I’m shorthanding this (only baseball reference) because I dont have the time:
Ozuna War :
Age 22: 0.6
23: 4.5
24: 0.4
25: 2.5
26: 5.8Yelich :
21: 1.4
22: 3.7
23: 3.5
24: 5.3
25: 3.9So what youve got is a guy who is more consistent yet very good (yelich) and a guy who is less consistent with better peaks and way more power.
One plays center and one plays left.
Which makes one a better value (yelich) especially because of consistency but one a better player (ozuna) because higher end WAR is an exponential value function.
When you get above 4 WAR, THINGS GET WAY MORE VALUABLE. Yes, yelich has one year above five. That makes him exceedingly valuable.
Ozuna has one at almost six. Think of it like the richter scale. When you get that high, the value added for every .1 points is ridiculous.
Below 3.5? Not a huge difference because you start out small.
Above five? The value added is exponential.
Ozuna also has significantly harder comparisons because he plays left not center. You put up a 5.8 WAR in left you bloody earned it.
At best, you call it equal… Which is fine. Either way, yelich is not the better player. And I can guaruntee you that ozuna fits us better. We do not need another centerfielder.
Dejong is more valuable as a trade chip than at third where we have a guy who is comparable signed reasonably.
Ditto at second.
I repeat : soriano. Grichuk. Diaz.
Risk/reward matters.
When you have too many guys, and you make trades to improve, stuff happens. IF they move dejong but improve at the position I would be fine with it. That’s how this game is played.
Yelich is the better value and plays center which is harder to find.
He is not the better player.
Better value matters.
Age 26 career year is generally breakout year.
Age 30 career year is generally fools gold.
Here’s a hint : one is fowler one is ozuna.
Ozuna hit 37 homers in florida.
Think about that again. Not colorado. Florida.
He’s legit. Will have to adjust to a lineup without stanton and that will hurt but still.
.. To give you an idea of how bad of a contact fowler actually is :
Fowler WAR : 1.6 in baseball reference
2.7 fanhraphsGrichuk: 1.0 in bout 80 less pas in baseball reference
1.4 on fangraphsI will add grichuk played the harder positions (centerfield is an easier comp vs other players)
In other words, he was roughly just as good as grichuk. Better by a little bit. But not much.
Last I checked, people gave up on grichuk for very good reason
I won’t even go into the comparison with ozuna because that’s a joke.
Fowler the albatross needs to go. Period.
…as for fowler.
He is a decent player. That’s it. And his defense is so bad even with those stats he couldnt get his WAR over 2.
Bad player? No. Dump as fast as possible? Yes. You can get the same production from bader with slightly less hitting. Or probably sierra with no hitting.
His perceptional value is significantly higher than his actual value especially to us when we have about six guys who can do the same thing.
And his value has nowhere to go but down. WAY down.
There is nothing positive to be gained by keeping him. So you dump him posthaste.
You dont get much higher in value than going from low minors to mlb in a year with that kind of stats.
Flahertys control is awesome. His stuff isnt. It is above average but not reyeslike.
He is cheap. Even if he maxed out as a #2 you dont get a higher value than right now.
Shooting stars generally fall off (sometimes hard) the next year. It is relatively rare for them to keep pushing forward.
I think his performance in the bigs was a medium term warning. At best, he got there too quick IMO.
His value has peaked for a while from what I can see and saw in his pitching.
Thus, if they trade him at peak value they probably know what they are doing.
…I cant speak for anyone else. I don’t want to dump dejong. I am just indifferent if we do.
We have a bunch of average to above average players. Dejong is one of them. If you acquire a star (machado is one) then those players are expendable.
We need stars. Plural. Not single. It was that way even with stanton.
There isnt much more to it.
Dejong is nice. If you take it a step further and look big picture… He is just that — nice.
Machado would be the best ss in the game or damn close.
Nothing more needs to be said. If you cant see the difference well…
… And yes, regression is a legitimate fear. Look at alfonso sorianos career… Hot or miss from year to year in the extreme.
You have to overpay to get guys that good.
Would I do it? Depends on what options are out there. Hudson and flaherty don’t make me blink. Alcantara does because I think he will be our closer very soon. I think Flaherty might have peaked… Hudson’s k rate scares me. Just my opinion I was lower on them than some — pretty much didnt vote for hudson in the prospect voting.
But if we keep signing arms I dont know if that even matters. Our farm has enough arms that bullpen will be stocked in some way shape or form.
When you go about ten or twelve deep in arms that should make it and do well in aaa and aa you can afford a couple overpays.
There’s a lot of ways things can go. There’s tons of moving parts on all sides right now.
Keep in mind the free agent class next year will allow for a lot of things. It is entirely possible that a player might want to sign sooner to beat the rush and lock in a contract.
…and maybe it isnt long term. 3 years/75 million so he can do this without all the contract competition? Who knows…
All he basically said was we don’t do rentals. Extensions happen.
I can go either way. His bat screams occasional severe downside similar to soriano or at the extreme randall grichuk.
On his upside, his could be an mvp candidate. On his downside awful.
…. Or you could have a yearly mvp candidate in machado.
You deal him because you get a better player. You don’t if you think he will keep it up.
Either way, with machado he has no position and thus no place on this team.
… Also, dejong only has maximum value at shortstop. At third his value is significantly lower (probably 1/3 of his value at short and that is being kind).
Gyorko at third where he is a similar value player and trading dejong would probably be a better option for the team.
Getting machado if it happens pretty much screams that dejong will have a new home.
