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How do we know Clarke was “tearing himself up”?
He blew out his UCL in high school.
As an aside: It is reasonable to guess that extreme use of his arm at that stage of life could be responsible for the pitching arm vascular irregularity as well.
40% of all pitchers have Tommy John surgery at some point, though I get that being younger could be worse over the long haul. Then again, it wasn’t a surprise when he was acquired.
Having TJ that young is an issue though. It suggests extreme usage of the arm at a young age when the structures of the arm and the body as a whole is still in the growth stage. It is now known, or highly suspected, by legit sources, that such extreme use can cause abnormal development. In at least one case I have looked into this abnormal development was shown to result in shoulder architecture which places the arm in a disadvantageous position for tolerating stress without injury. I have previously posted a link to that study.
The 2026 Arizona Fall League rosters include eight #stlcards players assigned to the Peoria Javelinas, headlined by TCN Top 20 prospects Tai Peete, Brandon Clarke and Tekoah Roby. https://t.co/RPL4qfhM6u pic.twitter.com/XasgOnHh1N
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) September 15, 2026
I get it bling, but there are examples of successes, too. A quick Google search indicates that Lucas Giolito, Max Fried and Dylan Cease are among current successful MLB pitchers who had TJS as a teen.
I saw mention of another study that indicated that 57% of TJ surgeries are to teenagers with it trending younger over time. That seems logical as players specialize and push harder at younger ages.
All this says to me that there is a higher risk with Clarke, but we shouldn’t assume anything about his future, either.
I think that last piece you said is what drove my comment, Brian. There almost certainly is a higher risk. And ramp up or not, going out and throwing 102 in your first outing after coming back pushes that risk higher. We don’t have the calculus of how much higher. But a reasonable person would assume it’s higher. And my assumption, supported by some loose evidence, is that he threw that hard without coaching support to make a statement and get noticed.and he did get noticed – a lot. Then the coaches weighed in and he has now backed off that velocity some. Pure speculation, but reasonable speculation based on outcomes. And now I worry that sending him to the AFL puts a spotlight back on him without our coaching staff hovering over him. I reserve the right to say I told you so when he gets hurt after an AFL stint.
Though he was throwing to hitters before that, Clarke’s first official outing was in the FCL on July 11. That was a full two months before his Springfield debut, which was his 10th mound appearance of the season. When did he throw 102? On July 11 or September 11? I only heard about the latter.
To our earlier discussion, Dr. James Andrews is very concerned about the increase of TJS in youths. He made a very interesting comment that the TJS ligament does not mature until age 26 and 80 mph is the max before risk of damage.
So, basically every pitcher’s throwing arm is a surgery waiting to happen.
https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/2101070558821769645
P.S. I wish I could interview him. I would ask if the leg ligament used in the replacement is more mature than the elbow one that went out.
From what I’ve read, the chance of a later needing a second TJS is from between 5% and 15%. There was a furor several years ago in Texas when some HS kids were electing for TJS before it was needed. Since is it almost inevitable, get it out of the way early, went the thinking.
Brian, he had 1 rehab outing at the FCL where he got 5 outs in July before throwing 103 at single A and averaging over 101 about a week later. This is the one I was referring to. Then, I don’t believe he’s thrown 103 since. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it in the AFL.
Since only 1 pitcher can be a starter I am guessing it will be Roby. He is the closest to the majors, although Clarke has great potential also.
jnevel, thanks for clarifying. I didn’t see that.
C27, since Roby hasn’t pitched in any games since his surgery, how would he be ready to throw multiple innings as a starter in the AFL?
RHPs Joseph King and Nolan Sparks have been added to the Peoria AFL roster.
LHP Brandon Clarke will not participate in the AFL and undergo a minor procedure to remove a loose body in his left arm. He will join staff in Jupiter later this month to continue training and be ready… pic.twitter.com/api8pBHSQY
— Cardinals Player Development (@CardsPlayerDev) October 1, 2026
Cut off from the bottom reads:He will join staff in Jupiter later this month to continue training and be ready for instructional camp in January.
Apparently Clarke didn’t even make it to Arizona before jnevel proved to be prescient. I was considering moving him back up my prospect list, but I’m backing off for now.
Hjerpe’s multi year shut down began with loose bodies, but Clarke’s situation has a wrinkle. He has had so much surgery that it seems possible the loose body could be some debris or scar tissue from a past procedure. We should hope so, because there is no structure in a pitching arm that just spontaneously sheds pieces when healthy and uninjured. The bottom line is he has never been able to stay healthy from high school until now, but we can wish him well and hope for the best.
Peoria won its Arizona Fall League opener as #stlcards OF prospect Tai Peete doubled, homered and scored twice. Michael Watson fanned two in a perfect relief inning. https://t.co/s7A26yAr9b pic.twitter.com/SYT0t7BgwG
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) October 4, 2026
Peoria fell to 1-1 in the @MLBazFallLeague after a Sunday loss at Mesa. #stlcards reliever Nolan Sparks threw 1 2/3 scoreless innings, escaping an inherited two-on, one-out jam in the sixth with two strikeouts. https://t.co/ECITBxtl4A pic.twitter.com/zaL2RwaNy4
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) October 5, 2026
Peoria fell to 1-2 in the Arizona Fall League after a Monday loss at Salt River. #stlcards prospect catcher Sammy Hernandez singled, tripled and scored, but reliever Nate Dohm took the loss. https://t.co/JcoA9hxLV3 pic.twitter.com/LoDpCBX516
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) October 6, 2026
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