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It escapes me why this “O’Neill vs. Arozarena” narrative is still being pushed. I just showed clear valdation that the Rays had been pursuing Randy for multiple years. So it wasn’t a choice in making the trade. They knew who they wanted.
A very interesting article by Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline is up. He reports the Rays and Cardinals had been talking about a multi-player trade in 2017, about which he mentioned this:
“One thing for certain was that Arozarena would have been a smaller piece in that deal had it gone through.”
Mayo talks with the Rays pro scouting director, who outlined in detail how they had tracked Arozarena for multiple years. So, the speculation that the Cardinals could have included O’Neill or Bader or Thomas or whoever and still made the 2020 trade is almost certainly wrong.
P.S. Also note that the Rays exec said they did not expect Randy to be an Aroldis Chapman-kind of acquisition, but they liked his future value.
The #Rays nearly got Randy Arozarena from the #STLCards in a multi-player blockbuster in 2017. Here's the story of how they stuck with it and got him two years later: https://t.co/JPeqwbuSSK pic.twitter.com/GEJuwUXamY
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) October 20, 2020
The Cubs have laid off over 100 employees, including 47 full timers on the baseball operations side. They include major cuts in scouting and international. Ouch!
A general observation. The dogged use of Triple-A slash lines as the best answer for seemingly every comparative question is likely why there is often confusion about and/or disagreement with comments you make, since it does always jibe with other data points.
If one could just use a spreadsheet to accurately rank prospects by OPS or ERA (or whatever measure chosen for pitchers), scouting and prospect evaluation could be so much simpler and in fact, done by machines.
52 weeks a year, a lot is happening in the #stlcards world. On Wednesdays, @DannyMacTV and I outline the key news items and explain what they mean for the present and future. Then stop by The Cardinal Nation for even more depth on these important topics, both majors and minors. https://t.co/sUo43f3uuL
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) October 21, 2020
bccran wrote:
I don’t know if you had O’Neill as a better prospect than Arozarena, 25, but I sure didn’t.
bccran, please focus on your sentence above. You are again trying to shift the dialogue because the point you made does not appear to be accurate. 2019 was the most recent time the two were both prospects so they could be compared directly. At that time, O’NEILL was considered the better prospect of the two, even by your own vote. That wasn’t just here, but on national lists as well.
Elevating your view of Arozarena later because of his 2019 season is understandable, but by then O’NEILL was no longer a prospect. I checked the 2020 voting thread here at TCN and you did not participate in that part. However, the community overall placed Randy 4th, which was lower than O’NEILL’s third the year before.
None of these data points (and more than I can provide) support your contention that Arozarena was a better prospect than O’NEILL.
P.S. One should not have to search for the 2019 community vote thread. I provided the link in this discussion when I cited it yesterday. It is also included in the very first post of the 2020 voting thread, which is conveniently pinned to the top of this forum.
Not that it is worth anything, but John Smoltz just said that if he could choose between a defensive catcher and an offensive one, he would take the better hitter.
What follows is very interesting, as it seems to conflict with the common narrative that Ozuna was anxious to return to StL.
As a generic comment not specific to Ozuna, family considerations can be a big deal for some players. Yet most of the time, we never hear about it (nor should we, as it is not our business, IMO).
Included here is some discussion of whether or not Marcell Ozuna was happy in STL. Bottom line: he was much happier (and played better) when his family was around, and that didn’t happen often. Was it because of the city? I don’t know, but I know he wanted to be closer to Miami. https://t.co/owtg9PNBox
— Jeff Jones (@jmjones) October 21, 2020
bikemike, one has to wonder if they would be gun shy trading O’Neill due that very risk – that it might backfire.
But how long is a fair test? I think most would agree O’Neill was not rushed to StL like Carlson was. O’Neill first came up three seasons ago and now has 450 MLB plate appearances.
P.S. 2021 will be his last season before he becomes eligible for arbitration and his salary starts going up. Without more consistent production, he could become a non-tender candidate 12 months from now. Obviously, that would be at the complete other end of the spectrum from what you noted could happen in 2021.
bccran, your support of Randy over O’Neill was not visible in our 2019 community voting. I checked the above thread. Here are the players you voted for at various spots. Note that Randy was chosen at #13 due to others’ votes, as he was not among your favored players through at least #15.
You did not participate in all early rounds, just the following. So you did not comment one way or another about O’Neill at #3. I do see that Thomas appeared on your list ahead of Randy.
Gorman 2
Helsley 78-9-10
Helsley
Nunez
Cedeno11-15
Woodford
Thomas
Edman
Baker
Gingerybccran wrote:
I don’t know if you had O’Neill as a better prospect than Arozarena, 25, but I sure didn’t.
According to this community of prospect voters in 2019 (O’Neill’s last year eligible):
3. O’Neill
13. Arozarenahttps://thecardinalnation.com/forums/topic/2019-st-louis-cardinals-top-prospects-voting/
TexasCard, I agree about waiting to see who is non-tendered by other teams. Could make for some bargains. I am curious, however, which Cardinals you would non-tender to save money. I am not seeing it.
I have neutered the last line of your post, CFICT. You know the rules here about politics, so why you chose to not follow them is beyond me.
TexasCard said:
Absolutely teams have misses in the draft and they have later round hits. But Plummer was a bad miss that shouldn’t have happened. First round misses happen no doubt but this one could have been avoided and left a hole just like 2017 when they didn’t have a early pick. By the way 2015 and 2017 are related because of the individual who ran that 2015 draft.
Every first round miss could have been avoided – with 20-20 hindsight. By definition, teams at the back end have to take more risks than the teams that pick first. Unless you can show me data that the Cardinals have had less success with their first rounders than other teams that typically pick at the back end of the draft, I have no way to make such definitive statements that I cannot back up.
P.S. I am NOT a Chris Correa supporter, but his lone draft was pretty good. That he cheated doing his job and was caught is a different discussion…
Also, it is good to see you back around here, TexasCard…
They will certainly add the two to the dubious list of the ones that got away as if they are far more impactful than they really are.
For me, Sherriff earns admiration for his persistence. Kelly earned a big contract coming off a great World Series for the Red Sox, but has been a disappointment with the Dodgers. He is not in their rotation of trusted relievers, for good reason.
Personally, I hope all the ex-Cardinals do well.
Former Cardinals lefty Ryan Sherriff may get his shot on the big stage…
#Rays have added OF Phillips and LHP Sherriff to roster, dropped Slegers and Alvarado
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) October 20, 2020
Excellent point on the 2015 draft, which overall is one of the team’s best drafts in years. Five major leaguers from one draft class is an exceptional take. But every team has many misses. Every single one. Expecting otherwise is being totally unrealistic. Reminds me of the old line about focusing on Cindy Crawford’s mole.
Goold also raised the Yankees in his Monday chat, but was very careful in his wording. The Yankees “have been mentioned as an intriguing possibility” – without saying who mentioned it. He could be referring to Hummel as far as I can tell…
But if I am Molina’s agent, I am certainly going to stir up news of interest, whether real or imagined – if for no other reason than to serve as leverage in his upcoming negotiations with the Cardinals. It is how the signing game is played.
It can be a real challenge trying to sort out the substance from the noise…
This morning, I have already heard from Mets fans upset about them losing Jarred Kelenic and Travis d’Arnaud and them acknowledging that none of them saw Jacob deGrom coming. This thing happens often across baseball, but each individual team’s fans are understandably hyper-focused on their own team’s misses.
"We all Missed on Randy Arozarena, but @BaseballHQ was Closest"
Reviewing how national analysts viewed emerging star outfielder Randy Arozarena when the outfielder was a prospect with the #stlcards. We at The Cardinal Nation missed, too! (free) https://t.co/tTQaQbvM0P pic.twitter.com/7BRhCLTDNC
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) October 20, 2020
Jeff Luhnow granted an extensive interview to a Houston TV station. He continues to insist he was set up by the Commissioner to take the fall and he had no knowledge of either the electronic sign stealing or the trash can banging.
